Tuesday, September 2, 2008

"BUSY, BUSY, BUSY"
- Professor Hinkle, the fussy magician from Frosty the Snowman

Atlantic Basin 9-1-08

TUESDAY AM UPDATE: With all school districts now back in session, or just about to resume, I realize that many of you have limited time to wade through extensive posts, and just want the basics on the next storm. We will be returning to the format employed during busy winter storm season, which is as follows:

1. SUMMARY: The next 10 to 12 days may prove to be the most active period we've seen in the Atlantic basin for quite some time. By Friday there could easily be 3 moderate hurricanes on the docket all generally heading toward the Eastern Seaboard: Hanna to strike the Carolinas on Saturday (if she survives the 'shear onslaught' going on 2 days now), Ike could thread the Florida straits needle and enter the Gulf by next weekend, followed by soon-to-be Josephine which could follow a traditional Cape Verde track and approach the East Coast by the middle of next week. Gustav's remnants will continue bringing heavy rains along the Mississippi Valley and into the southern Ohio Valley.

2. ANALYSIS: Over the next several days, maps and discussion of the upper air flow will be posted in this section. The feedblitz email service will not automatically resend this post, so please check back in for an update. Let's start with the Atlantic 24 hour 500mb forecast.

Atlantic 500mb 9-3-08

Very briefly, notice the main 3 upper systems currently hampering Hanna's ability to organize: (dm is decameters.. how thickness of the atmosphere is measured at different levels)

(a) Counterclockwise air flow moving south from the 564 dm Low off the Mid-Atlantic; (b) Clockwise flow also moving south around the 590 dm Ohio Valley high pressure ridge; (c) weakening but still present outflow from Gustav. The ridge is going to continue building east all day, and Gustav's outflow is not slackening all that fast. If Hanna does not overcome these influences in the next 12-24 hours, then I suspect many forecasters will have to throw their predictions out and start over.

3. FORECAST: Once the analysis is posted and the short-to-long range projections complete, this section is moved to the top of the page. With so many storms to track, a time saver all of us will be that adjustments can be made to the overall forecast without cluttering your inbox with continual mini-posts and little updates.

18 comments:

Foot's Forecast said...

Looking over Hanna's situation, something tells me this is not going to work out for the forecasters the way they anticipate. Seems to be Hanna is going to get bungled up over Haiti as the previous 2 storms have. Seeing that convection get flattened to the south suggests the sheer on Hanna's north side is going to be fairly strong, and there would have to be pretty fast relaxing of that wind to allow her to pull the convection back near the center.

Overall, I'm expecting the entire forecast track to be scaled back, delaying landfall by another 24 hours, with a Saturday landfall in the Carolinas instead of Friday, and tracking across the Northeast on Sunday instead of Sat. Any further delay is going to start jeopardizing the Monday schedule, especially if high winds produce lots of downed trees and power outages on Sunday.

I know this is thinking way ahead, but I just can't see that storm pulling it together and then charging north all of a sudden in the face of the shear currently. Anyone else seeing this?

Mr. Brisko said...

Kinda, how strong do you think she will be up our way?

Foot's Forecast said...

Depends totally on if she makes it through today. I am seeing similar comments on EasternUSWx. Three forces working against her are the outflow from Gustav, influence from the upper level Low near Nova Scotia and in conjuction with the eastern ridge. All this is conspiring to give Hanna a tough time trying to close the circulation. I read that some folks on Eastern think she might form a center ssw of Haiti. That happens and the whole forecast is thrown out and we have to start over. We shall see how NHC accounts for this at 11 am advisory.

Anonymous said...

The weather channel is comparing Hanna to Floyd with all the rainfall that may ocurr here.

Foot's Forecast said...

To all the Feedblitz subscribers out there, I just want to point out that because the update appears in your mailbox at strange hours like 3:02 AM and 4:05 AM DOES NOT MEAN I AM ACTUALLY UP BLOGGING AT THAT TIME! The server scans the site once a day at that time and sends along a new post if it discovers one has been published. I say this because family members have occasionally been wondering out loud if I'm putting too much time into this or jeopardizing my health by blogging at 4:00 AM. I can safely say I have never stayed up that late on the computer and never will. Sleep is a highly valued commodity in these parts.

Back to the storms.. yes I agree Hanna could be a Floyd depending on the track and speed. Going WEST of the Bay is definitely a worse track than east of it for sure.

So all my tidal friends, better start thinking about the boats, piers, waterfront property etc. Could be a surge of a couple feet in the inlets. I will look into that more and report back later.

Anonymous said...

Looks like we have some juicy weather coming. How exciting!

Anonymous said...

I can't tell you how Happy I am that you are posting again!....this summer has been so boring and I so look forward to your posts! ...Lisa

Linda said...

Site looks great Mr Foot. Up here in Bucks County we sure could use some rain. Any chances of anything coming close to the Jersey shore?

Anonymous said...

did you see henry margusitys blog from accuweather he has winds 40 to 80 mph for md. that would be awesome but it is unfortunate that it won't happen on a school day. also did you see frank straits blog he says that hanna could. rapidly intesify because pressure is dropping even in this shear.

Foot's Forecast said...

Hanna now appears Baltimore bound, and Saturday will be a rainy windswept day. The biggest risk will be isolated tornadoes, so I expect much of coastal MidAtlantic will be under a tornado watch at different times as Hanna passes. North and South Carolina are also likely to have a high risk of tornadoes from this.. the fast forward movement by Fri-Sat along with the cyclonic turning will spawn a lot of curvature in the mid levels.

Improving news is that NHC takes Hanna's path through the M/A now slightly more east of the Bay.. more like Floyd in 99. This will limit the chance for widespread heavy flooding and tidal surges, but crossing Bay waters could give the storm a tiny extra boost and make for some surprisingly destructive wind gusts on the DelMarVa Saturday.

Anonymous said...

Floyd was horrible in cnj. The town Bound Brook next to mine was nearly destroyed with about 20 ft. of water. I really hope a situation like that doesn't occur again. Plus now I have a house with a basement, and I don't want to have tons of water in it. I hope she moves fast when she makes it up here.

Frank

Foot's Forecast said...

Hey Frank I'm with you on that.. what I meant by "improving news" is that instead of an inland track..she should be more along the coast and moving much faster than Floyd, as well as much weaker winds. I cna see gusts to 40 mph but not 80 as Henry M of Accuweather was suggesting. Even in Isabel no stations in MD, DE or NJ reported hurricane force gusts, though that did occur in Virginia.

Bottom line, an eastward trending track is better for everyone.

Mr. Brisko said...

NOOOO, lol. I want to have some fun. I would wait another 24hrs, before ideas on tracks. Once Hanna starts to move then well see where she is going.

Anonymous said...

I would love to see some interesting weather. I love storms, heavy rain, and wind!

Foot's Forecast said...

Hey all, I will be posting again later this evening, a busy day and little time to post. Looks like Hanna could be shades of Floyd with a dash of Isabel???!?!?

Anonymous said...

that would be awesome for baltimore county. do you think we would be off school on Monday. why can't it hit on a weekday

Anonymous said...

ike cat 3 andmay hit the eastern seaboard. worst case would be a new Orleans hit. and this looks good win my forecast a few days ago about it being a cat 5 at some point. why did the winds almost double in a few hours

Mr. Brisko said...

No recon, and RI.