Wednesday, August 26, 2009

ANOTHER WAVY WEEKEND

8:00 am Friday, 8-28-09. Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, the Coastal Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for the second time in a 10-day period will face effects from a tropical cyclone. The primary impacts will be another frustrating weekend for beach-goers, boaters and lifeguards alike as Danny's passage will produce high surf conditions and dangerous rip currents. Luckily for coastal residents, this will not resemble the period of late August to early September in 1999, when Hurricane Floyd delivered 12 or more inches of rain on areas still saturated by Hurricane Dennis the week before. Residents of North Carolina can never forget the horrific aftermath of Floyd, with catastrophic flooding that destroyed millions of cattle and ruined thousands of square miles of agricultural land. While Danny is not likely to patch that kind of punch, it is worth noting from a climatological perspective two back-to-back tropical systems taking a similar path along the East Coast. With yet another area of disturbed weather in that critical "Cape Verde" region of coastal Africa, is Mother Nature hinting that Danny and Bill were sent just to lay the red carpet for... Erika?

WHAT WILL DANNY DO? By examining the historical tracking map (paths of previous August tropical storms), and compare that to the current computer model projected paths for Danny as of 7:00 AM Wed, there is comfort in the trends. Both historical data and model output suggest Danny DOES NOT make landfall along the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast unlike Floyd or Isabel (as shown by the StormPulse site). However, it goes without saying that lifeguards, boaters and beach-goers alike face . NOAA reconnaissance aircraft will continue to investigate the storm several times a day, and if the storm reaches Hurricane strength, you'll be among the first to know by monitoring the "Vortex Data Message" on the NHC site.

ON POST FREQUENCY For my colleagues in education, it comes as no surprise that with our return to school in advance of the students, the frequency of posts will be diminished for a time. To bridge the gap and maintain meaningful content, I have a report in development that discusses quantitative data of trends heading into the winter pattern. This post will likely have to wait until Danny has moved on, but in the draft version right now are four key climate indicators which will form the basis of my prediction for the winter storm season.

The four indicators:
(1) Impact of the Solar Minimum on atmospheric temperatures;
(2) Current state of El Nino and effect on North America this winter;
(3) Sea surface temperature anomalies in Gulf of Mexico, western Atlantic and central Pacific;
(4) Evidence of a "negative trend' for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) for fall and early winter.

A majority of this report is written, and it will be presented as soon as time and school preparations permit, but not before the weekend. Until then, we have something new to talk about, so onward with the discussion topics, such as "What will Danny do?" or "Do you remember Floyd?" or "Will this affect the start of school?"

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