Monday, September 22, 2008

WAS ISABEL THE REHEARSAL?

Isabel's Landfall 9-18-03

Isabel's landfall along North Carolina coast on September 18, 2003

Although this past week marked the 5 year anniversary of Isabel and it's destructive impact on the Chesapeake Bay region, that storm will continue to serve it's main role: reminding us and preparing us for the "real one" which I believe has yet to arrive. The pattern looming before us in the week and month ahead pose a larger question I seek to resolve each year: Is this the year of a "Hazel-like" pattern? The atmosphere has already left behind clues to it's later intentions...Hanna's recurvature through the Mid-Atlantic, Ike and Gustav both following relatively similar tracks, and now the potential for a coastal crawler this weekend.

For those of you receiving this update via the Feedblitz email service, please know so in the procedure I follow developing situations is to first post an initial update, and then add graphics and supporting details throughout the week.

Kyle GFDL projection 1

My line of thinking for this next tropical system: No Escape. The sprawling High pressure ridge parking over the coastal Northwest Atlantic I believe will lock in a landfall between the Delmarva Peninsula and New England. Depending on the speed, this may occur Friday night or Saturday morning. Once Kyle is officially named, there will be little time let before watches and warnings are issued if the GFDL model projection above is to be believed. (Thanks to alert reader Mr. B for reminding me of the link). As you can see from the model map to the right, two of the most reliable models continue to advertise a northwest tracking system approaching the Chesapeake Bay from the southeast. Combine that with the increased pressure gradient that will develop and tropical or not, we will have ourselves quite the gale along Mid-Atlantic from Friday through Sunday. Should the GFDL scenario play out, this storm has huge implications for significant and prolonged surge, major tidal flooding, beach erosion. I know some of you may feel this feels like more crying for the wolf that was not Hanna, but this track is far more dangerous and warrants early notification and constant monitoring by all coastal interests.

25 comments:

Mr. Brisko said...

12Z CMC today was just crazy. I could only hope for a system like that to chase.

terpguy said...

FYI-

For those of you who don't have this bookmarked:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200893_model.html

If you're reading this...you probably won't be what many people are:

complacent

I'm sure Mr. F will agree- when it comes to major life-threatening storms, there's no such thing as crying wolf...

Mr. Brisko said...

Looks like another crap shoot. Grr.

Foot's Forecast said...

Ironic that this Saturday is I believe the anniversary of Gloria's Long Island landfall.

We shall see. One thing is for sure, this pile of moisture and convection has to go somewhere. It is caught under the high and with the trough approaching from the midwest, whatever system.. tropical or not develops is going to have a tough time escaping out to sea.

Julee said...

WHAT? WHAT?? WHAT???????

I'm selling my jewelry in a crafts show on Sunday in Relay, MD ... aren't I?
I mean this is a BIG celebratory day in Relay so it's going to be sunny and 75 ... isn't it? PLEEEEEEEEEEASE!!!!!!
At 6 this morning Marty Bass said showers on Thursday and Friday.

Mr. Foot? Terpy?

PasadenaMatt said...

Mr. Foot,
What do you think the affects will be on Maryland? Thanks. Matt Pasadena.

terpguy said...

At 6 this morning Marty Bass said showers on Thursday and Friday.

C'mon Julee...you know better than that...

Julee said...

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! For ONCE I want him to be right!
I've been making bracelets and earrings for four weeks for this extravaganza on Sunday!
No rain ... no storm ... please!

Unless YOU want to buy all of this jewelry, Terpy!

terpguy said...

Dear Julee,

Sorry:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-5.shtml

Love,
Terpguy

ps- thanks anyway...but I don't do bling...

Foot's Forecast said...

Well we can probably call off the dogs now, the system has gotten bungled up over Hispanola (when has that happened this year?) and no doubt they would have preferred it to leave quickly as was originally anticipated. Looks like the main effect on MD will be wind from the strong pressure gradient.

And just for Julee, maybe just maybe all the rain will be gone by Sunday.. but lots of northwest wind behind it for sure. Might want to include free gorilla glue with the earrings to help your customers keep them attached.

terpguy said...

Mr. F- agreed, Julee might just catch a break by Sunday.

But now we have 94L winding up off of the Carolinas. Looks like a high probability for some much needed precip for our area tomorrow.

Stay tuned.

terpguy said...

FYI-

Latest image of 94L:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

Later...

Julee said...

Ohhhhhhhhhhhh thank you boys!
I feel MUCH better!

Yes, that Gorilla Glue should look fetching when it foams up all orange and brown on their earlobes! Thanks for the suggestion!

And thanks for your support... looking forward to the Foot Future Flake Forecast.

terpguy said...

1700 local-

Kyle is born...

Julee...you might need an umbrella...

Julee said...

For a moment I thought you had a new grandson ... in fact I wish it WERE a new grandson instead of what it IS.

Thanks for the warning T.
I'm going check to see if there will be a postponement in my future.

If not, do you wear pierced or clip earrings?

Mr. Brisko said...

This is another epic fail.

Maybe a tropical system...no

Well it will still be very windy and rainy...no

well some good rain...no

ummm what?....yes!

terpguy said...

For a moment I thought you had a new grandson ...

Wow!

Julee, I'd like to live long enough to see a grandchild, but I'm willing to wait, as my son is a brand-new freshman in college! (I started really late!)

I'm going to have my own weather baggage Saturday...I working the Finish Line at the Bull Run up near your place of employ.

Good luck with your jewelry sale...

Anonymous said...

Hurricane Kyle... and two more disturbances in the Atlantic... this season ends in NOV? right!?

Julee said...

WOW! Was anyone out and about today(Saturday)?
I went to a rubber stamp show in Westminster, where, at 11 a.m., the sun was shining. BUT on the ride back at 3 ... TOTAL road flooding. Total SCARY road flooding. Went past Cal Ripken's house and the Sagamore Farm horse pastures across the street from him were LAKES! The roads all through Hunt Valley were filled with standing water and the rushing waters at the sides of the roads had WAVES!
A VERY Scary ride. Hope everyone is home and dry.

Anonymous said...

hmm Julee.. sounds more like the Eastern Shore huh! It rained pretty hard... they had to put off the Bull Run... could have made it a swim!

terpguy said...

... they had to put off the Bull Run...

I drove 20 miles to work the Finish Line there, and as I was getting out of my car, they made the call.

There was thunder around. I believe that this was only the second time the Run was postponed.....the first was Isabel.

terpguy said...

Sunday-

Rain gauge had 2.13' from yesterday.

Expecting some more shortly.

PasadenaMatt said...

Mr. Foot. I came across the website through a search. I was wondering do you publish a winter weather forecast? I was wondering, what do you think this winter will be like? Thanks.

Foot's Forecast said...

Sorry everyone for the long silence, busy with fall plantings, greenhouse work and Chesapeake Bay Foundation projects.

Thanks pasadenamatt for the question, and here's what I've thinking about the winter (first half).. it's all about what October does. Our mid month warmup may have sealed the deal for an early start to winter.. if so we may be looking at a region-wide snow day or two before Christmas, similar to Dec 2002. In addition, I believe north of the PA-MD line you will see snow ON THE GROUND by Thanksgiving, and south of the PA-MD line, there will be a snow-fall event but not a snow-accumulation event before we roast the Turkey.

January is too tough to call yet, as that depends on what November does in my opinion. If Nov is much colder than normal, then January may end up mostly mild with a snap back to cold in Feb.

More on this after the Halloween, daylight savings and the election.

Mr. Brisko said...

We just missed this bad boy. GRR NE PA got dumped on.