Saturday, December 26, 2009

Big Kahuna Forecast: 1st & 10

4:30 PM SUNDAY 12-27  This is gametime update to let you know that our weekly storm analysis is in development, and will be posted after the games are over. As in past storm preparation research, we post an outline and synopsis of ideas, then add details and supporting links. 

What is the basic thinking for this storm? More snow than rain, arriving in the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday and continuing into Friday or longer. As for Times Square ratings, this could be Ryan Secrest's moment. For quick sense of what is brewing, the Baltimore/Washington NWS office has a Hazardous Weather Outlook posted. The HPC is spot on in their discussions, and Hazard Assessments. Using BWI airport as an example, the GFS computer model is vacillating between "Day After Tomorrow" storm and flurries. Being that we're "inside five days" before the storm, various projections such as 3.0" of liquid for New York City probably have have emergency managers already taking notes.

Computer trends and climate indicators are being co-analyzed. When we know more, you'll know - and you can check our facebook page for a heads up during the day. The previous post follows:

"We're riding in a wonderland of snow..."
- lyrics from the classic holiday orchestral piece Sleigh Ride,
first recorded in 1949 by Arthur Fiedler and the Boston Pops.

6:00 AM FRIDAY, DECEMBER 26   Though today's rain will remove most of the snow we didn't, the Winter Stormcast Team expects that you will be surrounded by a wintry fairyland again in short order. The current pattern over North America, identified by our student climate collaborative as -NAO, -AO, +PNA* may yield one or two more significant winter storms by January 6. That would be just in time for Ephihany's Arrival of the Magi (you know...when the Wise Men came to Bethlehem). Powderhounds who remember great storms of the 1950's and 60's can attest to non-stop multi-year sleigh rides through wonderlands of snows.
(cue for readers: insert memorable snow tale here.)
* "alignment" of these three atmospheric indicators often precedes east coast snowstorms.

Many thanks go out to Winterman for keeping a close eye on the Christmas Day event, as noted in the official facebook page. Mr. Foot, Mr. B and Snowlover are immersed in activites with their families. Stormcaster PasadenaMatt and Team advisor Mr. Andy of Southern York County, PA are already monitoring NWS reports and atmospheric signals for the next event. They have good company, even the 6- to 10-day outlook by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center suggests conditions will be ripe for snow in the Dec 31 - Jan 4 period. The Global Forecast System is one of several models indicating sleighs in the Northeast may stop by a woods on a snowy evening as we ring in the New Year.

Those with travel or party plans for 2010 weekend celebrations are encouraged to check in daily for latest developments. To remain appropriate in our use of scientific data, we won't release a preliminary timeline until the event is "inside 5 days." Until then, rest awhile with your cup of mint holiday tea and permit those bones a chance to regroup, they'll be pressed back into service before long.

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