Saturday, June 28, 2008

"IT HAPPENED BEFORE...IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN.
It's just a question of W H E N."
- voice of Charleton Heston, in the opening scene from Armaggedon.
1. EXCESSIVE HEAT DISMISSALS. June 28 followup comment: The call made on June 5 played out in Baltimore County Schools as expected, with a 3 hour early dismissal due to heat on Monday June 9. am wagering that many county school systems in central Maryland and Northern Virginia will be forced to close 2 - 3 hours early this coming Monday. It's actually not about the daytime high..but rather the overnight low. If you arrive to school at 7AM Monday with a morning temperature already at 80 F in 90% humidity, it will not take long for regular daytime heating to boost that up to 90 before lunchtime.


2. ISABEL WAS ONLY A REHEARSAL. The current weather pattern I believe is a continuation of what I explained to many people at my school and elsewhere. The Mid Atlantic would experience a fairly cool and drawn out spring, with temperatures staying at or below normal. Then come early June, we would race into the 90's and stay above normal into July. The traditionally hottest periods of the year..late July into early August, may in fact be cooler than normal, and that I am concerned might setup a persistent upper level trough along the East Coast. With La Nina now backing off and the possibility of even switching over to a weak El Nino, this whole scheme is looking eerily similar to the summer of 2003. Were the Bermuda High to back off into the Atlantic come September, and a weak trough establish near the coast, this has the potential to steer any western Atlantic tropical systems toward the Eastern seaboard. Since 2003, I have been telling hurricane watchers and many others that Isabel was truly just a rehearsal, and the bigger threat is a 1933 type Category 2-3 storm that travels up the west side of the Chesapeake Bay. You know what Mr. Heston said, right...


3. SUNSPOTS, PACIFIC WATERS AND POLAR SEA ICE. These are three major influences on Eastern US winter weather that will be receiving top-billing on this site over the next 6 months. Were you to combine the upcoming sunspot cycle minimum (decreased solar output this winter) with a switch over from a currently fading La Nina to a possible weak El Nino, and a rapid return of Northern Hemisphere snowcover and polar sea ice...what do you have? I believe these three factors point to a less-than-active hurricane season followed by above normal snowfall for the Northeast and Mid-Alantic. My overall projection for this region is that this coming winter will more than make up for the lackluster performance of the previous two and closely resemble 2002-03. You all no doubt remember that season featured the February President's Day Blizzard (remembered now as "PD II" ) among many other heavy snowfalls in the I-95 corridor. I remember it well for the 9 snow days in the Baltimore County Schools.

10 comments:

Mary said...

Bring it on!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

::::ding ding ding:::: we have a winner... several schools in HarCo are closing early due to heat...

Prospero said...

It wasn't bad today in Baltimore County. I had my Central Air go up around Memorial Day. Had the new system installed today (thanks to my brother-in-law), just in time methinks.

Good news about next winter. It will help keep me cool over the next several days.

Mr. Foot said...

I wager that we will awaken to the TV scroll which reads:

Baltimore County Schools closing 3 hours early today.

Or..if they don't make the announcement early, students and staff will be told upon arrival at school.

For the skeptics out there..it is currently 93 F at almost 10 PM.
By 3PM when many elementaries are letting out, you'll have a heat index of 110 F. Never in early June have I seen this before, will be a historical moment for sure.

terpguy said...

The un-AC'd schools in Harford County are closing at noon Monday.

Julee said...

Okaaaaaaay ... we're waaaaaitinnnnng.
Went to an HMS retirement party on Saturday night. Unanimous vote that tomorrow will be a half day ... we hope (we aren't air conditioned)!
It was ALREADY SO hot in that building on FRIDAY!

terpguy said...

0600 local
9 June

[Baltimore County] Schools closing 3 hours early. No PM Pre-K.

Mr. Foot said...

Your welcome..

How can it be that a HEREFORD school is unAC'd. If you want to see true dedication to the profession..come to Dundalk and embrace the furnace that is our second floor!

terpguy said...

Man, I sure am lucky my school has AC, it would really...

wait...


that's right!

















I don't have to go to school any more!!


Myah-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha.....


..he laughed insanely.

Julee said...

Hey TERPGUY! Attempt to control your non-working self!

Yep HMS is NOT AC'ed I've been there since it opened and the "story" we got on the very first day was that when the school was being planned, parents were asked if they wanted windows or air-conditioning. The parents said, "Windows, so the kids can see the beautiful country side."
If you believe THAT, I'm selling the British Crown Jewels on eBay.

GREAT call Mr. Foot! You'll be out of the furnace (and into the fire?) in two more days!