Friday, February 16, 2007

"There's a big blue sky waiting right behind the clouds."
- Brad Paisley, from Disney's Cars soundtrack song of the same title.

European Projection For Feb 22

There'll be a big blue sky out there today, and nary a cloud in the sky, but it doesn't mean a big warmup is coming, at least not until next week. When conditions do begin to moderate, it will be in advance of a great big rainstorm that according to the European will take aim on the East Coast, dumping heavy wet snow in the interior. I'll post more details on this over the weekend, but this looks to be a SlopKahuna for I-95, ending as brief snowshowers. West of I-81 however it could be another SuperKahuna if it draws in enough leftover cold air from eastern Canada. The issue will be one of ratios. It should be cold enough for snow, (and I'm just making a crapshoot here..) but with a 8:1 or 6:1 ratio in the interior Appalachians from West Virginia to Upstate New York... you know what that means. I know many will say it's too early to make a call on accumulations, but with a high pressure ridge sitting off the Southeast coast pumping abundant moisture into a system already loaded with Pacific punch... well let's just say Oswego, NY had better get those roofs cleared off mighty quick. When this falls, it won't be light and fluffy.

You can probably see what happens following this storm. It rolls up into the Canadian maritimes, and sends that final piece of Arctic air back in the Yukon screaming down to the East Coast. There are rumblings in the long range of March coming in like a lion, in the 3/1-4 time frame. Any big storm occuring into March has got to have all the elements perfectly perfectly aligned, because higher sun angle can negate snowfall and turn calls of 6-12" into 3" real fast. Suffice to say both systems will be closely watched, and this time we'll use a bit more human input than total reliance on the computer models.

Happy Friday everyone! Remember to register for the automatic email feature with Feedblitz in the right column so you can receive updates whenever a new post is published.

15 comments:

terpguy said...

SO-O-O-O

Ragarding final comment on last post...politics IS raising it's head...eh???

As you said...'tis FRIDAY!!

Deanna said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Deanna said...

Well, I guess Politics does win. I am just happy it was a test day, easy day for me.

Hopefully, we use some more snow days ... then we will not have as many inservice days up here in HarCo. Not that I do not enjoy them, it is just more fun to be at school with kids!

Mr. Foot, how about a snow day on my birthday, 3/15? We actually had a blizzard on that day back in '93!

Mrs. Burke said...

Mr. Foot, just wanted you to know, I am formally "deanna."


Just incase my kids are ever interested in your forecast!

Mr. Foot said...

Welcome home. Good that we got a day in, my student and I made effective use of the time and transplanted our seedlings from the Greenhouse. Had it been a blizzard, kahuna, etc we would have lost those plants completely.

Will post this evening on the final chapter of winter 06-07.

Here's the playlist:

Coastal SlopKahuna Feb 22-23 ending as snowshowers with possible hard freeze on 23rd.

Potential SuperKahuna 2 during period March 1-4, then I think that is the end of the storm pattern for this year.

Anonymous said...

Go figure... 70+ degrees in January and now that we are preparing to go into the Spring Sports season weather is gonna wreak havoc eh? So, have indoor practice plans scheduled for March 1?

wvmommyof4 said...

Mr Foot I just noticed that our 7 day forecast has been changed next week from all rain to now rain/snow on wed and snow on Thursday. Could this mean anything?? I wasnt sure we were interior enough for snow from this system?

Mr. Foot said...

Hi WVMommyof4.. sorry I haven't talked to you in a while, was wrapped up in trying to pinpoint all the plot twists of our last Da Vinci Code-like winter storm.

(warning: long comment, no time to post this AM, monitoring Saturday Detention shortly)

Speaking of twists and turns, your weather channel local forecast is most definitely going to flop all around from rain/snow to all rain to all snow to cloudy, changing about every 6 hours. I see all of our NWS 7-days are trending slightly cooler and since yesterday have thrown in a hint of snow/rain mixed. The Euro continues to show an absolute "monsta of a bomb" as EH would say, but all other models are out of the country --er out to lunch. Or maybe the Euro has too many lattes too early.

I still lean on this being a massive rain storm with cold discharge behind the storm, raising the potential for a hard freeze following if there's standing water left behind. There's simply NO high pressure anyway nearby by Day 6 to warrant concerns this will be a SnowKahuna.

However there is the March 1958 wildcard scenario that is investigated by Elliott Abrams, among others.

I know, Julee (which by the way, congrats on the Blue Ribbon event, got it in ::sigh of relief::) will say: "LOOK, you've brought up the March 58 specter before to no avail. Why would it be any different this time."

Reminds me now of a great quote by the fictional Vice President in Day After Tomorrow.

Anyway, point is March 1958 for those who don't know was a horiffic heavy wet snow in interior Maryland and SE PA among other places. My grandparents home in Devon PA had at least 3 feet and Frederick County, MD had 4 feet. I can only imagine what Martinsburg received. Temps were not cold before, during or after the storm. Right around 32 or even warmer. It was a confluence of dynamics in the upper atmosphere that led to the incredibly crushing snow amounts, not "fresh cold air" at the surface provided by the classic High in SE Canada setup we traditionally require for a big Nor'Easter.

My aunt tells me she recalls school closed for 2-3 weeks in Chester County, PA.

Could that happen again? Well I'm not going to hype-monger about, but the arrangement suggests it is remotely possible in the next 2-3 weeks. If it does not happen with the Feb 22-23 system, the last likely chance would be Mar 1-4. Then it's on to spring, albeit slowly.

For intricate details, go to Accuweather.com and look for Elliot Abrams blog, he paints a scenario but does not lock on it.

More investigative reporting on this "PhantonKahuna" this afternoon.

(how's that for a long answer to a short question WMO4?)

Mr. Foot said...

If anyone wants some insight on the March 58 storm, do a google search on it, and look for the Dr. Dewpoint Article, among others.

Setup for March 22 is similar to Euro projection for Feb 22

wvmommyof4 said...

Thanks! I really appreciate it:)

Ed-ETHS said...

For those who have the time over the 3-day weekend, a fun look back at Maryland winter events since 1772 is at

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/Historic_Events/md-winter.html

Sorry if this is a URL already mentioned.

Mr. Foot said...

Ed.. thanks for that link. I will add it to a section on blizzards.

Having semi-fond memories of Feb 03, just not the shoveling. What will it ever take to get a good smackin' snowstorm around these parts I don't know.

Mr. Foot said...

Thanks Mrs. Burke. Boy you timed that well.. having a test during the climatologically snowiest week and month of the year! Still snuck it in there despite all the calendar disruptions, well done.
better yet..now you have a 3 day weekend to grade it all. Gosh I wish my predictions panned out that well!

Mr. Foot said...

Is it me or does the radar look more widespread than it was supposed to? Maybe that's just virga. Anyone getting snowfall? January 25, 2000 all over again?
wouldn't that be neat. 1 inch forecasted, 17 inches fell.

Go to the Mid-Atlantic Weather column and check out the current radar!

wvmommyof4 said...

we are getting snow. we probably have about a quarter of an inch. sorry about the one handed typing. my other hand is busy trying to keep baby fingers from getting to the keyboard.