Thursday, February 1, 2007

"JUST AS YOU SHOULD, CAPTAIN"


-Commander William Riker, from Star Trek The Next Generation commenting on how Captain Picard, having been recently captured by the Borg, was being forced to attack the Enterprise, but was doing this in a way so as to not harm the crew on the ship.


Okay fine, you thought that was a weird introduction for a weather update. Hey, is it any weirder than waking up this morning to discover "Winter Weather Advisories" plastered all over the place? I thought that as of last night this storm was falling apart? Yeah, whatever. Just look at the National Radar and tell me if that looks like a decaying storm. Oh, you mean the National Weather Service had to quickly reverse course and ramp up the forecast overnight? Well I wonder why that would be. You don't suppose it's because they realized the one computer model run from last night was actually an outlier...and that we knew all along the precip shield would be making it much farther north than the computer were projecting? So I say, "just as you should" because hard data and observations coming in from radar and the ground are proving this storm is producing more moisture over a larger area and sooner than expected. I figured once it got to the coast, influence of the departing high would juice it up and this is what we're seeing.


HERE'S THE FINAL WORD ON THIS STORM


SCHOOL TODAY: An early dismissal is now less likely due to the atmosphere not being moist enough at the surface to support accumulating snow. The sun will also negate some of the precip in the upper levels. The exception will be southern and western Virginia, which could see icing develop later today.


SCHOOL FRIDAY: Looking at how all the forecasts have come around to the solutions posted earlier, I am still confident that conditions on the ground tomorrow morning throughout the Baltimore Metro area will force schools to close. My general call remains exactly what I told my students Wednesday: All snow west of I-95 and north of Washington, up to 2 inches. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain from I-95 south and east across the bay to the Eastern shore. Were this to be just snow falling at 32 degrees, I'd be inclined to say 2-hour delay. If we wake up at 5AM and see a wintery mix still coming down, it is still likely districts will START with a delay and then reevaluate. But since all area schools have not yet seen an inclement weather cancellation this winter, and it's early in a new quarter... and fully one third of Baltimore County will be covered with varying amounts of ice... I think you get my drift.


POINTS NORTH: Mostly snow north from Cecil County to Philly and New York. That stage of the storm I will provide a more point specific forecast tonight, but several inches seems reasonable for you.


For those on the EMAIL update list, I will send a brief update at some point this morning or afternoon, followed by a reality check this evening on how the forecast is panning out.

7 comments:

Mr.B said...

Foot

Sounds good i'll take 3.5" for this in no time. I will update you durning the storm. Already had a light dusting this morning.

Frank said...

Like usual I am on the line where mix/snow is forecast to set up. Sometimes here in CNJ I am west enough, other times I am too far east and get the slop. I hope this time we stay mostly white.

E.H. Boston said...

So soon to forget about Boston?

WEYTYN said...

Hey Mr Foot-
hmmm a posting @ 11pm last night -
then 5:56 AM this morning.
thats a net difference of 6 hours and 56 minutes. Is that enough time to-
figure the forecast-
work yourself into a dither over it
get any sleep,
get yourself up after no sleep and ready for the day
get the girls ( all three of them....four/five if a grammy (s) was/were present) up and ready for the day,
check the fruitcake computer model and then report to us. NOW THATS A BUSY FOOT.

LATER!

Mr.B said...

Well I knew it was to good to be true. Zippo on the way for me again. WEEEEE the sucky winter continues!!

Mr. Foot said...

I am home now and yes yes I know all your TV forecasters are totally backing off the storm. I like how Norm Lewis said how all the precip has now moved east of us and off the coast when fully 80% of the energy is still south and west of us. Why should I be surprised at that though.

I'm not going to write off a storm until we reach the point that moisture has left the area. I will do a pre-mortem to explain how the forecast could bust and why that would happen. I personally don't get upset over being wrong with a forecast (I know all you will!) because it gives me a chance to explain what went wrong.

I am reminded of January 26, 2000... the ETA model predicted 1 inch for Baltimore. We got 17 inches. That was a great forecast huh? So let's see what that second wave does in the south before we throw in the towel.

If we're in on time tomorrow, then I'll post a picture of me wearing the bag, just to show you it's all in good fun and remember that the actual weather is the best computer model of all.

Another update sometime this evening as time and my girls permit.

Anonymous said...

Whatever happens, happens. Part of the fun is waiting for the expected snow. If we don't get it this time, maybe the next will surprise us. Keep the faith!! It really is nice to see you back a little more Mr. Foot.