Thursday, March 15, 2007

MORE WHITE THAN GREEN
THIS ST. PATRICK'S DAY

St. Patricks Day Storm Snowfall 2

The Weather Channel's current snowfall projections, of which I generally agree, and will be adding a roundup of site-by-site predictions for the Mid-Atlantic this evening, along with analysis and potential impacts to school on Friday as well as Saturday activities.



COULD THIS BE WHAT'S IN THAT POT
AT THE END OF THE RAINBOW?

St. Patricks Day Storm 2007

This morning's (12Z) North American Mesoscale (NAM) 84-hour model projection for snowfall this weekend by 8PM St. Patrick's Day. For those of you wanting one more snow, looks like the luck o'the Irish will be with ye. Though the event is 48 hours out as of this writing, the Boston NWS has issued Winter Storm Watches for their forecast area, and everyone who pays attention to this stuff throughout the Mid-Atlantic has begun to hear the first mention of snow in their weekend forecasts. Hard to imagine I'm sitting with the windows open, enjoying what feels like a mid-summer breeze, looking at the current temperature of 71 F, and writing to you about a SNOWSTORM on Saturday. Doesn't get more surreal than that, now does it? My colleagues at school recall that in the days preceding the March 1993 Superstorm (14 years ago this exact moment by the way), they were walking around Baltimore's Inner Harbor in shorts. But even then temperatures in the days prior to that storm were seasonable 50's and 60's. Today at my school, we hit 85 F in the sun and 80 F in the shade, and it was great fun telling students and teachers... "Ready for a White St. Patrick's Day? Har de har har."

As with every Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Storm, this one is bound to be just as complex as all it's predecessors. It has been a busy week and I will endeavor to revise my analysis from the previous post below for this late-season blockbuster which I have maintained since Sunday has the potential to deliver some areas their highest 24-hour snowfall of the year thus far.

REGIONAL SUMMARY Posted 10:02 PM 3-14-07
by Northeastern Forecasting Correspondant Mr. E.H. of Boston, MA.

Overall, it looks like Southern New England and possibly New York City's suburbs will be getting the most snow out of this storm. Those areas will receive their biggest eastern snowfall of the year this weekend and on St. Patrick's Day to boot! However, there will be enough cold air for the Mid-Atlantic once this storm gets its act together off the coast on Friday that areas near or just slighty to the WNW of the cities of Baltimore and DC will see a little wet accumulating snow. Philly and eastern PA may pick up their healthiest snowfall of the season as well with the heaviest snowfall totals to the north.

Into NYC, it looks like there will be advisories and warnings being posted, especially just to their north and northwest. Snow Advisories and Winter Weather Advisories will likely extend all the way down in MD and VA as well. Instability flurries and snow showers will encompass all of the OV and Great Lake states this weekend and will likely deliver a couple inches of snow to this region as well. Eastern TN may even see some accumulating snows this weekend as well! Winter is not over yet.

NORTHEAST SUMMARY: by Forecasting Correspondant Mr. E.H. of Boston, MA.
I am seeing this storm affecting Southern New England (SNE) in 2 rounds.

THURSDAY: ROUND 1. Starts in earnest tomorrow afternoon with rain, moderate to heavy falling along with falling temperatures into the mid 30's by late PM. Rain changes to snow late Thu night and accumulates to the tune of 2-4" Boston metro by the Fri AM rush.


FRIDAY: ROUND 2. Maybe a lull until early PM in SNE then heavy snows move in for the area. Rain on the Cape. Snow accumulating quickly. Late Fri PM, time of the 6 hour period of possible changeover for eastern SNE. Not sure this will happen for areas just WNW of Boston. These areas may be all right for mostly snow. Another 6-10" of wet snow possible with this round.

So, my preliminary forecast is for a general 8-14" of snow for the Boston-Worcester-Providence-Hartford areas by the end of the storm late St. Patrick's Day night.


ANALYSIS: Posted 8:43 PM Tuesday 3-13-07 by Mr. E.H. of Boston.


Snowfall accumulations look to be in the low to moderate Warning criteria for Southern New England. A Winter Storm Warning would be issued in SNE when 6"+ is imminent if the when the Watch was issued at least 12 hours prior and 8"+ is imminent when it is forecasted 24 hours or more prior to the onset.


What I am thinking is that there is a seperate rain maker that moves in tomorrow for Boston and SNE that delivers locally heavy rainfall after highs will range from 70-75 degrees. That lingers as scattered rain showers during the day Thursday with highs in the 50's and dropping by the evening rush. Thursday night there is still spotty showers and a few of these showers may turn to snow showers and flurries, especially in southern NH and VT Friday morning. Then there will be a lull in the action most of the day Friday before the heavy duty snow falling at temperatures of 30-33 moves in. That will continue all night Friday night into the early afternoon hours of Saturday possibly ending as a period of drizzle for eastern SNE. The critical rain/snow line will probably be around Plymouth to the SE portion of MA and RI.

To the north of there, there will be strong NE winds off the nice and cold 37 degree ocean water and with a high parked perfectly over Quebec, enough cold air will be here from Hartford to Providence to Boston for a good sized snowstorm. Still early, but it looks like this type of snow will be very wet with snow to water ratios of 6:1 SE and 8:1 in northern SNE.


Further north into NH, VT, and ME may see ratios of 15:1, but that is where less in the way of snow will fall, the way it looks like at this point. This all moves out Saturday night and we fall rock bottom into the single digits both below and above zero in NNE to teens in SNE. 20 in the cities. Sunday will be the day of digging out if you haven't already or just wait for the sun to do its job. Its almost April for goodness sake...the snow will be melted in a few days!


Nonetheless, highs Sunday and Monday will be quite cold with highs in the mid to upper 30's with breezy NW winds making it feel like we are in the heart of winter again. We stay "cool" until the end of next week, and then it looks like we will warm up the whole country again, back to normal and above normal temperatures. 50's and 60's in the NE...60's to around 70 in the MA.


--end forecast and analysis from Mr. E.H. -- Many thanks for a fabulous and comprehensive overview! I could not have put something together this quality in the time available so the spotlight for this storm is all yours!


For Feedblitz subscribers, in the interests of time and brevity, this post and the one issued earlier in the week are going to be revised with current information. While you'll receive this message in your email, you'll need to go back to the website to receive the most up-to-date details as this and the post before it are going to be updated several times over the next 2 days.

42 comments:

E.H. Boston said...

I am seeing this storm affecting SNE in 2 rounds.

First round starts in earnest tomorrow afternoon with rain, moderate to heavy falling along with falling temperatures into the mid 30's by late PM.

Rain changes to snow late Thu night and accumulates to the tune of 2-4" BOS metro by the Fri AM rush.

Maybe a lull until early PM in SNE then heavy snows move in for the area. Rain on the Cape. Snow accumulating quickly.

Late Fri PM, time of the 6 hour period of possible changeover for eastern SNE. Not sure this will happen for areas just WNW of BOS. These areas may be all right for mostly snow.

Another 6-10" of wet snow possible with this round.

2-4" Round 1
6-10" Round 2

So, my preliminary forecast is for a general 8-14" of snow for the Boston-Worcester-Providence-Hartford areas by the end of the storm late St. Patrick's Day night.

Dr. Foot...your thoughts?

Mr.B said...

Give me a thunderstorm and I will be happy.

Mr. Foot said...

Good overview. Let's go with 8" as a general call for your area. More to the west, less to the east. Still looking over the model projections. I think this will become a "nowcast" storm earlier than usual. Lots of changes along the way in store during the event as well I think.

Laptop batteryfading. have to recharge. Will be bac...

Mr. Foot said...

You know, it really is fun to logon here and be able to have full confidence there is a cadre of nice, decent, honest hard-working people who are fun to read and write to about the weather.

It makes following the weather so much more fun for me, knowing that we all can interact in our own little community. So thanks for being here.

Dr. E.H. I'd really like to post your earlier writeup on the main blog along with the one above as the SNE summary. Are you ok with that? Will credit you as our Northeastern Forecasting Correspondant unless you wish another title.

Mr. B..hello again. Enjoy that warmth today out there? I know you'd rather see snow, and looks like you'll get your wish one last time. I can offer the same opportunity to you as well, if you'd like to serve as the Central PA Correspondant. I can post your summary and a link in the text back to your blog if you like.

I'll be happy just to concentrate on the MA..Eastern PA-NJ-PHL-DelMarVa-MD, NOVA, DC. Not giving up the forecaster reigns, just looking to share the spotlight.

Linda said...

Hi everyone, I really would love to see one more snow, and I do enjoy the hype before the storm, but I have to say, the map, beautiful as it is, I can't seem to find out where I am! I either need new contacts, or I have to go back to school fo geography!!Well anyway it keeps me guessing! Have a great night everyone, and lets think snow!!

Julee said...

Soooooo I'm wearing fur lined BOOTS to the St. Patrick's Day wedding?

All that Norm Lewis and his confreres will attest to is rain or "a few flakes" ... are they AFRAID to say "sn**?"

That's what I love about YOU Mr. Foot! You aren't afraid to suggest that we might have a freaky white St. Patrick's Day.

E.H. Boston said...

Dr. Foot, it is quite alright with me. The longest freestyle comment ever on this blog..ahaha.

00z NAM came in and keeps it mostly snow from BOS N&W...

Heavy snow at that with 6"+ easy.

Even gives us up to 6" with the initial moderate batch early FRI.

One thing is for sure. This is going to be a long duration storm. We will probably have reports of precip for 3 days straight.

2 days of which will be snow...48 hours of snow...thats my kind of storm.

It may be a close call for you guys as the cold comes in and the rain/snow line collapses to the coast.

I think it will make it to MD and the NJ Shore for some snow. Baltimore, I could see getting a slushy inch or two.

I love this winter forecasting, something we really didn't get to do this winter.

However, winter of 2004-2005, this would be a once or twice a week occurence it seemed with snowstorm after snowstorm.

By the end of the winter, we had a 12" snowstorm overnight in mid March and since our school district used all their snow days, school was OPEN on time. Plus after getting 100"+ prior to that, we pretty became upstate New Yorkers around here.

Now we have white knuckle driving with a flurry around.

Just a side note, my home thermometer hit 72.1 today. Right now it is 53.1 at 11:40PM.

A balmy breeze to beat.

Its a pleasure to post on this site. I am wicked happy that I found it some 3 years ago. Wow, how time flies.

Mr.B said...

Sure thanks. Yes it hi 75 yesterday and 76 today. Actaully to tell you the truth I don't want snow either. Bring on the 80-90 degree weather and thunderstorms. Snow is for Dec-March 10th. No later! It will melt in like 2 days anyways so why bother. Also I had a few lightning strikes tonight. Wow it is late goodnight.

Mr.B said...

Here we go. Winter storm watches. I don't like where this one is going. Snow ratios 8:1 or less. Eww this snow is going to be so freaking heavy. Like paste.

Ok Mr. Foot here we go with my analysis.

I am seeing this storm affecting me in 2 rounds the same as EH does.

First round starts this afternoon with rain, moderate to heavy falling along with falling temperatures into the upper 30's by late PM.

Rain continyes Thu night and then there is a breif lull sometime thurday eve or overnight. .50"-1.00" of rain expected

Fri it looks like rain changing to sleet at first then over to snow after 5pm. .20" of sleet and 4-6" of snow

Fri PM the snow starts to wind down after midnight with total accum. 6-10"

This storm is going to be very interesting none the less.

crazedsnowboarder said...

Sweet!!! I'm thinking no school tommorow b/c of the storm and my school already has a half day tommorow.

crazedsnowboarder said...

Mr. Foot, were you going to put up the live chat again?

wvmommyof4 said...

Unbelievable!! They are now calling for 2 to 4 inches of snow here tomorrow. I really thought all of the action was going to be to the north of us. We are going to Richmond tomorrow afternoon and was hoping for clear weather. Mr Foot please assure me that Richmond is too far south for any of this. We are returning on Sat. I hope we dont have any surprises.

crazedsnowboarder said...

Its odd that the weather channel still is saying that there will just be rain with a small possibility of freezing rain. I would have thought that they would have changed their forecast by now.
Then again from my experience they are almost never right.

kristine said...

OK Mr Foot, another big event in the hereford zone tomorrow...March Madness Fundraiser tomorrow night...will we still have it? A lot of work has gone into it by not only staff but students and for an incredible cause...heck- will we be in school?? on time or at all??? Winter storm watches are posted..so are flood watches...confusing for a meteorologically challenged person like me...so please no sugar coating- what are we getting...how much and when...most importantly- will we have school and events??

Mr.B said...

Mr. Foot enjoy your 3" of rain. Your friend the 18Z NAM. LOL

Mr. Foot said...

This is all just so hilarious to me! (Not for those of you who have to drive in it)

Also..thanks Mr. B for the analysis. Will post that tonight.

I told my students today that over a 36 hour period we'd go from 75 F
to 30 F and snowing by midnight Friday. Now that's March Madness.

kristine..no sugar coating right?
I know how much work goes into a fundraiser so I can appreciate the planning. But.. now you need to make backup plans. I'm a FR coordinator at my school and if there was a major event down here tomorrow...I'd start to adjust plans this exact moment. This front means business and will hit like a ton of bricks.

If the NWS forecast pans out, no one will want to drive in deteriorating conditions. Wx will go down hill fast on Friday.

I told you this would give you your largest accum of the season!

crazedsnowboarder..may not put up chat this time. Have an online grad course to complete and I need to monitor the chat so no promises. If BCPS pulls a fast one tomorrow and no school, we'll see.

Speaking of school... ha what a tough call. All depends on how serious things look. Can't see Wx changing so fast they call off tomorrow. But I can see this:

-CLOSED: Hereford Zone
-Early Dismissal So Balto County and a lot of other schools that may not read the tea leaves well enough because they are emotionally tied to the recent warmth,only to discover snow falling heavily by noon north of a Frederick-Towson-Bel Air line.

Update sometime later tonight. Post your questions and comments, will respond as best I can given family/dinner/bedtime.

Mr. Foot said...

Thanks Mr. B.

Sadly Dundalk will not see too much from any of this. Maybe 2" if we're lucky.

Mr.B said...

2" of snow or Rain?

kristine said...

Thank you for no sugar Mr F...I guess we will need to start making alternative plans. Cross our fingers that if we get anything it is worth it!

Julee said...

Hokie Smokes Bullwinkle! I've seen flood AND winter weather watches put up for the same areas! QUITE a dichotomy! How soon will they be able to make up their minds? Say yes to one and let the other one ride ...

Going to the same fund raiser as Kristine. Can't BELIEVE the HZ might be CLOSED tomorrow!
SERIOUSLY?????????????

Mr.B said...

Here is my forecast for now.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index

.phpshowtopic=129114&st=0&gopid=184

3457&#entry1843457

Mr. Foot said...

Julee...I can see it happening. This is a quick moving front. Look how fast the rain arrived. Temps dropped 10 deg in 1 hour here. The cold air behind it means business and there's a long way to go before 5AM tomorrow morning. The WSW means they can't rule out the possibility of this thing really cranking up big and fast overnight. Combine the energy of a a vigorous upper level low with the Arctic cold in an upper level trough, and presto! Insta-major storm. Just add 32 deg, moisture, a lot of surprised commuters. Shaken though, not stirred.

E.H. Boston said...

Winter Storm Warnings posted for much of SNE, except SE MA.

The entire warning is basically calling for 8-15" of snow...heaviest further inland you go.

I'm not feeling that good so I am going to keep it short and sweet and get ready for a nice cozy day by the fire tomorrow night.

Julee said...

Welllllll the AWS man installed all new weather gear on our station at HMS this afternoon so I DID have ocassion to watch the temps
d r o p p i n g and the winds stirring faster than I thought they might.
Of COURSE I'm not doubting YOU, just amazed at this sudden quirky turn of events! And isn't THAT what makes WEATHER FUN????!!!!!

Julee said...

EH

Sorry you're under the weather ... no snow shoveling fun for you tomorrow? FIFTEEN INCHES????
I'm JEALOUS!

Kristen said...

Can anyone tell yet how this will affect flights coming to BWI tomorrow around 6pm? Should I tell my boyfriend to take a cab up to Owings Mills?

Russ said...

Mr. Foot,
well I finally got things working to be able to post. I don't know how I did it!! I saw your weather channel map of snow, aren't they usually more conservative when it comes to accumaltions? Unless I read it wrong, we are in the 3-6" range? My gut feeling is the cold air gets situated before the costal low gets here. Does the low have any chance of tracking more east? Did Justin see you today about the lax playday on Saturday? I know a lot of questions, but it feels good to be able to post again.

Mr.B said...

The Weather Channel Mr. Foot? Who watches them ever? LOl I never watch it anymore. I think they have the 6-12" to far east in southern PA. More sleet is likely there.

Mr. Foot said...

TWC map was put there temporarily because it was the easiest map I found that made general sense. Been a busy tiring week and busy night. Power levels dropping rapidly at Foot compound, not sure if the brain will hold out much longer. So until I get can the GFS and NAM maps posted along with the QPF, TWC will have to stand for now.

Boy a surprise rain/snow day would be nice right about now,and that'll extend our "interrupted school" streak of weeks to 10!

Then July 4 will be what it was truly meant to be... a real INDEPENDENCE DAY! (At least for Howard County)

Mr. Foot said...

Russ:

I talked to Justin today and told him my fear is if there's a hint of snowfall across the region by Sat AM, they'll yank all activities since it's "only a Saturday" This is especially the case now that 1/2 the County under a WSW, even if that trends to a WWA for the top half, that still leaves half the teams in limbo and if you have a team from northern part of the county to compete against southern, you can't cancel activities in one half and leave other intact...so prudent thing to do is yank all of it.

Russ said...

Mr. Foot,
Thanx! I'll call Justin in the morning. it would be best to PP tomorrow so all those phone calls don't have to be made on Saturday. I have a funny feeling about this storm!

Mr.B said...

36.5 here with light rain.

wvmommyof4 said...

Just wondering how far south you feel there will be snow Mr. Foot.

Julee said...

The Accuweather guy (to the right on this page) is now downplaying the storm.
Said it will stall over D.C. allowing dry air, or warm air (some kind of air that I don't want) to lower the snow totals.
Did our snowy condtions change that fast?

Frank said...

Looks like for me in New Bruswick NJ (northern central) I am right on the 3-6 to 6-12 line. It would only take 3" for this to be the biggest snowfall of the season. Let's hope all of us see a nice one. It seems like the cold air is rushing in pretty fast. It is getting very interesting.

chip said...

Well, the knuckles are not itching, so I am going to say that Baltimore Cownie will be in on time tomorrow, including the H-Zone. It seems not that cold here in the Towson area, and there isn't even that much rain. If we get a delay or early dismissal, I'll wear a glove all day. If we're closed, I'll wear two. But regardless, thanks for your work Mr. Foot et al.!

Mr. Foot said...

Hello Frank and best wishes for a good snowfall up there, you deserve it after the series of major busts this winter!

I agree cold air is moving in quickly. Going to be an interesting storm that will continue to surprise us right to the end. (When have I said that before?)

Russ: Obviously we have time to see how this pans out. Models have been trending east and that would play into your scenario earlier of colder air being pulled in before storm arrives. I think there's a whole lotta energy on the playing field here and it's going to hit us with all the oompf it can muster. I would expect that be early Fri AM we can tell if PP the games for Sat looks to be best plan depending on where RA/SN line sets up.

wvmommy..this is a tough storm to crack but I see your area along with the Mr. B zone in Greencastle hitting 3" easily and perhaps up to 6" or more. The southern extent of this is likely to be DC. Richmond is totally out of the pic for this storm. Maybe leftover flurries on Sat, that's it.

To Mr. B and everyone..I am officially in power down mode and will be shutting off for the evening. Will be pulling an early AM shift to sort all this out then. My brain works better in AM than PM. Sorry Mr B I will post your 4cast tomorrow AM.

Night everyone, I have to rest up for an early start. I'll be back with a fresh post by 5AM tomorrow.

Misty said...
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William said...
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Mr.B said...
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E.H. Boston said...
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Mr.B said...

The sleet has begun in greencastle.