Tuesday, January 22, 2008

WILL THE TREND BE YOUR FRIEND?

Tuesday 1/22 thoughts on the clipper: Think over the trend of the past 2 storms that approached us from the west/south...both ended up as "overperformers" due to more dynamic development once in the Mid-Atlantic. The Dec 5 and Jan 17 events produced more snowfall than was anticipated by NWS and Accuweather. I believe today's event will continue that trend, for 2 reasons:

1) While dewpoints are again low presently, southwest winds ahead of the storm will raise temperatures a few degrees faster than normal, and moistent the atmosphere quickly ahead of arrival. This will enable snow to once again start suddenly as it did in the Jan 17 storm.
2) This system is slower moving, and while moisture content is low, the surface and boundary layer temperarures will below freezing until late in the day, allowing whatever falls to freeze on contact. This will create instant and widespread slippery conditions.

WHAT ABOUT SCHOOL? Easy call there...another round of parental pandemonium.
MOST LIKELY: 1 HOUR EARLY DISMISSAL IF the precip arrives sometime after 10 am in the Baltimore/DC Metro areas, and is generally light but persistent for several hours. A changeover at or after 3 PM won't help high and middle schools which let out in the 2:15 to 2:45 period.
LESS LIKELY: 2 or 3 hour dismissal. The mess that resulted from the 2 hour call recently I don't think will be reattempted again for sometime. There is not enough heavy precip potential to warrant a big call for that. THEN AGAIN... do you think there's a chance that backlash from last week might have some districts running scared and they'll over-react, going with a 3 hour when a 1 hour would be sufficient? Regardless of the call, I can forecast widespread parental pandemonium if the trend turns out to be our friend and this event becomes another over-performer.

3 comments:

snow lover said...

I looked at accuweather and one of their senior meteroligists said that the snow ratios will be extremely high because of the cold temps so this would create higher totals. Also it looks as if the storm may develop when it hits the coast so this would bring more snow. I think that it will start earlier then expected. Maybe we will be off!!!!!!!!!!!!

playastyle said...

heyy how is thursday afternoon lookin?

lsckicks8 said...

How is this weeking lookin?