WHAT DO YOU EXPECT?...
IT'S A GLOBAL WARMING WINTER
IT'S A GLOBAL WARMING WINTER
What else can I say...but welcome to your future. For those of us who love frolicking in snow and seeing the sun rise and set over a crisp white landscape sparkling with little twinkly crystals…you’re in the wrong country from now on. The media loves to blame our recent warm weather on El Nino, and that’s a nice easy answer for a less-than-patient public. It is also the wrong answer in my opinion. Previous El Nino winters which had readings very close to this year did not produce the long warm spells we have seen across the country. A close match for current conditions is the winter of 02-03, which featured a weak to moderate El Nino ( a seasonal warming of Equatorial waters in the East Pacific of .5 to 1.5 degrees C over a period of several months), but instead of weeks of warm weather, my school district (Baltimore County, Maryland) had 9 snow days. If we use that some unscientific data set, my district has seen our snowday count the past 5 years drop from 9 to 4 in 2004-05 to just 1 last year. Do you think there is any correlation between that and the well-known fact that the important “September Arctic sea ice” count has decreased every year for the past 4 years. Each September NOAA makes a comprehensive assessment of the amount, thickness and extent of floating Arctic sea ice. Each successive year since 2001, the measure of this ice has decreased, which means this September, there was less Arctic sea ice than last September, and so on. Two images from the Earth Observatory System Satellite:
The theory as it relates to snow cover and weather in the United States is simple. As the amount of ice in the Arctic circle decreases, it leaves behind a larger and larger area of darker water, which continues to absorb more of the sun’s energy. This in turn warms the water, the adjacent coastal areas as well as the low atmospheric levels above the water. In fact, since 1970 there has been a decrease of roughly 670,000 THOUSAND square miles of Arctic sea ice. Don’t you find that significant? Wouldn’t it seem plausible that with the Arctic losing more and more ice each year, it becomes increasingly difficult for the Ice cap to provide the “cooling effect” it does on the planetary climate patterns. Continental Polar air masses (read: High Pressure) in turn take longer to become the customary “Cold Canadian Highs” that charge southward in our winter because there is less ice providing a cooling effect on the air. The air simply takes longer to cool down, and the effect in increasing, perhaps geometrically.
So what WE in the U.S. are seeing is the results of that effect: A prolonged fall interspersed with warm spells, and a significant delay in the traditional arrival time of winter-like weather. Since the Arctic is not providing the influx of cold air from the Northern jet stream, and El Nino is weak to moderate, IT becomes the more dominant factor, but NOT because El Nino is simply "so strong it is controlling the weather pattern." My take on this pattern is that the lack of cold air has ALLOWED El Nino to take a larger role for a longer period of time because the customary "clash" of air masses this time of year has been delayed for at least a month.
OKAY FINE, OUR WEATHER IS BEING INFLUENCED BY GLOBAL WARMING. THANKS FOR CLEARING THAT UP, AS IF I DIDN'T KNOW. So what about the snow already?
Oh yeah, I was going to do some analysis of that on here sometime. Here it is:
Storm # 1: Projected for the January 22-25 time frame. Computer models continue to advertise some kind of Tennessee Valley system moving to the coast, which a moderately cold High placed to the north. Not the perfect setup when you consider the NAO is going Negative and that will tend to push storms more to the south. The following set of graphics are three models that indicate what is anticipated for 7AM January 22. First,the GFS:
OKAY FINE, OUR WEATHER IS BEING INFLUENCED BY GLOBAL WARMING. THANKS FOR CLEARING THAT UP, AS IF I DIDN'T KNOW. So what about the snow already?
Oh yeah, I was going to do some analysis of that on here sometime. Here it is:
Storm # 1: Projected for the January 22-25 time frame. Computer models continue to advertise some kind of Tennessee Valley system moving to the coast, which a moderately cold High placed to the north. Not the perfect setup when you consider the NAO is going Negative and that will tend to push storms more to the south. The following set of graphics are three models that indicate what is anticipated for 7AM January 22. First,the GFS:
You can see the 540 thickness line (a good indicator of the general rain/snow line) is right over DC. Sorry Boston, this one will more than likely miss you altogether. Next the JMA:
What's significant about these two maps is they both show a storm reaching the Mid-Atlantic coast fairly juicy with a potential for rapid development once there. The culprit for this lies with the sea surface temperatures in that same area.
13 comments:
Your explanation of GW makes sense, however I was wondering about the rest of the country. The central part of the US seems to have been hit really hard this winter. Colorado and Texas especially. They seem to be getting above normal winter weather. I am just curious as to how global warming explains that. Thanks so much for your time.
Last year the Harrisbury PA area only had 5 inches of snow all winter! Now from the NWS about this winter:
"Overall the coolest weather of the season so far looks to stick
around a while...a Stark contrast to the record warmth we have
experienced. Still no widespread snows seem to be in the cards as
we move deeper and deeper into the season. Still see little chance
for the first inch of snow at either Harrisburg or Williamsport.
The records for their latest first inch of snow are Feb 13 1992
and Feb 4 1995 respectively. In fact Harrisburg still has not
registered their first measurable snow of the season. If no snow
is measured through Jan 23...this will break a record that has
stood since 1890".
WILL IT EVER SNOW? I DON'T THINK THIS YEAR WILL BE ANY BETTER. TIME TO SELL THE SHOVEL AND MELT DOWN THE SNOWBLOWER FOR SCRAP METAL. I'M PLANTING PALM TREES IN MY YARD!
So where is the storm update?
Any thoughts on the SNE snow event tonight. Its snowing in NYC.
Texas is the place to be.WHODATHUNK!!Crazy weather we are having. I'm ready to move, along with everyone else on this site.
All hope is lost!!!
Got a quick inch of snow this morning in cnj. Nice to see some white on the ground.
Very icy in Bucks county this morning.Not enough white though, Here's hoping that the winter is not lost.
Woburn, MA got nAdA.
Looks like there might be a chance for snow on the twelth of never! Just kidding, the 30th might be a good day for a blizzard.
Anyone have any predictions what this next "maybe storm will bring? Radar looks impressive in the mid section of the US, but question is how will the low track. Maybe Baltimore and York PA will get their first inch of snow from this. My call is 2 inches at most in our area.
Then you will all leap past Boston's current season snowfall total of a measely 0.8"
Maybe this is all payback for when I used to rub it in your faces back in the winter of 2004 and 2005 when Boston just kept getting pounded with over 100" and you guys got not that much.
I wish you luck. I hope you all get some snow...somebody on the east has to besides Maine.
I say 1-3 Southcentral/Southwestern pa.
Post a Comment