Tuesday, November 14, 2006

SOMEWHERE MY LOVE...

Is a winter forecast you've all been so patiently waiting for, along with an apology for my unnecessarily extended absence from this site. I am sorry to all those who have been posting comments and gotten no response. You are true weather troopers and please do not lose faith, as we all know winter is rapidly approaching. What I can say for now about this winter, at least for the I-95 corridor from DC to NYC is what I've been telling students and faculty at my school when they ask: Most of your snow this winter will come in two big storms... one in January, one in February. For those of you outside I-95 who justifiably demand a higher quality forecast, it will come, but not before Thanksgiving.

For what it's worth, here are the reasons for the recent absence:
1. Mid-October: Pizza Kit Fundraising Sale at my school for which I was the coordinator
2. Late-October: Formal classroom observation by administration (requires many many hours of prep time and generally suspension of all family and extra-curricular activities)
3. Early November: First ever Adventure Club trip to Hollywood, California for 3 days, 3 nights, for which I am the Club Advisor.
4. Recently: Homecoming Dance, Pizza Kit Delivery Day (we had 1200 to process) and now the school greenhouse is entering it's winter planting mode for Spring, requiring many more hours of indoor work, prep and management.

Not to forget there are 2 wonderful little Foots running underfoot, a three-year old and a alomst 1-year old who is just on the verge of walking and talking. So again please understand I still deeply care about the weather, especially winter, but the tasks in front of forecasting are larger than ever, so I have to piecemeal my time more than ever. Over the Thanksgiving holiday I plan to complete my full winter overview, and will look forward to our rousing discussions as we launch into the 2006-07 winter.

Sincerely,
Mr. Foot

73 comments:

Anonymous said...

RAY- I think that I speak for everyone when I say that it is great to hear from you, can't wait for the forecast! : )

Mr.B said...

Good to hear from you.

Newton said...

Welcome Back, Mr. Foot.

terpguy said...

14 Nov

Welcome back!

I feel honored that you picked my birthday for your return!

TG

Anonymous said...

Welcome back!

Just in time...1-3" of snow in St. Louis tomorrow night...SNOW in MO, southern IL, KY, TN?!!!

While Boston is in the mid 60's tomorrow and again Thursday. Go figure.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Mr. Foot, my birthday is Thu Nov 16, I hope you speak on mine as well! lol : )

Ken said...

Welcome back Mr. Foot!

A big thank you for providing information on your absence.

Julee said...

WOW! No wonder this site is interesting! A BIG bunch of Scorpios! My birthday is November 13th (TerpBaby we're almost twins!).

Mr. Foot, I have been observing some interesting "signs" since August. I'm not sure know what they mean though, if anything.
Yellowjackets which grow pugnacious before they hive in late September/ October were almost non-existant this year. They tried to build a hive between two boards on my porch in August and that's the last I've seen of them. Anywhere.
My bunny (who lives inside) grew a THICK, thick coat in late August.
The hemlock trees are heavily LADEN with tiny cones.
Ladybugs have been everywhere lately (a sign of a harsh winter according to some random weather guy I saw on TV).
BIG crop of hickory and black walnuts --squirrels are going crazy trying to bury them all.
Could any of these presage a cold, snowy winter?
PLEEEEEEEEASE??????

Anonymous said...

Linda Bucks County says welcome back also. Looking forward to winter and possibly some great snow storms. Really getting sick of warm weather.

Anonymous said...

Linda: Forgot to say hi to everyone.

Anonymous said...

Ray, check out this site...

wxsne.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

Pretty decent...been blogging for a long time.

Anonymous said...

E.H. Boston- It is official. Check out the Accuweather headline...possible EASTERN VA to SNE SNOWS early next week!!!!

Praise the snow gods.

Anonymous said...

E.H. Boston- Yes, its 68 degrees here in Boston right now...lost count, but I think its day 4 or 5 of 60+ temps up here.

SNOW NEXT WEEK?!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Welcome back Mr. Foot! I smell snow. I am glad it has been warm lately just because it always seems like we go from one extreme to another. I can't wait to see the "possible" flip side of things. December 5th has been a good snow day for many of us during the last 4 year period, 2 of 4 produced snow, here's to another! We are overdue for a nice early snow in my opinion, so why not in November!

Anonymous said...

11/16/06 - Rich, any thoughts about El Nino / La Nina in the upcoming months? I have read conflicting news stories. Thanks.

Ed - ETHS

E.H. Boston said...

HOWEVER...WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN OCEAN STORM LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALL THE MODELS BASICALLY
AGREE UPON A STRONG PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. AFTER THAT THOUGH THE MODELS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON TRACK AND TIMING. THE 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN
NOW HAS SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOSTON TO
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. THE UKMET LOOKS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR BUT MAY BE A
DAY LATER BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CUTOFF TO THE SOUTH.
THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FURTHER OUT TO SEA THAN THE
OPERATIONAL RUN. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z CANADIAN HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
THE COAST WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE STORM OUT TO SEA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
BEING ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FROM BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. IF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAKES IT INTO
OUR REGION...IT WILL PROBABLY BE RAIN ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
WITH WINDS BLOWING IN OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN. IF IT MAKES IT
ANY FURTHER WEST THOUGH IT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR WET
SNOW.

Whats going on??

E.H. Boston said...

Ray..check this out...the Canadian computer model..

Here's a link

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg

If it doesn't work go to google then type in canadian forecast model and it is like the first choice...

This thing is bringing measurable stuff in here in the late late Mon-Tue time period...

Its in SI, so precip amounts are in mm...I am seeing anywhere from 5-10 mm of snow out of this for interior SNE according to this computer model...whats that 3-6" olde english...

Will be interesting to see this tomorrow..

CYA

E.H. Boston said...

If you try to use the link..MAXIMIZE this comment box, so its not cut off...it should work..if not..tell me..

Anonymous said...

RAY- First of all SNE people, we are NOT going to see snow...here fishy fishy fishy fishy, second, this Nino will peak at about +1.4 tri-monthly,solid-high end moderate. If it goes any higher, which is possible, we are all f*****.

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Hate to be a bad sport, but I am officially putting in the white towel for this winter. This mornings low in Boston was around 70.

ITS NOVEMBER 17th!!!

Dewpoint this morning...mid-upper 60's. Ridiculous.

Anyway..consider any snow/cold we get this winter a blessing...

THANKS EL NINO..

Anonymous said...

RAY- Eric...you do realize that this el Nino is presently weak...right?? The mild pattern is due to the +EPO inducing a Pacific fire hose, patience, this winter will be worth the wait. Blocking should return the latter half of Dec, giving up on winter because of a mild Nov 17th is nothing short of ludicrous, Nov '02 and '93 was very mild as well.

Anonymous said...

ERIC-Don't mind my few fits during the "winter" months. They happen during boring times like these.

Its absurd to think one 68 degree November day will affect the upcoming winter one way or another.

One funny thing is that in the Globe today, they showed a cherry tree in full blossom down on the Common and the Frog Pond, looked exactly like what the name suggests a pond.

Anonymous said...

ERIC-Check out bostonglobe.com and click on the front page and you'll see Spring in Boston.

Baseball and lacrosse practices start this Monday...jk

We are back to normal today.

Julee said...

p.s. Mr. Foot

You do NOT have to apologize to us for your absence. Your web page is a GIFT to us. A gift of your time and your knowledge (and very often, your patience). Whenever you have the time to wrap and present it, we will graciously accept.

Anonymous said...

ERIC-Still waiting on that first flake/flurry...Last year was Oct. 29th. We actually got 1.5" of snow that day.

Year before that was Nov. 12th. That was a 6.5" snowstorm.

Ironically, our earliest snowfalls, in 2001-2002 winter, we had our first flakes on Oct 8th. That lead up to one of the most disappointing Boston winters EV-A-H!

WINTER 2006-2007...

NOVEMBER 17th NOT GONNA HAPPEN
NOVEMBER 18th..and waiting.

Mr.B said...

Intill there is a snow threat I am going to ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.

Anonymous said...

I was looking at some weather forum's this afternoon, and saw that people in Savanna, Ga and Cahrleston, SC saw some snow and sleet! That is amazing! Even if it was Jan. 31, it would still be amazing. Too bad this storm isn't going to ride up the coast and bring us NE people snow!

Anonymous said...

ERIC-IT will be coming up the coast, but give us rain

Anonymous said...

I heard this morning that Orlando Fl had snow flakes mixed in with the rain yesterday-that is unheard of for Novemeber

Anonymous said...

ERIC- "A rare weather event occurred on Tuesday as snow and sleet mixed with rainfall across parts of the Southeast. Normally, you would expect to hear about November snowfall in Augusta, Maine; however, this was not the case on Tuesday, as areas near Augusta, Ga.., had the white wintry weather. In Georgia, Millen recorded up to 2 inches of snow, while an inch whitened Lawton, Sylvania and Butts. In South Carolina, Charleston got its earliest snowfall of the season and recorded its first-ever thunder snow at the airport. Snow even appeared in Florida, as light snow mixed with light rain and drizzle as far south as the county that houses Orlando; warm surface temperatures, however, keep the snow from accumulating. While the snow was a sight to see, warming temperatures Friday and into the weekend will make the winter's early appearance a faint memory.
Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Kristina Baker."

From Accuweather..

AMAZING!!!!

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Ray..are you seeing the news today...what an amazing blast in Danvers. It looks like a warzone.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Yeah, I saw it, I am more astonished by the fact that noone died than by the explosion itself!

Anonymous said...

Hey Mr. Foot!
Glad to see you back! Hope you have a happy Thanksgiving and a happy 1st birthday for your little one who shares my birthday-November 30th. Please remember us southern folks when you do your long anticipated winter forecast. I'm thinking this my be the year for cental Alabama--Do you think Santa might blow some snow down our way? If so , do you think my boys will be able to build a clean snowman? My boys and I can build a snowman in what y'all would call a "light dusting" but it sure is nice to be able to build one with no grass or dirt clods.
Merry Christmas!!
Amy, Lanier and David

Anonymous said...

Get ready, get set...the Arctic air is poised to invade...First PNW & MT..then the Plains..then the Eastern Seaboard by next weekend.

Put those shovels and snowblowers on standby.

Anonymous said...

I hope Mr. foot does have time for his winter forecast!

Anonymous said...

RAY- Within 48 hrs Foot's forecast will be out, any guesses? I say he goes normal snowfall for the mid atlantic, and above normal for the interior mid atlantic, with SNE the jackpot('04-'05 redux?). Slightly above normal temps for all areas on avg DJF.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Foot,
PLEEAASSE don't forget about your friends from Alabama when you do your winter forecast!! I need to know if I need to save money for a winter vacation or if my boys might get some snow in their own yard. We are hoping that this will be our year for snow. Hope you and your family had a wonderful Thanksgiving.
Amy

Anonymous said...

ERIC- SNE jackpot this winter?

How much snow we talking about..are you still going with your call of 60"?

Looking long range, it looks like we are all going to be going into a very cool to cold (-1 to -2 degrees from ave.) pattern for at least the next 1-2 weeks after this week's warmth.

Highs tomorrow in Boston...around 62.

Monday around 61.

I am going to enjoy the warmth and give the lawn the final close cut tomorrow and be ready for winter to settle in for the long haul.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Yup.

E.H. Boston said...

Anyone want to talk abot something. We are on the verge of our first Arctic outbreak. We have to wait about 6 more days, but by this weekend expect highs in the lower to mid 40's in most of the Mid Atlantic to mid-upper 30's in New England.

Snow? Not showing yet, but snowstorms usually can pop up with little to no warning, 2-3 days out.

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Ray...tell me that something is wrong with this so I do NOT get my hopes up..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p06_138l.gif

Check it out..138 hours to 150 hours.

I guess thats one thing..its 6 days out.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Don't hold ur breath,at least 95% of the precip will be out before the arrival of the cold IMHO.

Anonymous said...

RAY- So Mr. Foot, when exactly will you be issuing your winter nowcast? : )

Anonymous said...

Let's try to predict when Foot's Winter forecast will be up for us to read. I predict December 10th.

Anonymous said...

RAY- The morning of Dec first.

Anonymous said...

ERIC- January 4th.

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Okay...now this is getting a little ridiculous.

November 27th, just 3 lousy days until December and its in the mid 60's. This has just been going on and on with no sign of ending.

Yesterday it looked like Boston had a good chance of seeing its first snow Friday night, but now its going to be in the 60's with rain showers. Thursday could be pushing 70 degrees if we see enough sunshine. The once promising cold front only looks to bring temps into the mid 40's for this weekend. (and then warming early next week?)

I guess you all were right...winter will be starting very late this year.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Mid-late Dec its go time, which isn't very late, but climatologicaly normal around here. Chill out!

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Watching the SNOW BOWL on ESPN in SEATTLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Newton said...

Did anyone catch the blog from Accuweather which talks about a potential snow event for the Mid-Atlantic early next week despite a positive NAO? What is that about?

Anonymous said...

RAY- Strong Positive PNA, see winter '02-'03.

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Can you guys explain that more.

Anonymous said...

JK - Which will come first? the first flakes of the year in Baltimore area or Foot's winter forecast? hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Anonymous said...

RAY- Eric, in the winter of '02 the NAO was near neutral, but there was a HUGE +PNA ridge over W NA (corresponding HUGE trough over E NA, which still managed to dump arctic air on us. In other words, the Atlantic was ok, but the Pacific saved us from what otherwise would have been a mediocre winter.

Anonymous said...

RAY- First snowfall looking more likely for SNE Dec 5.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Mr. Foot, anytime now on the threat next week, screw the winter outlook! lol

Anonymous said...

whens the next big storm man

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Come on Foot, I know your busy...just take 5 mins to post in this thing. Let us know what you're thinking.

Anonymous said...

whats the outlook for december foot

Anonymous said...

I think I am done with this site now. It was a nice ride.

Anonymous said...

RAY- My patience is wearing thin, I know he is busy, but how long does it take to hit the "post" button and display ur winter outlook/nowcast?

Anonymous said...

It hit 70 at Logan today!

Anonymous said...

Okay he said that it would be out after the Thanksgiving break...

It's Thursday..4 days late..not bad.

I would not want to have you as a teacher Foot. You'd take a test in September and get it back in March!!

Anonymous said...

Happy Birthday to Little Foot!!
Amy

Anonymous said...

well the weather outside is frightfull but inside its quite delightful and theres really no place to so let it snow let it snow LET IT SNOW!

Anonymous said...

ERIC-Whats up with the NAM!

Is it for real?!

Monday Nor'easter now?

Anonymous said...

RAY- I think so.

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Latest run of the NAM is still throwing snow at us, but it is farther to the S&E. Something to watch.

Anonymous said...

foot ur slackin!

Anonymous said...

ERIC- NAM continues to show the SE movement of the storm. GFS is staying more steady, even showing the storm futher west than NAM now.

For this reason here's my preliminary preliminary snowfall thoughts...

Cape Cod: 3 - 6" (If rain mixes in, expect 3", if not, 6" likely)

South Shore-PVD-SE CT: 2 - 4"

Boston-Worcester-Hartford NW about 40 mi: coating - 2"

I want to hear all your thoughts...I was reading in Accuweather that if this thing just moves a little closer to the coast by 50 or so miles, NYC and PHI will be digging out of quite a bit of snow along with BOS and possibly DC.

Foot, this is your time to shine!

Anonymous said...

I know, there is a potential storm for the NE, and we await foot's forecast. I think this site should be shutdown if there isn't an update.

Anonymous said...

cmon ure keepin us waitin everyones on edge