Saturday, March 31, 2007

YOU'VE GOT TO BE KIDDING...
EASTER COLDER THAN CHRISTMAS ?!?


While I can't claim ownership to that headline (Joe Bastardi of Accuweather alluded to it first) the indicators are clearly there and shown on the GFS projection for early Sunday morning, April 8. As I mentioned in my blurb last week... frost on the bunny ears is looking more likely. In Baltimore, the daily high temperature recorded at BWI for December 25, 2006 was 50 F, and the 24-hour low 30 F. In Philadelphia, the same numbers were 49 F and 33 F respectively. If the upper level 540 thickness line (dashed blue line below) does get to the Virginia/NC border as shown, I would expect the map above to verify fairly closely. That means Easter morning the Mid-Atlantic may be looking at widespread 20's and just breaking into the mid 40's by afternoon. But wait! It gets worse. (I know, I wish this was an April Fool's joke, but it really is not.)
gfs_slp_192s
You should know both the GFS and Euro have begun to advertise a fairly intense (and unwelcome) cold snap to enter the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by late in the week, starting as early as this coming Thursday. This may be followed by a series of Low pressure systems forming along the southern boundary of that cold air. The map below is a 10 day hint of snow possibility on or about Tuesday, April 10, but it is just a very early projection.

As with all storms, this one will need "the right amount of cold and moisture at the right times." Yes, I know you're thinking "how could this be, a snowstorm in APRIL? Come on." Well, April 6 in 1982 and 2003 produced memorable snows in east central PA and New Jersey. In fact as late as April 23, 1986 there was an an inch of snow that morning at my home in suburban Philadelphia, and northern New Jersey/southern New York received 2 feet of heavy wet snow from the same storm. I remember this well because exactly one year earlier on the same date in 1985, Philadelphia recorded a record high of 94 F along with many other cities in the Northeast.

So despite the strength of the April sun, there can still be snow this time of the year and this will no doubt dishearten the spring-a-lings like me who are ready to start planting and are so totally done with the snow this year. In fact I even reverse-jinxed the storm because I told my wife, "Look dear, I'm putting away the shovel and salt (for the second time)...that means it'll snow one more time." Thus the Adventure of Winter 06-07 continues yet again, so stay tuned and this coming Friday we'll revisit the potential of a final? snowstorm once my quarterly grade scans are done and in on time.

17 comments:

Linda said...

Hi everybody. Other than frost and foolishness, I guess we soon will be in the spring mode. Sorta sad that winter is over, and I hope that the summer isn't too hot, but it will be what it't gonna be. When I moved into the house that I am in now, 16 years ago, it snowed on April 6th. We had a huge pile of dirt in our back yard, because the property wasn't graded yet, and it looked like we had 12 feet of snow!

crazedsnowboarder said...

Does that mean that there will not be any snow later in this month and that accumulating snow for this year is over?

crazedsnowboarder said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Russ said...

Mr. Foot,
It does look like the GFS is bringing in cold air by the Saturday before Easter--- does a storm dare try to form along the coast?

E.H. Boston said...

What is going on?!

Opening day is Monday and its 2 days until April, the sun is shining, flowers are sprouting, and the fields in SNE are jam packed with teams practicing. Spring has sprung in Boston!

Or has it? Midweek forecasts are turning quite cold and stormy around these parts for Wednesday through Easter Sunday with multiple storm threats. First one comes tomorrow night into Monday with mostly rain for much of the NE.

Then there is another one on the maps for around Thursday as a low pressure tries to form along the east coast and move ever so slowly along the coast bringing some snows especially for inland locations. GFS may be underdoing QPF, but its showing a storm. Last threat, more of speculation, comes around Easter Sunday with a storm that is just starting to be picked up by the models, not the ones on Deal or No Deal, but the computer models.

Each one of these storms looks to be getting progressively colder even though we are heading closer and closer to the Summer Equinox. First snow threat for SNE comes late week, Thu, as someone will see accumulating snows up here in the Boston area.

Even you guys down south have chances of snow going into the Easter holiday weekend. I know that everyone is pretty much going into spring mode, including me, I like sitting on my patio in the baking sun and could probably do without the snow, but this will be fun to watch and heck if we get a good snowfall, it won't last more than a couple of days at most.

Could we be talking about a white Easter in parts of the east and snowed out games in the NE as the baseball season commences tomorrow night? I would say, the chances of all this happening are elevated to almost likely with the current pattern we are about to embark upon.

Enjoy our wintertime temperatures late week, in April. UV indexes are approaching 6 for SNE and 7-8 for the MA, which are very high and if you are out in the sun for more than 30 mins, put on that sunblock because even if its in the 30's and 40's, that strong springtime sunshine will BURN YA!

Go figure.

NOW EVERYONE WAKE UP FROM YOUR SLUMBERS. GEEZ

E.H. Boston said...

*Correction, tomorrow would be April 1st. My bad...d'oh.

Mr. Foot said...

Clarification:

The "foolishness" would be that Mother Nature would play a joke on us by robbing a potentially warm Palm Sunday with chilly, rainy weather.

But I a sticking to the frosted bunny ears forecast, and there's lots of historical support:

http://www.intellicast.com/Almanac/MidAtlantic/April/

go take a look and see if you remember any of those storms.

Julee said...

Absolutely remember Orioles Opening Day snow (was that April 6th?). Everyone was stunned.
Snow on Easter? THAT will just be freaky!
Tell your girls that it won't keep the Easter Bunny away though, my bunny Stanley LOVES snow!

E.H. Boston said...

Are you kidding me???

EXPECT A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET TO DEVELOP OVER SRN NH AND NRN MASS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN LATE. COULD SEE 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE ZONES BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IT'S POSSIBLY THAT AN INCH OR TWO COULD EVEN
FALL ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST NORTH OF ROUTE 2...MEANING MIDDLESEX
AND ESSEX COUNTIES.

E.H. Boston said...

Winter Storm Watches have been posted for all areas just north of the MA/NH border for 6"+ of snow esp in the higher elevations.

E.H. Boston said...

The storm has started here in Boston...Initial batch of precip is actually in the form of SNOW!

Big fat wet flakes falling from the sky. Temp is 38.7 so I don't know how long it will stay snow, but interesting to see nonetheless!

Up to 12"+ in the mountains...skiing will be GREAT this first full weekend of April.

E.H. Boston said...

Its been snowing to beat the band for the past 2 hours. I have a solid 1.5" of wet snow!!!!

What is going on...the NGM was right with the cold solution??!

E.H. Boston said...

All roads are snowpacked, even the main roads!!!

E.H. Boston said...

And the PLOWS are out!

crazedsnowboarder said...

I wish I lived in Boston lol

Mr. Foot said...

Freeze Watch for greater Baltimore/DC area. Told you there'd be frost on the bunny ears.

DelMarVa might get it's biggest snow of the season on Saturday.

Go E.H. get that snow to pile up. What a spring/winter

After all this watch us hit 90 before the month is over!

E.H. Boston said...

After my 5PM post, the heavy snow turned to sleet then rain until about midnight and after that we went back to moderate snow and all said and done, many areas north and west of Boston picked up between 1-3" of snow. Just north of me saw 3-6", with 6-9" just across the border and then after that you get into a nice 10-20" range from central NH for much of ME.

Since Monday, Sunday River Ski Resort in ME has seen 31"+ of snow! Talk about nice late season skiing.

Now its your turns...VA and DE could be seeing 3-4" of snow tomorrow night!!!

Next week will be another stormy cold week for the East!

Ok...watching Matsusaka right now!