Saturday, January 19, 2008

Twice in the past 7 years, I've heard the famous words:
"No need for concern, the storm is going to stay mostly south of DC."

(1) January 25, 2000. Initial forecast for Baltimore: 1.5" Actual: 17"
(2) February 16, 2003: Initial forecast for Baltimore: Light rain/snow mixed. Actual: 24"

The map below was a projection by the GFS on conditional snowfall for Saturday evening. Of course no one bought this solution, because it was (and still is) believed the approaching cold front in the mid-west would kick the Southeast storm out to sea before affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Now scroll down to see the current radar and compare. Call me a wishcaster, but it seems that the western edge of precipitation is a tad bit west of DC.
Saturday Surprise 1

Saturday Surprise 2


Foot's Forecast said...

Keep in mind with such low dew points currently, nearly all of that "snow" is evaporating before hitting the ground. Or is it?

Any of our WV or VA readers, please comment on what you're seeing at home.

Dare I say that if this trend continues, I can see NWS hoisting a Special Weather Statement, or even a surprise Winter Weather Advisory.

Unknown said...

Mr.Foot does this mean snow for us? Or south of us?

Foot's Forecast said...

Well Grant.. if that radar above it stays whitish blue for too long, that stuff will make it's way down here, and then we're in for a surprise! Maybe an inch or two if the cold front stalls.

Julee said...

YIKES! That's a lovely surprise!
Accuweather was calling for an inch an hour in the south ... no possibility of that for us ... IS there?

Any more thoughts on the "Thursday Thing?"

wvm said...

so far we have not had anything here in WV. It did look like snow all day but we never even had flurries.