Thursday, August 3, 2006

FIZZLING CHRIS ?

Chris 4

The only relief for many of us in this inferno of a heat wave comes in the form of a fizzling little tropical system near Puerto Rico. Perhaps my dire predictions of an end-times future with a Category 5 Chris approaching the western Gulf states even scared him off. Yeah, that's probably what happened. It had nothing to do with a mid- and upper-level low that spun over the storm and snuffed off the anti-cyclonic outflow, effectively ending tropical cyclone characteristics. So with great pleasure I can announce that Chris will be a non-starter for the next few days until he can move into a more favorable environment and away from land, and there's a lot of land to get in his way between now and early next week.

For now, the tropics are (mostly) quiet and I hear that Dr. William Gray has lowered his final number of named storms for this season. I'm all about that. If Chris decides to rev up his engines again, I'll be back on it but for now I have a lot of paperwork to do and that is WAY more exciting, don't you think?

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

RAY- Unfortunatley, at least a few more days of yawning in the weather department, but while Chris fizziling is a very good thing for S Florida and the greater antillies it may ultimatley be a bad thing for the gulf coast. Chris has a decent shot(50-50) at regeneration in the gulf and if this occurs the timing of his life cycle may be more conducive for the gulf coast being dealt a major blow. He may be peaking in intensity just before a landfall ie Hurricanes Charley and Camille, as opposed to peaking in the middle of the gulf such as Opal, Lilly, Rita, Katrina, Allen and many others. In conclusion this may look like a great deal, but buyer beware because in the end it may just mean less time for Chris to unleash his peak fury on the fish before mercifuly taking a breather prior to landfall!

E.H. Boston said...

My best bet is that Chris will turn out to be nothing. May go back to T.S., but don't expect another "Katrina." Thankfully.

What a nice break from the heat. Temps are in the 60's right now in Boston and southern New England. Refreshing.

Temps tomorrow night could actually drop into the upper 50's and looking ahead to the end of next week, we could be talking highs in the mid 70's and lows possibly all the way down to the upper 40's here in Boston's coolest suburbs. Early Fall?

terpguy said...

If it can maintain some integrity after passing over Cuba, it will have an opporunity for a long fetch over some very warm GOM water.

No Katrina, but it ain't over 'til it's over.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Dosen't have to be a Katrina to cause extensive devastation. A Charley, or Hugo wouldn't be too shabby. Katrina is an event unparalleled by anything in recorded history, so no it prolly wouldn't be. It won't take long with loop current sst's approacing 90! BTW it may skirt just N of Cuba.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Just perused the new chris discussion out of the nhc, ladies and Gentlemen, RESTART your engines or at least leave your key in the ignition!http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/040300.shtml

Mr. Foot said...

Does anyone else notice there seems to be a disagreement/feud going on in the NHC discussions about this storm. It seems that they change their tune every 12 hours depending on if Franklin or Pasch are posting. One downplays it and wonders aloud if the storm "will ever survive that long" and the very next discussion tries to keep it alive on more conjecture (there may be some TS force winds present so will not downgrade with this package..etc).
Since when do we base the status of the storm on what MIGHT be there we didn't see instead of actual recon data. Does anyone else see this or am I just overfocused and need to get out more?

Anonymous said...

RAY- I believe what they have been doing is taking a borderline TD-TS and deciding to error on the side of caution.

Anonymous said...

RAY- How does this winter look for the E coast Mr. Foot??

Anonymous said...

RAY- Debby will probably be developing between 35-45 degrees longitude within the next 24-36 hrs! Notice the "tumbling" nature of the clouds within this area indicative of tropical cyclogenesis. There is also convection firing up in the vicinity. BTW looks as though Chris may not be revived at all.
DEBBY-TO-BE IR LOOP: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

Eric said...

August 7, 2006

Well, it looks like that area of convection west of the African coast will have to go through a broad area of sheer. If the storms can withstand the sheer, this thing may in fact have a chance to develop into Debbie. We'll see.

Fall like weather is in store for Boston tomorrow and Wednesday with highs in the upper 70's to around 80 with lows in the mid 50's.

After a warm Thursday, this weekend could feature highs in the mid 70's with lows in the upper 40's to lower 50's.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Looks as though there ia a favorable anticyclonic flow aloft to me Eric and it can not be assumed that shear to the N and W of the system will still be present when it arrives.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Debby has finaly apparently formed between 55-6o degrees longitude just east of the winward islands, but I await "official" word from the impending recon flight and the NHC. Take it away Mr. Foot!

Eric said...

Debby could be forming...

Right now the tropical wave is moving west at about 17 mph, and it could be moving into an area of very warm water of about 84 degrees. Steering currents will push it west and this could eventually affect the Gulf Coast.

Like Ray said...take it away Mr. Foot..

Anonymous said...

RAY- God help the northern gulf coast if this makes its way into the gulf because that upper low just west of Florida looks as though it will move out of the way and water temps are 86 degrees or higher through out most of the northern and eastern gulf!! Here is a great site for sst's: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/seaSurfaceTemps.php