Sunday, March 11, 2007

ISN'T IT LOVELY?
LIKE THE GOOD OLD DAYS OF JANUARY...
UNTIL WINTER RETURNS NEXT WEEK,
JUST IN TIME FOR SPRING!

UNINTENDED BENEFITS OF AN EARLIER DAYLIGHT SAVING:
* An extra hour of daylight to do your pre-garden prep work in the nice warm weather.
* If there's a late season storm, you'll also have more daylight to shovel or sled!

March 2007 Warmup 2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Concensus has been growing among public and private forecasting agencies as well as through model indications that the period March 16 - 24 looks to be very stormy, potentially snowy and progressively colder for a majority of the East Coast. The "false warmup" that arrived Saturday the 10th and continues into Wednesday, though very pleasant, will set the stage for a 7-10 day series of late season cold blasts interspersed with winter storms. Oddly enough, those storms might even occur OUTSIDE astronomical winter (on or after March 21) and could potentially deliver to the central Mid-Atlantic and coastal Northeast their largest accumulations of the year. The period of Sunday the 18th through Friday the 23rd may be very cold and disruptive, and temperature records may be challenged for areas which just recently observed all time lows for the month of March.

REGIONAL SUMMARY

- Ohio Valley and Great Lakes: Warmth early in the week will lead to this area becoming the battleground zone to be sure for the period 14th to 24th, alternating between rain and mild / snow, windy and colder with the passing of possibly three distinct systems over this time.

- Mid-Atlantic: Later in the week, interior and Appalachian areas will see changeovers to snow in frontal passages, then a turn to colder, while coastal areas end up with rain changing to snow for a brief time, then much colder with a possible storm around the Equinox.

- Northeast: The warmup will be shortened by arrival of the first system in midweek, followed by progressively colder and windier conditions. Snow is possible one day late next week, much colder following next weekend with the potential for a coastal system around the Equinox.

SYNOPSIS OF STORM EVOLUTION AND DYNAMICS
This discussion will contain a considerable number of computer model maps to illustrate the situation to unfold over the next 7 to 10 days. I do want to say that while long range computer model projections are not to be taken 100% literally, they do give us an indication of what pattern changes may be in development. Granted all the maps I have included will change numerous times between now and onset of the event. However I feel confident that the upper level dynamics in place strongly point to a significant late season disruption of the normal climatic pattern of gradual warming we have come to expect for this time of year. The changes being presented starting late next week will be unwelcome for many who are looking to put this winter behind them and move on to Spring.

Premise of the forecast: The false warmup from Sunday to Wednesday sets the stage for a cold, stormy and snowy period starting the 16th and continuing for a 7 t0 10 day period. Factors that will lead to the development of this pattern, in chronological order are: (1) Activation of the Southern Jet Stream; then (2) Buckling of the Polar Jet; followed by (3) Arrival of new Clippers; and finally (4) Moderating first High leads to stronger and colder second High and possible "pattern-ending" snowstorm to usher in the Spring Equinox.

1. Activation of the Southern Jet Stream due to a surface Low and upper level low in Texas that moves slowly across the southeast, allowing warm moist air to surge into the Northeast. The early and mid-week warmup across a large part of the Eastern U.S., will see temperatures climbing into the 60's and 70's to even near 80 across the Mid-Atlantic with overnight lows well above freezing. Consider the Saturday 3/10 late afternoon temperatures across Mexico, the US and Canada. Early evidence of my theorized pattern change is the slug of warmth pushing across the Baja and into Texas. Warm air coming across the subtropical Eastern Pacific means there's going to be more moisture becoming available for the next system that moves into the Gulf towards the end of this coming week.

March 2007 Warmup

2. Buckling of the Polar Jet. Although warmth will have overspread much of the country by Tuesday, it will exit as quickly as it arrived by end of the week. A vigorous low moving through central Canada as shown in the European projection below will provide additional strength to the warm air advection. However it's counter-clockwise flow on the backside will be the first domino to fall and initiate a surge of cold air along the first in a series of clippers to cross the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast. This buckling of the polar jet will lead to the demise of the weak cross-continental "zonal flow" before it has time to help establish a warmer regime.

European Model Projection for Tue 3-13

Concurrently, an upper level and surface low is projected to be moving from Texas to the Southeast during this time period. Upper level lows are notorious for moving slowly, thus allowing the surface low to tap and enhance moisture transport from the Gulf into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys in advance of the progressing cold front. This is indicated by current QPF projections as well as by the GFS surface projection for Wednesday the 14th. Note that with each passing day this week, these links will automatically update with the most current changes as progged by government forecasters at NCEP.

GFS Model Projection for Wed 3-14

3. Arrival of "Clippers" turned "Coastals." This first Great Lakes clipper will usher in a strong cold front through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday and possibly as early as Wednesday. Rain that starts along I-95 on either day may even change over to snow for a brief period before the day ends, and interior sections of Maryland, central/western Pennsylvania may end up with a few inches of wet snow as the front passes overnight Wednesday or Thursday. This trend has already begun in local forecast grids from NWS offices in State College, PA.

GFS Model Projection for Sun 3-18

Behind this front will be the first in a series of cold surges to plunge into the Northeast starting on Friday the 16th, followed by a second and colder Arctic High Sunday into Monday. Temperatures by Sunday the 18th across much of the eastern 1/3 of the nation may be 10-15 degrees below normal, which is to say if you're in Philadelphia, an average high right now is roughly 50*F. Using Accuweather's 6-10 day outlook for example, by next Sunday you may be looking at highs in the upper 30's to low 40's and lows once again in the 20's.

4. Moderation of the first Arctic high by Tuesday the 20th ushers in more moisture from the Gulf, which may lead to a stationary frontal boundary between a warm moist air mass in the Southeast and the incoming Arctic Highs. Several weak areas of low pressure may develop along this front, transporting precipitation from the Gulf into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley and eventually into the Mid-Atlantic..as indicated on the map below. Of course, this is a 10 day outlook and those of you skeptical about this verifying are rightly so. I'm showing this just as one piece of an overall larger picture of the pattern evolution.

GFS Model Projection for Wed 3-21


While I agree with skeptics that precise forecasts more than 10 days out are haphazard at best, it remains to be argued that if unseasonably cold air is firmly in place across the Northeast, it is probable that one or more systems moving from the Gulf may eventually result in interaction between the southern and northern branches of the jet stream. Some indication of this scenario is revealed on the GFS projection for Wed 3/21 and Thu 3/22. Whatever precipitation falls on your home, whether it is rain or snow during this event, re-freezing is possible given the arrival of a second very strong and cold Arctic High following the 21st and 22nd. This last stage of cold in the 16th-24th period may reach it's maximum intensity by the weekend of the 23rd, especially if widespread snowcover has been established prior to the arrival of this final Arctic High. Keep in mind it would take a few days to melt this snowcover, even in the strong March sun, when overnight lows dip enough to refreeze until the pattern moderates after the 24th.

GFS Model Projection for Wed-Thu 3-21,22

In conclusion, consider the following interest groups and impacts which may result from this upcoming weather pattern (extended period of storminess and cold weather)

- If you're a school administrator or department chair, what formal observations planned for the period 16th to 24th? Are these reschedules from earlier weather-related interruptions? Perhaps if you need to fit in an emergency drill or bus evacuation before the month is out, this upcoming week of nice weather might be the opportune time to do it?

- If you're an Athletic Director or Coach, I'm certain you have scrimmages or even early season games scheduled for this time. Realize that this pattern described would most certainly render field use, games and outdoor practices infeasible from Thursday the 15th to Sunday the 24th. What plans or schedule adjustments could be made in the coming week to compensate?

- If you're a landscape or outdoor-related business owner, how might this unwelcome late season weather affect your sales? What will you do to counter a week or more of bad weather when consumers aren't likely to be buying up spring supplies.

- If you work at an Elementary school or daycare center, (both of which I did once long ago), you know the impact to your sanity caused by having to keep the children for indoor recess for an extended period (7-10 days), especially if there's a combination of cold, snow, rain and wind.


- If you're an avid outdoor and gardening person like me, I don't want to see "Breaking News" on CNN: Gardener freezes to death in backyard attempting to keep recently planted bushes alive with body heat. I'm sure Home Depot and Nurseries will be inticing you will all kinds of wonderful things to plant in your yard, but DON'T DO IT THIS WEEK!


When time permits this coming week, I will be adding suporting links within the text, modifying the analysis and including the March 1956 storm analog complete with maps and side-by-side comparison to what's coming. Take advantage of the unique combination this week of more daylight afforded to you by the U.S. Congress, and the brief warm spell provided by Mother Nature. It'll be a nice respite from the recent cold and a promise that help is indeed on the way once we get past this final round of nastiness.

49 comments:

terpguy said...

Good morning, all.

10.0F, 1.5" snow, 0.12" liquid....stayed with the 12.5:1 ratio.



Tomorrow's Friday!

wvmommyof4 said...

I know you all wont believe this but we have no school today!! We will pay for this in June.

Anonymous said...

I say we shoot the groundhog.. anybody with me?

crazedsnowboarder said...

Sweet looking forward to this snowstorm

Mr. Foot said...

needasnowday...

done. already buried behind the DHS Greenhouse (shhh. don't tell grounds crews)

To all snow-addicted powderhounds, I will try to post a summary of the March 1956 setup from a search I did the other night. I cannot take credit for unearthing this, while I have known about the March 58 storm for some time, I learned of the 56 storm(s) from that famed AccuWx long range forecaster Mr. Bastardi. He has not posted anything specific about a possible storm, but has just hinted at the synoptic similarities and possibilities. So I went digging and found some info,compared it to the current 10 day outlooks and I think we have a potential match.

Some models are starting to lean in that direction, although a lot can change over 10 days obviously.

Point is...that Canadian air has to find a home, go back toward the pole or be flushed out. With the volatility of March weather a given, it is not a stretch to envision an Arctic high coming behind a big cold front into the Northeast. I expect something of this nature to get underway starting ..as luck would have it.. on the 16th and 17th.

Busy evening ahead, hopeful update and historical review of March 56 tonight, but not before 9PM!

E.H. Boston said...

I hope this pans out. People here are hating this cold, but I love it. Tonight, lows are going below zero in many places only to rebound some 40 degrees to reach a high of 35.

I can fathom a snowstorm now, but once we get to next Wednesday, which WHDH.com is forecasting a high of 73 for Boston, with a low around 50, I won't be able to comprehend the possibility of a flurry. Hope your research proves otherwise, as this powderhound is starting to lose faith with this winter.

I just say instead of teasing us with possibilities, this winter just comes to an end and we can just get something out of it by making it the least snowy winter in Boston EV-AH! End of story.

6.4"...what does Atlanta, GA average, something like 2.5"? We had ourselves a "snowy" Atlanta winter...looking at it in the glass is half full kind of way.

E.H. Boston said...

Henry Margarsity is calling for March Madness as well with 1-2 more winter storms to affect the eastern third. Maybe you're on to something.

Looking at the GFS, it does get pretty cold again after say the 168 hour period, in one week from now just as storms start to march their way up a stalled front I presume.

10m temps are -10C at times in SNE and the 0C at 10m line makes it all the way down to SC at its peak. Anyway north of DC is fair game end of next week I guess.

We'll see.

E.H. Boston said...

What are you hinting at Mr. Foot?!

Mr. Foot said...

Dr. E.H.

You have to listen to the song to decode the riddle. I'll post the lyrics so you know what I'm getting at with this.

Mr. Foot said...

Based on the lyrics...here's what I'm hinting that I did not have time to post on last night:

Dancing Queen, from ABBA. This was a great little tune from the 70's that I thought was kind of upbeat and made me think how all those powderhouds will be dancing queens if this storm unfolds as I envision.

Here's the chorus:
"You can dance, you can jive, having the time of your life.
See that girl, watch that scene, dig in the Dancing Queen

Friday night and the lights are low
Looking out for the place to go
Where they play the right music, getting in the swing

You come in to look for a King
Anybody could be that guy
Night is young and the music's high
With a bit of rock music, everything is fine
You're in the mood for a dance
And when you get the chance...

You are the Dancing Queen,
young and sweet, only seventeen
Dancing Queen, feel the beat from the tambourine

You can dance, you can jive, having the time of your life
See that girl, watch that scene, dig in the Dancing Queen

You're a teaser, you turn 'em on
Leave them burning and then you're gone. Looking out for another, anyone will do
You're in the mood for a dance
And when you get the chance...

(chorus)

Points from the song:
1. Those of you in rip-off zones (Southern New England, Maryland among others) will be havin' the time of your life in this storm

2. The St. Patty's Day Dancers and Paraders may have to be digging OUT their dancing queens.

3. The young and sweet reference is:
-Children will remember this as a sweet storm for the type of snow it can deliver.

-"Only seventeen" means two things:
A) Storm will arrive on 17th
B) You'll need some 17 year olds to help shovel.

May not be a blockbuster in amounts because I suspect ratios will be very low, even 8:1 or 6:1 but it will be a fun snow to play in.

I foresee a series of pulses forming along a frontal boundary that will make the period 16th to 20th fun, active and for us who like snow, it'll be the time of our lives.

E.H. Boston said...

Ok...

Very poetic of you. March 16th to 20th, marking it down as the end all 5 day period of SNOW SNOW SNOW...won't be happy unless I have 20" of snowcover cement at the end!

Just kidding a foot will do. haha.

ONE MORE THING TO ADD...

BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!

Its Friday and I'm outta here...keep on bringing the good news Foot!

Mr. Foot said...

I know the prospect of a snowstorm will seem hard to fathom by Thursday when all the daffodils are blooming, the grass is greening up nicely, but trust me, the ides of March have a few mischevious tricks to play.. and the false warmup is one of them.

In fact, I have a sense that the lat 10 days of March may be COLDER relative to norms than the first 10 days. By the 22nd we might be heralding spring by grumbling that it was canceled before it ever had a chance to arrive. The long range looks brutal and unpleasant, especially for AD's and sport teams trying to get field time.

E.H. Boston said...

Since your still here...on a serious note...baseball/spring sports start March 19th up here.

Is this in jeopardy, especially where I am away from the coast.

Tryouts are March 19 through ~28. Scrimmages/doubleheaders start April 2.

Spring soccer is starting in early April too. Is this going to be a real disaster!

E.H. Boston said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mr.B said...

The cicadas are coming next year. They are so cool.

Linda said...

Mr. Foot, What exactly happened in 1956, preceding this storm?

terpguy said...

The cicadas are coming next year. They are so cool.


Where do you live?

The 17-year variety aren't due in the Middle Atlantic until 2021.

Russ said...

Mr. Foot,
I have been busy this week with the start of the spring season and banquets to attend and have not really done any weather checking until this morning----WOW! Accu-Weather and Henry. M is saying the same as you. The snow lover in me says---bring it on, the AD in me says---OH NO! However, I've learned over the years that whatever happens was meant to be and we will all get by! So I have to PP about 20 games---at least I will save my bus bill budget!!

Mr. Foot said...

To be fair Russ, I did not borrow my forecast from Henry M, I stumbled across his long range after I had already posted my discussion. (I know you weren't accusing me of that!)

The big problem with the whole situation is computer models don't know how to handle the March 16-23 situation, so there's going to be a huge amount of variability in the forecasts as we have seen all winter. The eventual storms could trend north, leaving just heavy rain for the southern Mid-Atlantic. Or a battleground sets up between the two opposing air masses with a stationary front over the MA...leaving us several days with heavy wet snow, then rain, then snow again. Going to be a vary complicated setup that could go either way I think...an all out surprise St. Pats Day Storm, or heavy rain changing to snow.

I am confident of this: March 16 to 23 will be a wild, active period along the East Coast. I am not putting away any of my winter precipitation management and removal equipment either. Not until Spring Break to be safe.

terpguy said...

I am not putting away any of my winter precipitation management and removal equipment either. Not until Spring Break to be safe.

A wise choice ANY year!

Anonymous said...

This isnt an early April Fools joke right!? Spring sports will be a complete wreck.. this shouldnt impact school openings right!? I dont wanna be in school til JULY!!! I am thinkin I need to change my user name....

Julee said...

I'm supposed to be a wedding guest in Ellicott City on the afternoon of 17th.
Twenty minutes to the south of me.
That should be okay ... right?

Mr. Foot said...

Well ms. former needasnowday..

I was thinking about adding a brief section about schools. The short version would be:

TIME PERIODS WHEN THIS PATTERN MAY MOST LIKELY AFFECT SCHOOL:

Thu-Fri 3/15-16: Possible, but not likely.

Mon-Tue 3/19-20: Possible delays but closings unlikely.

Wed 3/21: Increasingly likely. Early dismissal is possible given orientation and movement of the low on this day, would deliver midmorning to midafternoon snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic.

Thu-Fri 3/22-23: Very likely. Something significant is bound to happen next week no matter what day, pattern progression favors a big event occurs at end rather than beginning. Heavy persistent precip occuring in overnight hours can overcome daytime warming.

Sat-Sun 3/24-25: Moderating air mass, daytime melting,nighttime refreezing. Sports still impacted due to fields unavailable.

Mr. Foot said...

Hi Julee:

Regardless of how this pans out, there will be 2 periods of just plain cold and dry. 17th now looks to be one of those types of days rather than the St Pats Storm I envisioned earlier. So yes, you should be perfectly fine that day.

At least for us Southun rebels. Dem yankees up dere, dats anudder story. Day might have mo white and less green for dere parade tho.

Mr.B said...

Terpguy

Scroll down to the maps and click on Brood XIV 2008

http://www.ummz.lsa.umich.edu/magicicada/Periodical/Index.html

Mr.B said...

http://www.ummz.lsa.umich.edu/magic

icada/Periodical/Index.html

terpguy said...

mr. b

Thanks...forgot about XIV...should not appear to any great degree where I live. That would be near the fall line (or Rt 95, if you will).

My area is the famous Brood X. I've been through 1953, 1970, 1987, and 2004. Every time the numbers drop significantly. In 1953, my father had to use a snow shovel to clear our sidewalk. Compared to that, 2004 was nothing.....University of Maryland printed t-shirts for 1987 (I still have one), but that was a "bust", too!

You are probably aware of this next facts, but I'll add it for anyone else reading this: Periodical cicadas spend their larval stages underground feeding off of tree roots. Chop down the tree...no cicada! With all of the growth in the Mid-Atlantic in the last 50 years, it's a wonder that we have any left. There are also several broods that have a 13-year cycle.

Anyone interested should go to that website. I used it when I taught about the critters in 2004....it's excellent.

TQ said...

March Snow Storm

Happened before.
Happen again.
Snowstorms this winter.
Always...week away.

E.H. Boston said...

Mr. Foot what are you hinting at for us "yankees" to the north.

"At least for us Southun rebels. Dem yankees up dere, dats anudder story. Day might have mo white and less green for dere parade tho."

-Mr. Foot

I hope you are talking about them New York Yankees. Snowstorm + St. Patty's Day (IN BOSTON) = MAJOR DISASTER. Especially that St. Patty's Day is a Saturday this year. There will be boozehounds in the streets from 5 years of age to 105.

I was looking at the 00z GFS and it keeps the cold/somewhat snowy in here until the last days of March? At least in SNE. About the 24th for you southerners.

60-65 on Wednesday though...that'll be quite the change.

I was reading the mid 70's are possible in MA...conservatively...it could be around 80?!

80's and then talking about the snowiest part of winter is quite amazing imo.

Mr. Foot, as always, keep us up to date.

E.H. Boston said...

Also, this time change blows. Waking up the next few weeks to pitch black will be quite annoying.

E.H. Boston said...

20 MINUTES TO 3AM and its 1:35AM.

Mr. Foot said...

Ah yes, two fathers 500 miles apart commiserate together. I have decided that as a parent, Daylight Saving Time is a terrible concoction, especially for children. I used to love it BEFORE I had children.

Dr. E.H. I say we start a petition to get Congress to move it the other way, 2 hours in reverse, like the Russians do.

For the first time this year on Friday morning, I saw hints of daylight around 5:30 AM. It made me feel like summer was here, for just second.

Now this morning...the oldest of the Little Foots is muttering downstairs at 6:50 AM. I come down out of my subconscious stupor to discover the poor child sitting in the PITCH DARK. So I'm thinking... great this will look like MIDNIGHT when I do my morning routine on Monday. How thrilling.

Back to more upbeat topics. The brutal cold and late season snow.

For New Yawkers and New Englanders, the St Pats Parade could be at the very minimum, very very cold and windy with temps in the upper 20's. A lot could change in the week between now and then..including mischief along the coast.

Just think EH, it'll be triply lovely in the morning...super cold, persistent snow and DARK to boot!

kristine said...

Not only do we have to worry about the sports schedules- my son is to have his first outdoor lax practice this Thursday...what about the mess with MSA testing if we are late, early out or off...what a mess for that scheduling!!!

E.H. Boston said...

Most tryouts up here start next Monday the 19th in the heart of your cold and active period.

Fields here already would yield a no go outside as many fields still have some snow on them with ice, yielding a still frozen ground so half the fields are just plain flooded.

Its going to be a mess.

Julee said...

I just heard on the radio last night that one particular Congressman is responsible for this early DST start. He said it would "put smiles on everyone's faces."
Look at me Congressman, does it look like I'm smiling?
If I could remember his name he'd be getting a poison pen letter from ME! Maybe a PETITION!

Mr. Foot ... could it even be possible that we are experiencing a gradual shift in seasons, as in winter will now begin in earnest in January and end in late March/early April, etc.? It seems as though it gets a later start every year.

DerbsATerp said...

Just in time for my spring break, wonderful

John said...

Mr. Foot,

I don't know whether the test of our sanity is because of indoor recess or just because the kids seem to have an internal weather forecasting mechanism and they know that something is on the way. :)

This week will be rough because the weather will be warm and that will get the kids agitated to get out. Besides the fact that MSA's start this week and last until next week. So the teacher tensions is high and the kids will be testing our sanity, so it will be miserable for anyone living with someone that works in an elementary school.

Katie said...

ACK!! No!! My musical starts Wednesday March 21-23!! I like snow more than most, but please...not those three days! Any chance Fairfax Co. VA will be missed all together? My little ones have worked SO hard!

Mr. Foot said...

katie...always a chance everyone gets missed altogether this far out in time (10 days). I put my scenario out there to demonstrate what's possible given the potentially extreme nature of what's coming from Thursday forward. I say if any of the systems from this Wed to next Tue leave behind considerable snowcover across parts of PA, WV, western MD and the Great Lakes, this will have a chilling and reinforcing effect on the final High coming around the Equinox.

If those systems all leave behind only rain, chances are a big storm is less likely. Whether any big system develops in the 21st-23rd we will have a better handle on that if my apocalyptic cold blast/front # 1 arrives on Thu as planned. For now, I wouldn't change any plans and hope the March sun wins this battle for you!

Katie said...

Thank you Mr Foot! Panic Attack officially over ;-)

Gigi Lynn said...

I just have to say to those of you who seem to hate DST, that shifting to it gives me an EXTRA hour of sleep, because now my baby sleeps until 7am instead of 6am -- hallelujah! I would rather just STAY on DST all year, but short of that, I'm so GRATEFUL that we have a month more of it this year!

And Mr. Foot, I hope that you are DEAD WRONG about more snow. Enough already! Come on, SUMMER!

E.H. Boston said...

Henry Margarsity is such a dweeb. Hes kinda ever so slightly backing off his forecast of cold and snow snow snow.

Now hes saying next week will be warmer than this week...so whats that 60's and 70's north...70's and 80's south when 3 days ago, he was calling for Arctic Cold and nonstop snow.

What a dweeb.

Sorry if I am offending anyone, but I have to vent.

Mr. Foot said...

Dr. E.H.

I did see that little blurb today in his blog and have no idea what he's talking about. Can't see any indication on the models of this whatsoever. I can see moderation coming by Thursday of next week, but even AccuWx temps for Philly Mon-Wed are quite cold. Highs maybe in 40's if that, lows in 20's. How are they going to go from 10 deg below normal to 20 deg above normal in 2 days? Not going to happen.

I do agree with you a bit on Mr. M... he's not the most revered of weather forecasters if you know what I mean. Not trying to bash, either, I just don't do a total: "If Henry is saying it, it must be true." approach at all.

I see cold and interior snow by Friday into Saturday, then again Tue and Wed. After that another mild warmup heading into next weekend.

E.H. Boston said...

Dr. Foot...

As always, you bring me back down to earth with your calm, cool and collected attitude.

E.H. Boston said...

Dr. Foot and everyone else on this site...

Wheres the post on the amazing warmth we are going to see tomorrow 70's in New England with massive ice jams and flooded NNE cities...80's in the Mid Atlantic then followed by some snow(storm)?

Mr. Foot said...

Ah ha! GFS trending colder, at least on the 6Z and 12Z runs today. Boston and New York... you might be looking at a WHITE St. Pats Day. More on this later tonight.

E.H. Boston said...

Boston NWS now calling for rain to turn to snow Thursday night around here with it staying all snow Friday now with periods of snow at 80%.

They keep a Snow Likely for Friday night through Saturday and then end with a chance of snow Saturday night.

Will this be a very long duration type of storm?

What I am thinking is that there is a seperate rain maker that moves in tomorrow for Boston and SNE that delivers locally heavy rainfall after highs will range from 70-75 degrees. That lingers as scattered rain showers during the day Thursday with highs in the 50's and dropping by the evening rush.

Thursday night there is still spotty showers and a few of these showers may turn to snow showers and flurries, especially in southern NH and VT Friday morning. Then there will be a lull in the action most of the day Friday before the heavy duty snow falling at temperatures of 30-33 moves in. That will continue all night Friday night into the early afternoon hours of Saturday possibly ending as a period of drizzle for eastern SNE.

The critical rain/snow line will probably be around Plymouth to the SE portion of MA and RI. To the north of there, there will be strong NE winds off the nice and cold 37 degree ocean water and with a high parked perfectly over Quebec, enough cold air will be here from Hartford to Providence to Boston for a good sized snowstorm. Still early, but it looks like this type of snow will be very wet with snow to water ratios of 6:1 SE and 8:1 in northern SNE. Further north into NH, VT, and ME may see ratios of 15:1, but that is where less in the way of snow will fall, the way it looks like at this point.

This all moves out Saturday night and we fall rock bottom into the single digits both below and above zero in NNE to teens in SNE. 20 in the cities.

Sunday will be the day of digging out if you haven't already or just wait for the sun to do its job. Its almost April for goodness sake...the snow will be melted in a few days!

Nonetheless, highs Sunday and Monday will be quite cold with highs in the mid to upper 30's with breezy NW winds making it feel like we are in the heart of winter again. We stay "cool" until the end of next week, and then it looks like we will warm up the whole country again, back to normal and above normal temperatures. 50's and 60's in the NE...60's to around 70 in the MA.

With this storm coming up, it looks like SNE and possibly New York City's suburbs will be getting the most snow out of it.

However, there will be enough cold air for the MA once this storm gets its act together off the coast later Thu and Fri that areas near or just slighty to the WNW of the cities of Baltimore and DC will see a little wet accumulating snow. PHI and eastern PA may pick up their healthiest snowfall of the season as well with the heaviest snowfall totals to the north, where I am!!

Thats my thinking for right now. They don't call me Dr. EH for nothing, I have to try to make this the longest post on the comment page. I think I pretty much did it.

A final note, snowfall accumulations, while very early and it would be very irresponsible to peg exact snowfall totals at this time, look to be in the low to moderate Warning criteria for SNE. Just to give you an idea of what type of snows give Winter Storm Warnings in SNE...6"+ is immenent when the WSW is issued 12 hours prior and 8"+ is immenent when it is forecasted 24 hours or more prior to the onset.

Further south, into NYC, it looks like there will be advisories and warnings being posted, especially just to their N and NW.

Snow Advisories and WXA will likely extend all the way down in MD and VA as well.

Instability flurries and snow showers will encompass all of the OV and Great Lake states this weekend and will likely deliver a couple inches of snow to this region as well. Eastern TN may even see some accumulating snows this weekend as well!

Winter is not over yet. We may be getting our biggest eastern snowfall of the year this weekend and on St. Patrick's Day to boot!

Dr. Foot, now its your turn to entertain these folks. My job is done for tonight.

Time for American Idol...2 hour special.

Mr. Foot said...

Wow Dr. E.H. I am stunned, that was your best ever post and forecast according to the judges with whom I just spoke off stage. They don't have numbers high enough for your score!

I agree very much with your SNE prognostication, along with Eastern PA and NYC. My concern for the Mid Atlantic is the cold air arrives aplenty but shoves the moisture out to sea before it gets a chance to changeover anything.

So we end up with light snowshowers then some freezing over of standing water Friday night.

I also see Balt NWS continuing to trend temps lower Fri-Sat-Sun. They've knocked it off considerably from the 50 they had earlier. Will be a very interesting season-ending storm for sure.

Looks like my second high will stay too far north, so perhaps not as cold heading into the Equinox for MA and Southern I-95 (PHL to DCA).

Am looking over model data and maps, will update and revise forecast accordingly either tonight or 2morrow AM.

E.H. Boston said...

Winter Storm Watches are to be posted at 4PM today for the Friday night storm...

According to the formula, that is about 48+ hours away, so we are in line for 8"+ here in SNE!

Lots to watch and waiting for Dr. Foot's next update.