Humidity & Flu: A connection?

THU 7 MAY - 10:00 AM. Loyal and new readers alike have been waiting patiently for a return to normalcy on this site. I have heard your pleas! To start the transition, I present this "bridge" topic to further our understanding of the synergistic relationships between climate and human health. A February 2009 report to the National Academy of Sciences raised intriquing theories about the apparent increased ability of viruses to survive and transmit among humans in cold and dry conditions versus that which is warm and wet. Talk about relevant weather and relationships to climate. Adding influenza to this mix creates an inter-disciplinary concept so big it's going to take some time to wrap my head around it! A direct quote from the article:

"It seems that the influenza virus' ability to survive and be transmitted person-to-person is greatly affected by how dry or wet the air is," says Jeffrey Shaman, Ph.D., an atmospheric scientist at Oregon State University in Corvallis, who specializes in ties between climate and disease transmission, and a co-author of the new study.

This introduces a whole new world of research possibilities that are just fresh out of the gate. I encourage any of you or your students to investigate, including:

(1) Cross-referencing spread of the H1N1 outbreak with April daily humidity data in Mexico, New York, Texas and California: what patterns or indications might this reveal?

(2) Comparing that data to climate norms: Was it more or less humid than normal at onset? Could this have influenced the March-to-April outbreak phase in Mexico?

(3) Real-time tracking of current humidity and temperature data as compared to spread of the virus in the Maryland or the eastern U.S. Has our recent washout slowed progress of the virus?

(4) Historical analysis of temp/humidity data in the fall of 1918: Did this influence velocity of the lethal second wave that swept the globe in two months (when trans-Atlantic travel alone took a week or more?) For a glimpse at early research on this very idea, review a 1923 report by the Canadian Medical Association Journal. Now that's what I call back in the day.

The organizing question going forward would be: Could weather data be used to predict how a reassorted virus might spread in a second wave this fall? Things that make you go hmmm....