Thursday, January 29, 2009

PREVIOUS UPDATE: THU JAN 29 - 10:45 PM. (Fri 1/30 Note: I cleaned up appearance of this section and moved it below the current post to use as reference)

1. Something does not seem right about a track straight up into the Appalachians. The NAO is barely neutral and projected to start heading negative again. I'm not comfortable with the idea that many NWS offices (except for DC/Baltimore) and the HPC offices are already rolling out the galoshes for this storm. It's not because I am wishcasting a blizzard.

2. I'm wondering if we're seeing the 2009 equivalent of the March 2001 superbomb that wasn't. In that storm, there was widespread agreement across the country this would be the new Storm of the Century, and 24-36" + were to fall across the I-95 cities. It went way east and Philadelphia received one slushy inch. Biggest bust in modern forecasting history. Surely technology has advanced to the point something like that can't repeat...even in the other direction?

3. The GFS continues to show a stronger surface High for Mon-Tue coming out of the Northern plains, it has gone from a 1024 mb to now 1034 mb.

4. Some meteorologists and amateur weather watchers posting on Eastern US Wx that have been watching all this much more closely also contend that all is not right with the Apps track. They point to evidence of a positive PNA ridge developing in the west.

5. There are some interesting signs in the "jet streak" flow for Monday that indicate a jet max way up at 300 mb could provide an extra pull to the east of energy developing at 500, 700, 850 as it crosses Fla/Ga. I'll be referencing this author and his ideas.

6. Sterling is also not jumping in with both feet, and holding back on an all rain solution.

Final word for now, this Kahuna will provide all of us with a chance to relive the March 1993 storm in some ways. Regardless of how the storm plays out, "that's gonna be one unhappy groundhog" * when it's all over. Until then, remember that the end is not yet written.

* attributed to commenter 'Essex Dance Mom' 1-29-09

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