Wednesday, April 25, 2007

2 comments:
AND NOW FOR THE QUIET PERIOD

If you've shed your powderhound parka for spring-a-ling shorts, I'm with you all the way. This is one of my more favorite times of the year...when each day more daylight is observed, the weather generally trends warmer, and I can enjoy the outdoors with my family and students.

For our frequent and ever-so-loyal readers, you know what's coming...the "Quiet Period" when this website is essentially in pre-summer hibernation as we await tropical cyclone season. If you're new to the site and enjoyed our winter discussions, you can expect just the same rousing interactions and safety tips when a hurricane begins to take aim on the East Coast. The Foot's Forecast quiet period extends from about mid April to early June.

So please understand that from now until then, there are few if any new posts on the sites. While the weather I follow disappears from the map, school and home get very busy in it's place. Also, I generally don't forecast tornadoes, thunderstorms or heat waves... only winter storms, nor'easters and hurricanes. At some point in May I'll post my overview of the hurricane season based on current climate trends, especially the much-anticipated onset of a La Nina and it's impact on the number of landfalling tropical systems in North America.


It certainly was an interesting and notable winter, despite underperformance in the snow department. Thank you for your continued readership and I'll check back in between the upcoming landscaping projects, trips to the park and final exams.


Sincerely Yours,
Forecaster Foot

Monday, April 16, 2007

14 comments:
THE APRIL 2007 ULTRAKAHUNA

Now that was taxing...unofficially a barometric low of 969 millibars, or the rough equivalent of a Category 1 Hurricane / strong Tropical Storm. With high wind warnings posted throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, I wonder if some schools which have not closed or delayed from rain may do so because of wind. Hold a firm grip on that steering wheel.
April 2007 UltraKahuna 969 mb

PREVIOUS POST: Friday evening 4/13. outdoor work/shopping/fun activities done Friday or Saturday. By Sunday morning, the maelstrom will descend on the East Coast and affect fully 1/3 to 1/2 of the Nation's population. Coastal areas will receive a significant lashing of wind, waves and rain while interior sections from Pennsylvania and western Maryland northeastward to Maine may receive their largest snowfall of the season (spring or winter, it's free pick this time.)

April 2007 UltraKahuna Summary

Unfortunately I don't have time to delve into a long-winded analysis of the storm, and you don't have time to read it all anyway, so that's a win-win for both of us. I can say there will be a "sweet spot (or line)" somewhere in Northeast or East Central PA or even western Maryland that is just on the cold sector of this storm, and will receive a whomping amount of heavy wet snow. Just a few miles east or south.. all rain. And plenty of it... consider the latest QPF map for the period Friday to Wednesday:

April 2007 UK - QPF

And finally, Accuweather's Henry Margusity has revised his storm potential map. Again, some may criticize the effectiveness of a "6 to 25 inch" forecast, but the point of this is to give you a general sense of how the storm will affect different regions of the country, not to analyze the accuracy of forecast for an event which has not yet occurred.

April 2007 UltraKahuna revised map

For comparison, below was the first map issued yesterday. Following is copy of the "extended range" discussion from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, or HPC. Overall, I think you get the gist of this...a potentially crippling storm will arrive on the East Coast Sunday, and stay until Tuesday or beyond.


April 2007 UltraKahuna

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER - CAMP SPRINGS MD - 953 AM THU APR 12 2007 VALID 12Z MON APR 16 2007 - 12Z THU APR 19 2007

...INTENSE STORM FOR EAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK...

(MODEL DISCUSSION CUT FOR NOW... WILL POST TOMORROW WITH EDITS)

....EAST...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD E AND NEWD SUNDAY FROM THE OH VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID AND S ATLC REGIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NC COAST. DEEPENING LOW SUNDAY WILL BRING GALE FORCE SRLY WINDS ALONG THE S ATLC COAST SUNDAY WITH INCREASING NE GALE FORCEWINDS INTO THE MID ATLC. THE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING OFF MID ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND MOVE INTO THE NY BIGHT BRINGING GALE TO STORMFORCE E/NE WINDS INTO NEW ENG/LONG ISLAND WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON AND TUES. ABOVE NORMAL SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW MOONPHASE / HIGH WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INLAND....PCPN TYPE WILL BECOME MORE COMPLICATED AS CONDITIONS SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OFNEW ENG/NY/PA AND POSSIBLY SWD DOWN THE CENTRAL APPLCHNS. HEAVY SNOW THREAT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND A POTENTIAL HISTORIC EVENT.

SOUTHWARD....THE DEEP STORM WILL BRING STRONG OFFSHORE W-NW WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON AND CONTG TUESDAY AND KEEPING UP NW FLOW POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY IN THE MID ATLC REGION. PROLONGED OFF SHORE FLOW LIABLE TO BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TIDES CHES BAY/DEL BAY WITHA THREAT OF SOME SOUNDSIDE TIDAL FLOODING NC OUTER BANKS. THIS EVENT HAS SIMILARITY TO EARLY APRIL 1975 BLOWOUT EVENT. THIS AFFECTING SHIPPING IN DEL/CHES BAY HARBORS. A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. POTENTIALLY HISTORIC EVENT.

PROJECTED PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY 4/13 TO WEDNESDAY 4/18:

April 2007 UK QPF Maps

IF YOU ARE READING THIS BY EMAIL...UPDATES WILL BE POSTED TWICE DAILY STARTING FRIDAY TO SUNDAY. Carefully consider your weekend travel plans if you are going to be along the coast or in the interior and en route back home this coming Sunday.

Friday, April 6, 2007

34 comments:
ANOTHER LUCKY 7

4-7-07 Snow

For those of you in the southern I-95 corridor from Philly to DC, this has turned out to be the third time in a row you saw snow exactly on the 7th of the month. Think back...February 7, then March 7, now April 7. Interestingly enough, in all three cases most Baltimore Metro schools were closed all three times. As Linda from Bucks County, PA said, "It's the winter that didn't want to start and now doesn't want to end." Anyone for a"White" Arbor Day? (Friday, April 27)

000_1667

The first of several beautiful spring "Onion snow" pictures submitted by Mr. TQ, a frequent contributor to our discussion community, who operates a high quality snowfall forecast contest site. If you're not familiar with onion snow, it's origins are from Pennsylvania, and likely with farmers, for the definition is "A light snow in late spring, after onions have been planted." according to answers.com. Funny that I would mention a White Arbor Day, and then I receive a nice picture of a deciduous tree with leaves covered in snow!
Easter Saturday Snow
Previous post from yesterday afternoon/evening

Easter Weekend Snowstorm

Accuweather's current call for the early Easter snow event along the Mid-Atlantic. Looks like some bunny ears are going to be frosty AND white...but not because the fur is. Question is... will model trends of the past 24 hours continue, resulting in the DC-Baltimore areas receiving a blanket of white on your newly planted annuals and perennials that I told you several weeks ago not to plant. Given the ever-s0-slight backing off of the North Atlantic Oscillation to near neutral, I'd say there's an outside chance the snow trends a tad bit more north and west. Since this event is occuring in the overnight hours, and the ground has chilled considerably since Wednesday, you might awaken on Saturday to a springlike winter wonderland of snow on the cherry and pear tree blossoms! If that happens here, I'll be sure to post a picture of it. If you catch a good image of spring snow at your house, please consider sending me a copy for posting here: rdfoot@comcast.net. Also, a reminder to our frequent observers, if you begin to experience greater-than-expected frozen precipitation... post your observations in the comments. Thanks everyone and Happy Easter!