Sorry I've been away all..busy with grades, school, planning trips, trying to reduce my carbon footprint, changing diapers, the usual.I have to get over some major deadlines in the next 2 weeks, then somewhere along the way I will post my winter forecast and analysis. It will take a while to organize into a succinct manner backed up with solid data so be patient and you'll be rewarded!Peace.
RAY- I think that it will be the star of a lovely friendship indeed! (for powderhounds, that is.)
Foot Speaks! Snow sounds lovely. Some crazy weather is still on going in the heartland of the country. Heading towards me and Foot next.
I am getting really sick of this weather. You think it has cooled down for good and then you look at the extended forecast and highs around 80 are still in there even after lows in the 30's. This is getting old.I hope its not a sign of whats to come for the winter. That was like how last winter was. You'd get a good cold week with some snow and you think you turned the corner and winter is coming, but then 4 days later it was back to 65.Bring on the winter.
Good to see you're blogging again, Foot!
RAY-Patience Eric. : )
What a COLD morning!Lows all over the place are way down in the 30's. Its one of those mornings where you don't want to get out of your bed because its so comfortable. Really feeling like fall here.BUT highs Tuesday will be back in the mid 70's and Wednesday will be back to around 80. Mr. Foot, please tell me, winter will def. make it this year.
What do you think my chances are that the Red Sox will play tomorrow, Sunday...gametime 2:05 pm?Will they get it in?
COLD is really starting to build in Canada ATTM. Looking at the GFS it is starting its progression towards the south and could be invading the US within 120-160 hours, approximately one week.
Ray- Eric, I am not a fan of forecasts containing the words "GFS" and "120-160 hours", but I'll keep my fingers crossed! : )
Its in an Accuweather headline today...
Looking at it today, it has more pronounced cold all the way towards Kansas and Missouri with a possible SNOWSTORM in Minnesota come the 14th, a week from tomorrow. Shows highs in the 30's to around 40 for much of the Great Lakes and Chicago, Minneapolis, Green Bay, etc could be seeing their first SNOWS of the season!!!Air moderates greatly as it heads towards Southern New England so no Boston snow just yet.
Ray- Latest models currently have this storm of HISTORIC PROPORTIONS!! We shall see, I bet it ends up at least a little tamer.
SNOWSTORM LIKELY FOR UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES!!!Storm info...cutting up through the Great Lakes bringing down some very cold ARCTIC air!As its cutting through the Lakes, no snow for the east coast.SNOWS??Up to 6" in some spots..
RAY- Just as I suspected, models now backing off and noone will see 6". 18z GFS keeps the storm in Canada! LOL! : ) Maybe it will help build the crucial Canadian snowpack though?! : )
I'm sticking to it...SNOW from Minneapolis to Green Bay to Marquette, to northern lower Michigan. Up to 3" in the luckiest spots. The Appalachians may see a nice dusting of snow as well. Places WILL see snow.
RAY- Eric not to be argumentative, but you are not "sticking to it". You backed down from 6" to 3" already. : ) Localized spots MAY see "3, but I doubt anything more. Severe weather potential has greatly diminished as well. The most significant aspect of this storm will be the cold air. NEEEEEEEXT!
Fine, I'm sticking to it...someone in Minnesota will see 6" of SNOW. Now lets see.
RAY- My apologies Eric, seems you may been correct, but in the wrong state : ) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/snow-info2.shtml
RAY- sorry wrong link. Here is the right one: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=108752
Nope nope nope...NE Minnesota, the Arrowhead WILL see 6"+ of snow!
RAY- Well, Michigan will as well.
Yeah they will, but my wicked early prediction before all these WSW's was wicked GOOD...ALMOST GREAT LOL.
2 FEET of snow for the UP!!!WOW!!!!!!!I'm heading to upstate NY, Utica, actually Clinton to go college scouting..Hamilton...this weekend and it could snow up there...we'll see.
RAY- Upto 30" on the UP!!!: ) My guess is the highest will prolly be around 20", very localized.
Who cares about the u.p. of Michigan?
I dunno...the people who live in the up of michigan..
I think everyone that reads this is from Baltimore to Boston. It snows for like 6 months straight in Michigan. It was cool to have an early snow for them, but for the most part it will now snow until April for them. They get tired of snow come January, and we here in the NE are reall just getting started. I don't want Mr. Foot to stretch himself too thin trying to forecast for up there too. He already covers hundreds of miles from Va. to Maine.
RAY- I CARE ABOUT THE STORM OVER MICHIGAN!!! If you don't care don't read it, I could care less, but the fact of the matter is that storms like that one are going to have a huge impact on our winter!! People from "Baltimore to Boston" have a much increased chance of a good winter if there is a decent antecedent snow pack put down to the N and W of us during autumn, the opposite is true if there is not (see '05-'06). This Canadian snow pack creates a very favorable evrionment referred to as a "Cryosphere", which allows arctic air masses to strengthen and prevent winters like last season. It creates a negative feedback if you will. Cryosphere generates cold, cold generates snow, which would greatly increase the odds of a negative AO winter. In conclusion, for those of you who "don't care about the Michigan storm", perhaps you could cast a side your porocial view in hopes of not being entirley ignorant of our winter prospects here in the I95 corridor.
Odds are that 6" isn't going to last more than a few days, so to think it will create snow pack now is silly. If it was late November you have an arguement, but to think this 6" will last is laughable. Where it snowed out the last few days the temps will be in the upper 50's come Monday, and even reach 60 by next week. I think you are just getting a bit too excited and hopeful too early. Don't worry though, we all want a white winter here. A storm like this would be great around Thanksgiving.
It was 21" for buffalo.
Yeah, that is amazing. Nice to be near the lakes and stuck in a snow band like that for hours. 21" in Buffalo, but it you drive an hour south, flurries if that. That 21" will probably melt in a week with the sun angle and temps approaching 60 by next Wednesday.
RAY- True that the snow in the US will melt away, but what is "silly" and "laughable" is you not thinking that any of the snow that this puts down in Manitoba is going to melt off right away! Notice I said that "the Canadian snowpack creates a cryosphere", I know very well that the US snowpack will melt, but regardless of how much of it melts and even if it did in Canada as well, this is the type of pattern that we want to see to create a cryosphere in "November".
RAY- I think Mr. Foot might release his forecast this wknd. : )
Exactly, late November. We all want snow, but I think this is just a little too early to matter. I hope Mr. Foot unleashes his Winter preview soon.
RAY- FWIW, I meant Ontario, not Manitoba. It is not to early to matter in Canada, how do you expect the Canadian snow pack build up by late Nov, is the ENTIRE country going to magicaly go from bare ground to deep snow in one week...I doubt it. I do see your point though, it is early yet. You seem to know your stuff! : )
Hey..I'm in the good old town of UTICA, NY tonight and we are going to get SNOW here tonight..I've seen accumulation forecasts from nothing to 3" in downtown Utica, which is BOMBED OUT...there is just nobody here. Plain and simple..clean clean streets though...I haven't seen any litter at all. A lot different than Boston.Anyway, a county to the north of us is going to see 5-10" of snow tonight!!!They're under a Lake Effect Snow Warning...the northern part of the county I'm in is under an Advisory for 3-6" of snow..all localized I presume. These lake bands are crazy...way different than a good old New England Nor'easter where missing it is one town getting 22" and the other 18". With these things one town in NY could get 22" and the next NOTHING! Buffalo on Friday...a 15 mile swath of heavy snow.Anyway...I can't wait to go back to Boston tomorrow..Upstate is just too much for me...I can't take the accents!!!
RAY- Welcome back Eric!
Still in hibernation. But will awaken in November!
Eagerly awaiting the winter update. I think accuweather.com is doing theirs this week actually. It will be cool to compare them.
No snow in Utica...highest accumulation I saw was 1". NWS was wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy off with the 5-10" forecast.
RAY- Joe Bastradi of Accuweather has already gone on record as saying that "the coming winter will be a cousin of '02-'03 and '77-'78", hopefully its a close family! lol : )
Here is an early look at Winter 2006-2007 from 2 different perspectives:http://www.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/pressroom/prs/wx/wx_254.htmhttp://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2716.htm
RAY- NOAA tends to "broadbrush" el Ninos, and FWIW, NOAA had a similar forecast before '02-'03. : ) I guess Bastradi is not the only one who knows how to bust, eh?
Its approaching mid-late October and still no winter forecast from Mr. Foot or Bastardi....Its the 16th...Wow, I sound like a disgruntled teacher lol.
RAY- Bastradi's is out, but it is only available to paying customers right now. He is calling for 150% of normal snowfall for the east, with the "sweetspot" focused on DC. This is VERY similar to my forecast, which I released about 1 month ago.
Bring on the snow!!!!
Only for paying customers...How much is it to subscribe to Accuweather Pro...
It's free for me!!! yeaaa. I intern at a news station. Anyways, I just got a good laugh as I looked back over the dat from 2002-2003. The total temperature year departure for the southern pa area was -8.2. And snowfall was 55.8". But looking at the NWS forecast it looks like this years. Warm, was 2002-2003 prediction but in turn it was cold. Take a look for yourselfs.http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/images/winteroutlook121202b.jpg
I just looked back at early years on Mr. Foot's site. I miss the fun chats with everyone. Mr. Foot, and everyone else. Come back.....
Me too...What happened to Linda bucks county, uncle rico, terpboy/guy, who else...andy southern york county, and many others...come back please...Last winter wasn't like the winter before on this site. Last winter was a post a month..the winter before was 2 a day. Wow..that was fun. Hope this winter is that exciting on this page...i loved it.talk to you guys latahhhhhhhhhh.
RAY- You guys should join easternuswxforum.com, many pro mets post there, it is incredible. Terp guy posts there, he is a pro met. Kocin (once), Walt Drag from Box, and MEKSTER from Box posts there as well. A met from Mount Holy posts there, most are from the MA. Eric, Bastradi says 125% norm snowfall for Bos, which is about 54". My outlook calls for 60"
Here is Bastardi's forecast for winter 2006-2007 posted yesterday:http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=9
Seems like Boston is on the line of 100% of normal and 125%. If I am not mistaken, Boston was on smack dab in the middle of 150%+ last year by Bastardi's forecast.What happened? Boston was BELOW average with 39" of snow. I take these forecasts with a "grain of salt."
BTW...birds around these parts are leaving in large numbers..pretty cool. I have been seeing large large flocks leaving Boston for the past couple days. Almost looks like Day After Tomorrow type migration. We'll see what that means.
I like the pattern we are in. Stormy. If we can get the cold air. BINGO! Classic Nor'easters. I can see it already. Well I hope to see it at least.
All the forecasts were calling for a bad hurricane season too...we see how that turned out.
Right now I don't know what to beleave. I just want Snow!
RAY- One of the best and most respected mets on easternuswx is calling for 150"+ for SNE, slightly above normal snow for the MA. Temps average normal to 1* below in both areas. THIS GUY IS NOT A "Bastradi". Another good met comes out with his outlook tonite, I'll let you guys know.
RAY- I meant to post 150%+ of normal for Boston, my bad!lol! : )
What about southern pa. I tried to get on the Easternweather site. I registered but I can't post anything.
I tried to post to...but i couldn't register..
RAY- It takes about 6 hrs, they need to look over your registration first.
I did this 2 days ago.
RAY- Something must be wrong, try to contact them. If you would like let me know exactly what is going wrong and I can PM one of the moderators. BTW, the other top met on the board said the same thing, above average snow on east coast, with SNE and interior MA in the bullseye. This guy NAILED last year's CRAPPY winter for those who want to imply that he is a Bastradi! : )
Interior MA is in the bullseye???What type of bullseye..how much snow would we be talking about.
RAY- Inerior middle atlantic and southern new england in general. 150%+ of normal snowfall in these "jackpot" areas. Temps normal to slightly below. January should be the best month, with blizzard potential around the time of the Jan '05 blizzard. Looks like they are going for a '04-'05/'00-'01 hybrid type of winter.
RAY- Sorry, 130%+, my mistake. Welcome aboard easternuswx Mr. B! : )
I'm not a math major...so 100% of normal is 43" for Boston. 130" would divide that by 3 and add to 43". So a 1/3 of our snowfall would be about 15", give or take...so this guy is forecasting 58"+ of snow for the Boston metro area?
150%+ would be 43" + 22" = 65"+!
Yes finally on the easternwx board. I made my prediction for central pa. Andy, from where I am standing winter is lokking good for us.
OK...I'm going with this..WINTER 2006-2007BOSTON SNOWFALL HIGHLIGHTSFirst Snowstorm: early DecemberSnowiest Month: January (Mainly mid Jan. --> on w/most snow coming from 1-2 storms)WHITE CHRISTMAS: N&W of Boston by 25+ miles...60-80%Inside the Rt. 128 Corridor...30-50%Boston...15-25%S and SE of Boston (Cape and S.S.)...Less than 15%LAST SNOWSTORM...mid to late March SNE...Late March/early April NNE.OVERALL SNOWFALL...Boston, MA...45-55"Worcester, MA...70-80"Concord, NH...85-95"Cape Cod, MA...25-35"NEW YORK CITY...25-35"PHILADELPHIA...20-30"WASHINGTON DC...15-25"BALTIMORE...25-35"YORK, CO. PA...45-55"The further inland the more snow basically. Coastal areas will see more rain as rain/snow lines will have to be delt with every single storm. Many times areas along the coast will get snow accumulation on the onset or end of the storm...many accumulating snows along the coast will be washed away in the same storm.
RAY- I think that you are too low for Boston, but other than that it looks good. I have 60" for Boston and 75-80" for our area Eric. I think NYC just makes 40" AGAIN! FWIW, noone said 150%+, they were both 130%+, I apologize for the error.
Eric what about me in lonely old greencastle, pa :(JK. But no really what do you think?Ray, I am loving Easternwx. I posted my winter outlook for central pa. Whats your memeber name. Mine of course is Mr. B.
RAY- 40/70 Benchmark... good to have you aboard! Foot is killing me...where is the forecast!! : ( lol
Mr. Foot...you're killing us..
What are the prospects of seeing our first flakes of snow around Boston's NW suburbs this weekend?Looks like the Friday storm could have some snow with it for NNE. Mostly rain for SNE. But could there be some cold air Friday night for some snow here?
RAY- May be a couple flakes at the end...don't hold ur breath. I think that this might be the first time that we make 100 comments before Foot starts a new blog! : (
Number 80...Foot where are you..just let us know you're still alive.
100 is nothing...a couple years ago...I remember it got to around 160 or 170 in a the time period of about 24 hours...Number 81
RAY- Yea...well, I've only been posting here since last March. I suppose it gets that busy before the type of storms that we are gonna see this winter. : )
Mr. Foot...6 days left in October..
Ok..so channel 4 here has a high here next Wednesday the 1st of November of nearly 70 degrees!!!Accumweather has a high of 52/30 and TWC is very similar.What is up with that?!!
RAY- Channel 4 is just chasing the carrot that the GFS has been dangling on the end of a stick, which is incapable of being had.
I'm not the biggest fan in the world of Ken Barlow.GO BACK TO MINNEAPOLIS!!!
RAY- If the guy hasn't figured out the trend by now than there isn't much hope for him. lol Lower 60s tops during the "moderation", before returning to the freezer.
Mr. Foot, could you at least give us a date to when we could expect your next post?
RAY- I am very dissapointed and suprised that Foot isn't making a post on the storm tmw, there is gonna be some widespread wind damage!
Foot is busy with his little ones and grading papers. He'll arrive when the cold does. Hopefully that will be soon!
RAY-DT has just implied that his rough analog is '63-'64, and Joe D'Aleo is going with roughly a '02-'03 type of year! : ) My early call is lookn' good! Looks like Bastradi has some company this year Ken, and he actually has one of the TAMER forecasts.
I was watching Bastardi's forecast with Hubble-telescope-like scrutiny. Since he has some company this year, I will lower the magnification a notch.
I guess Ken Barlow was right a week ago. Tomorrow, Halloween, will be nearing 70 degrees!!!Wednesday will be much the same with highs in the mid 60's!!!I have cousins coming from good old London, England on Wednesday, and mid 60's is not November weather. However, highs this weekend should be in the lower to mid 40's with lows in the lower to mid 20's. Thats more like it for Boston in November. Still no real sign of snow yet. We are still waiting...for snow and Foot's winter forecast. Hopefully its here before April.
Getting cold around these parts...highs around 40 on Saturday.Highs today were pushing 70!
Where is everybody?Cold times ahead for the east. Then it looks like the entire lower 48 is in for a wicked mild first half of November. Snow line with every storm could be confined to southern Canada!!! This is through the next 10-14 days, excluding the next 4-5 days where there will be Lake Effect snow is Upstate and Ohio/PA. Other than that, could this be El Nino coming into play with big storms and all the cold for snow up in Canada or am I jumping the gun and its only November 2nd...let me know when its okay to hit the panic button.
RAY-Ur jumping the gun, Nino is just now coming out of the designation of weak. The pattern will reload the latter part of the month. One thing is for sure...there is tumble weed blowing across this damn site!!
Ya it should be interesting to see what happens when the MJO goes into phase 6 after the 15th. TUMBLE WEDDDDDD!!!!!!!!!!
This site is on hiatis, haha. Once a threat of snow is in the forecast, hopefully the man will awaken. We all miss foot!!!
RAY-Mr.B, the MJO is a non factor right now, it has misteriously dissapeared...kinda like Mr. Foot! lol : )
100 Comments yea. Ray, yes it has dissapeared for now but it will reorganize.
May be a stupid question, but what is the MJO...and what does it mean for the 15th and beyond?Foot...I hope this doesn't turn out to be a winter like last winter with only two or three posts total...It would be a shame...
It sure would. This was the best site on the net. I know it takes a lot of time, and that you have a whole family now, but we all know that you are looking at snow storms and snow potential anyway, so please post your thoughts. Snow is a drug for all of us, and you kind of are too!
eric,MJO is the Madden-Julian oscillation. It's a 30-60 or 40-50 day oscillation. Half Convective, half suppression. Basically when we have convection phases like we will see after the 15th, we get colder and stormy. Suppression is warmer and drier. Since the MJO is falling apart right now it won't matter till it reforms.
Mr. Foot..How bout this...just post a little comment on this comment site, just so we know that you didn't forget the website.
Its been a month and a half and a lot has happened since September 23...Almost everyone has had their first frosts and freezes..The Fall Foliage season has come and gone..what a great season it was!!!The amazing Friday the 13th Freak Buffalo Blizzard with 22"+ of snow downtown completely shutting down the city.2-3 Upper Midwest significant SNOWSTORMS.Current and First MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK of cold...lows this AM in Boston's suburbs...UPPER TEENS!!!HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEKEND in OH, PA and NY with many favorite areas receiving 12"+And a lot of other stuff in between.COME BACK PLEASE.
Foot is MIA. We need to send in some troops with a computer to find him!!!
Foot, what do we have to do to get you back on this site...Are you telling me that you NEVER check your website and see what the past 107 comments have been about...NEVER.I find that pretty hard to believe.
I use to love coming here to check out forecasts, what is going on? I would love an update. Is this going to be a snowy winter for Baltimore Metro?
RAY- Foot...just let us now ur alive man!!!
Ok, I hate to say this, but this is just starting to get plain rude...Please just take 20-30 seconds and post something anything...it doesn't have to be about anything in particular...Just let us know you haven't moved out of the country!!I'm going to give this site another week..and then sorry to say...ADIOS!
Ray...you wouldn't happen to know of any good websites/blogs for our area would you??? At least until Mr. Foot decides to come out of hibernation...I found sneweather.blogspot.com, but its just as bad as this site, hasn't been updated since late September too.
use the easternuswx.com
RAY- Yup, easternuswx.com, and theweatherservice.com is good as well.
Wow, easternuswx.com is an awesome site...but I'm not ready to give up on this one just yet...
ANDY..SOUTH YORK COUNTY. I'm calling you out!!!Its NOVEMBER.......almost mid November.Lets get the whole old gang back together and Footy will have to come back...Maybe his computer broke or something...ANYONE out there know if the poor guy is all right.
BTW, what was up with highs around 70 today in Boston. Okay..officially 65-69, but the bank thermometer read 72 when I drove by...Its wicked warm out there still...mid 60's still...ANY COLD coming to the NE???????
RAY- Not with the evil twins working in tandem, the negative PNA/PDO and the positive EPO, the ONLY thing that is saving us from a repeat of Jan '06 is the NAO.
Whens it going to snow????????? Gosh it freak'n 65 out. EWWWW!! Hopefully I get some snow sometime in early to mid December. I might go crazy!!!!!!!!!If not.
Am I reading that Dundalk temperature right???Is it late August or the middle of November?Nearing 80 on November 10th is NOT a good sign for a healthy winter. Just my opinion...This weather pattern is whacked!
Eric, Its ok. As long as we get the warm temperature's out of the way now. This should make you happy. http://berkswintercast.tripod.com/id18.html (Below)The forecast shows warm now but then the cold and snow to lock in Mid-December.As for the style of the winter (how it progresses). After a cold October, November should be a touch warmer particularly as we get to the middle of the month…(Right on track so far.) December can see a mean switch to cold with a good shot at pre-christmas snowstroms… January might waffle a bit, I can see us getting a January Thaw in there (BUT NOTHING LIKE LAST YEAR's)... but by the time we get to February to steal a line from my real job “the gloves are off” and winter’s wrath could be really felt to the conclusion of winter into April… I believe this is when we are at risk for our biggest storms ala 2002-2003… and after all is said in done parralels will be drawn to 1992-1993 and 1957-1958 (both late winters), we get to the same place we just get there diifferent ways.
RAY- Mr. B, that sounds like the Accuwx forecast. They are also stressing those same late winter analogs.
I am almost ready to give Foote the "Boot".
RAY- Ken, I can't blame ya.
Ray, I believe we all have shown much loyalty. Even, now I hesitate to think negative of Mr. Foot (hence the obvious misspelled name). However, as the winter season draws near, I believe we all are anxious to read his expert opinion. Perhaps, he is having personal difficulties, which take precedence over his site participation. For that reason I will linger awhile longer. As for temps in the Central Southern Tier of NY, it does not look promising for really cold air here through the 26th of Nov. In fact, it will probably be warmer on the 26th than the 18th.
I beg to differ...in one week..the 18th..its gonna be C-O-L-D across the north/eastern half of the country. Highs in the 30's Upstate, and New England...40's Mid Atlantic...then around Thanksgiving we will moderate a tad...40's NE...50's Mid Atlantic...then the HAMMER WILL FALL...back to the deep freeze in early December.Snow???Too early to speculate now, but when you go into the deep freeze, chances of snow obviously INCREASE.Patriots right now...I'm nervous.
Eric,I will have to stick to warm side of normal for next week. If there are 30's in NYS it will be confined to the northern half of. My location (2-minute walk from PA boarder) low 40's is as cold as it gets during the day and warmer after Thanksgiving. Moreover, there will be no prolonged or major dips in the jet stream for the next 15 days or so. I agree with you about the after Thanksgiving warm-up, especially with the zonal flow of the jet stream during that time.
Busy but I will be back on-line by December. Here's to a snowy winter! Hope all are doing well!
Been so warm lately so I haven't been able to smell any hint of early snow for any of us. I will be back on the wagon by 12/1. By then we can only hope to at least see a flake or two somewhere in the extended forecast if not in the air:) P.S. With a 4 month old at home and a promotion at the office I haven't had much computer time! But as the temps drop and snow is possible my eyes will be on the radar. If something arises early I will be right here all over it!
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