Wednesday, January 31, 2007

WHAT GOES AROUND, COMES AROUND


No the wheels are not coming off the wagon. Yes I know, you've seen or read your latest TV or online forecast and are wondering "what happened to the storm?" Look, I forecast different than most others, because I'm going to make a call and stick with it. If it ends up being wrong, I'll explain the reasoning, admit the errors and move on. If you follow winter storms this time of year, you are no doubt conditioned to expect that forecasters will be non-committal about storms sometimes right to the onset of precipitation. This is happening yet again because there is tremendous disparity between a number of computer models on exactly what the 2 different low pressure systems will do once near the East Coast. The reason for this is a heavy reliance on the US-favored model, the GFS (Global Forecast System) and the recent moisture or "QPF" guidance from HPC (the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center). The GFS has been drifting back and forth with this storm for several days now, and with just ONE or TWO runs, now everyone starts to backtrack their forecasts. In reality, there is an equal chance the next two computer simulations (or "runs") will reverse that trend and you'll see everyone lean back toward a snowier forecast on Thursday, overnight and into Friday. I've seen it before and wouldn't be surprised if this time tomorrow night there's snow on the ground, and the local NWS (which has so far refused to go beyond a "Hazardous Weather Outlook" will be forced to raise a Winter Weather Advisory seemingly out of nowhere.

More importantly, for those who know some of the history behind this website, you should also know the most critical forecast model just completed it's on and only run for this storm earlier today: the FCFM. The results are in! The "Fruit Cup Forecast Model" (currently located at Sparrows Point High School in SE Baltimore County) predicts the following:

"Enjoy your long weekend." I am not making this up. The fruit cup has made it's case, and the science to me seems sound and credible. Forget the billion dollar government servers, I'm sticking with the fruit cup on this storm. We shall find out who wins soon enough. Next update Thurs AM.

4 comments:

Mr.B said...

Foot what about me here in Greencastle.?

Anonymous said...

Well, Mr. Foot we should chalk one up for you.. Winter Weather Advisory now issued for 9 AM.... Marty Bass is saying a low impact weather event... :::raising eyebrows::: Is he right or wrong!?

Early dismissal or late opening.. I NEEDASNOWDAY!! :)

terpguy said...

Marty Bass is to weather forecasting as the Titanic was to well-designed ocean liners.

Mr. F isn't making a "wishcast", I agree that he has some legitimate arguements with the GFS and HPC.

Do your snowdance....

Mr. Foot said...

Sorry for the late posting this morning. Trying to feed two children, and drink my coffee and eat breakfast and finish typing the post.

Mr. B...you'll get maybe 3 max, 1 from the frontrunner and another 2 from the overrunning and then maybe .5 from downsloping and wrap around. ok that's 3.5.

Let's just say my students completed our school-wide recycling yesterday in anticipation of not being able to get it done today or tomorrow.

Hey what happened to Julee? Is she under a gag order up there due to lack of snow. Or maybe her standards for snow are so high that she won't even consider talking until there's at least 6 inches on the ground.