Sunday, February 17, 2008

SOMETHING'S BREWING OUT THERE...
(AND IT'S NOT JUST THE MORNING COFFEE)
SCROLL DOWN TO "STORM OVERVIEW" FOR BASIC SUMMARY

Something's Brewing...

SUN 2/17 AM: This is a Foot's Forecast Alert. Although computer models continue to conflict and alternate in their projections, there will be a major winter weather event of some kind in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic from Thursday into Saturday. This post will be revised over the next several days, with an continually updated overview for those who just want the basics. Below that will be the on-going, full-blown more-than-you-could-ever-want-to-know analysis. The most important headline going forward is that this WILL BE A LONG DURATION MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT POSSIBLY LASTING 2 DAYS OR MORE, so let's just hope it does not end up as an ice storm. Anyone remember February 1994? Figured not, you probably blocked it out.

STORM OVERVIEW: This outline will be revised as information and indicators change, but it represents my present thinking for the Mid-Atlantic states for central VA - Maryland - central PA to New Jersey.

WHEN? Arriving in MD and VA Thursday between 3PM and 9PM. Starts light and intermittent, increases in intensity but will alternate between light and heavy due to waves of low pressure moving along a frontal boundary.

HOW LONG? Majority of precipitation will exit the region by Friday night.

WORST PART? Overnight Thursday until Friday afternoon.

HOW MUCH? If precip remains all snow AND if it trends more north than models currently indicate...then 4 or more inches for central/northern Maryland, central/northern Virginia (4 or more in a 12 hours is NWS Criteria for Heavy Snow) If freezing elements mix in, snow amounts will be cut down closer to 2" and sleet/freezing rain could account for at least 1/2"

SCHOOL? Given the current timing ideas, I would project many schools in the affected areas of Maryland and Virginia closed Friday. An earlier arrival time could interfere with Thursday.

The CNBC Fast Money Summary: Both the GFS and European models as well as others, are showing various, albeit conflicting, scenarios of an Arctic High sliding into the Great Lakes/southeast Canada region by next Thursday night. This would bring noticeably cold upper level temperatures to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. the same time a Low developing in the Southern Plains and Tennessee Valley looks to incorporate considerable Gulf and Atlantic moisture ahead of the storm as it moves toward the Eastern seaboard. The main point is this storm could go either way...an all out snowstorm given the right timing, or a more complicated snow to ice to rain storm like we saw last Feb and last week. You can be sure of this, something big (and wicked) this way comes for next weekend, and those with travel or social plans need to monitor the forecast closely. By Wednesday, weather agencies should have a better handle on the system and I expect Special Weather Statements to start rolling by then if not by Tuesday.


Note: Will be adding a revised surface map to show differences in model projections from this past Friday to today, so we have something from which to base our discussions.

ANALYZING STORM INDICATORS


1. THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION: Currently slightly negative, but trending positive over the next few days. While not the best arrangement, if it turns back toward neutral, that might indicate the Arctic High would be at least prevented from sliding east too quickly next Thursday-Friday. Remember the ideal position for an East Coast snow event would be a high parked in southeast Canada with cold air funneling down east side of the Appalachians. SUN PM ideas: Before we go further, I have been analyzing the NAO situation more closely and something just seems out of place. Review my graphic and let me know what you think, does anyone have an explanation for the issues I present here:

NAO Analysis 2-17-08


NAO Indications prior to February 2003 Blizzard: Although the NAO was slightly NEGATIVE and trending toward neutral, this slight drift occured in the 2 day period just before and THEN during the storm. My theory is that was a major factor which enabled the primary Low and it’s moisture to “over-run” the High toward the Mid-Atlantic. A strong negative trend in the NAO means Arctic air will overwhelm the region and keep storms south or out to sea. PLEASE NOTE I AM NOT SAYING THIS STORM WILL RESEMBLE FEB 03, I am saying the early indicators are somewhat similar to what was seen prior to that storm and I am showing you those for discussion purposes.

Also of note is that the NAO during Winter 2002-03 spent most of the time neutral to negative, but not significantly so. In recent years, very strongly negative NAOs over several weeks correlated to extensive cold periods, and strongly positive NAOs led to unseasonal warmth. You can see from the chart below that this winter we have not even observed a standard deviation beyond 2, and winter for the Mid-Atlantic has been relatively quiet in comparison to years like 02-03 or 05-06.

NAO Winter 07-08

2. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES: THE CANARY IN THE COALMINE?

Feb SST Anamolies

3. UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS: COLDER DAYS ARE COMING UP

Below is the 850 millibar GFS Ensemble map for the Northern Hemisphere, produced 2/16 for 2/21. It clearly shows a 4 to 10 C degree negative departure at the boundary layer (5,000 foot level) over the entire Mid-Atlantic and Northeast starting Thursday, indicating that a cold and expansive High will be parked somewhere nearby. What significant is the "ensemble" is not one single computer model but a compilation of all the different algorithmic scenarios that computer has projected, and merged into a single "averaged" solution. If the average solution is noticeably below normal temperatures right at the onset of our storm, then a lot of forecasts for rain could bust big. Just think...if at 5,000 feet above Baltimore next Wednesday night the temp is already 6 to 8 degrees C below normal, if that ends up being around -15 F at those levels, it would favor the development of dentritic snow crystals. Those are the fastest to form with the highest fluff factor, and lead to high accumulation rates as was observed in February 2003. Too soon to say if that would happen, but the temperatures at least look good so far.

850 mb temps Thu 2-21

THE BLIZZARD OF 2003: 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY. For a trip down memory lane, review this article in Wikipedia about the Great North American Blizzard of February 2003, which started 5 years ago, right about now. If you have extra time, take a look at this slideshow I have on an old webshots site from the storm, it makes me feel like I'm still there. Enjoy the memories, I wonder when we'll get to make some new ones like this.


49 comments:

Kyle said...

As soon as I read your post, I told my wife and right away she said to me, "Kyle, don't get your hopes up!" Too late though, haha :) I'll be tracking this one right along with you. The North Atlantic Oscillation and the PNA index are settling to where they need to be it appears as well. Right now, it seems like the energy will be there, it's just a matter of timing? We shall see. Thanks for the post!

snow lover said...

hey I just read the post and in 2003 I was only 9 so I washy as interested in the weather so I don't remember the forecasts but only the impact ( 3 feet of snow) could someone inform me on the computer models and forecasts for that day? Thnx

Julee said...

Don't Be Cruel ...

Ohhhhhhhhh Mr. Foot, you've raised my Powderhound Hackles!

Hope this one doesn't behave like the previous 500 snowstorms this winter and head straight for us, then make a northerly (or southerly) swerve at the last minute.
I'm putting all of my Kahuna eggs into one BIG negative NAO basket.

photofreak65 said...

I'm keeping my fingers crossed! I want just one Big One before Srping settles in.

Here's to Hoping!

Mr. Foot said...

Getting a bit scary, although 5-6 days out so a lot can and will change. I've read some forecasters who are warning that it could:

1. Be a major ice storm
OR
2. If the high ends up in the wrong spot, a snow to ice to rainstorm, which might be just as worse given flooding potential.

You're right Kyle, hard not to get hopes up. The way I get around that is to promise myself I won't stay up late analyzing it. Then if it happens, I won't be already exhausted going into the storm! If it doesn't happen, I'm rested anyway.

I will be out good part of the day until late this afternoon, so will answer your questions then.

Mr. Foot said...

I'll be adding as time permits snippets gathered from here and there. The HPC is indicating the possibility of a major event, but is unsure how much credence to place in the new Euro projection of the High being eroded by a strong southerly flow.. that would kill off chances for snow. However, the GFS continues to show a snowy/icy solution over the past 4 runs and that's an interesting development. If the Euro comes back to it's earlier ideas, then you'll see more confidence going forward from NWS offices. Still much too early for them to say anything about it given a 6 day horizon.

Russ L said...

Mr. Foot & all snow lovers,
just saw this on NOAA
LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STORM MAY IMPACT THE
MID ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IF THIS STORM
DEVELOPS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED

Russ L said...

and this as well
STAYS PRETTY ACTIVE ALL WEEK WITH 00Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A
LARGE STORM EVOLVING OVR THE SRN PLAINS THU. THIS SYSTEM FCST TO
TRACK NE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LKS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A LONG DURATION HEAVY WINTER PRECIP EVENT FOR OUR AREA
AS COLD HIGH IS SLOWLY TO RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

Mr. Foot said...

Thanks Russ for that snippet.

One thing that strikes me is how we've all underestimated the staying power of cold air over the Mid-Atlantic once it's in place. This led to several winter wx busts, and resulting delays, early dismissals, etc. I think this storm is going to be ultimately determined by the NAO outcome. We'll really have to closely watch that. If it is drifting neutral by Wed, that's a sign the High is going to depart slower and allow the moist air to overrun-- increasing ice potential. It also means a lake cutter would not happen, as Lows don't attack Highs sitting over the lakes. They either go around to the left/north as the high departs.. or if the high goes stationary in SE Canada, the low has no other option than to cut under, hence the precip overruns to the north, creating the ice/snow scenario. The Feb 03 Blizzard was a unique case where we did not have a super strong Low like in Mar 93 or Jan 96, but rather a widespread weak area of LP that all just ran into a big Arctic High. Remember day of the storm it was 18 F and snowing. 3 days before the forecast was for highs in the 30's and all the precip staying south of DC.

I saved the Special Weather Statement issued by Balt/DC NWS on Thu 2/13/03. Last sentence: "As for snow late in the weekend, at this point it looks to be light and intermittent."

That was 72 hours out folks. We knew from models there was 2-3 inches of liquid coming. And we all underestimated strength and duration of the high.

Things that make you go hmmm...

Russ L said...

Let me see if I get this right--It seems as of now, the cold air is going to move into the area slowly as the week goes on and stays in place, instead of a huge push of cold air all at once from a strong cold front moving through. Once this cold air gets here it is going to be difficult to move it out? The thing I do not understand is in the NOAA remarks, it says that this Low pressure is going to track to the eastern Gt. Lakes. if this is the case won't we be on the more warm air side? How cold are we talking at the onset?

Mr. B said...

Another heart break special. Once it's within 48hrs I'll be more interested. 102hrs. psshh please. This winter has not had any luck with forecasting snow out that far.

Kyle said...

I have the same questions as Russ. I'm worried about the L pressure track going too far west of us. Also, weather.com is projecting upper 30's for Thursday and the lower 50's(!) for Sunday in their (albeit notoriously inaccurate) 10 day forecast. They're going to have to be really off for this winter precip to develop. Their also calling for essentially just rain those days. At least they project a long weather event though. Keep the updates coming, I love this site!

Mr. Foot said...

I'm placing my bets on the fact there won't be 2 lake cutters in a row given a "drifting to neutral NAO" by midweek. I think that is going to negate the chances for a Low to cut up toward the lakes. Could end up another Ohio Valley special that become a triple point low as secondaries develop in the Carolinas.

Again...I am not saying we're lock stock and barrel heading for a major snowstorm. I think it's definitely a mixed precip event, could be snow to ice to rain. I am saying it will have a lot of moisture and if the cold air is in the right place at the right time, a front end dump of snow that sadly would changeover on SE winds.

As for weather.com, I feel they are most useful for the current temp at BWI. Their 10 day projections are as reliable as was our intelligence about pre-war WMD!
(And I'm a Republican saying that).

Give the models a couple days to work it out.

Russ L said...

if anything else, it gives us something to be interested in for the upcoming week. I'm like Mr. Foot, there have been several times the weather so called pro's have predicted higher temp's and snow to rain, then all of a sudden we are in a all snow event and looking at all white outside! It will be fun this week.

Chip said...

It's still pretty far out to be getting excited about the end of the week, it seems to me. Lots can change. Plus, it only does us good in the school context if it comes Thursday night/Friday morning. If things get delayed and we're looking at Friday night, then I'd just as soon it did NOT get snowy and especially not ICY. It's hard to have family movie and pizza night with no power and
Papa John's unable to drive on icy roads! I mean, let's get our priorities straight here, folks! :)

Mr. Foot said...

Chip, I hope I made it clear that I am not hoping for a major ice storm to paralyze the region.

I've been doing this now for 4 years+. I put the ideas out there and see what happens. I'd contend there's more accountability on this site than the TV folk, who can just explain something away in a soundbyte and move on.

I view my job here as to give folks a heads up on what's out there. If I'm wrong, so be it. If I'm right, it gives me another reason to just keep doing what I've been doing.

Signals for the Feb 03 blizzard and the Feb 07 Valentine's Storm were seen 10+ days out. I see the signals again, and I'm spelling out the possibilities, that's all.

Eric said...

Nice posts..Foot...this is starting to remind me of the good old days.

crazedsnowboarder said...

I like this forecast!

E.H. Boston said...

Wow, Mr. Foot, nice to see that you are finally back with great updates...

I agree with the last poster, its like the good old days back in 04-05 with your updates now. The past couple years have been slow, but that's understandable...We got a whole lot of new people here as well. Where's our regulars: Andy South York Co., uncle rico, linda bucks county...the regs?

This storm does look to have a lot of promise, especially for you guys.

18z GFS is much more supressed than the EURO at this time range...still, looks like a general 1-3" event for you guys THU-FRI PM ALONE. I wouldn't be surprised if someone right around DC to BWI picked up 3-5" of snowfall in that 24-36 hour period.

Then now at 132 hours, all eyes turn southwestward toward the TX GC as we watch our potential Kahuna.

Will post again once we see how this all pans out on the 18z. Should be fun to watch pan out.

Nice to be back to a great discussion.

E.H. Boston said...

Yup, 18z GFS went to the supression route this time for the weekend storm. Still throws back a 1-3" storm from BWI-PHI. I like this setup though...would like that HP to be further west though, but at 150-160 hours out, can't ask for much more. Given the NW trends this year, this looks good, IMO.

Something to look forward to in this dismal stretch so far. Monday looks like mid 50's and heavy rain here in Boston with someone cracking 60? Maybe. Warm and wet all up and down the EC Monday then a return to colder temperatures at least.

Chip said...

Thanks for your continued informative insights, Mr. Foot. I was just joshing about the fact that an ice storm would put (gasp) a terrible crimp in my pizza-eating plans! A couple weeks ago, my students said I didn't look forward to a day off from school as much as they did, and I said not only did I, but I did 20 times as much as they did. They said, how do you figure that? I answered that they see about 7 teachers in a day, and I see about 140 students, so 7 into 140 is a factor of 20... ergo, I like snow (or ice) days 20 times as much as they do! They were impressed that I actually did the math, considering I'm an English teacher! Have a great long weekend Mr. Foot and all!

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the heads up Mr. Foot.. I have a meeting planned for next week and want to be able to get contingency plans in place!

:::wavin::: Hi E.H... no travels to fun contries this year? You certainly have had your fill of snow this winter havent you?!

sure hope we can get at least ONE good snow in before Spring Sports start... although I am happy for just one make up day as of now!!

Mr. Foot.. I will be be keepin' a close eye on your forecasts for the spring sports season!!

Anonymous said...

oops.. .EH.. that would be COUNTRIES... I need sleep.. bring on the SNOW!

Kyle said...

Well, it looks like the Baltimore/DC NWS is saying that it does look like a prolonged precip event later this week, but that the models are not agreeing, so they're going with the "status quo" for now. They also mention a coastal L pressure that could move up the coast. Are they talking about the Tennessee Valley low that will transform into a coastal low, or is this a completely different low? As for this weekend's precip, it definitely looks like a rain event...too bad too because if it had dropped some snow, it might have helped to lower the temps for later this week. I'm still getting used to this region's weather behavior. This "coastal low" stuff is foreign to me :-)

Mr. Foot said...

Thanks for everyone's interesting and thought-provoking discussion today. Your questions are helpful because they assist me in refining my thinking about the storm.

Welcome back to the group Dr. E.H. it is fun to get into the meat of pre-storm analysis. But alas the main reason I have been able to do this today is:
1. Long Weekend
2. Grammy is here to save our sanity

It is difficult to do detailed analysis all the time when there's 2 sub-5-year-olds in the house.

Complicating things even more is that we have a major ski trip this weekend to Seven Springs, and I'm trying to pull the last people on board. In a way, I almost hope not to have the storm because it would seriously jeopardize our weekend plans as well as the money.

:::big sigh::: so it is going to be a long week followed by a tiring weeekend either way.

I see models are fighting with each other and even HPC is recognizing the potential that the Euro is an outlier.

Tomorrow will bring a new round of things to talk about, I'm sure.

TQ said...

Teleconnection forecasts from four major LR models are all favorable for 2/22 event. Then again...all the best storms this winter have been just seven days away!

-AO; -NAO; +PNA

(Links are time sensitive)

Arctic Oscillation (AO)
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/indices/day1/ao_fd6.gif

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/indices/day1/nao_fd6.gif

Pacific North-American (PNA)
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/indices/day1/pna_fd6.gif

Anonymous said...

uhmm.. did your RED text just get bigger and bolder? :::scratchin head:::: inquiry minds want to know!!

Mr. Foot said...

Yes, it did nasd, so my quick update crowd will get the message early in the post.

Special thanks to Mr. TQ for lending his expertise to the developing situation. I appreciate it very much, though have to agree that's been the trend this year. The next storm is always 7-10 days away and seems to just stay there.
Now that we're inside 6 days and 5 tomorrow, I don't think we can get out of this one as easy.

Julee said...

Gosh Mr. Foot, thanks for the link to the 2003 storm, I had forgotten about the train museum roof collapse!

Also read about the 1996 storm. I had had my first chemotherapy treatment on the 5th. The storm hit the next day, but I was too ill to shovel out my car.
A week later, when I COULD dig it out (and after several melts and re-freezes) my car's tires were FROZEN in three inches of ice. Had to pay fifty dollars to have it "towed" (twelve inches) out of it's own parking space.
Learned a lesson -- dig those wheels out as *soon* as possible, you never know what will happen next!

Kyle said...

Just finished looking at your 2003 blizzard slide show, great stuff! I'm already salivating at the prospect of this storm, and you can bet that I'll be out there taking millions of pictures if it does in fact happen. I have a decent working understanding of all things weather, but I haven't delved that much into weather map models, so I'm still learning quite a bit. I'm having trouble finding the Tennessee vs. coastal lows, any advice? Are they the same thing (eventually)? Thanks and keep it coming!

Mr. B said...

I am looking forward to just what we need Tomorrow-Monday. More rain.

Latest 0ZGFS Bufkit showed 6" of snow for the over running event. humm we'll see.

Mr. Foot. I messaged you on easterns a few times but, you have not gotton back. Or just e-mail me.

Mr. Foot said...

Sorry Zak, didn't know that was you! Also have been recovering from being sick recently and not myself (was actually someone else for a while). I usually ignore communications on Eastern and only read discussions. Email is best... rfoot@bcps.org. How is PSU?

Glad you all liked the slideshow, tried to embed it in the post, will try again.

Kyle: Go to the section on Computer Models in the column links, and click on GFS 120 HOUR. It will bring up a loop of the current projection over the next week. You'll see how a series of Lows develop along the frontal boundary..how the GFS is bringing down the High, and how the Lows seem to gather strength near Tennessee before heading north east.

There is on going consternation about the Euro showing a total unadulterated lakes cutter, but many are not buying it. A collapsing NAO alone would tend to prevent that. However, HPC's prelim extended discussion as of 358 AM seems to suggest they are not sure how to resolve the fact that the GFS appears the outlier in keeping high pressure centered where powderhounds want it.. in SE Canada.

Also Zak..could you provide a link how to to Bufkit? Is it the same as the station model sounding in the coolwx.com site?

Reading local NWS discussions, everyone seems also not to buy the Euro solution and is hedging towards a late week significant winter storm. Looking forward to today's analyses.

Eric said...

I know the DGEX model is horrid, but it is similar to the GFS in that it has an elongated frontal system set up and then have a parade of snow/ice from DC-BWI-PHI and eventually NYC, before petering out leaving BOS high and dry. It actually looked like a pretty good setup, not sure what it was advertising for the weekend storm, but it looked like a warm one...ie Lakes Cutter.

NAO forecasts would seem to dispute that, but the NAO is not heading strongly NEG from POS during this timeframe and is generally going nuetral. So, I tend to discount the GFS's attempt to keep everything supressed and south of DC. So, I think we will eventually see something that goes in between these two EXTREMES, but wouldn't at all be surprised if we ended up with a Hudson River Cutter, still giving rain to all the major cities from DC to Boston.

Its a highly volatile weather pattern and one that you should not get your hopes up too high with because things probably will not pan out if you do.

CMS Teach said...

Speaking long term, does the wintry weather forecasted for this upcoming week represent our last real chance of a somewhat major event this season?

Thanks for your efforts.

E.H. Boston said...

To cms teach..I think the early part of March could have something to surprise us...if we don't get anything this week, March could be a big month.

CMS Teach said...

thanks e.h. i certainly hope you are right; 5 day teaching weeks are difficult!

Chip said...

I agree, cms teach, after this Prezzie's Day short week, we have a bunch of actual 5 day weeks on tap! Ugh! Oh well, at least Spring Break comes early this year, thanks to the lunar cycle!
Thanks for the cool '03 stuff, Mr. Foot!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Mr foot,
Nice blog and write up. Here's my writeup and thoughts on this potential system for later this week.

http://ruggieweather.blogspot.com/

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=157429

Take Care,
Ruggie

Mr. Foot said...

Right you are Dr. E.H. This makes me think of previous storms we thought were going to stay south and kept coming farther and farther north.. like the Valentine's Day Massacre of 07, of the Jan 05 Boston Blizzard (your favorite!)

Everyone should take a look at Ruggie's Blog and writeup on the storm, I added him to the "Others Are Saying" links.

I wonder if "the secret lies with Charlotte" this time is the NAO. I agree it is not heading negative. My point is how will a drift back to neutral play out in this scenario... perhaps allow the high to not press south but hold in place as the moisture overruns.

I also wonder about what happens if we get a tightening pressure gradient if one of those lows starts to wrapup as it nears the coast. Any thoughts on where the vortmax will setup with this storm (or series of)?

Kyle said...

Thanks Mr. Foot for the map guidance, I appreciate it. As for your updated "how much" calling for 4 or more inches, I'm calling that our "baseline." Always the optimist, I think we'll get much more, of course I'm basing that on pure desire...haha. Just in case you all haven't read the NWS discussion, it remains quite promising:

TRENDS IN THE
00Z ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN IS TO PUSH HIGH PRES FURTHER SOUTH PUTTING
CNTRL AND SRN VA MORE UNDER THE GUN INITIALLY FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIP
ON THU BUT AS COASTAL LOW FORMS ALONG FRONT AND WARM FRONT TRIES TO
LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT THE ENTIRE REGION COULD BE
UNDER THE GUN FOR A POTENTIALLY SIG WINTER STORM.

So, all eyes on that Canadian high pressure!

Mr. Foot said...

I just posted some puzzling ideas with the NAO.

I do recognize that the Lakes Cutter today/tomorrow is the main force behind the NAO moving positive in the short term, and a deep trough behind it. That all makes sense. My issue is if the NAO is staying POSITIVE then WHY WOULD THERE BE AN ARCTIC ATTACK???
Have you see thicknesses over Baltimore for Friday on the GFS map...528 dm, that would be a high of 30, low of 15 in my rough estimate. 13+ deg below normal.

Something is rotten and it's not in Denmark. At least it seems NWS offices nearby are not totally buying all the guidance.

Look closely at the times of their discussions... HPC posted mid morning, then Baltimore then Philly, so I would guess they read HPC before posting theirs.

I know I'm splitting hairs at the micron level here, but in a major storm situation, we're all clamoring to locate the canary in the coalmine.

Kyle: The 4" call is a baseline in that we could get UP to 4" if indeed everything is suppressed, or at least 4" if it goes overboard and comes north.

E.H. Boston said...

I don't like it when people just take model runs verbatim, but the 12z GFS has very much downplayed the overrunning event on its last two consecutive runs (06z and 12z) I am not backing down from my 1-3" call for DC-BWI, but am starting to pull at my collar a little bit.

It now takes that HP off the MA/NE coast and allows the weak storm system to travel up through the western Ohio River Valley for Saturday and take more of a route past CLE and then towards SYR, flooding the MA and NE with mild rain showers for Sunday for STORM 2. NAO looks to go + per this model run, which does not bode well for this storm or subsequent storms down the road.

So for STORM 1...I think we keep our thinking the same. Its not going to be a major event, but 1-3" is possible from DC to PHI, and I would generally go on the lower end of that range for obvious trends. North of PHI to New England should stay dry.

Then STORM 2 looks like a warmer system for us. Both the EURO and GFS are now showing a mild rainstorm, after GFS was showing supression earlier. Will have to wait on later runs to see if the GFS has yet again trended toward the EURO. However, I think the EURO is way to amplified and will not be a raging Lakes Cutter as they depict.

Again, HP placement in SE Canada is crucial and I don't think we will see that with STORM 2. It is still 5-7 days away, so much can change. Stick with this site for the latest updates and wait for Mr. Foot's input. Until then...have a nice Sunday.

Mr. Foot said...

Eric, wait, don't go just yet. Are you referring to Storm 1 as the one in Missouri now? And Storm 2 is the one coming Thu-Fri.

Just for clarification.

Julee said...

That wacky Henry Margusity is saying that the storm will "streak east" Wednesday into Thursday. Would an earlier start make it a different storm all around?

Mr. Foot said...

You do know I put Henry on there for "entertainment purposes only" as Tom Michocki from the Office of Science and I were chuckling about on Friday.

And let's not start talking about streaking now or BCPS will block the site again!

Julee said...

Well I DID use the modifier "wacky."
Sorry about the phraseology.

Sorry,
Dorothy ... the small and ... meek

Anonymous said...

Hey Mr. Foot.. ever seen this forum?

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=4955

Mr. Foot said...

Well, true. Henry is at least an actual real life certified meteorologist. Unlike me (and Marty) although I'm not lumping us together as similar in any other category.

NASD: I have seen the forums and might join but I only read posts and don't participate. Too emotional and time consuming.

Mr. B said...

Bufkit:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_GFS_00.html

To download the program:

http://wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BUFKIT/index.html

Go to the first link after you download bufkit. Right click on your station (EX KHGR) dot, and save target as. Save it somewhere so you can open it. Then open bufit, press select in the upper right, then archive upper left. Then open your file. Your done. Have fun.