Tuesday, February 6, 2007

AND BABY IT ALL COMES DOWN TO THIS!
- Darrell Waltrip playing the character of "Darrell Cartrip" in Disney's Cars

What is "this?" It's the sweetest possible setup yet for a repeat of the February 2003 President's Day Storm on the East Coast. Little explanation is needed because the signals have been pointing in this direction for some time now. Granted there are other factors that must come into play, but this projection from the European model shows an Arctic high trying to nose it's way in front of a moisture laden low-pressure system rolling out of the southern plains. The timing of this would put it well inside the period I have scheduled for Kahuna # 1: February 13 to the 18th. The real question is going to be: Will this end up being "between the 13th-18th," or "FROM the 13th to the 18th" Do you get it? Notice the colorized upper air flow pattern, classic setup to force this storm right into that cold air dome. I'd like to say that Principal Shouldice of Dundalk Middle scored the coup on this one before me, and he is now the Prognosticator Extraordinaire since he noticed the European model trend before I did.

Feb Storm 2A
Now would you look at that. Is this map ever a thing of beauty. I know it's just one model run of the European, but this map has Major East Coast Snowstorm written all over it. We're talking 12 inches plus in all the I-95 major cities, and that might be a conservative number. There is so much to explain on this map it's making me tired, so I'll have to discuss it in more detail tomorrow morning.
Feb Storm 2B


ABOUT TONIGHT'S STORM

Yes Virginia, you'll see some snow out of this, but amounts will be much lighter from DC to Baltimore and northward. I doubt areas east of the mountains will see more than 2 inches, and I'm skeptical of the call for an inch in Baltimore. I do think the timing of the storm along with cold overnight road surfaces will cause many schools in West Virginia, Western Maryland and Virginia to have 2-hour delays Wednesday morning. But the Baltimore Metro area...better plan to be up on time tomorrow.

14 comments:

John of Rosedale, MD said...

Well it presidents day weekend has had some memorable storms in the past, let's hope we can repeat history. Tomorrow AM commute could be interesting with these cold temps it will not take much to make the roads a mess. Looks like another 2 hr delay possible.

Anonymous said...

ohh goodness... did you use a DISNEY quote just for kicks and giggles!?! AHHHH!! Ok Mr. Foot.. am bringing the Field Trip Crew back from DISNEY WORLD on the evening of the 13th.... Would be nice to get "delayed" in ORLANDO... but I would enjoy seeing the SNOW STORM this time... We were in Orlando in 2003 kickin up our heels....

:)

E.H. Boston said...

I told you all...THE KAHUNA IS COMING BECAUSE I WILL NOT BE HERE.

I'm telling you...

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

We need to send EH away more often. Every winter would be great. Let's petition Washington for annual winter banishment! Alas, I'm still here so it won't snow.

Mr.B said...

I will get -2" tonight and like it!

anonymous21 said...

Any snow is better than none. I'll be happy to see anything at all.

E.H. Boston said...

Oh no...Mr. B will get to 2" before me!

I think I'm in the contest with him.

Mr.B said...

e.h you got me wrong. I am getting neg. 2" inches tonight. It's going to be crazy, snow falling backwards up into the air.

Mr. Foot said...

Hey all y'all... I'm not likin what I see on the radar. Looks like this puppy is falling apart over the mountains. All poor Mr. EH can do is just experience the snow vicariously through us from 500 miles away.

I see reports of moderate snow in VA but it looks like the precip is breaking up once it gets to the mountains. Think I'll go to bed early so I have time for an early AM post on Kahuna 1. If we get anything more than a few flurries here in Dundalk I will be very surprised. Will LWX have the second embarrassment in a week's time when they have to pull the snow advisory tonight? see you in the morning

Mr.B said...

Wow what a nice clipper system. Not! This winter can be over for all I care. I don't care if there is storms on the way. DIE!!!!! winter 06-07!

Mr. Foot said...

Ooopsie daisy, there's at least 2 inches outside my door and it is snowing heavily right now. Guess the clipper tapped some atlantic moisture on it's way east. Sure looked weak last night though but I'm glad to see this held together.

Anonymous said...

BCPS... CLOSED... waitin on the rest of the list...

Mr.B said...

About a inch here. School not likely closed or delayed.

Anonymous said...

tick tock tick tock.. c'mon HoCo make some kinda decision early... I could use the day to pack!

Carroll and Frederick now closed... sheeshh.. even the Community College in HoCo has made a decision to open late..