Friday, September 5, 2008

NOW WE WAIT AND SEE

Hanna Satellite 9-5-08 IR

From the day-after-day weak satellite presentation and lack of noticeable circulation, to this bowling ball of convection that is about to make landfall in South Carolina... Hanna has certainty demonstrated tenacity. Now we wait to see if the forecasted path holds true, and if she indeed does travel mostly EAST of the Bay and NOT UP the Bay. Not landfalling in Wilmington, North Carolina as many of us thought it would, indicates to me that "frictional effects" are taking place. This also means the downstream track might shift westward, which spells serious trouble for the Mid-Atlantic if that starts to happen.

The concept is simple: Winds blowing onshore from the right front quadrant are usually stronger, whereas winds blowing offshore in the lower left quadrant are weaker. This disparity of wind in opposite sides of the storm can actually drive the entire system closer to the coast, due to the frictional effect of interaction with the land. Charley in 2004 was a great example of this, which is why he made that sudden right turn and hammered Port Charlotte when many (including me at the time) thought it was headed for Tampa.

So I retire for the evening hoping that you've completed your preparations, and that we will all act in a safe and appropriate manner during the storm. Please post your observations and wind speeds if you know or can accurately tell (say by using the Beaufort Scale!). Tomorrow I may post the chat feature just during the main storm period from mid morning to sunset. I'm not staying up for the 11PM advisory, but would not be surprised to hear she went to hurricane status just as landfall occured.

8 comments:

Foot's Forecast said...

Remember to include your location when posting an observation.

Let the games begin!

Anonymous said...

i just saw weather .com and it says that the power outage chane for maryland is minimal why is that. is it possible that this storm could get extra moisture and winds from the bay like the cliiper did this past winter. I still think that this storm will leave lots without power. I cant wait till tomorow!!!!!!! ike will causeserious problems later this week. Watch out gulf coast.

Anonymous said...

sorry reistertown

Foot's Forecast said...

Good morning all, looking at the radar, it seems the center is going to track farther west and more UP the Bay than east of it.

Anyone else seeing this?

Anonymous said...

It is almost 7 am here in Elkridge (Howard County) and we have NO rain, although it is so muggy outside that all the windows in my house are foggy. WBAL also had very little coverage (for the past 20 minutes) on the storm.

Mr. Brisko said...

Cloudy here with .52" overnight. Not sure what to expect today.

crazedsnowboarder said...
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crazedsnowboarder said...
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