Friday, January 23, 2009


UPDATE: FRI JAN 23 - 1:15 PM. Forecasters at AccuWeather, the HPC and local NWS offices are now publicly recognize next week's winter storm potential for the Eastern US. I know it has been a complicated journey to this point, but it all comes down to physics. Many other weather watchers were skeptical of computer model projections insisting on a cutoff upper level low holding back off the California coast at the same time downstream flow is expected to so progressive and confluent. Given that a 500 millibar trough in the mid-Pacific was likely to rotate toward the US this weekend, this breaks down the Pacific ridge, and sends pieces of upper level energy in the form of "short-waves" out into the southern plains. After a couple days, those short-waves run into an encroaching dome of High pressure parking over the Northeast, and voila! Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm.

If you have the time to check, you can see this scenario depicted in the European loop, and I'll post a GFS comparison here shortly. But, I am not claiming victory or "see I told you so," rather just commenting on how this is an example how monitoring the atmosphere's "fluid dynamics" and sensing the trends can enable just about anyone with a computer the ability to "beat the models." Now we wait and see if what I have outlined comes true. If not, I'll be the first to admit why. P.S. Wouldn't George Tenet be proud of my claim? After all, it is backed with sound data and analysis, right?

UPDATE: FRI JAN 23 - 8:30 AM. This morning's projection by the GFS for 1AM Wed 1/28 shows a close-to-perfect setup for at least 6 hours of wintry precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic. Granted this is ONE computer model run of a suite that prints out 4 times a day, and is not the average of all runs together. The point is, computer models may be starting to recognize the physics pattern I and many other weather watchers have outlined since early this week. If the upper level energy is ejected out of the southwest earlier than later, the solution above turns into a slam dunk snow and sleet storm for most of Maryland, and makes Wednesday the day of greatest risk to the school schedule.

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