Sunday, March 1, 2009



THE MARCH 2009 BIG KAHUNA #1
SUMMARY OF FORECAST RESULTS: MON MAR 2 - 1:45 PM.
My original statement issued at 11:15 PM Sunday March 2 centered on these ideas:
(1) Doubt that a 12" snowfall will be widespread, and a rarity versus commonplace.
(2) By sunrise Monday 3/2: initial 6" along Maryland I-95 corridor, 5 or less in Carroll and Frederick Counties
(3) Banding adds another 1-2", a final at BWI airport and our Fallston reporting station of 8".
(4) Some Local amounts in Annapolis, Dundalk, Aberdeen could approach 10" but on grassy areas, with 5" on roads.
(5) Saturday 2/28 Preliminary Call was 6" on grassy areas and 3" on untreated secondaries/sidewalks. (should have stayed closer to that one!)
STORM GRADE ANALYSIS: % DEVIATION OF ACTUAL FROM PREDICTED: If all percentages are added to reach a total culmulative number and divided by the total number of forecast points (9), we reach this concluding data: As of 2:15 PM 3/2 there are 414.33 storm grade points out of a possible 900: 414/900 = 46% E. Taking a page from my English colleagues, it looks like I get an E for mechanics and an A for effort. Does that fairly quantify an overall C for the event? I'm not sure the powderhound statisticians among us would buy that interpretation! Data below:
MARYLAND
Towson: 2.5 / 6 = 41% E. Fallston: 4.5 / 8 = 56% E. Westminster 4.0 / 5.0 = 80% B. Aberdeen: No data yet. Dundalk: 5.25 / 8 = 65% D. BWI Airport: 5.1 / 8 = 64% D. Annapolis: 5.8 / 8 = 72% C.
PENNSYLVANIA
Southern York County: 6.0 / 9 = 66% D. Philly suburbs: Average of 5.5 / 9 = 61% D.
WEST VIRGINIA
Martinsburg: .01 / 3 = .33% E----- (total bust)
PREVIOUS SUMMARY: MON MAR 2 - 8:00 AM. Congratulations on what looks to be a near-clean sweep of not only schools throughout the metro areas of Philly, Baltimore and DC, but many county government offices and courts, colleges/universities and even some federal institutions, including Fort Meade, the Naval Academy and a 2-hour delay for the DC Federal government workforce.

The heavy snow that redeveloped across the Mid-Atlantic from mid morning to noon was due in part to the "banding" discussed earlier as the coastal low pulls away, enhanced by the passing of the closed 500 mb upper level low directly above us. This last round of snow should being tapering by 12 noon in Baltimore, but continue into the mid-afternoon across eastern PA. The enhanced fluff factor of this snow energized by the upper low may push totals to near the forecasted amounts, but some of those numbers will fall short. At least there's no bag in the forecast for me. Monitor the latest NWS snowfall reports for the metro regions of Baltimore/DC and Philadelphia (which includes northern DelMarVa).

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