SYNOPSIS: THU JAN 29 - 7:15 AM. Upper level and climate indicators are pointing towards a very significant to near-historic event for the East Coast in the Monday - Wednesday period next week. A current view of NOAA's GFS (Global Forecast System) projection for 8PM Monday night shows a deepening surface low moving generally north to northeast just along the coast. An interesting trend that's developed in the most recent set of runs on this particular model clearly shows a surface high of increasing strength, and a slight eastward drift in the low track. There is still considerable time in front of this storm and multiple changes are in the offing. You will know for sure that serious concern is building if your local NWS office posts a Hazardous Weather Outlook Friday or Saturday.
This system, first named here as the "Groundhog Storm," was done simply because
Punxsutawney Phil's big day is Monday 2/2. By then, according to HPC and others, we might have a "full-latitude trough" across the Eastern US, which is an extremely huge deal because it only happens once every couple winters. When the atmospheric ingredients are right, it can spawn a storm for the record books, such as February 1978, The March 1993 Superstorm, or the Blizzard of January 1996 with little prior warning. It's unoffically called "Bombogenesis" and occurs when a historic, crippling storm seems to explode out of nowhere within 24-36 hours. The NWS Climate Prediction Center, as well as NWS forecast offices, and local emergency management are closely tracking this potential because they know it can happen so quickly and allow little time for preparation.That said, now look at what the HPC said on Wed 1/28, (current discussion here): Some text removed for clarity and space.
"JUST AFTER GROUNDHOG DAY...THE VIGOROUS 00Z/28 GFS COASTAL CYCLOGNESIS LATE MON INTO WED IS POSSIBLE AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT....THOUGH WE ARE NOT PRESENTLY BOMBING OUT THIS SYSTEM. A DEEP UPPER CYCLONE COULD BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF AS FAR SOUTH AS TENNESSEE OR NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE COULD MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THE PIEDMONT...EASTERN SEABOARD...OR THROUGH WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH USUAL WINTER WEATHER CONSEQUENCES. WE HAVE NOT SEEN THIS TYPE OF CYCLONE TRACK TOO OFTEN THE PAST COUPLE WINTERS."HPC most current ideas as of 3:10 AM Thursday are: "IN THE EAST...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DEEPER WITH A CYCLONE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTOEASTERN CANADA...SO THE FORECASTED PRESSURES FOLLOW SUIT. THE COMPROMISE CHOSEN TAKES THE SYSTEM UP THE FALL LINE...A SPRING-LIKE TRACK. THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE TIGHTENED UP AND SHIFTEDLEFT SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND AGREE A TRACK UP INTERSTATE 95. THEIR CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THEFORECAST TO ONE WHICH IS ABOVE AVERAGE. IF THIS FORECAST VERIFIES...THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WOULD BE ANTICIPATEDACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES."Now consider this section from the CPC's bi-weekly hazards assessment report:
"LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG OR JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR THE EASTERN CONUS BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DEPICT SPECIFIC HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. (then, later in text:) THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OT THE EAST."
POST STORM REPORT: I will be adding details in this section.
ABOUT THIS SITE AND THE AUTHOR: Since some of you have recently learned of the site, I figured it would be helpful if you knew what this is all about, and some background on who is the guy behind it. That discussion will be added here.
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