Saturday, January 13, 2007

START YOUR ENGINES

for the Mid-Altantic and Northeast
Storm # 1
Target time: January 22-25.
Storm # 2
Target time: January 29-February 1
Data and analysis to back up this forecast in progress..post expected early Thursday AM.

42 comments:

Anonymous said...

I have heard other rumors about a storm for the East coast in 10 days from other sources. Just in time for finals for high schools in Baltimore County.

Mr.B said...

Bring it on. It's about time!!! Euro showing a storm during this time.

Anonymous said...

Linda- Welcome back. Snow or no snow, we missed you.

Anonymous said...

Yay!! Lets hope this comes to fruition. Welcome back. When Foot comes, usually good things follow. Haha.

Anonymous said...

Great to hear from you mr. Foot, seems as though the general conscensus has been for this Jan 22-25 storm to be perhaps the largest of the season (obviously as of now, but even when all is said and done). HM had this date pinned in his winter outlook,I like our chances, but I would like them MUCH more if we could get the slightest bit of cooperation from the N Atlantic...

terpguy said...

Nice to see you're back.

I know from experience that your Wx forecasts are spot on....it appears, unfortunately, that your football picks lack the same accuracy... :(

Anonymous said...

Where is everybody?

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Not buying that there will be a snowstorm. Cold and dry at best for the rest of January.

Anonymous said...

LINDA- It feels so warm and yukky today, I really am hoping for snow, or cold. My brother lives in Oklahoma City, and he said that the state is just shutdown. Isn't he lucky?

Anonymous said...

RAY- Sorry to hear about the Ravens and Eagles everyone, hopefully my Pats will fare better, freezing drizzle all day today...YUCK!

Anonymous said...

RAY- JUST A LTTLE BIT OF HISTORY REPEATING....VINIATERI WHO??????????!!!!!! Now, if I could only buy a damn flake! : (

Anonymous said...

RAY- Scanning over historical data, observing similarities in the evolution of the major indicies, and the fact that the entire east coast has seen next to nothing in terms of snowfall here in mid Jan, I have concluded that I was drugged with crack cocaine the day I constructed my winter outlook. Here is my update:
Original Update
IMBY 75-80" 20-30"
Boston 60" 15-25"
NYC 40" 5-15"
Philly 40" T-10"
Bal 35-40" T-10"
DC 30-35" T-10"


Yes, I realize that we have a neg NAO decadal signal, which IMHO is meaningless in this "warm pool" year. This has been grossly overly relied upon by so many this year (INCLUDING ME), which has created a rather interesting parodox in my mind. The very same people who accused NOAA of "broad brushing" this el Nino as creating a warm winter (which turned out to be correct), hypocrytically broad brushed this winter as cold by means of an over reliance upon the "negative NAO decadal signal", which turned out to be incorrect. An analogy made by Jack O stands out in my mind with respect to the stock market, something about how trends can only be followed so long before seeing a deviation (blip), IE a rising stock will only rise continuously for so long before taking a step down. He compared this to the NAO decadal signal in that it has fallen for at least 3 yrs consecutivley, and it was due to take a step up (deviate), what better time than in a warm pool year? Well, like so many others I ignored this point, but it has never left my mind. Christ, how is that for digression!!?? The upshot of all this is that just because the trend has been for more neg NAO winters, does NOT mean that EVERY winter will avg a neg NAO, and does NOT mean that we should ignore very strong signals that are simply screaming otherwise! Some, not all of the people who are guilty of this, absolutley crucified NOAA for the same exact thing with respect to the el Nino creating a warm winter! Lets practice what we preach, people...ok?? Lets get back to meteorology, shall we.
In addition to the NAO decadal signal, I also realize that the el Nino is now weak west (is it ever NOT west oriented by mid Jan?), that a QBO nearing neutral, and ENSO climo favors more blocking, but folks I do NOT see everything lineing up for a big hit. I did, now I don't, so in the small chance that anyone values my opinion...GET OVER IT! As a result of the aforemetioned factors, there will be chances, but I suspect that the winter of our discontent will continue to be succesful at finding any reason at all to fail to produce major amounts of frozen precipitation. In this weenie's mind, this winter is the meteorological equivalent of footage of the ball rolling through Buckner's legs...repeatedly playing throughout my mind. As mother nature leaves us taped to a chair, forced to watch the second half of this god foresaken "winter" transpire, take solice in this... 5 short weeks 'til spring training. : )

Anonymous said...

I hope Mr. Foot gives an update today. No school right? Hopefully the kids will cooperate to let the computer free up for a little while!

Anonymous said...

I am hearing something about a snow event Thursday into Friday. That true?

Mr.B said...

Foot???????????? Where you at man?

John said...

I don't recall a winter in my 36 years living in Baltimore that has been as warm, or gone this long without wintery precipitation. Been very disappointing winter.

Newton said...

Margusity on AccuWeather is talking about a snow event for the Mid-Atlantic Thursday night. But with the water so warm, how much will lay on the ground?

E.H. Boston said...

What a dud of a storm.

I would much rather have your 70's in Baltimore than having it raining at 32.5 degrees anyday.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Today sucked, I have actually turned to ice, with temps around 27. Henry M? No way that storm comes to fruition.

Anonymous said...

I know on weather.com it is a comptuer generate forecast, but it is now showing only 2 of the next 10 days below freezing, and the other 8 over 40. It might not happen, but it does seem that weather men rely on these computers for the majority of their forecasting now, so I am starting to believe these 10 days outlooks.

Mr.B said...

0Z GFS Snow storm!!

Anonymous said...

RAY- Yea, they do reflect the general trends of the GFS, but they shouldn't be taken verbatim at long range. I should not have been so rude about this earlier though.

Anonymous said...

ERIC- GFS and NAM showing a snowstorm for SNE. Yet, the TV weathermen hesistant to put it into their forecasts.

Are they playing conservative or do they know something that I don't?

Anonymous said...

This is for Friday.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Eric, given the trend this winter, wouldn't you play it conservative? These really does have a shot, but I'll believe it when I see it. Hey, Mr. Foot, I see that you put the key in the ignition, but did you forget to turn it? What gives??

Anonymous said...

nice analogy

Anonymous said...

"Details to follow during the weekend"
the weekends been over for two days!!!!!

Anonymous said...

best timing ever!!!!!
right after midterms lookin forward to a snowday:-)

Anonymous said...

looks like the storm next week will be too far inland for snow here.

Anonymous said...

snow? I don't see any snow in the forecast.....where is foot? and what happen to out weekend update? school did have a 3 day weekend!

Mr. Foot said...

hey all y'all.. I know you like to pounce on me when I don't issue the forecast when I promise. You have to remember my house becomes a small daycare center on weekends, and there are 2 wild cards that sometimes change the plan.

The little event sliding northeast Thursday and Friday might be enough to coat the ground lightly along I95, but won't be enough to interrupt school.. unless of course you are in the interior of W Va, VA, Carolinas. There we might be looking at a moderate snow/ice event Thurs PM. It'll spring up quick so keep your eyes peeled to the temp and TWC.

Back to daycare duties

Anonymous said...

Thanks Mr. Foot. Hopefully a full update on storm 2 for Sunday night into Monday and Storm 3 later next week will be coming soon. We miss your thoughts and get antsy.

Anonymous said...

Storm #2 has no realistic chance of producing snow in the mid. atlantic. It will be caught up in the flow and out to sea. Don't see any trends indicating otherwise, but hey anything is possible, but there is no data to indicate otherwise.

Anonymous said...

Storm #2 is 96+ hours away, and the models aren't very good this far out, actually, they aren't very good 2 days out, so you can't just write it off.

Anonymous said...

UPDATE>UPDATE>UPDATE>UPDATE>UPDATE>UPDATE>UPDATE>UPDATE>UPDATE>UPDATE>UPDATE>UPDATE>UPDATE

Anonymous said...

Foot, in all respect, the first storm tomorrow night and Friday will be bringing more than a light coating to the I-95, unless you don't associate Boston with I-95 anymore. Just to the NW of BOS, may wind up with nearly a half foot of snow out of this one!

Anonymous said...

will the storm u are expecting for the 22nd to the 25th interrupt school at all?
both teachers and students worship u this time of year

Anonymous said...

That would be great if it does interrupt school - we have a couple of shots at snow in the next couple weeks. It has to hit a school day sooner or later.

Anonymous said...

BWI will not recieve more than 2 inches of snow in the next 7 days. The dynamics are lacking. There might be a shot after the 25th but not before that sorry:(

Mr. Foot said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Andy, Southern York County PA said...

It would be nice if it would snow for a change. I mean we need some real snow, not 2-4 inches, but snow measured in feet (Feet is the plural of Foot: pun intended.) Anyway, looking forward to an update and I hope all the data points to a positive solution. It's been a long time since powderhounds have gotten any snow in these parts.

Mr. Foot said...

modifying update plan...going to post very early AM Thursday.