What kind of winter can we expect up here in New England and the east coast with a weak to perhaps moderate "El Nino" forming?
I think back to the winter of 2002-2003 and that was a rather snowy winter with the first significant snowfall the day before Thanksgiving with nearly a half a foot widespread. If I am not mistaken we had the infamous President's Day Blizzard from VA to ME with widespread 1-2'+.
Boston picked up SIX FEET, 72 inches of snow that year and some places NW of the city wound up with closer to 90 to 100 inches of snow.
So, whats the deal? Weatherman around here are too scared to go out on a limb. I know you aren't.
RAY- El Nino good, La Nina bad for the Mid Atlantic! Baltimore average seasonal total overall=20.58" ENSO Neutral average=24.29"
El Nino years average=22.84" weak Nino average=21.56" mod Nino average=28.06" strong Nino=19.98"
La Nina years average=17.0" weak Nina average=22.5" mod Nina average=11.74" strong Nina average=13.15
The data suggests that an El Nino on average is favorable for slightly above average snow for Baltiomore, with a moderate El Nino the jackpot!!! La Nina on average favors significantly less than average snow for Baltimore! The most unfavorable ENSO condition for snow in Baltimore appears to be a moderate La Nina.
RAY-Here u go Eric, ENSO doesn't matter much here in Boston: Normal Boston seasonal snowfall overall since 1950=43.03" ENSO Neutral seasonal snowfall average=43.01" El Nino seasonal snowfall average=43.84" weak Nino average=54.6" mod Nino average=47.02 strong Nino average=29.9"
La Nina seasonal seasonal snowfall average=42.77" weak Nina average=51.5" mod Nina average=39.92" strong Nina average=32.03
In conclusion, ENSO doesn't make a difference on average because Boston's mean seasonal snowfall is around 43" regardless of it's state(El Nino is actually is a little over 1" snowier than La Nina). The only trends of significance are that weak ENSOs tend to favor increased snowfall, strong ENSO's tend to favor less and El Nino envents tend to be more variable/extreme than La Ninas thus the snowiest ENSO scenario for Boston is a weak El Nino and the least snowiest is a strong El Nino... Hope this helps clear things up! : ) FYI, this year will ONLY be like 2002-2003 if the PDO is positive and the NAO is negative. Right now I think we are in good shape with the NAO cause of the recurving tropical systems and cooling ssts south of New Foundland. We also look just ok with the PDO cause I think that will be neautral. I don't think the current positive trend will hold cause we are in a positive PDO decadal cycle... Got all that, cause there will be a quiz! LOL : )
RAY- Recurving tropical system analog years: Interesting to note that the last time we had a hurricane season that was dominated by a long wave pattern featuring a mean recurvature inducing trough like this year(1995), the east saw our worst winter ever! That being said,there was more tropical activity that season, the ENSO was opposite (Nina), the PDO still MUST go positive and the NAO negative! Here are the analog years including Boston's mean seasonal snowfall for each respectve season: 1963-64(63.0"), 1969-70(48.8"), 1977-78(85.1" and blizzy of '78), 1995-96(107.6 snowiest ever) and 2006-07(??") All above average, 4 season mean of 60.9". Notice a trend... I think that Atlantic hurricane seasons have a MUCH larger effect on east coast winters than people in the weather world think! In conclusion, positive correlation between # of tropical systems and east coast seasonal snowfall, positive correlation between recurving tropical systems and east coast seasonal snowfall.
Well there is only one way to be sure of all this...come back to this discussion in April and see how you did.
Farmers Almanac is predicting lots of snow, but they flip a coin, so who knows. My uneducated guess would be Boston gets about 50" of snow. Closer to 60-70 if the Nino is weak. Closer to 30-40 if its strong.
One good storm can throw these numbers CRAZY! So if we miss a BLIZZARD by 50 miles to the east, that would of given us 30" of snow, thats a big loss.
RAY- Old Farmer's Almanac by Robert B. Thomas is the one to look at, it predicted the development of the weak El Nino! It says slightly below normal temps, slightly above normal snowfall. I'm goin with around 60" in Boston. Wouldn't suprise me to see 50" though, by the way, Helen is another NEEEEEEEEEXT!!!!
Thats right we are way ahead of you guys down in the South. I'm guessing you are from the south..Mid Atlantic..mr. b.
My town has already seen 35 degrees this past week. Next is to get that 32, then we are watching the foliage..then I'm looking forward to my first flakes in about a month.
Wait a second, read the latest TPC discission on Helen.
THE 18Z GFS RUN MAY BE INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODEL FORECAST TRACKS COULD BE FORTHCOMING. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE OTHER MODELS MAKE A CHANGE SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ONLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...BASED MAINLY ON THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.
Time is definately ticking on us...if its not Helene...is WILL be something else for the east coast. Something we have not seen in years...esp Long Island and New England...NOBODY around here can even imagine the devestation a major hurricane would bring to Newport, RI the Cape...and so many other very populated coastal towns...it would be catastrophic...we don't think it will happen to us, its just a southern problem...we better buck up around here or there will be trouble.
It looks like the storm that will be going through the Great Lakes at this time will be the key player in deciding when and where these two things will meet up.
This is getting very very interesting...closing in on 1AM Sunday morning. Shifting further west with each run...the new one is almost fully out..just a few more minutes.
It looks like the storm will move through the Great Lakes and up through southern Quebec now along about Tuesday the 26th of September...9 long days from now. However, what a shift that was. That storm coming in from the Lakes will likely act as a vacuum and suck up Hurricane Helene at that time...where it sucks it up...anybody's guess at this time. Right now it could be from South Carolina to Nova Scotia/Newfoundland...or out to sea.
It will be interesting to see what the 5AM and 11AM advisories are for tomorrow.
Good night everyone...
Mr. Foot...you better get on this one before we outforecast you. lol
New GFS model recurves Helen like it did with FLO but still one model run said east coast hit. So it's not over just yet. I really want to see what this winter is going to be like. Snowy and Cold? I really do hope so.
Ray- My fears of a moderate-strong el Nino and a +NAO conspiring to spoil this winter seem to be rising : (, but not ready to but into it completley yet.
RAY- Well, this outa cheer u guys up!! : )http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?article=9 Like I said, recurving tropical systems = good winters! Me like!! : )
RAY- He called last year bing a GOF hurricane season and this year more of an east coast year. If you don't think that there will be a Nino than "I have a bridge to sell you"!! Tropical recurvature years = good winters.
Ken is someone who has watched Accuweather forecast since 1983, been a member of Accuweather Premium, and was a weather watcher and weather information collector for 7 years. Kenis someone who remembers Joe’s incredible east coast winter predictions for last year. According to his forecast, the east coast would by blasted by giant snowstorms based on the high hurricane occurrence along with 3 other factors. However, the winter was a terrible disappointment for snow enthusiast, and a financial disaster for east coast ski resorts. Lest we forget, view his 2005-2006 winter outlook: http://www.loonmtn.com/info/winter/0506_forecast.asp. This is who Ken is.
RAY- Well Ken, if you know of a meteorlogist who is right 100% of the time than please let me know cause I would LOVE to meet him!! : ) You don't think that a weak el Nino with a negative NAO sst profile in the Atlantic are favorable factors for the East winter?! I am NOT just going along with him, I am forecasting the same thing. I am going snowy cause I think it will be, not cause he does, but yes, a pro coming out with the same forecast that I have already had for a few weeks does increase my confidence! That being said, nice to meet you Ken and I look foreward to chatting with you. : )
Do not misunderstand me! I realize no meteorologist is right 100 % of the time. However, I have followed Bastardi's forecast for years, he comes no where near Mr. Footes accuracy long or short -term. Meanwhile, Joe also relies on other controversial atmospheric conditions, which, in an article one of his own colleagues blasted. I agree with you that a negative NOA and week El Nino forecast seem to indicate a snowy east coast winter. Anyway, thanks for the welcome and I lets hope to see epic east coast snow storms this year.
RAY- Sorry for the misunderstanding Ken! : ) Regardless of Bastradi's skill level, I think snowy this winter and I think this way not because Bastradi is, my forecast was out a couple weeks before his was. Welcome aboard Ken! : )
44 comments:
Mr. Foot
What kind of winter can we expect up here in New England and the east coast with a weak to perhaps moderate "El Nino" forming?
I think back to the winter of 2002-2003 and that was a rather snowy winter with the first significant snowfall the day before Thanksgiving with nearly a half a foot widespread. If I am not mistaken we had the infamous President's Day Blizzard from VA to ME with widespread 1-2'+.
Boston picked up SIX FEET, 72 inches of snow that year and some places NW of the city wound up with closer to 90 to 100 inches of snow.
So, whats the deal? Weatherman around here are too scared to go out on a limb. I know you aren't.
RAY- El Nino good, La Nina bad for the Mid Atlantic! Baltimore average seasonal total overall=20.58"
ENSO Neutral average=24.29"
El Nino years average=22.84"
weak Nino average=21.56"
mod Nino average=28.06"
strong Nino=19.98"
La Nina years average=17.0"
weak Nina average=22.5"
mod Nina average=11.74"
strong Nina average=13.15
The data suggests that an El Nino on average is favorable for slightly above average snow for Baltiomore, with a moderate El Nino the jackpot!!! La Nina on average favors significantly less than average snow for Baltimore! The most unfavorable ENSO condition for snow in Baltimore appears to be a moderate La Nina.
RAY-Here u go Eric, ENSO doesn't matter much here in Boston: Normal Boston seasonal snowfall overall since 1950=43.03"
ENSO Neutral seasonal snowfall average=43.01"
El Nino seasonal snowfall average=43.84"
weak Nino average=54.6"
mod Nino average=47.02
strong Nino average=29.9"
La Nina seasonal seasonal snowfall average=42.77"
weak Nina average=51.5"
mod Nina average=39.92"
strong Nina average=32.03
In conclusion, ENSO doesn't make a difference on average because Boston's mean seasonal snowfall is around 43" regardless of it's state(El Nino is actually is a little over 1" snowier than La Nina). The only trends of significance are that weak ENSOs tend to favor increased snowfall, strong ENSO's tend to favor less and El Nino envents tend to be more variable/extreme than La Ninas thus the snowiest ENSO scenario for Boston is a weak El Nino and the least snowiest is a strong El Nino... Hope this helps clear things up! : ) FYI, this year will ONLY be like 2002-2003 if the PDO is positive and the NAO is negative. Right now I think we are in good shape with the NAO cause of the recurving tropical systems and cooling ssts south of New Foundland. We also look just ok with the PDO cause I think that will be neautral. I don't think the current positive trend will hold cause we are in a positive PDO decadal cycle... Got all that, cause there will be a quiz! LOL : )
RAY- Recurving tropical system analog years: Interesting to note that the last time we had a hurricane season that was dominated by a long wave pattern featuring a mean recurvature inducing trough like this year(1995), the east saw our worst winter ever! That being said,there was more tropical activity that season, the ENSO was opposite (Nina), the PDO still MUST go positive and the NAO negative! Here are the analog years including Boston's mean seasonal snowfall for each respectve season: 1963-64(63.0"), 1969-70(48.8"), 1977-78(85.1" and blizzy of '78), 1995-96(107.6 snowiest ever) and 2006-07(??") All above average, 4 season mean of 60.9". Notice a trend... I think that Atlantic hurricane seasons have a MUCH larger effect on east coast winters than people in the weather world think! In conclusion, positive correlation between # of tropical systems and east coast seasonal snowfall, positive correlation between recurving tropical systems and east coast seasonal snowfall.
Good research...
Well there is only one way to be sure of all this...come back to this discussion in April and see how you did.
Farmers Almanac is predicting lots of snow, but they flip a coin, so who knows. My uneducated guess would be Boston gets about 50" of snow. Closer to 60-70 if the Nino is weak. Closer to 30-40 if its strong.
One good storm can throw these numbers CRAZY! So if we miss a BLIZZARD by 50 miles to the east, that would of given us 30" of snow, thats a big loss.
We'll see.
RAY- Old Farmer's Almanac by Robert B. Thomas is the one to look at, it predicted the development of the weak El Nino! It says slightly below normal temps, slightly above normal snowfall. I'm goin with around 60" in Boston. Wouldn't suprise me to see 50" though, by the way, Helen is another NEEEEEEEEEXT!!!!
Yup Helene is a goner...NEXT!!!!
Is this the RAY/ERIC comment page. What happened to everyone from year's past? Terpguy? Bucks county? Uncle Rico? MR. FOOT???
Where is everyone.
Things smell a little fishy around here.
RAY- I suspect that they are all lurking until the first snowthreat. They dont wanna play with the big boys Eric! : ) LOL
Looks like the first cold shot of the season is upcoming.
RAY- First? I have already had a few! Hey...wait a minute...ur not Eric!! LOL : )
Thats right we are way ahead of you guys down in the South. I'm guessing you are from the south..Mid Atlantic..mr. b.
My town has already seen 35 degrees this past week. Next is to get that 32, then we are watching the foliage..then I'm looking forward to my first flakes in about a month.
Except Monday is supposed to be 87 degrees here. Craziness.
Yep Southern Pa. Hum what is the GFS doing with Helen? If the GFS is right witch is most likely is not the mid-atlantic would be in a lot trouble.
Wait a second, read the latest TPC discission on Helen.
THE 18Z GFS RUN MAY BE INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODEL
FORECAST TRACKS COULD BE FORTHCOMING. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE OTHER
MODELS MAKE A CHANGE SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS
ONLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...BASED MAINLY ON THE MORE SOUTHERLY
INITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.
A couple more runs could prove interesting.
Ray- Interesting...I STILL say out to sea.
Who knows...
Time is definately ticking on us...if its not Helene...is WILL be something else for the east coast. Something we have not seen in years...esp Long Island and New England...NOBODY around here can even imagine the devestation a major hurricane would bring to Newport, RI the Cape...and so many other very populated coastal towns...it would be catastrophic...we don't think it will happen to us, its just a southern problem...we better buck up around here or there will be trouble.
Not to be a doomsday forecaster or anything...
New GFS model coming out let see what it says.
It looks like the storm that will be going through the Great Lakes at this time will be the key player in deciding when and where these two things will meet up.
This is getting very very interesting...closing in on 1AM Sunday morning. Shifting further west with each run...the new one is almost fully out..just a few more minutes.
It looks like the storm will move through the Great Lakes and up through southern Quebec now along about Tuesday the 26th of September...9 long days from now. However, what a shift that was. That storm coming in from the Lakes will likely act as a vacuum and suck up Hurricane Helene at that time...where it sucks it up...anybody's guess at this time. Right now it could be from South Carolina to Nova Scotia/Newfoundland...or out to sea.
It will be interesting to see what the 5AM and 11AM advisories are for tomorrow.
Good night everyone...
Mr. Foot...you better get on this one before we outforecast you. lol
mr. b...
Thanks for pointing that out...I let this one go a while ago...
RAY- New GFS has it father w turning n JUST e of Florida and then hitn NC, I DONT BUY IT!
I AM GOING TO BED..
Now its showing it going way east of anywhere..maybe a Bermuda Storm again..
ADIOS.
BRING ON THE SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!
New GFS model recurves Helen like it did with FLO but still one model run said east coast hit. So it's not over just yet. I really want to see what this winter is going to be like. Snowy and Cold? I really do hope so.
Ray- My fears of a moderate-strong el Nino and a +NAO conspiring to spoil this winter seem to be rising : (, but not ready to but into it completley yet.
Weather right now = BORING
Your Telling me.
RAY- Well, this outa cheer u guys up!! : )http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?article=9
Like I said, recurving tropical systems = good winters! Me like!! : )
I like that too...now we just gotta wait 2+ more months till we see that...until then..
THE BORING WEATHER CONTINUES
If you believe The Accuweather winter oulook put out by the "Alarmist Forecast King", Joe Bastardi, I have a bridge to sell you!
RAY- He called last year bing a GOF hurricane season and this year more of an east coast year. If you don't think that there will be a Nino than "I have a bridge to sell you"!! Tropical recurvature years = good winters.
I'm with Ray.
Who is Ken?
RAY- ????
Boston weather right now...coolish and ... BORRRRRRRRRRRING
Ken is someone who has watched Accuweather forecast since 1983, been a member of Accuweather Premium, and was a weather watcher and weather information collector for 7 years. Kenis someone who remembers Joe’s incredible east coast winter predictions for last year. According to his forecast, the east coast would by blasted by giant snowstorms based on the high hurricane occurrence along with 3 other factors. However, the winter was a terrible disappointment for snow enthusiast, and a financial disaster for east coast ski resorts. Lest we forget, view his 2005-2006 winter outlook: http://www.loonmtn.com/info/winter/0506_forecast.asp. This is who Ken is.
RAY- Well Ken, if you know of a meteorlogist who is right 100% of the time than please let me know cause I would LOVE to meet him!! : ) You don't think that a weak el Nino with a negative NAO sst profile in the Atlantic are favorable factors for the East winter?! I am NOT just going along with him, I am forecasting the same thing. I am going snowy cause I think it will be, not cause he does, but yes, a pro coming out with the same forecast that I have already had for a few weeks does increase my confidence! That being said, nice to meet you Ken and I look foreward to chatting with you. : )
Do not misunderstand me! I realize no meteorologist is right 100 % of the time. However, I have followed Bastardi's forecast for years, he comes no where near Mr. Footes accuracy long or short -term. Meanwhile, Joe also relies on other controversial atmospheric conditions, which, in an article one of his own colleagues blasted. I agree with you that a negative NOA and week El Nino forecast seem to indicate a snowy east coast winter. Anyway, thanks for the welcome and I lets hope to see epic east coast snow storms this year.
Welcome to the site Ken. Nice to have someone on this site who kinda knows what he is talking about.
The season is here as I've already got a cold...
Bring on the Snow!
Major severe weather outbreak over the central plains this evening. Mr. Foot where are you?
RAY- Sorry for the misunderstanding Ken! : ) Regardless of Bastradi's skill level, I think snowy this winter and I think this way not because Bastradi is, my forecast was out a couple weeks before his was. Welcome aboard Ken! : )
Ray- I got you beat Eric, I have a bad case of pnemounia and a 105* fever! : ( : (
Thanks guys!
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