Saturday, January 31, 2009


OPENING STATEMENT: Despite changes in computer model projections, the forecast on this site will remain intact until quantifiable upper level data is presented and analyzed. This is not an unwillingness to accept defeat (or the classic male weakness.. the occasional inability to ask for directions). My approach is rooted in sound observation of actual information, because computer models in of themselves do not represent actual data, but a representation of expected FUTURE data. Until then, I will continue doing what I suspect many other forecasters are not doing, and that is tracking specific shortwaves in the upper level flow. It is time to watch what THEY do, not what they "say." The die is cast, we shall see who is left standing at the end. If I'm wrong, you'll be the first to know.

Updates over the weeked will focus on gathering and presenting data to support or refute the following three hypotheses: (1) A full-on coastal snowstorm assault (wide left); (2) an I-95 grazer that delivers some snow (just right); or (3) a sadly departing fish storm (wide right).

IMPACT SYNOPSIS: SAT JAN 31 - 7:15 PM. (No change from previous forecast) It remains likely the eastern Mid-Atlantic will be impacted by Tuesday's storm in the form of rain Monday mixing with and changing to snow, then continuing overnight as snow before ending Wednesday morning. The areas most likely to receive snow extend from Carroll County, MD south to Washington, DC and east to Del-Mar-Va, including the Baltimore Metro region. This scenario would interrupt Tuesday school and commuter schedules, and depending on snow amounts, Wednesday as well. By Tuesday night, sub-freezing temperatures and windy conditions follow the storm, and remain into Friday. Re-freezing of standing water, untreated roads and sidewalks will occur overnight into Wed.

FOR TEACHERS: As time permits this weekend, I will be adding features to the lesson plan case study. Use that hyperlink and go directly to the page there instead of scrolling down. In honor of my esteemed elementary and middle school colleagues, I shall include the VSC's and some details on how to incorporate this into lessons for grades 2-8. It is not that hard and would require some hands-on visuals. Please note this lesson can be utilized regardless of this storm's outcome, as the factors that will generate future storms are always there.

WEATHER SYNOPSIS: Details and analysis to be added in this section. Like we have done before, until I can post my report, I encourage you to follow the indicators yourself to see if you can outwit the computer models. One good place to start is the the worldwide surface loop of the past 14 days. I know that is a terrifying prospect to consider examining, but it is grahical data that's NOT a computer "projection." From this you might be able to detect the trend the atmosphere is trying to create for next week. I will be reviewing the current and projected 500 mb Ocean charts. This is where I think a hidden clue for next Tuesday's storm track may be located. HPC is also looking to pinpoint clues, evidenced in their discussion.

In reality, I realized looking at this loop, that it does all come back to "predict the High and you predict the storm." The piece of evidence we need to uncover is where does the Atlantic High setup so as to influence how far EAST the storm will track? The phrase behind this is an old forecasting adage from a Penn State meteorology professor who's name escapes me know. Though I was not one of his students, we used that technique at the Penn State Weather Center back in the days of printing out the giant wall fax maps at 4:30 AM, and having to get a full analysis done by 5:15 in order to report on local radio stations. Talk about stress on a Monday morning!

This evening I will post a further explanation of the graphic above. Keep in mind accurate research requires great investment of time in between the many other responsibilities I must fulfill at home! ;-) Until then you are welcome to post your questions in the comments.

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