Tuesday, January 23, 2007

IF YOU WANT SNOW...
YOU'RE GOING TO LIKE THIS

Cold Blast 1

The following statement and maps are directly from the Climate Prediction Center, posted today (1/23) and is not edited or altered in any way. This agency provides routine hazard assessments for the country on 6-10 and 8-14 day projections. I found this particular statement elsewhere on the internet and had to locate the source before I felt comfortable bringing it here. But I find it interesting how forth-right and confident this prediction is for a government forecasting agency which rarely issues such headline grabbing hitters.


"SYNOPSIS: Repeated surges of cold air from Canada will overspread most of the lower 48 states east of the Continental Divide throughout most of the Assessment Period. With little available moisture in these Arctic/Polar air masses to work with, storm activity will diminish across the country during most of this period, although there is a chance for a significant wintry mix event across the interior of the Gulf and South Atlantic states sometime between Jan 31 and Feb 3, with a risk of heavy snow along the Atlantic Seaboard from Virginia to New England as this system turns northeastward. Several periods of locally heavy Lake Effect snows are likely due to the very cold Arctic air crossing the still mostly unfrozen lakes."

- Valid for the period Friday, January 26 to Tuesday, February 6.


BUT FIRST, WE HAVE TO HITCH A RIDE ON THE POLAR EXPRESS

Remember friends, I did promise you a "Very Fabulous February." It's nice to see that long range government forecasts are starting to move in that direction. But before the big blockbuster events of next month, some verrry cold air is going to park itself over the eastern third of the nation. Most of you know quite well that in order to have a good honking Nor-easter snowstorm, there needs to be a persistent and pervasive cold air mass in place well in advance of the storm. For now, it appears those elements are slowly coming together, and when they do, your patience will be rewarded.


Cold Blast 2

ABOUT THE FREQUENCY OF POSTS: Until January 30, I will be generally either preparing, issuing or grading midterms and quarter grades. This is the last post until after I have turned my grades on time, so I'll see you all back here on the 31st and we'll find out together if this projection pans out.

33 comments:

Julee said...

I DO want snow! I DO like this!
Wonder if THEIR idea of heavy snow matches MY idea of heavy snow (15")?
THANK you Mr. Foot! You REMAIN The Man!

Mr.B said...

Humm, not there anymore.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

looks to stay cold and dry to me.

bell86 said...

This lake effect snow is great! It wasn't even snowing this hard on Sunday.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Agreed. Roads AND Grass covered here. Maybe close to an inch. Yes I know this is pathetic that an inch or not even of snow is exciting, but alas during this my winter of discontent I'll take what I can get.

Mr. Foot said...

Hey Powderhound gang, I'll give you a reason to keep living:

Just saw the latest GFS run for next 2 weeks. Let's just say if we get half of the snow events depicted between now and Feb 9, there'll be 2 feet of snow on the ground by then.

Seriously. This latest model shows 3 snow events just between now and Feb 7. I am not kidding. And Boston, you'll get clobbered by all of them. Why? The NAO is going to drift back to neutral and hang out there a while. That is key to allow snow-producing storms the chance to slide up the coast and deliver snow throughout the MidAtlantic and Northeast.

Mr. B...I know that graphic is not there anymore, they change it daily. But the overall trend remains snowy. If the GFS continues to advertise storms developing along the Arctic boundary in run after run, they will have no choice but to acknowledge the potential for a 2-week period of cold and snow. In fact, it may all start kicking off this weekend with a little surprise from the south on Sunday, leading to the Thurs-Fri event, to an even bigger one Monday the 5th and much more after that.

The key concept here is once this pattern gets going, it will pump out several snowstorms in a short period of time, interspersed with very cold blasts.

To really whet your appetite..I am seeing and reading climatic signals that are eerily similar to the setup we saw in Jan and Feb 03. Yes, I am saying it. That is..it looks like the chances are increasing for a Feb 03 redux. The earliest indicator of this I found in some El Nino research..with the exception of the 95-96 winter, the years which featured big big snowstorms all had a sudden decline over a 3-month period from Dec to Feb in the "El Nino Oceanic Index" which is an overall average of El Nino conditions. Here's the site:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

More on this later in a full post, but if there's going to be a Feb 03 repeat, I will be on it like hair on a gorilla.

Mr.B said...

This Arctic front blows, Really it does. Wind 30mph and temp 20, But snow is a bust. One squall but nothing more then a small dusting.

Mr. Foot bring on those storms.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

The more hair on the gorilla the better. Frankly, the way this winter has been going the gorilla is bald, sun burned, and wrinkled. A little hair will do a body good. Hairless pink gorillas are incapable of closing down the office, so pour on the Rogain and get this primate rolling. BRING it on!!!!!!

Julee said...

See Ray? Andy made me laugh AGAIN!

E.H. Boston said...

BORING WEATHER

The 18z GFS just took away my snow MON :(

terpguy said...

Uh-oh...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.html

27 Jan 0830

Anonymous said...

Are we there yet...Are we there yet Are we there yet!??!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I doubt that we will see any real snow this season. My call is cold and dry then warm and wet. I hope Mr. Foot is corret but I am very skeptical about the snow potential for the rest of the winter. We have about 6 weeks left in the mid atlantic. It's just not looking good. But ANYHING is possible so despite my doubts I'll still keep an open mind to any ideas or forecast rationale.

My snow shovel has been very lonely this winter. Except for the few times my wife has hit me over the head with it! In fact, there is an extremely high unemployment rate in the snowblower and shovel community. If this continues I'm afraid that 3rd world conditions will permeate this community causing drug abuse and social disenfanchisement. SO FOR THE LOVE OF GOD SAVE THE SNOW SHOVEL/BLOWER COMMUNTIY, BEFORE ITS TOO LATE!

Anonymous said...

ohhhh come on now ~~ I watched all three newscasts to see their weather forecasts and not a one made me giddy~~~~

I needasnowday!

Anonymous said...

Hey Andy... only thing white on my snow shovel is DUST!!! I feel your pain.........

Anonymous said...

GFS was taking the storm west of the Apps for late week, last night and is now taking it 700 miles out to sea under SNE.

Is it safe to say that the GFS should not even be looked at anymore. It is just piss poor, pardon my french.

Anonymous said...

startin to snow a lil here in Towson!

bw said...

Mr. Foot,
Is snow on its way or should I open my pool? I really wnat a full snow day sooon.
Sharon

E.H. Boston said...

K...KA...KA...KA...KAHUNA anyone?

Let the games begin!!!!!!!

Mr.B said...

Here we go again. It was a flip then a flop now another flip.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I have always enjoyed looking at models.

Computer generated weather forecast programs are interesting too.

Mr. Foot said...

Look you skepticalhounds..

As soon as the GFS comes around to the solutions presented by the Euro and UKMet, (which I suspect happened late this afternoon as NWS DC/BAL have moved to an all snow scenario for Thu-Fri), then you will see all the Special Weather Statements start to fly by Tue-Wed. When there is this much cold air invading the nation, the models have a hard time resolving it all and tend to downplay or overlook storms developing on the fringe. This is a common problem with the GFS and hence why you see your TWC local forecast flip around every 6 hours.
This morning the 4cast was showers and 47, now we have all snow and 32.

As I said before, once my quarter grades are complete (which will be tonight) I have a large post hand written that I will translate to the site.

Let's just say "I got somethin' comin up, somethin' kinda big. You might just be proud of me." (anybody know what movie that's from?)

E.H. Boston said...

That would be from Armagedon.

I'm too good. haha

E.H. Boston said...

I believe its when the divorced father gives his kid that model rocket and then says that.

That was pretty much my favorite movie back in the day.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Just remember the protagonist in that film dies. Let's just hope our chances for snow don't follow the same course.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Well if nothing else it is very cold here. 14.8 degrees on my deck. My outdoor weather station is correct as a calibrate it frequently.

Anonymous said...

NWS still not saying much for Thursday into Friday, I really need a snowstorm, now!!!!

Mr.B said...

0Z GFS is good for me 4-8" of heavy wet snow.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Models are all over the place with this one. Any predictions? Got a quick half inch here tonight in a heavy snow burst. This is the heaviest snow we have had here all season with this squall.

Mr. Foot said...

Good news: Quarter grades are done freeing up my mind for other things.

Looks like the winter storm train will be rolling into the station soon. If you like cold and snow, then the next 3 weeks are going to rock.

Will be updating this evening and changing the site format a bit. Any suggestions you have for improvements to the design are welcome.

chip said...

Hi Mr. Foot et. al.! It's getting a tad icy out there tonight (Tuesday). Might it be a morning for a 2 hour delay for the Hereford Zone, if they do such things any more...? I am eager to hear about Thursday night into Friday's predictions. I have seen anywhere from flurries and snow showers to 1-3 inches plus freezing precip. Eagerly awaiting the word from Mr. Foot! :)

Mr.B said...

NAM stinks. However it's starting to trend north. Lot's of calls for 3-6" or 4-8" here I hope so.

Mr.B said...

GFS follows the NAM. I hate this winter. I really do.