(it was a) DISAPPOINTING DECEMBER
(that will lead to) AN ACTION-PACKED JANUARY
AND A VERY FABULOUS FEBRUARY
I promise. Just you wait and see what's going to happen.
January update pending: The Official Foot's Forecast for Winter 06-07. It's not going to be terribly earth-shattering, might even leave a few of us wanting more, but I believe overall this upcoming crib of cold we call "Meteorological Winter" will overall give those of us who love big storms something to talk about...at least twice in the next 3 months. For those who don't have a lot of time to sift through endless pontification, here's the summary as short as I can make it: For my central and southern I-95 readers, (from NYC to Virginia) I still believe most of your snow will come in 2 bigger storms and 1 smaller storm. The same hold for interior dwellers, except that your totals will be higher. For our New England friends, I'm still not ready to go all out and say you'll have a blockbuster winter like in recent years, quite frankly I'm leaning towards you having less snow than recently, (say 125% of normal instead of 150%) but still above normal.
FOOT'S SHORT LIST FOR WINTER 06-07
Note: This forecast is valid for the regions that include the I-95 corridor from Richmond to Boston, and interior sections of the states which are crossed by 95. The western edge of my forecasting is established along a line from Jay Peak, Vermont..to Binghamton, NY, to Altoona, PA...to Roanoke, VA. When winter storm conditions permit, I will also extend the line to include the eastern deep South from central Alabama northeast through the southern Appalachians back to Roanoke.
1.DECEMBER: Overall a disappointing, near-normal month for temperatures, below average for snow, above average rainfall. I sense late this month we'll start hearing people say, "I guess that little cold snap early on is all we're going to see." Rumors of a near record-heat wave on Christmas Day (let's say, in the 50's and 60's) might fuel the fiction that "This year, winter ended before it even started." Any big storms are going to be confined to the Mid and Far West, and northern New England. Given the current unfavorable pattern for classic nor-easters, I am more apt to say the Deep South will get freak snow/ice in late December from an over-running event than for us along I-95 to see anything appreciable before Dec 27. Interior Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will have their usual clippers and enhanced lake-effect so the ski resorts can at least get something on the ground by Christmas. The situation driving my thinking is the current cold snap and the positive NAO. Things just got too cold, too quickly and much too early. With no blocking in place or even remotely predicted, it'll take a while (at least 3 weeks) for another Arctic high to recharge and deliver cold air just in time for an amplifying jet stream to send a southern soaker toward us impatient Yankees. Many of you know the winter storm recipe and I just don't see it in the tea leaves or anywhere else anytime soon: a cold High parked in SE Canada showing that tell-tale damming signature.
2.JANUARY. Thanks to the disappointing December delay, I think this is the month winter strikes back and with the NAO likely to drift toward neutral by this time, it is bound to go negative at some point especially if we (read Ohio Valley, Mid-Atl, NE) get another freak warm spell later in December like we did late last week followed by a cold front. Given Atlantic SST's what they are, I think somewhere mid-January would be enough time for all the stars to properly align (the "stars" being the PNA, NAO, a Southern Stream bowing north, and a brief Greenland Block). Granted I am making this up in the sense that no model can accurately spit all that out 45 days in advance. However I think of the atmosphere as a fluid experiment with time limits. It will take a certain amount of time for all the indices to reach the ideal tipping point that enables air masses to interact in a way to deliver a snowstorm. I think that time period is roughly 30-45 days from now, after we get a few warm spells over with. The areas targeted for this star-studded mid-January event will be the I-95 corridor and interior from Atlanta to southern New England. My analog for this winter is 86-87, with the potential for a repeat of the January 22, 1987 storm that brough 12" to Philly. I remember December 86 was uninspiring, for example on Christmas day at my home in the suburbs, it was 50F and probably cloudy (according to wunderground.com). Whatever storm arrives in January will help set the stage for one,possibly two events in February.
3.FEBRUARY: My early thinking is a couple rapid-fire storms that will be fun to forecast, but wear us all down with shoveling and bitter cold. The justification is that once the atmosphere gets into it's storm production pattern, I believe we'll see a 3-4 week period starting with Kahuna # 1 (mid-January) that kicks out two more by February 20, and then the engine sputters out. We'll come to call Kahunas 2 or 3 "El Nino" storms due to the possibility the ENSO index might be firmly established in the "moderate" phase by then.
4. MARCH: I believe early Spring 07 will resemble 06. Long cooler than normal, everyone waiting for some end-of-winter promised final storm that never arrives. This will be a bonus to Spring sports folks, (in central and southern I-95 regions) who I think will be able to kick off their practice season just fine in early March. Each spring we wonder if there's a chance of a March 1993 or 1958 repeat, and the reason I think that's off the table this year is El Nino. If my Kahunas 2 and 3 don't materialize, then we'll look back and know that the pattern was overwhelmed by a stronger than anticpated El Nino. Remember classic winter storm years were those that recorded a weak to moderate ENSO...from .5 to no more than 1.5 degree C above normal. (Forecaster friends, correct that if my numbers are off a bit).
I am open to the idea of a reliable reader who is willing to serve as accountability partner and make sure I don't backpedal on my ideas or overstate. The concept is you would track my predicted storm times and types and compare to what actually happens when those dates come to pass on the calendar. I also plan to continue the "storm grade amount" system where I publish an exact amount of snow for specific areas, and then generate a letter grade based on how close the predicted amount was to the actual.
All for now, I gotta go back to baby duty. I plan to update this as we go forward and include the requisite charts, maps, links so you can see my source material for the winter 06-07 ideas.
Peace and Tranquility,
Mr. Foot
132 comments:
What happened to the days when winter started in late October/ early November and continued like an angry lion through March. A late winter snow season is like getting 12" of snow in 2 hours. Part of the enjoyment of snow is watching it fall/ having it on the ground more than a month before it's melted by the summer sun. Mr. foot, thanks for the forecast; by the way there is no "P" in Binghamton, NY.
Thanks KEM for the spell check. I absolutely despise spelling errors in public documents!
While I'm "back" I'm not really back, it is and will continue to be a chaotic month so updates from this point forward for most of December are only going to be additions, graphics and links to the current post. I say this because I just have a feeling there won't be any major storms for a few weeks and I've got time to polish up the forecast before our first big storm.
If you have particular questions or want something specific addressed in the forecast, send me an email according to the link on the right column. Thanks for everyone's patience and I hope it will be as fun of a winter as in past years.
A side note to RAY: Thanks for the nice post on easternwx. In all fairness, I did read some other blogger forecasters back a few weeks ago to recently, but to be completely honestly, I don't remember what anyone really said. I think the mayhem of managing my sick little baby throws short term memory out the door. I don't recall what HM's forecast was but if you can dig it up I'd be interested to see if there are any similarities between that one and mine. Wouldn't it be interesting if two totally independent forecasters came up with the same ideas and then it came true!
Hey Mr. B-- I'm so sorry that you waited up for my forecast :-((
I should have warned you that I had to go into Red Alert Baby Mode..her, Mommy and I had rough night which turned into a rough morning today, thus I had to stop the forecast altogether until we could get her calm and sleeping.
Regarding your location in terms of my forecasts.. I think you'll see good snow amounts from both Kahuna 1 (mid Jan) to K2 (early to mid Feb), probably more than me in Baltimore. There's also an equal chance of an East Coast Buster that ends up dumping on you and leaves us dry and whining.
Mr. Foot,
Don't worry about it I was making snow ( more like ice) intill 11:30pm. Then I checked your site a couple of times last night.
( "There's also an equal chance of an East Coast Buster that ends up dumping on you and leaves us dry and whining.")
I knew you would make me happy. :)
Dry and whining . . . I missed you Mr. Foot.
Justin Berk was at my school on Friday and told me that he has a radio talk show on Sundays allllllll about weather on 680 AM (WCBM). I think it's on at 1 p.m. I'll check his card tomorrow and let you know for sure. Perfect background noise for rocking a sick baby to sleep. What febrile little Pumpkin wouldn't want to be lulled into dreamland with talk of isobars and negative oscillations?
Welcome back...ish
RAY- Mr. Foot, first of all, very nice write up. I absolutley love your apparent choice to use '86-'87 as your primary analog for this winter, as it is IMHO, the best ENSO match out there. This is a late developing Nino, as was '86, and this will peak moderate, as did '86. That year was a very good winter, which was pretty much all in January. My seasonal total was 77.7" (my forecast is 75"-80"), with 43.0" of it coming in January!!! If you are concerned about a strong Nino, well...don't be! 1) I HIGHLY doubt that this Nino will be (tri-monthly) strong because NO Nino at this strength or weaker as of now, has ever has gone on to be strong. It will likely reach 1.5+ as a weekly value, but not tri-monthly. The el Nino of 1991-92 is the only one that developed this late and went on to be strong, but that event was already +1.6 by now and spiking rapidly, this one is +1.3 and rising slowly. As SOI values are currently tanking again, and with the passage of another Kelvin wave this month, this ENSO will likely peak at a monthly reading of +1.6 around the end of the month/New Years. The tri-monthly peak will be DJF, about +1.4. Even if hypothetically speaking, it does somehow attain a tri-monthly peak of +1.6, the atmosphere will not act accordingly until the spring, as a result of the lag~3 months. The effects on the atmosphere will be moderate, no more, no less. As a result of the warm pool of ssts present south of NF this past May-Aug, the NAO will likely be of bigger concern than the ENSO. FWIW, HM predicted a slightly cooler than normal winter, with a dull Dec, and better Jan-Feb. He said that with a variable storm track, there will likely be only a couple major storms that are all snow along the coast. HUGE storm around the third week of Jan will not be all snow in Philly. His highest anomaly of snowfall is SNE. : ) I would be more than happy to help you out with verification this season, let me know! Peace.
RAY- BTW, this el Nino still is only desegnated tri-monthly as weak, at +.9, although the MEI is now moderate.
Thanks for the nice comments Ray and your followup. I will probably take you up on the verification offer when the time comes.
I will throw in some links in the post for ENSO so others know what we're talking about! My big concern for this winter was we would not forward looking enough in anticipating the impact a stronger than expected El Nino would have given what happened with the hurricane season. I think the quarterly ENSO values caught tropical forecasters by surprise in how strong it ended up being, (relatively speaking) and that it got going earlier than expected.. snuffing out more canes than we thought it would. So I started thinking this fall..what if that trend translated into the winter. But you are right to remind me that just one temporary blip to 1.5 is not a problem as long as the tri-monthly trend does not end 1.5. For that to happen it would have to read weekly in the 1.4 -1.6 and if rising slowly now, then we should be in the clear. My fear of course was El Nino would overwhelm and overwarm the pattern to the point that the storms are negated. I do remember 91-92 in State College PA as a wasted winter, it was cold but I hardly remember any snow..I rode my bike to PSU and can't think of a single time I had to deal with snowy roads my way there or back.
So to recap, if we can keep ENSO weak to moderate on average and get a good -NAO block going in mid-Jan to mid-Feb, that will be the sweet spot for a lot of us on the East Coast.
Most interesting, Mr. Foot. I look forward to reading more about your reasoning for the current season.
IMO, '86 is a good ENSO match this season _if_ you think it will persist throughout '07. Maybe it will...maybe not. If it does... it/ll completely surprise the experts.
Other reasons I don/t like ENSO '86: 1) QBO that year ran W then flipped E late...the opposite of this year and 2) PDO was red hot that year as was its five-year running average...not so now.
My ENSO pick for this year is '57. It/s not the best match...like '63...but it/s in the SOI/s top three and the MEI/s top 10 and the only year in QBO/s top five during a +ENSO.
With few exceptions...the snows of '57 were quite good for most 1st-order reporting stations in NE and the M-A. '86 had good snows too...especially in the M-A...so whether '86 or '57 is the best analog...this winter holds out hope for those who love snow.
As for continuing your 'storm grade amount' system, maybe you/d consider entering the 8th Annual NE.Wx/s Snowfall Forecast Contest to see how well your synoptic-scale snowfall forecasts verify against other amateur forecasters.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com
RAY- Mr. Foot, good point about the hurricane season, but while the ENSO was a factor, I belive that the Saharan Atmospheric Layer (SAL) was also out in full force this past season. IMHO, the Dry Sahran air/dust had at least as mitigating an effect, and probably more than the ENSO. The ENSO was probably the reson for the truncated nature of the season. FWIW, '91-'92 winter was killed by the 2nd highest DJF NAO avg. in history, not a "strong" el Nino impact.
Frank CNJ- Thanks for the forecast. We've all been waiting for this to come out. I guess you really didn't need to rush since nothing really happened. I hope we get some of those big storms. I can wait out December for a nice January! Good luck with the sick baby, I now have a 4 month old myself, and know how hard it is to find time.
Mr. foot the spelling error is fine compared to me misspelling my own name (really hectic here at work sometimes, as I'm sure it is for you). Since I am in Binghamton just wanted to let you know. Thanks
ERIC- Ray...what do you think of this potential "Windex" event for tomorrow night?
Any accumulating snows?
NAM looks promising along with the Canadian.
RAY- Eric, haven't been to focused on it with my final presentations at school, but I am expecting sporadic, light accumulations.
Is everybody Christmas Shopping? Or just getting ready for the first snow?
RAY- NOTHING to talk about...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!
Nice cold day today but no snow in sight. Saw some ligtht flurries Friday for the first time this season. Seems like we are warm and wet or cold and dry. Hoping for some snow soon, or near Christmas but as Mr. Foot indicated correctly so far, December has been a weather no show for snow fans. I haven't seen anything in the next 10 day trends that point to snow for the mid atlantic only a warm-up. Here's loking forward to change in the next 10 days after that!
RAY-Dec is a lost cause for snowhounds.
Well at least it's snowing in my yard. I made a snow gun, and it's pretty beastly. 1" was covering my yard, but it's melting due to it's 52 degress. AH!!!!!!!!!
Cancel Winter!
Is it me or does it seem lately that winter doesn't really start to mid Janaury and is gone by early March? What happen to solid three months of winter? Global warming or just a climate trend?
I agree, it does seem like winter is starting later, but I also feel that it is lasting longer
Get out your surfboard weather
ERIC-
Amazing quote from PRO METEOROLOGIST John Kocet of Accuweather..
Here are two more graphics that exemplify how scarce cold weather and snow will be this week. After last week's brutal blast, the Arctic has been drained of frigid air, and it will take time to reload. Here is an interesting fact that I am not particularly happy about. The last time there was a 3-inch snowfall here in State College, Pa., was Dec. 15, 2005. With no snow on the horizon, that means I will have spent an entire year without seeing a substantial snowfall. That has never happened before in my 57 years.
Story By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.
I can't even imagine his pain...
On accuweather the blog video actually is now stating cold air in the east and a possible snowstorm. Check it out -- seems pretty exciting if it actually all comes together. I think we're going to see the cold air come in soon -- at least we can all hope.
Where is this blog video?
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=meteomadness
When you go to accuweather - there are headlines and blogs on the left, it's called Meteo-Madness under blogs
Looks like the rest of the year will be a blowtorch. Most of the next 10 day here are forecast to be in the 60's and mid 50's WOW! Better luck in January.
ERIC- You may not need to wait until Jan. How bout just until middle-end of next week and a few days after Christmas.
You'll be happy, I promise.
I hope those models runs keep the storms. One day they have something, the next day is a whole different scenario. I like the way they are looking now though.
Linda- At this point, I would be happy enough to see it be cold for Christmas, I really hate when it is warm for the holidays. And the fog is getting on my nerves.
ERIC- Where is everybody?
I am starting to give up hope...looks like a mild Christmas afterall.
ERIC-
UPDATED WINTER 2006-2007 FORECAST!!!
Ok...tomorrow is DEC 17th
Boston Snowfall
0.4"
Ray...you still going with about 60" for the season in Boston.
I am going to say around 35".
REASONING...
November Average = ~ 3" ACTUAL: 0
December Average = ~ 9" SO FAR: 0.4" WILL GO WITH 2" this month.
January Average = ~ 11" GUESS: 6"
February Average = 12" GUESS: 15"
March Average = 8" GUESS: 2"
April Average = 2" GUESS: 0
December looks very disappointing as was expected. There are now talks of this pattern continuing through most of January...so I decided to go with about 1/2 of normal snowfall.
February looks to be the month as was forecasted by many so I went with above average snowfall.
Spring will start extremely early this year...many factors coming into play...Nino, jet stream...etc...so little snow after Feb.
ADD 'EM ALL UP
Dec 2" + Jan 8" + Feb 18" + Mar 3" = SEASON TOTAL 31"
Rounded up to go with 35". Provided that we do not see a MEGASTORM or ULTRA KAHUNA in the coming days or in March...by freak accident...these numbers look pretty good for Boston seasonal snowfall.
Here is what I think for a few other cities...
NEW YORK CITY: < 30" (around normal)
PHILADELPHIA: < 25" (around normal)
BALTIMORE: < 25" (around normal)
DC: < 20" (slightly below)
YORK CO, PA: < 40" (about normal)
BOSTON, MA: < 40" (below normal)
WOBURN, MA: < 45" (below normal)
WORCESTER, MA: < 65" (slgt below)
HARTFORD, CT: < 45" (about normal)
No solid numbers...basis numbers...in the ballpark figures.
DATES TO WATCH:
. End of January
. Mid February
. End of February
. Early March
Spring will come quickly this year...with a possible kink in the warmth early April...northern New England...with a snow event? Who knows.
Basically...this winter will feel like a no show, but we will get to around average in the end looking back on it.
Eric-
Anything to back this up, or just a gut feeling?
Hokiehop
ERIC- I am no pro met...but I know a little bit of whats going on. Also, I think I was cursed into liking this weather thing...so I think I read article after article, blog after blog...always reading on the weather pattern...
I just conglomerated much of my reading into this easy coherent comment, laying it out on the line. Let's see how it works out.
RAY- Linda, I feel ya on the fog lol. Eric, I'm not budging YET, if we are still in this pattern by the third week of Jan, than we'll talk. I can assure you that spring will not come early, we will have a cold spring, which is the opposite of my thoughts from the fall. The very same mechanisms that are giving us a positive NAO winter, will give us a "blocky" late winter/spring. 1) Dropping QBO toward neutral will be conducive for blocking. 2) potential lagged effects on the AO/NAO (collapsing of polar westerlies) from current polar, stratospheric warming. 3) A weakening of the lagged (May-Aug) NF warm pool of Atlantic ssts. The tripole from Aug-Oct will re-emerge in Feb-March, replacing the warm pool that has re-emerged s of NF from May-Aug, thus creating a positive feedback with the atmosphere for high latitude blocking over Greenland/Davis Straight. 4) ENSO climo, go back and look at weak-mod el Nino Feb and tell me how many sucked, not too many; however MOST of them had sucky Dec. Talk to me in April.
ERIC- Happy Birthday to me today. Seven days to Christmas and am I reading that 73 degrees in Dundalk, MD right...right now at 4PM on the 18th of December...3 days from the solstice.
THAT IS FREAKING FREAKY!!!
PHI is pushing 70, DC is in the 70's, we got jipped here in BOS with low 50's and cloudy raw skies. Trees are budding and the beaches are filling.
Wow, that was a quick winter...huh?
This weather is so fustratating and ridiculous...TREES ARE BUDDING and FLOWERS ARE POPPING.
I give up...throwing in the towel. Adios. Ciao. Arrivederci. Buon voyage. Syanara winter.
Trees budding in CNJ as well. I am hearing some talk about a possible sign of winter come Christmas day. Who knows though. I'll believe that when it is in my foredcast 1 day before!
ERIC- Well...to be honest...I have read that trees were budding around your area...CNJ...NYC...haven't seen any budding in BOS yet. Have you Ray?
Remember in 98-99...the 75 degree temps in BOS with tons of budding and blooming trees on the Common and all around BOS?
And when did the Celtics take 1st place? Thats just sad.
RAY- No, I haven't seen any budding trees, God Eric, you give up waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay to early!!!!!
I'm still in hybernation as I haven't seen a sign of winter. The temps ae as hot as the Ravens with no cool down in sight!
I hear there may be a white Christmas after all...any thoughts on that?? I am hoping for a beautiful white Christmas...are they just getting my hopes up???
Probably just the day after and Hagerstown west if anything.
Linda- Don't you all wish we were in Denver? Looks like the spot to be if you like blizzards. At least they will have a white-christmas, while we have yuk, 50 degrees.
ERIC- Guys, is there any reason to get excited about the storm for the day after Christmas in Boston.
I have heard possibilities of snow, but watched TWC and Tuesday's forecast is a high of 55 with showers.
This winter plain out SUCKS.
Sorry for the language but it does.
BOSTON SNOWFALL TO DATE: 0.4"
Foot going to Johnstown for christmas. Look good for snow with that storm the day after?
RAY- I95 will have no white xmas, get over it.
Linda-BucksCounty- Since there will be no white christmas anywhere near us, let me just take a moment before it gets really hectic, to say, have a wonderful holiday to everyone on this site. And have faith, at sometime during this winter, we will have snow, and cold.
ERIC- Amen..Amen
ERIC- Is BOS back in the game with this one?!
ERIC- Nvr Mind
MERRY CHRISTMAS
Accuweather.com shows Wind and Snow on New Years Day! for Baltimore, could the pattern be changing?
Just wanted to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas!
ho, ho, no. . .the pattern is not changing, but I do enjoy that child-like belief that snow will happen.
I have daffodiles starting to come up already! what is going on? I bet ski resorts are hurting, I doubt many have even been able to open. The way this winter is going, the next update on this site might be hurricane season!
Seems winter is over before it started. First week of the New Year looks to be warm so that will leave 7 weeks until March. It needs to start looking like there is some cold air somewhere soon, or time will run out! Here's to the next 7 weeks and hope they make up for the warmth of the first 5!
winter is over just give it up its friggin 50 degrees in december itsall down hill from here
so much for them snowdays
It seems the last couple of seasons we have been talking about 50s-60s or heavy rain more than snow. Last January was an unreal blowtorch. Something has got to give around here. Saw an interesting report on CNN about North East Ski resorts really suffering bad! Heck they are burning old ski equip. in hopes of snow. Hope the snow GODS are listening as it would be nice to at least have 8 weeks of cold and snow out of a 52 week year (is that too much to ask?).
NO SNOW!!!!!!!!! wats this world comin to?
Seems like the pattern so far is winter in the west and warm in the East. It seems like as a child in the 70's and early 80's winters were much harsher, not sure if I am sold on global warming, but something isn't right that is for sure.
There is no question the world is warming...its warming...thats a fact...whats leading to this warming is yet to be proven...
I for one, am sold on the increased CO2 in the atmosphere increases the temperature drastically.
Old fashioned winters may very well be a thing of the past. Who knows? Two years ago, Boston picked up 86"+ and 2002-2003, we wound up with 72"+.
So far this year 0.4"
Is it global warming...averaging...the 10 year cycle...or something we haven't learned about yet...
Well..if you have the answer to it...let us know...and tell Washington..but one thing is for sure..winters have been getting shorter and shorter and good old fashioned winters may very well be few and far between.
I just think that we remember wrong when we were kids. The past 4 winters NYC got over 40" of snow, and that never happened before since records have been kept. We've also had measuable snow in April a few times these last couple years, and that doesn't happen often. I think El Nino and the Pacific jet are wrecking things so far, not global warming.
Take it for what it's worth:
".....No snow...not even a flake...has fallen in New York City, and prospects for any snow for the rest of the month look negligible. If that turns out to be the case, it will be the first time since December 1877 (Yes..I remember it well) that no snow has been observed in the Big Apple. And here's another juicy statistic for you...in every winter in which no more than a trace of snow occurred in November or December, going back to the winter of 1868-69, snowfall during the rest of the winter was below normal. I hate to say it snow lovers in New York City, but that's a pretty strong signal about what to expect for the rest of the winter" Dr. Joel Sobel, Accuweather.com
Linda- Mr. Foot, we sure do miss you. We are all turning into negative people, bothered by the warm temperatures,fog, smog, and whatever else goes with the territory. If you could just give a little sign of good things in our future, maybe we could all lighten up a bit!! We all would love to live in Colorado right now,but we don't. Hope your holidays' were grand.{ with two little ones, how could it be anything but], and have a happy new year.hopefully filled with the promise of cold and snow. Please come back to us soon, you are like our SNOW GOD!!!!
A chilling (pardon the pun)forecast for the Northeast US from October of this year:
http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/oct2006/2006-10-04-03.asp
ERIC- WOO HOO!!
Maybe some snow FLURRIES tomorrow afternoon...
Now ain't that something to get excited about..
:0
this is getting depressing, everytime I look at long range forecasts I just see mild or even milder temperatures.....MR FOOT please tell us this winter will not be a total loss!?
only white stuff on my shovel is DUST!!! Depressing is right...no snow.. no Mr. Foot... (sigh)
It really has been a record setting year for snow in 2006 for central PA. From the NWS:
"It looks like many locations will have their lowest calendar year
snowfalls since records began being kept. Harrisburg has had only 5.7 inches this year. The old record was 7.1 back in 1998.
Williamsport has had just 9.7 inches in 2006. The old record being set back in 1930 at 12.9 inches."
This is amazing for this part of the country. It looks like this trend will continue for the first half of January. It just might be climate change. Time will tell.
RAY- Oh yeah, must be climate change, NYC won't have 200% of its normal snowfall 5 yrs in a row...what an asenine conclusion. The globe has warmed, but that is not the cause of one down snowfall year, the avg snowfall has gone UP the last several years for the big cities of the east coast. Any way, 1.5" here today!!!!! Seasonal total crawls up to 2".
ERIC- 1.25" a town down in Woburn!
We have a seasonal total of 1.75"
Dear Mr. Foot,
Happy New Year to you and to all the little Feet!
Wishing you lots of snowsuit days in the year ahead.
... and Ray, dear, you might not want to appear quite so arrogant until you learn to spell ...
Ray, No one has concluded that climate change is behind any of this. It could be, but that is just speculation, hence the injection of might into the analysis. Temperatures have been very mild and snow accumulation rates low with respect to historical norms. If 130-40 year statistical anomalies begin to occur with seemingly relative frequency, then speculation which at least mentions contemporary climatilogical theory is not beyond the the realm of reasonable discourse.
No one has the answer as to whether or not this is in relation to climate change or merely cyclical.
(the above was left on the wall of a restroom at a truck stop but I thought I would copy it here since it sounded interesting)
PS, HAPPY NEW YEAR. OFF TO THE PARTY! THIS IS THE NEW AND BETTER BEHAVED ANDY SOTHERN YORK COUNTY, PA AS I HAVE A 6 MONTH OLD AT HOME THIS YEAR. I WILL A HOME BODY WITH THE FAMILY TONIGHT. BEST WISHES TO ALL AND MAY YOUR NEW YEAR BE COLD AND WHITE!!!!!!
Linda- Happy New Year everyone.
ERIC- Happy New Year...
I've got some bad news...this weather pattern ain't changing anytime soon. In fact, by the way it looks now we could be in store for a repeat Jan. 06!
By Thursday and Friday...Boston will be 55-60, and may push 60 once again early next week.
By Thursday adn Friday...Mid Atlantic will be more like 60-65+, maybe pushing 70 by the end of this week and early next week.
I guess the flowers I saw in Burlington this past week will keep on growing...
This may not be climate change...but something FREAKY is definitely going on.
RAY- Julee, glad to see you have been made captain of the typo police, surley you have never missed a key in your haste to type on an informal blog (rolls eyes). Thanx for letting me know, I was unaware this was part of my Master's thesis : ). Hi Andy, sorry if I sounded harsh, but I hear the same stuff on the wx boards and it irritates me ( some of them do blame climo change, sorry to have unfairly lumped you into that). The globe has warmed, no argument there ( largely natural and cyclical in nature IMHO), but snowfall has NOT suffered, you are incorrect here. In fact, Boston's mean seasonal snowfall is at its highest point in 100+ yrs of record keeping, Dr. Joe D'Aleo made a graphic illustrating this. If I can find it I will post it. I believe that anonamously warm ssts of the gulf stream are to thank...Julee, feel free to interject my human spell check, whateva keeps ya busy! : ) : ) Happy New Year to you Julee, and everyone else, BTW Eric, something "freaky" must have also been going on in 1994, 1991, 1990, 1989, 1972, 1875, 1912, 1918, and all the years in between in which we suffered a through a great paucity of snowfall...
RAY- Oh yea, in case you didn't notice, I have busted quite miserably so far this winter! I will have an updated snowfall forecast on Jan 15. SO FAR I have been WRONG.
RAY, No problem, I understand the frustration. Would be nice to see this pattern break at least in time to salvage the last half of the month. Just hope if it does break for the colder then it doesn't become cold and dry. It just seems like we either have very warm and wet weather, or cold and dry that follows, niether of which boad well for powderhounds.
Happy New Year everyone. These last few blogs reminds me of a movie from some years ago called "shoot", its theme: two separate groups of hunters, after days of finding no pray, cross paths one day. Suddenly, without warning they start shooting at each other. My point is that we are all frustrated with this winter. With no snow to dig our ski poles in, we are digging them into each other. I only hope that Mr. Foots forecast for a turnaround this month bears fruit.
Just taking up for my fellow powderhound Andy, who makes me laugh out loud every snow season (thank you, Andy).
All we need in these winter postings is shared information about SNOW (when, where and how many feet) not invective.
We need to take a lesson in forbearance and humility from our leader Mr. Foot.
I apologize for issuing a vituperative comment.
vituperative ????? where is my dictionary...lol.....
RAY- Ken, very good post, you hit the nail right on the head. I am frustrated, but I do have other interests to keep me from becoming too moody, such as my beloved Red Sox, and Hurricane season. Julee, no apology was necessary, my post did have a rather persumptuous tone (my apologies for that), no offense taken.
Ray, and all bloggers, I am also considering the fact any late (mid January & after) season snow will be affected by the rising sun angle. That is a weather element that will occur regardless of El Nino. Perhaps, there will be sufficient snowfalls, cold and cloud cover to negate that effect- I dislike slushy snow. I know some may consider January mid-winter, but it's only a couple of steps to spring.
I know we all want snow around here in Baltimore, but most of our snowstorms occur from mid January to late February, so maybe we just need to relax some and once this winter in the west and warmer in the east pattern switches we good still get some decent snow. I know the ski resorts are in bad shapes though, since the lack of cold air has prohibited them from even making decent snow.
Happy (belated) New Year to all!
Already cancelled one ski trip...hoping to get two more in at the end of the month.
Die Nino, die!
RAY- Ken, ur overdoing the rising sun angle a little, Feb is climotalogically the best month for snow...period. You are correct though, it does melt faster in the sun , as opposed to Jan/Feb, but temp wise late Jan is the heart of winter. At this latitude, I never worry about sun angle at all until after Valentines day.
Ray- EDIT: I meant Jan/Dec.
Linda- I can't even imagine what summer will bring, since it't winter and the temperatures are 60 degrees!!
ERIC- The summer will bring highs in the 20's and 30's with snow. Just kidding.
Highs here in Boston by Saturday could be nudging the 65 degree mark! I know thats a drop in the hat for you Mid Atlanticers. Today was 53 at my house, a little cooler than I expected. Tomorrow will be about 55-58. Then Saturday will be 62-67!
I think its time to move to the North Pole to see any snow. Its official FLOWERS are UP and getting ready to bloom in and around the BOSTON area...I saw tulips in full bloom in Medford/Somerville, tulips ready to bloom in Burlington, 12 mi NW of Boston...and next door the flowers have popped out in the little garden where the sun shines longest.
With highs in the 50's and 60's through Sunday with lows staying above freezing at night with wet conditions, I wouldn't doubt more Boston January flowers making their first appearance.
RAY- Linda, my early guess is that summer will be mild, the pattern now has NOTHING to do with the pattern then. Eric, have patience, the factors that I was talking about ARE falling into place: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/qbo.data
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/table.html
Just as I said, the el Nino is now weak again, and the QBO is falling toward neutral, VERY good signs for increased blocking down the road. I still believe that we make a run at near normal snow fall, or at least salvage something...
Let's see January 6th is calling for highs close to 70 degrees in Baltimore....Can we please get some cold air for next weekends Ravens game! I want it to feel like football weather......
ERIC- The high today was 70.6 in the shade at my house. I just got home from the Bruins game and it felt like it was mid July.
It was unbelievable.
Got up to 73 in the shade in CNJ
cmon i need some snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I do not believe it will happen this season. My guess is that Baltimore will have no more than 6 inches for the rest of the winter, most of which will be slush that won't last a New York second. That is if we are lucky!
What happen to the cold predicted? seems like 5 or so days ago they were talking about a cold front puching thru and colder temps in the future, but now looking at the long range, Baltimore is seeing high 60's and near 70 again next weekend! this is crazy....going to come down to February....Was there ever a year where no snow was measured in Baltimore?
IM SCARED!!!!!!!
schoolls startin to be drag ...... need 1 0r 2 good snow days
There will be a snow storm the week of the 22nd
Don't worry - the snow and cold are coming the second half of January. Accuweather finally has the 20th as SNOW for Baltimore in the 15 day forecast. I think February will have a couple good snowstorms.
i dont wanna get my hopes up. i need the final word from foot!!!!!!!!!!!!
I have seen snow in the accuweather forecast before and than a few days later it is revised to 50 degrees....maybe this time it will stick.....
ERIC- Foot, the COLD is coming next week and I mean the REAL COLD that will stay for a while.
We finally need your input this week(end).
You've had your "vacation." Now its time to get back to work!
how many comments will it take this time before we get an update? just a quick summary of the weeks ahead would be good.....
People, the 15 day ACCUWEATHER forecast is nothing more than a raw print out of the long range GFS, please don't depend on it! So far, this pattern looks cold, and bone dry, I'd rather have the blowtorch (at least that was boring and comfy). I am not convinced the pattern will end up dry, hopefully we some changes in the ensembles.
That has always been my concern that we go from warm and wet to cold and dry. Hopefully some storm will follow the cold.
ERIC- Ray don't be so cynical. Let's just take this one step at a time. We are getting one plus, which is a good source of cold air.
Now all we need is a storm.
I think you've been a Red Sox fan too long. You Mid Atlantic readers gotta love our defeatist attitudes up here in Boston.
accuweather changed the forecast for the 22nd. It went from a chanceof snow to mostly sunny with a high of 44. there goes my hope right out the window!!!!!!!!!!
Eric, I am only regurgitating what the models are displaying, you are the one who has given up on winter several times this season. As for the Red Sox comment, any one who hasn't put that to bed after 2004 is a fool. Anonomous, how many times do I have to scream that stupid Accuweather forecast is not even done by a human met, ITS RAW 15 DAY GFS OUTPUT, give it a rest!
I thought I had a bad Irish/Italian temper?
Linda- On accu.weather.com, read the winter returns with a vengence,by Joe Bastardi, It almost sounds a little promising. And once we get that long awaited snow and cold, maybe we can all be friends again!! Eric, are you supposed to get something in weather this weekend? Hope so, at least somebody on the site, will have something to look forward to.
Any word on FOOT? I guess this site only gets updated once a month or so. I did read that article on accuweather.com, it sounds hopeful but we have all heard that song and dance before....we shall see, I think February is our best hope.
Ray needs to loosen his belt a little, his panties are in a knot! Chill out bro. Not all of us here read models or know the workings of accuweather.com. Plus, what you write seems verbatim from easternuswx.com meteorologist, so stop claiming that you know what's going on.
Anonymous, how difficult is to ascertain that an automated 15 day forecast is not manufactured with the due dilligence of a pro met lol! : ) I'm sure that someone has written on a forum that the sky is blue, but I guess if I wrote it, it would be "copying verbatim". Dude, it seems the people who live and die by 15 day, automated forecasts from model to model are the ones with their panties in a bunch. I have no temper problem, if people want to worry over that crude output, go right ahead, I tried. I understand not everyone is privy to the models, and that is fine, but it doesn't mean that you can't learn. For the record, I have learned alot from Easternuswx (not about the accuwx forecast, I used common sense for that), but employing your logic, I am not allowed to incorporate it? I guess pro mets can not "claim that they know what is going on" because they are using knowledge derived from their professors, and some taken "verbatim" from computer models. Have a good one, dude.
Mr. Foot must be busy with the little Feet, he would be all over this threat otherwise, though there is not much of a threat for the mid atlantic now is there? : (
BTW, before anyone signs me up for anger management classes, my ONLY purpose for pointing out how obvious it is that the ACCUWX forecasts are automated was to illustrate the fact that I do not need to plagarize a post from Easternuswx to figure it out. My intent was NOT to belittle anyone who was not cognizant of this, I understand that some people are not as into meteorology as others.
Ray=hack. He posts on here after reading the other website that was mentioned. It is ironic that a post on the other website talks about accuweather.com and how a computer generates the forecast, and then 10 minutes later on here he posts about it after someone mentions it. We have a real weather "know it all" on here. Do us all a favor and let Foot forecast on here. You can post a blog on raysforecast for people to read....or they can go on easternuswx.com and read the same thing before you get to post it on here.
Mr. Foot, we need another update!!! We hear cold, and chance of a storm??? Hope you are doing well. We need an update before people kill eachother in here!! :)
Ray, Ifeel you. I think many others are just extremely frustrated because we've had no weather to speak of at this point. I believe you're sensitive to this, and i respect that.
Anonymous #1, you obviously have some sort of a disability/reading comprehension problem, therefore I will refrain from rebutting your comment. You are obviously attempting to derive a high degree of emotcion from, but I am sorry to say that you have failed. : ( As for the others, yes I am frustrated, by I am by no means comparing myself to Mr. Foot. He has more experience than I could ever dream of having, I am merley a hobbyist that gets too carried away.
EDIT: emotcion (sp) from me (is how that should read) Christ, its late!
Looks as though the southern trend has ended, unfortunatley.
emotion-no idea what you were attemting to type. I guess that word wasn't posted on another site.
You can't come up with your own ideas. Fraud
RAY- I find it humorous how people of your ilk can hurl a pantheon of assaults at my character from under the vale anonymity, perhaps one day as a result of a burgeoning intestinal fortitude and/or a couple shots of Jack Daniels, you will actually garner the courage to attach a name to your pretty posts...eh, doubtful. : )
At least with your name attached, we see Ray, and know fraud who thinks he knows it all, and really only knows what others have already written. We know to skip to the next comment. Get your own board. No one cares if you updated your winter outlook. You are a nobody. You proved in your outlook that you don't know anything, and with your other recent posts, that you copy what Mets say and try to pass them as your own words. Hack!
RAY- LOL, who did you copy ur lame come back from, troll? Mr. "anonymous" himself, calling me a nobody, oh the irony!!lol Where is your forecast, or do you have anything of substance to offer? The only thing more anonymous than your identity is the meanibg of your posts...
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