Saturday, September 6, 2008

MOVIN' ON UP
SUNDAY AM COMMENT: I am working on a summary of ideas looking ahead to the remaining portion of the hurricane season, and whether or not Hanna was a sign of things to come for the East Coast, or just an isolated event. Check back later today or this evening for the full update.

Hanna Radar 9-6-08 3PM

6PM UPDATE: With the center now crossing the Bay and heavy rain bands subsiding across the area, I think you're looking at the grand finale of Hanna for the Chesapeake region, and conditions have begun improving at least in the Baltimore area. As you can see from the radar, Pennsylvania is getting c-c-c-clobbered with monsoonal like downpours. A recent report from Cecil County indicates remnants of the decaying eyewall have moved just south of the area, with a rapid wind shift to the north. In Maryland, expect the strong gusty (but dry!) winds to continue well into the evening as the storm moves to our northeast. Any water that piled up during high tide may be slow to drain out at first, but once the northwest winds work in conjunction with the waning tide, the water will recede quickly.

12PM UPDATE: Analyzing the track, and noticing that NHC changed the projected path, I am thinking Hanna will travel along a line from East of Richmond, across St. Mary's County, to Cambridge, MD to right over Dover, DE. That's starkly different crossing southern DelMarVa don't you think?

8AM UPDATE: The latest radar makes me wonder if this is going to track up and along the WEST side of the Chesapeake Bay, and not through lower Delmarva as currently projected by the NHC. That would have huge implications for the forecast, especially considering that most waterfront property owners along the Bay right now believe this storm is not a major surge threat. Follow the DC-Baltimore NWS discussions to see if they account for it. Remember now, NWS and NHC project tidal surges of 1-3 feet on the western shore. If Hanna tracks along the Bay or west of it, I am saying now those surges COULD be double... 3-6 feet and may flood homes that were expecting little or no water. Until we turn our attention to Major Hurricane Ike, I will keep the main page short so you can post your observations, thoughts and reactions below, and include your location!

Hanna Radar 9-6-08 Accuweather

47 comments:

Anonymous said...

BioPat from Catonsville here; I have been watching weather maps all morning and tend to agree with your thoughts. Based on its current positioning and forward speed the slight western movement looks more and more probable.

Anonymous said...

what would that do tlfor winds in reisterstown. why is the tropical storm warning just for southern Baltimore county

Anonymous said...

Heavy rain. Gusts 17.2 and 12.3 in Pasadena, MD near the water. If hanna tracks near the bay, would we get more rain in AA County? Thanks.

Lori and Kyle said...

Hey Mr. Foot! I was delighted to see that you were on top of things when I came back to the website after the long break from winter. So far, there's just a light rain and only a gentle breeze here in the Odenton area. I told those around me to prepare for the storm, but I think they're scratching their heads so far because of the apparent lack of severe weather. But, there's still much time yet. So we'll see!

Foot's Forecast said...

Thanks Matt in Pasadena.

Definitely. Those bands will sweep moisture off the warm Bay surface and dump inland over AA, Montco, Ho Co, Fred and on NW. In fact the heavier rain may even occur WEST of the cities, not EAST if this trend continues.

Furthermore, coastal communities on the upper Eastern shore are in for a surprise as the water gets funneled in their direction more when they were expecting very little.

Is there anyone out there on the waterfront who can report the tide status?

Anonymous said...

So what would this mean for people who live on the water in Dundalk and Essex. My parents, in-laws and grandmother all own waterfront property and think nothing is going to happen. Should I warn them?

Anonymous said...

does anyone think of power outages. could this be a lot worse then expected

Foot's Forecast said...

Well, just keep a close eye on the water. I would seriously park someone in a chair on the porch and have them keep monitoring the water level. Someone I spoke with in Middle River whose house was demolished in Isabel said that inside 30 minutes the water rose 5 feet. The expectation they were given from the news back then was.. "no big deal." Sound familiar?

Anonymous said...

so what are peoples thinking of school delays or cancelations. is the track farther to the west

Anonymous said...

High Tide at Locust Point has appx. 4 1/2 hour to go. A nice rain is falling and little wind.

Anonymous said...

My husband is on his way to Stoney Creek in Pasadena. Will keep you posted on what is happening to the water down that way. Raining steadily here and has been since 8:30 this morning. not sure how much. Trees block my rain gauge. Little breezy too. So what's the status? Will it go up the bay?
Hydes

Anonymous said...

I am writing from the Eastern Panhandle of WV..So far we have had about .25 of rain. Our forecast just went from cloudy with an occasional shower ( even though we were under a flash flood watch) to "Rain will increase as the morning progresses to 1/2 to 1 inch per hour. With occasional wind gusts up to 40 mph. Quite the change dont you think...
WVMOMMYOF5
Sorry that I have to write as anon. I can not get the google/Blogger to accept my password. I have even tried to reset it. I dont know what is going on.

Foot's Forecast said...

So Mr. High Tide at Locust Point, do you see any feeder bands or outflow? Did you take up the carpet and hobble deck?

Can this be blamed on Bush or Global Warming or Both.

(oh, sorry, not GW.. "Climate Change" ;-)

pssst.. everyone else, that was my Dad.

Foot's Forecast said...

At least I think it was.

Good move Pasadena folks. If you're concerned about water levels, now is the time to keep an eye on it before the circulation center gets closer.

Based solely on radar interpretation, I'm thinking that the center may track on a line toward Dover, not Salisbury.

11AM NHC Advisory might reflect this, we shall see.

Anonymous said...

Already had many heavy rain bands in Catonsville/Arbutus area. Slight breeze, but I know the more severe weather won't hit until much later this afternoon. I am sure the greatest winds and heaviest rain will hit Catonsville around 4:40 as I leave for Mass; something about Murphy's Law.

Anonymous said...

I walked down the street to Rock Creek. Water is getting pushed into Rock creek from the potapsco river. Waves are about 1-2 feet. Water has risen to almost pier level.

Time Winds (MPH) Gusts (MPH)
9:45 AM 3.5 17.2
9:50 AM 0.6 12.3
9:51 AM 2.0 22.3
9:55 AM 2.6 12.7
10:00 AM 3.8 19.9
10:03 AM 2.9 17.8
10:04 AM 6.0 24.3
10:06 AM 4.2 19.4
10:09 AM 3.1 18.5
10:11 AM 4.0 27.2
10:15 AM 3.1 18.1
10:17 AM 2.4 10.5
10:20 AM 5.5 22.8
10:21 AM 5.8 16.3
10:24 AM 2.9 13.6
10:26 AM 3.3 11.4
10:28 AM 2.4 10.7
10:30 AM 2.4 16.7
10:54 AM 0.9 29.0
11:01 AM 5.8 25.2
11:02 AM 5.3 29.7
11:05 AM 4.0 13.1
11:09 AM 5.1 16.1
11:11 AM 7.3 24.8
Pasadena. MD

Anonymous said...

Mr. Foot I have a question. I just read the 11 update and it said that Hanna was moving North and that it was expected to change to a more Northeastern path in the next 12 to 24 hours. I thought that it was expected to move northeasterly as soon as it crossed over onto land. I also thought it was to be over New England within 24 hours. Does it sound like it is moving slower thatn they expected? If so does this mean more rain?
Thanks,
WVMOMMYOF5

Anonymous said...

with all this rain and then winds on he backside we could have some trees coming down

Anonymous said...

From Davidsonville MD - HEAVY rains for the past 2 hours - my little frog gauge already measures 2.1 inches. A few gusty wind bursts making my tulip poplar trees bend at an odd angle. Power blinked once but did not go out. With the bulk of the storm still tot he south, 6 inches will come easily........stay tuned!
Lisa

Anonymous said...

mr foot do you think this storm is already worse then expected at this point or not as bad.
raining for 2.5 hours strait here in reisterstown

Anonymous said...

I recieved a wind gust of 41.3 mph at 11:26. Pasadena, MD. Listening to the scanner, alot of accidents, powerlines and trees down around Annapolis.

Anonymous said...

Auntie Jado from Locust Point, Md.. Heavy rain and a slight wind switch to the south east. Had to close the south side windows. Will keep you posted.

Anonymous said...

I am heading to Akron OH around 2. Should I change my plans?

Essex, MD

Anonymous said...

Husband just arrived in Stony Creek in Pasadena. Very heavy rain and gusty winds at the moment. It is high tide right now and it's normal.

I'm in Hydes and we get bands of heavy rain and some wind gusts. It's been steady rain though for several hours. Moved the rain gauge @ 10:45 to get a more accurate reading.

Lori and Kyle said...

Just drove from Odenton to Annapolis and back. The wind was around 25mph and steady with occasional heavy downpours. There was a surprising number of cars on the road (I know...I was one of the "idiots"). My power flashed about five minutes ago and rain is puddling in the grass here in Odenton. This track still seems ambiguous to me.

Foot's Forecast said...

Great comments all, thanks for the input and reporting. Good to hear the tide is currently OK near Pasadena. Will check back shortly after lunch.

Heavy rain bands moving through Dundalk now.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Foot or anyone,
Do you think there is any possible way for the Balt. Orioles game to happen tonight at 7:05?

Anonymous said...

when will be the windiest time for bmore county

crazedsnowboarder said...

White Hall, MD about 2 miles north of Hereford High. So far we have only received heavy rains and wind gusts of around 20 mph.

Anonymous said...

some heavy rain blew through. Some major gusts also. lost power twice but it keeps coming back on.
So when is supposed to be the worst? Hanging out at home now but have things to do out.

Hydes

Anonymous said...

Reporting from Dundalk. Just had a heavy rainfall and brisk winds. Our covered porch is leakingn guess we will need to fix the roof. Husband just left to take daughter to work. I will report on road conditions in this area when he returns.
Sharon

Anonymous said...

tide is still coming in down in Pasadena.

Amber said...

There is NOTHING happening in Annapolis at the moment. Was that it?

Anonymous said...

Hubby just returned from his journey through Dundalk. He stated some tree limbs down along North point rd and inverness and minor standing water on side of road. For the last hirty minutes nothing going on in Dundalk. At times it looks like the sun is trying to come out. Are we in the eye or is this the calm before the storm.
Sharon

Anonymous said...

we had a break for about 35 minutes. coming down in sheets now.

Foot's Forecast said...

Meant to check back in earlier, but had some work to do around the house while the little ones were napping.

As I outlined in Friday's post, the worst would be mid morning to late afternoon/sundown. I can see from the radar that the center is over the Chesapeake Bay and much of the squally rain bands have moved up into PA & NJ.

For those from Dundalk to Annapolis, we were in a dry slot between the 2 heaviest bands of rain. I suspect we will get hammered again as the storm continues it's decay while those rain bands spin out. The Hereford Zoners will also get their share of heavy hitting rain and wind if it has not already arrived.

By tomorrow morning, you'll have crystal clear skies and fresh northwest winds..along with probably the first hint of fall in the air.

Foot's Forecast said...

Sorry I may not have answered everyone's questions there...

The Orioles tonight, I would guess postponed due to wet fields and that we might still be under the TS Warning.

The windiest time for Balto County is either now or has already passed. You'll see sustained winds start to decrease now.

I hope the Akron OH commenter carried out their plans, as heading northwest from here conditions will be improving rapidly after 5 PM.

Anonymous said...

Heavy rainfall in dundalk at moment. It is much cooler now. Wind not bad, but rain is coming down on a slant at times then just straight down. since I started this rain seems to be letting up. Mr. Foot is the worst over for us in dundalk and baltimore county?
Sharon

Anonymous said...

That was pretty uneventful!

Anonymous said...

It was uneventful, but you know mother nature does what she wants when she wants. I am grateful that it was not worse. Our economy is in sad shape as it is without Hanna making it worse. I lived and worked as a teacher in Dundalk during Isabel and I am hoping never to see the lost and hopeless look I saw on some of the children I taught again. We have to remember just coz we are doing okay in our water tight bubbles, others in our commuiunities are not as lucky. Sorry for the sermon, but every now and then I need reminder of the same things.

Anonymous said...

sorry I forgot to sign off on the sermon...do I hear an Amen
Sharon from Dundalk

Foot's Forecast said...

Amen Sharon. It sure was eventful for my 2 young children.. enjoying their first tropical system to their houses. My 5 year old's favorite part was jumping in big puddles (during a lull) and then "windsurfing" with her arms here just recently once the rain stopped. She wants me to grab some of the little puffy clouds that are racing by very low. Any ideas on how I should go about doing that. Sure don't want to disappoint a budding storm enthusiast!

terpguy said...

Copied and pasted from the wrong comments list...duh

6 September

1915 local

Total of 3.10" of rain. Doesn't appear that we'll get any more. Still quite windy, but my anemometer is on the fritz...maybe Santa can bring me a new one!

Foot's Forecast said...

Thanks Terp for rounding out the evening! I appreciate everyone's input all during the storm. If you are new to the site, our comments community really gets rolling during winter storms. And this winter may very well make up for the lackluster performance of the previous 2.

Signing off for the night. I may take time off tomorrow to enjoy the nice weather, spend time with my girls and get work done around the house.

As for Ike, while I am concerned about an eventual track into the Gulf, I think that storm will get bungled up over the Cuban mountains more than currently anticipated. We'll revisit that by Monday and see where things are.

crazedsnowboarder said...

we better get some hardcore snow this winter! The last two were more than disappointing. I am definitely looking forward to the enthusiastic forecasting for the snow this year.

terpguy said...

Sunday AM

Larry Cosgrove ( WEATHERAmerica) has Ike curving around the Florida peninsula and coming up just inside the East Coast. The eye eventually passing over Southern Maryland.

Right over my son's college...

Foot's Forecast said...

You have got to be kidding. There's no way, what is he seeing?