Tuesday, February 26, 2008

A TRIP TO FANTASYLAND..FOR THOSE GOING SKIING
(IT WILL BE POURING SNOW AT MY 7 SPRINGS SKI TRIP THIS WEEKEND, AND EVEN BETTER...THE FOOT GIRLS WILL BE THERE TO ENJOY IT ALL WITH ME. )
Fantasyland


(No, not that one. I'm talking about the GFS Fantasyland...this one:


GFS FantasyLand


TUE 2-26 10:30 PM. I know it's hard for you ravenous powderhounds not to get excited when you see maps like this. It's similar to how the administration gets teachers to attend faculty meetings on time, they just announce that chocolate is being served to the first 25 people who show up. You've never seen teachers move so fast after a long school day. If they consider chocolate a food group, then people like you reading this site probably consider impossibly fun computer model scenarios sweeter than pure sugar itself. Just a minute, I need to grab my evening dose.


Ok, back now. ::head twitching:: I call this the GFS FantasyLand, because it is just one model run of the US based Global Forecast System from Monday 2/25 showing some crazy scenarios for next week's storms. One idea going forward from here is that it appears increasingly likely something very significant will pound the East Coast the middle of next week. While climate indicators don't seem that promising: The NAO is strongly positive, the PNA fading to near-neutral. This is opposite of the setup we prefer: a negative NAO (trough in the East), a positive PNA (ridge in the West). Regardless, the GFS, European, Canadian, et all are all showing a major major event swinging east by next Tuesday morning that is going to be hard to avoid. Although a lot can and will change over the next 7 days leading up to arrival of this event, it is interesting to note a number of models have continued to show something brewing for the 3/4-5 period now for several days in a row, so we will keep watching.


Yes, I know, the same thing happened in March 2001... for days before, the models projected a massive Day After Tomorrow type blizzard which was going to bury the 95 corridor under 2-3 feet of snow. The hype was galactic in nature, and schools were closed all the way to the Moon. Everything was shut down from Boston to DC, even BEFORE the storm struck. It was my first year of live classroom teaching in science, and I was in Lancaster County, PA at the time. I remember just before going to bed that night, a TV forecaster from Philadelphia showed the entire viewing area under a deep blue shading with 24" - 36" plastered over it. The next morning, I awoke to 2 inches. The storm had shifted east overnight, blasting northern and central New Jersey as well as parts of New England with just some of the crippling snow that had been expected in the cities. It was and still is in the minds of many weatherfolk, the biggest bust in the history of Mid-Atlantic weather forecasting.

49 comments:

Kyle said...

This is just brutal... So this is what a severe lack of snow will do to a person: make them salivate over 7-10 GFS models, heh heh. Something to consider though: highest snow pack in N. America/Russia/Mongolia since 1966 and the coldest year on record globally...doesn't all that have to shift downward (south) sometime? The NAO is moving toward negative and the PNA could hold out positive just long enough for this storm. There's also record heat in Florida, so the global atmosphere is just ripe to produce a crazy event in my mind. T - 7 and counting.... Thanks for the fix Mr. Foot, I was starting to sweat :-D

Grant said...

I hope and pray we get atleast one get snow storm before our winter is over :)

photofreak65 said...

I'm with Grant......I want just one good snow fall before we call winter officially over. I'll keep checking back and hope you're showing something good.

Tom said...

I remember the "Storm of the Century". It was all that jerk John Bolaris' fault. He was run out of town on a rail. Had to do the weekend weather in NYC for a few years, and he's back in Philly now--but on FOX. He still predicts weather non-events, though more on the level of "bring an umbrella" when you don't really need one than "death by snow!"

Kyle said...

The models seem pretty consistent on a cut off low pressure barreling up the coast, but I'm really concerned about the warm air. Even the NWS is taking note now:

...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BECOME LOCATED ACROSS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
ALONG THE CAROLINA OR MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

Of course they say "winter" storm and not "snow" storm, so that's my concern. I don't want 2" of rain... So much needs to happen from here until then, including that strong SE Canadian high pressure... Canada needs to share the wealth!! :-)

Mr. Foot said...

Euro and GFS starting to advertise Kyle's long needed snow event.

More details after little girl bedtime

Kyle said...

:-D

snow lover said...

mr foot what is the probability of a big snowstorm. 50, 60, 70 percent or less. I am just getting excited..

terpguy said...

Mr. F-

While it looks like plenty of liquid for next week, the several maps I looked at have the 540 line as far North as Lake Erie.

Now, I know that the 540 isn't set in stone, but I hope you have some squiggly lines that are different than my squiggly lines.... :-)

Kyle said...

Alright, alright...I'll give you the night off :-) I think I've read everything out there for the time being on this *potential* storm (albeit, I probably didn't understand a good deal of it). I know what I'm dreaming about tonight (-and it isn't rain...or was that obvious?)

E.H. Boston said...

Terpguy, you are correct...the GFS and other models are now coming into agreement of a BIG STORM for early next week, but just the storm that Kyle didn't want to see...its going WEST of the Apps and that will flood the east coast with warm air and we will be measuring inches and inches (of rain) with the current setup and seeing how high the thermometer will go. (not snow)

So, no end all storms next week for you guys or me for that matter...highs sometime next week..Mon/Tue will push 60 here in BOS and you guys will be balmy as well.

Indications are that we cool thereafter with more shots, but now entering March (Saturday)...snow chances for the MA get more rare and PHI and esp NYC NORTH are still in winter's grip.

Not saying its not going to snow...last April parts of the Del Marva got 4-6", just the law of averages and climo is catching up with us and fast.

By MAR 15, BOS starts to wrap up its snow season...sun angle too high.

Kyle said...

e.h...I must begrudgingly agree with you...total bummer once again. Even though the Euro and GFS switched places, it's looking more and more like a massive rain event for all of us. Of course, there's a "chance" for another storm on the 8th, but I've been hearing "a chance for a big one" all darn winter and it's really just frustrating to no end. However, I'd much rather the models indicate this (rain event) now instead of a massive 2'-3' snowy blizzard and then have it not verify (March 2001). I don't know if I could ever recover from a meteorologist telling me to expect a blizzard the NIGHT before and then wake up to nothing... Maybe I should move to Buffalo where I don't have to worry about synoptic weather, just good ol' lake effect. Thanks e.h. for the update.

Mary said...

This is all really bumming me out!

E.H. Boston said...

Mary...we are only a few weeks away from the flowers and smells of spring...70F most every day is better than waiting for that one big one with 42F and gray skies in winter...the big one that is always just out of reach.

Mary said...

Thanks e.h. LOL!!! I know, I know, but I still can't help wishing for the big one. Even though if a big one came, I would be shoveling a 4 ft high and 6 ft deep wall of snow at the bottom of my driveway. That's what always happens when we get lots of snow and wind - the plow doesn't help either with salt, the melting and refreezing causes it to be a block of ice. But, I put up with it for the pleasure of getting the snow.

I guess I am getting sick of wearing the same clothes....maybe spring should come.

Kyle said...

I think I've chased Mr. Foot away from his own site :-0 Okay, Okay...I'll stop bickering about our lack of snow, I promise :-D Hope everything's alright. Maybe he's as depressed as me about the storm? (ooops, i already broke my "no bickering about snow" rule... haha)

weathertracker said...

Kyle/Mary,


We will have a few flakes flying
tomorrow afternoon or evenimg.
If the storm comes 100 mil farther
south we could get a inch or two.
Quick warm-up Monday then a major
storm. I know it looks like rain
but, a few days left. Euro in the
showing closer to the coast. I still believe we will have a Major
Snow storm. Don"t lose you hope yet. By the way !!! The 18z GFS is
showing a 10-15 inch snow storm on
3/12 and 3/13 here. We can always
dream :)

Kyle said...

Thanks weathertracker, I appreciate it. It really is still a ways away, and things could definitely change. At least all the models agree that there is a big storm, just a matter of placement and having enough cold air. This has been a winter of extremes for much of the N. hemisphere so much could transpire still. Here's hoping :-)

E.H. Boston said...

Mary, I've been trying to recreate Jan. 22, 2005 since then and haven't gotten it...that was the first month I started frequenting this site. These major storms are few and far between. We will get another big one. Just when, nobody knows.

Kyle...sometimes Mr. Foot is busy with 'life.' My first year on this board, I was just like you having to check this site every hour to see for updates...your condition will improve lol...

BTW...sometimes this site can go into a hiatus for weeks at a time without any update...he does have kids and he's a teacher...

Everything is status quo ATTM. No big storm in the offing, yet.

Kyle said...

Yeah, I'm just kidding e.h., i figured he's just busy doing normal people stuff. I don't have kids yet, but I can imagine how busy I will be when that happens. He's a great guy for putting up with constant inquires and for putting this great site together. And you're right, a mega storm will hit us sometime, i'm just impatient, heh heh.

Mr. B said...

More like reality check land.

wvm said...

what is going on? All of a sudden we have a hazordous outlook of 2 to 4 inches of snow tonight. What happend to a passing flury. Not that I am complaining I just dont want to get my hopes up for a little snow.

Mary said...

wvm, where are you from? Looks like we could get maybe an inch around here - at least that's what accu weather is saying.

wvm said...

Inwood, it is in the eastern panhandle of WV. They have already changed the outlook. It now says little to no accumulation. It is amazing how quickly things change.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Foot, what should we expect for the opening day of Spring Sports!?

snow lover said...

on henry margueitys blog he said that their is a potential big daddy snowstorm at the end of next week. Any on have any thoughts on this.

Kyle said...

It appears that the March 5th storm will be a rain (strong/severe/flooding?) event, however it will bring in a lot of cold air which will help set up the next system. This next system will be the March 8th event, whereby the GFS is projecting a strong coastal low to surge up the eastern seaboard. There's actually decent model ensemble agreement with this March 8th system, so that's why Henry is excited. We'll see... I suppose that I have enough faith left :-)

Anonymous said...

No...noooo..nooo.. >whining< soring sports have begun.. and and.. the fields will be a mess! No big flooding RAIN.. no!! >stomping foot< Foot? FOOT!!!! HELP!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Spring sports.. that is SPRING!!!

Kyle said...

Hope all is well Mr. Foot. Busy week ahead.

ready for summer said...

I was checking out the BCPS hour tracker. If we have used 3.3 of our emergency closing days shouldn't we be gaining time at the end of the year? I think 6/17 would put us beyond 191 teacher days. Have I got it all wrong?

John said...

Well we have only used 2 snow days. The others were delayed openings or early closings which actually count as a duty day. Right now they have to give us back the five days or we will be going over the 191 duty days. The big issue comes down to hours for the HS. They are required to have 1080 hours of instructional time. What might happen is that some of the 3 hour ED at the end of the year would become whole days for HS if the hours are short.

Don't worry TABCO won't let them work us more than the 191 duty days.

Mr. Foot said...

Sorry all, been sick and immersed in trying to get our postponed ski trip launched. Won't be able to post much this week, but thanks for the nice comments and well wishes.

Kyle said...

Sorry to hear that Mr. Foot, I hope you have a speedy recovery! Looks like you may be skiing in your own backyard if this storm works out (one can hope right?).

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

The pattern is agaisnt a snow storm this week. But in this winter of rain and sleet, it's interesting to watch the models give it then take it away for one last time. Better luck next season! If we get a large snow storm for early this weekend I'll east my shoe.

Scott said...

Andy,

How do you like your shoe cooked?

Mr. Foot said...

Under the weather today, but can give you this blurb:

The storm this weekend looks to be the final Kahuna of the year, for areas west of the I-95 corridor. I don't expect much for the cities, but out in central/western PA and WV, will be a dumptruck load of snow. I'll bet 10+ inches fall, of course, while I'm out there on our rescheduled ski trip.

Accuweather indicating a significant storm for the weekend. Hope you all follow it closely, as I'll be immersed in getting better and trip preparations.

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

Scott:

I haven't had the need to use my snow shovel or blower yet this year. Ice melt only. I see no need to break any of these tools out of storage now in March in light of this pattern.

At best this storm will bring us rain and maybe a little slush at the end. But as for the need for a snowblower or shovel there won't be any! Until it snows more than 2-3 inches instead of rain soaked, sleet beaten slush, which has characterized our wither in south central pa; NO SHOE FOR ME!

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

In light of some of the trends I may invest in power equipt., so I can build my own Ark. WINTER IS OVER (as far as accumulating snow goes) SOUTH OF I-80 AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS!

Mr. Foot said...

Right you are Andy. I think we've seen the last of snow this year east of the mountains. Course, I said that around this time in 07, and we had another small storm around the Equinox, followed by snow on Easter Saturday.

Still looks like rain changing to a heavy wet snow west of I-81... and windswept thunderous rain for the corridor.

Once we get past this storm and I recover from the weekend, I'll be preparing my early ideas for the...
drum roll please... hurricane season.

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

It's good to see some of the old folks back online. It's been one of those winters where there really has not been much to talk about. Hopefully, next season will be better.

I am in the process of relocating within southern York county, about 10 miles north/ north east of where I am to a very rural setting. Elevation 920 feet per topzone. Look forward to setting up the weather station and providing reports should interesting weather or winter ever pay a visit to this area in the future.

E.H. Boston said...

I hope you guys haven't put away your shovels yet....

I'm here to tell you guys that midweek (Tuesday into Wednesday) there is a healthy chance of snow coming through DC-BWI and even PHI. This is in association with a clipper type system that could deposit some accumulating snow to the aforementioned cites.

I'm here just to revive this site a little bit as I know you are all in limbo between the miserable muck of March and preparation for the summer season.

Winter has another gasp left in it and will bring SNOW midweek.

Right now if I had to pinpoint accumulations, I would go 1-3" regionwide with a stripe of 2-4" possible from BWI-SNJ. If we can get some ocean enhancement off the Atlantic then some spots in the Del Marva will pick up 4-6" of snowfall.

I miss this one to the south, but you guys deserve it.

Scott said...

Andy,

Looks like your shoe is safe this time! :)

Julee said...

Hey Fellow Disappointed PowderHounds Not Enjoying HUGE Snow Drifts With Mr. Foot!

E.H. is on to something. Just saw that Madman Margusity is talking about another coastal storm towards the end of next week. Acccuweather is discussing a strongly negative NAO.
Margusity says that the places that DIDN'T get snow this time WILL get snow next time.

I'm 400% sure that WE qualify as a place that didn't get snow ... ANYtime!

E.H. Boston said...

Julee, I'm not talking about the coastal for next weekend...I'm talking about the clipper that is a DC-BWI SPECIAL that will only give you guys snow TUE/WED. If I had to peg, I'd still go 1-3" with up to 4" in spots. Enjoy!

Kyle said...

We had some intense winds here from this last storm. A huge 25-30ft. tree was knocked over quite close to us, blocking the road completely for several hours before emergency crews removed it. Does the GFS take away some of the clipper moisture for us or am I just reading that wrong? At any rate, this winter isn't done yet.

Julee said...

We'll TAKE 1-4 inches!!!!!!!!
Doesn't even matter if we get out of school ... I just like to *look* at it.
Thanks EH!!

Now Margusity is retrenching and saying it could be rain for the coastal. That's okay, I need to be at the Baltimore Spelling Bee for one of our students this weekend. Snow would make things messy.

E.H. Boston said...

If I had to say it now...I'd go T-1" for the clipper in the MA TUE. Maybe someone in western VA can squeak out 2".

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

Nothing but a sprinkle in southern, pa. We are now in the middle of March, so I am looking forward to real warmth. This late in the season in this part of the world rarely sees real snow.

At best rain wet snow mix cold typer weather or slush if it coems at night. It takes a very powerful storm most of which starts at night to add up to anything. That does not look likely during the nex week.

HAPPY SPRING! THIS WINTER IS CLOSED.