Friday, February 22, 2008

SATURDAY = SLOW WARMING, MUCH MELTING

FRI 2-22 4:00 PM. The latest Baltimore NWS forecast indicates that while the storm is not over, we are on the upside and bulk of precip has passed. Intermittent freezing rain and drizzle along with areas of fog throughout the DC and Baltimore regions may hamper the evening commute. As Capital Weather pointed out, when the sun dips, some wet less traveled areas will likely refreeze somewhat. I also am pleased to bring you a new feature and interactive feature discovered on their site. You can active it simply by clicking and scrolling.


MAXIMUM ICE AMOUNTS: (FRI PM: Obviously this entire section of the forecast busted, no one saw ice amounts exceeding 1/4" in the entire region, according to storm reports.) My projection of icing inside the numbers posted above. From Washington to Baltimore: .50" of freezing rain / .75" of sleet (includes the adjacent Metro Counties) Areas farther north and west (from Carroll County on west and north: .25" of freezing rain / .50" of sleet. From Harford County north and east to Philadelphia and it's western suburbs: .75" of freezing rain / 1" of sleet.


MAIN IMPACTS: Snow changing to sleet and then freezing rain by noon south of the PA-MD line, and over to freezing rain by nightfall north of the PA-MD line. (FRI PM: That part did generally occur, although much earlier than expected, by mid morning in many locations) Once accumulating snowfall has ended and freezing rain trends become clear, NWS will likely switch Winter Storm Warnings over to Ice Storm Warnings for much of the region. This may very well lead to one of the most paralyzing ice events of recent years for the I-95 corridor, and could surpass the Valentine's Week Disaster of 2007 at least in terms of total ice accretion. (FRI PM: Since 1/4 - 1/2 inch of ice did not materialize, neither did these predictions verify)

FRI 2-22 10:00 AM. For those of you new to the site, we have a special term in the Baltimore region which is reserved just for events like this...CLEAN SWEEP! That means all metro area county schools are closed, along with the vast majority of the private schools, and reduced schedules/liberal leave at county and state government offices in addition to many community colleges deciding to close. I learned late this morning that even brave and strong Garrett County closed, and there were delays across the Lower Eastern Shore. A similar story is being repeated from Kentucky to West Virginia, through Central and Southeastern PA and into New York/New England. In fact, every school district I've ever lived or worked in (6 of them.. PA/MD) is closed today. Unfortunately, it is not a total sweep as it appears some district offices remained open, especially Baltimore County. So a special "wish-it-could-have-been-a-Happier-Friday-for-you" message goes out to all the office workers who now have to take a vacation day if they want to stay home. There's also many commuters whom still have to brave the elements today, and I'm sure you can tell by looking out the window they are brave people indeed. Here's hoping you all can at least try to leave early, and that you make it home safe without having squeezed your knuckles off while driving.



inmaSIRNE



There now, doesn't all that make you feel warm and cozy inside? Please continue to post your location and observations in the comments, especially your temp and total snow/ice thus far. I will leave all the previous posts on this storm below so you can reminisce and look back at the evolution of the forecast. When time and children needs permit, I will post a brief overview of ideas going forward into next week regarding the potential SuperKahuna. Happy Friday Everyone!

71 comments:

Mr. B said...

GFS colder and a little drier but still good.

Mr. Foot said...

Thanks Mr. B for the model updates, really does help to give us a quick sense of what's going on. Have you tried the RUC?

Mr. B said...

Nah, not lately. Been updating my forecast, and chatting on aim.

Kyle said...

Mr. Foot, not to push the issue, but any tidbit on that big storm you were referring to? Or did that kinda die away?

Anonymous said...

Snowin' here in Lutherville-Timonium area! Now if the school system would just call it a day now....

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
crazedsnowboarder said...

no school for me already canceled xD

Mr. Foot said...

Still lots of significant signals for an event next week. Close agreement between GFS and Euro on a huge continental trough in East. Both show a fairly big storm over the Northeast, but are currently showing it as rain.

Remember Euro was off by nearly 500miles 5 days out on where this storm would end up. Will look at it in more detail tomorrow.

Also just noticed a major quick fill in west of DC. Signs that the storm is tapping ocean and bay moisture and bringing it in on an east wind. Good sign indeed.

Kyle said...

Thanks for the update Mr. Foot, much appreciated. It started snowing here, wahoo!

Russ L said...

funny snow pellets falling--and lots of them in perry hall now. now that i see them, time for bed--good night all!

playastyle said...

yup, im here in howard county and we now have light snow. do you think howard county would be canceld? im trying to go over my girlfriends house!!!

Mr. Foot said...

I know this sounds over-confident, but I have two words for ya:

CLEAN SWEEP.

West side of the bay, it's gonna be border to border, you watch.

Night all!

Chris said...

National weather service increased snow amounts for Hereford from 1"-2" to 3"-5" of sleet and snow tonight

playastyle said...

wait! what does clean sweep mean?

photofreak65 said...

It has stopped snowing here. Started at about 10:00, but not now. what's happening?
worried in Hydes

Chip said...

Not much on the ground here in Parkville, and it's after 5:00 am, and no call yet. Maybe I better get in the shower...? Oh well...

Mr. Foot said...

Done. You're welcome BCPS.

Waiting for HarCo, Fred, Carroll, HoCO et al.

Mr.S said...

Well Mr. Foot, I just saw the magic words "All Schools closed due to inclement weather"! Probably the best set of 7 words I could see on a Friday morning! Plus the fact that it was decided before 5:00am!
Hey, on a side note. Did you notice that AA City Gov announced closing last night before 11:00pm news? I thought that was an interesting decision! I also thought that would be our curse, and mother nature would throw that curve ball with a dusting!
Oh and to answer someone's earler post about Newbury school, they open at 6:00 or 6:30 I believe for kids to be dropped off by parents! So 7:30 is like calling for a 1 hr Delay!
Enjoy the 3 day weekend, and hope that the STARS server doesn't crash! Now I just hope the roads clear up on the 95 corridor by 8:00am tomorrow! I was told that trip would NOT be cancelled, we'll see though!
I got a qusetion for you Mr. Foot. So how many days of school will we have next week?
Mr. S

Mr. B said...

Have about 2-3" here. Hope batch two is good, because radar doesn't looks show well.

Mrs. Burke said...

Hey Mr. Foot!
Even my husband is off today! (He's at Johns Hopkins applied physics lab!). It is a fine mixed of what seems to be freezing rain and snow here in Nottingham. The first plow just went by our house.

Here's to another fabulous three day weekend!

Kyle said...

Only a dusting here...did Anne Arundel prove to be in a paradoxical universe again?

Robert K. said...

HoCo is closed according to my mother, we have probably half an inch of snow/sleet mix outside, light stuff still coming, i'm looking at the radar, and it looks like there is going to be some sort of pause in the next couple of hours.

I have to debate commuting to work in Baltimore, wish me luck

Robert K. said...

Sorry, I'm in Ellicott City

Mr. Foot said...

29.5 F in Dundalk, light snow/sleet with basically a 1/4-1/2inch coating of the same.

Kyle, you'll see it eventually, we won't leave you behind. Then again, maybe the atmosphere feels that the 4" surprise dump Wed PM on Annapolis was enough for now?

Another large batch of moisture streaming up from the SE..I'd say we have 4 hours before freezing rain sets in, so last chance to snag something from the store.

Mr. Foot said...

or for you robert.k.. if you want to quick get in, do that as soon as you see a lull in precip, once the fz rain arrives, it's going to stay for a while.

Congrats everyone on another 3-day weekend. You're not tired of these yet are you? Just mark your calendar for Friday June 20 and put in the reservation now with Papa John's for the end-of-year faculty meeting/pizza party.

Isn't planning ahead great! ;-)

Anonymous said...

:::clapping::: Great call again Mr. Foot!

snow lover said...

it seems like it will be awhile until the next batch of precip arrives will it

frankdp23 said...

26 in cnj by rutgers. 4.5" so far.

Mr. Foot said...

30 F and light freezing rain/sleet in Dundalk.

I have a headache. Will try to rest some now that Mommy is up.

Anonymous said...

Not doing anything in Odenton

Robert K. said...

Just made it in to the office, light rain (freezing?) in the city, about 30F
How long until the world ends later?

terpguy said...

Fallston

0830 local

Got up to a winter wonderland...saw the "Clean Sweep"..back to the rack.

Now:

28.5°F
barometer 29.56 Falling
0.5" of new snow
0.13" liquid

Very, very light ZL.

Stay safe and warm, all!

terpguy said...

from last night:

Terpguy, you have the correct "Mac". If I didn't live in an overdeveloped townhouse community with all the barriers you're not supposed to have, I might be on the network. Nice to e-meet you.


Nice to e-meet you, too!

This conversation was in regards to a co-worker of his who was going to "get up" anyway this AM to report to CoCoRaHS.

CoCoRaHS stands for Community Collaberative Rain, Hail, an Snow Network.
It's free and used daily by the NWS (you DO need a decent rain gauge!).
Interested?

GO to:

http://www.cocorahs.org/

Thanks!

Mr. B said...

Nothing here since 4am. Should start up within the next hour though.

John said...

WBAL is saying that everything will change to rain and then become a rain event. What is all that about?

Glad to see that the county made a good call. Yesterday a lot of us were saying the way the county has been lately they would bring us in on a delay, and then maybe reevaluate.

Kyle said...

I've delayed for too long, off to work. If that rain idea is true, according to WBAL, i'm not going to be a happy camper.

Mr.S said...

Time- 9:40am
Location- Severn, MD (AA County)
Status- Not exactly sure what temp is. We may have had 1/2 an inch of snow before it switched over to the sleet/freezing rain. After posting at 5am this morning I went back to bed and quickly heard the sleet hitting the windows, so that started early. Was just outside cleaning of wife's car and it is a combo of freezing rain with a mist of rain. Side streets are covered with a decent layer of ice along with sidewalks. Main streets are fine according to Verizon FIOS man who just stopped by. He said it is af if it were raining!
Here's to a 3 day weekend, with an extention on Interims til Monday!

Grant said...

Mr.Foot Good Call ! Also i sent you my essay and don't forget to grade my things so it can go into my Interim :( !

Mr. Foot said...

32.4 Light freezing drizzle in Dundalk. As for changeover to rain, that could occur S and E of the city, (sorry Kyle, you live too close to the bay..as do I)

But from city N and W, precip will stay all frozen and may never changeover before ending. If anything, there could be dry slots in those areas more than a switch to plain rain. Surface streamlines indicate northeast winds, not screaming in from the southeast. You can see from radar the rain line is having a hard time moving north because there's a lot of energy pushing in from the west. The high is also not budging, just feeding cold moist air in from Atlantic right into the already well developed precip shield. My parents in Chester County, PA already have at least 3" and still snowing.

Besides, even if there was a region-wide changeover in honor of WBAL, so what! :-) That would be a win-win-win. School folk are home anyway, it's a Friday, and things would be better for commuters.

But alas that is not in the cards. My temp at Dundalk has actually dropped from near 33 in the past hour.

Schools.. I believe almost every single county in MD had a closing or delay.. anyone know about Garrett?

Tom said...

Congrats on your snow day down there!

My location in suburban Philly has 3.5" of snow. New York seems to be getting hit really well...good to see the storm do a bit better than thought. Enjoy the weather guys!!!

Tom,
Phillyweather.net

Mr. Foot said...

Thanks Tom, ditto on the overperformance in PHL/NYC and NJ. Comical to see all the weather wonkos living and dying by every model run.. "Nail in the coffin for NYC" etc. So 3-5" is death for them huh?

I'm just glad our schools did not try to pull a fast one this morning, it would have been followed by a realllyy slow one home.

Grant..thanks for the report, will take care of those grades for you, now that we have a slam dunk!

Next week.. definitely a massive cold front will come blasting through Tue-Wed, with rain changing to snow. I'm trying to sniff out storm potential and will report back later.

snow lover said...

give the storm a little and a swath of precip is coming cars covered in ice. Just looked at henry margueitys blog and he said major iceing will acurr and he also mentioned next week so any of you wondering about next week take a look it sounds promising!!!

terpguy said...

Garrett is closed today.

photofreak65 said...

My current temp is 29 degrees. Not doing anything here at the moment. It's hard to tell how much snow we have due to it being packed down already with freezing rain. It was coming down very fast & furious @ 12:50 am. covered everything quickly.

Hydes, MD

Mr. B said...

Light ZR here, not much of a storm really. Maybe one more batch, and this thing is over before 2pm.

Anonymous said...

Calm here in L-T... Glad to have the day off and with no need to "shovel".. but a decent snow fall would have been nice too!

Tom said...

I'm in Parkton and it ain't doing diddly. Temp on my thermometer reads 36 degrees. Roads aren't slick.

Seems like an over-reaction, at least up here. Of course, a friend about 15 miles north reports 5" of snow. So, who knows!

Tom said...

>>Thanks Tom, ditto on the overperformance in PHL/NYC and NJ. Comical to see all the weather wonkos living and dying by every model run.. "Nail in the coffin for NYC" etc. So 3-5" is death for them huh?

You, I, and others know that you can't hug models verbatim. The fast movement of the storm at the surface (thanks to a fast-moving jet) helped to bring in precipitation faster than they thought. The faster movement helped with the snow totals since it was snowing a couple of hours earlier than models had it snowing just 48 hours ago. I'm just glad the snow starved were thrown some scraps from ma nature today!

Tom
Phillyweather.net

Mr. Foot said...

As for roads, my theory is higher sun angle this time of year provides additional radiation to heat dark surfaces, in addition to light traffic helping to warm and keep standing water from refreezing. Adding salt at 31 makes it real easy for roads to stay just wet. But as everyone has observed, all stationary objects are pretty much encased in ice, even in balmy Dundalk at 32.6 F

photofreak65 said...

Just went out and cleared my car off. The ice came off easier than I thought on the side windows. The windshield was a breeze. Currently 30 degrees with light mist falling. can see the ice on the trees though. WBAL noon news said heavier precip to fall around 4:00.
Here in Hydes

Robert K. said...

Winter Storm warning is cancelled, looks like green heading in from the west, nothing going on at the office

Prospero said...

Perky Weather-blonde on Channel 11 indicated rain next week.

Is this true?

How's next week's storm shaping?

photofreak65 said...

we're now under a winter weather advisory. going to go out now. will check back with road conditions in northern Balto. Co.

photofreak65 said...

Love the new map. going to store that one for future use. Thanks.

terpguy said...

Fallston
1325 local
31.1°F
29.41 falling

light to medium ZL

My court is solid ice...not going to venture to a main drag.

snow lover said...

we are in a huge dry slot when will it ice again I am missing something

photofreak65 said...

Just came back from a trip from Hydes to Parkville, no problems. It is misting but nothing is freezing on the windows. car temps went from 29 to 32 depending where I was. trees have a lot of ice. haven't seen the salt trucks but know they've been out. could here it hitting my car. Will there be any issues for the home commute? My husband drives from downtown.

wvm said...

Thanks Mr Foot for the great comments. Yes, I was wvmommyof3 we have definitely grown!! It was a struggle to be in the hospital and listening to all of the hype about the storm and not be able to get on the site:) We are all doing well and actually a little relieved that we missed the big stuff this time. I am not sure how much we will get in the next round of precip that is coming but so far we really do not have much of anything with temps at 34. We are in Inwood WV. Of course any day the kids are off is a good day:) I also used to teach so I get just as excited as anyone when there is a chance of a snowday.It is in the blood!!

Anonymous said...

http://www.cerbslair.com/ltcc/thatsall.wav

Mr. Foot said...

photofreak, although surface temperatures are a tad low, almost the entire area is below freezing, those are stationary locations. The salt crews have done a superb job and higher sun angle no doubt helped warm roads. My wife took one of the Footlings to the library and said roads are fine around here, but some icy patches in parking lots, sidewalks. I would expect main roads to be just wet and above 32. Check the MD Roadway Wx site for road temps.

photofreak65 said...

Thanks Mr Foot. Just went outside for a look around. Driveway and walk getting very slick.

So, anymore on the SuperKahuna?

Kyle said...

Well Mr. Foot, you did a very good job with both the clipper and this storm. Thank you for providing this great site so winter weather addicts, like myself, have some place to go. However, for me this storm was quite marginal. I know the bay could influence my precip and temps, but with Annapolis actually being on the bay and getting 4" with a clipper (Odenton got a dusting) and then Odenton getting the precip equivalent of a passing spring shower for this very large storm, I think you can understand why I think the Odenton area is in a paradox universe. It could be geography, who knows, at any rate it's a true bummer and makes me want to move :-D I can only hope for something next week.

Mr. Foot said...

Sorry it did not work out for you as much as we hoped Kyle, perhaps in the long run it was better for all of us not to be paralyzed under 1/2" of ice though.

I think the freezing rain came in much sooner, 5 hours earlier than expected and that cut down on the whole arrangement.

As for SuperKahuna..well well well. It's been reported the Euro has shown a huge 400 mile shift from was was going to place it near Kansas and now it's progged to be near Kentucky instead.

Also this quote from NCEP:
(note I lifted this from another site but will double check the links)

THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO ALSO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS THERE IS A TREND IN THE MODELS...GFS/CMC/UKMET/12Z GFS ENS MEAN FOR A MORE SWD TRACK WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE SNOW POTENTIAL MORE SWD INTO IL/IN/OH AND INTO PA/NY AND NEW ENG.

FOR NOW WILL HOLD WITH PRIOR PROGS AND CONTINUITY AND WAIT ANOTHER SERIES OF RUNS BEFORE SHIFTING THIS TRACK SWD.

This is very significant because a 400 mile shift in the near future (as shown now) could indicate the start of a further trend toward what we've talked about. A storm riding up an Eastern negatively tilted trough. That would be a SuperKahuna allright.

I'll try to post a map and little blurb on it this evening.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Foot, just out of curiosity .. in terms of least amount of snowfall.. where would this winter rank? It just seems so poor from my recollection... >sigh<

Julee said...

There Will Be Ice.

Tonight?
Everything that looked frozen-ish this afternoon just looks wet-ish now in Pikesville.

I agree with you Mr. Foot, if we couldn't have massive piles of snow, at least we had a day "off" without the scary loss of services hassle.

Thank you so much for the newest EXCELLENT additions to the site!

Kyle said...

Mr. Foot (and Julie), you're absolutely right that not having huge amounts of ice was a good thing. I'm glad most of you got the day off (including my wife). Maybe this winter has one last surprise in store for us. I'm really liking the new 400 mile shift, although I've already promised myself not to get too mentally invested into this (fat change though :-D ) Anyway, looking forward to your next post. Thanks.

wvm said...

I was just looking over some of the comments as far as the talk for a storm next week. I dont know if it means anything but I can tell you that the nurses at the hospital were already talking about the big storm that they heard we were getting some time next week. I imagine they have a teacher like instinct about the weather too. I can truly get excited about this one:)

Kyle said...

I'll take a stab at the more obvious macro elements that were in our disfavor (this will probably show my ignorance):

1)The NAO did not trend negative, rather trended positive while the PNA Index also stayed on the positive side. We wanted a negative/positive setup.

2)A strong La Nina hasn't helped us this whole winter, however I was thinking that it actually would on this storm because of the warmer than normal gulf, but alas it didn't.

3)The jet stream seemed to be too fast and too strong, thus carrying the storm quicker than predicted, perhaps robbing some moisture gathering time.

4)Longer than desired southerly winds eating at that cold air dome.

4)Those darn mountains and mean bay: Seems like storm after storm looks good on the radar over Ohio/Tennessee until they reach the Appalachian Mts. where any storm seems to come out deformed and weaker. The bay, as Mr. Foot has mentioned, keeps on radiating heat throughout the winter, which surely didn't help our pre-storm temps.

If I'm way off base please correct me. I'm still learning :-)

TchrLyn said...

I just discovered your site and I think it's great - thanks! I'm also a (elementary) science teacher in Balt. Co. Now if only Dr. H would use your site to call the snow day the night before so i could sleep through the morning.

I'm moving next Sat (March 1) weather.com is curently calling for rain. What's the chance it will turn into a dry day to make my moving day/life easier?

Kyle said...

heh...so obviously my second #4 is a 5 on that last post.

I know this is faaaarrrrr away, but the GFS 2 week loop is showing a nice bundle of energy for the first week of March too. As this is my first winter here I've been asking around about Maryland winters and every single person I asked said winter always pulls out a last hoorah in March just as everyone is getting into the spring spirit. Thoughts?

Mr. Foot said...

Welcome to the group tchrlyn, glad to see a fellow science teacher. I hope the storm was good to you, and that March 1 will be even better. Don't place a lot of trust in the weather.com 7-8 day forecast, it is tied directly to a computer model that changes every 6
hours. I'll bet you'll see more dry than wet weather on that day, but that the forecast for 3/1 will probably change 25 times between now and then. Good luck, hope the move goes well!