Wednesday, December 8, 2010


Bringing innovation to the
forecasting of weather & climate

12:00 PM December 8, 2010 For those who came to rely on our detailed forecasts for the Baltimore-Washington area and Mid-Atlantic region, we invite you to join us at our expanding and fresh new website at the traditional address you've known for years:

In Fall 2010, a comprehensive strategic planning process was launched to re-organize our site so the local forecast teams which have grown to 11 states in the Eastern U.S. would have an equal voice to be "the face of the place" for weather in their region. The re-knowned Central Maryland Forecast team many of you came to know and follow, remains a core part of what we do. However, our team has been growing to the point that we realized the need to establish a site infrastructure that permits multiple student forecast teams operate independently under one roof.

In keeping with our mission to provide students with career-building professional skills, our new site was designed by a multi-state Web Team of college and high school students. Major props go to IT Director/Forecaster Hunter Outten in Roaring Spring, PA for creating the template, and Projects Administrator/Forecaster Andrew Fleck for creating much of the content. They have been regularly collaborating with other members of our Web Team which include students from Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Maryland. I hope you'll recognize these important improvements as evidence of our mission to have student "bring innovation to the forecasting of weather & climate."

Please note these hard-working students are also continuing to implement the goals and objectives of our 2011 Website Strategic Plan, so improvements are being added daily. If there is a new feature or approach you'd like for us to try, drop a note in the comments section on the new site. You can also contact Hunter or Andrew directly by sending a message to Providing you, our loyal readership, with clean and efficient access to the weather content you've come to rely on is central to the mission outlined in the Strategic Plan. If you are concerned that we are losing touch with the local perspective, we understand but take a moment to click through the new site before you render judgment!

Thanks everyone for your patience as we build this website process forward in advance of what looks like a very challenging winter ahead. For those who would be understandably a bit irked that we didn't tell you sooner, please accept our apologies and hope the new site will account for your valid concerns. We look forward to seeing you all over there!

Best regards,
Mr. Foot and the 2010-2011 Eastern U.S. Forecast Team

Saturday, October 30, 2010

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Verification of 2010 Hurricane Forecast
Forecast issued May 28, 2010 - Baltimore, Maryland | TROPICAL ZONE | FACEBOOK
Tropical Team Contributors: Ryan Krimm, Aaron Salter, Daniel Ross, Rich Foot

5:45 pm 11.30.2010 Prior to start of the 2010 Hurricane Season, our Tropical Team predicted for the Atlantic Basin a total of 19 named tropical systems (NTS), 10 of which would become hurricanes, and 5 would be major hurricanes. As of November 30, 2010, observed results show exactly 19 named tropical systems, twelve of which have become hurricanes, and five systems reached to Category 3 major hurricane status with winds at or above 111 mph.

Our team also delineated the hurricane forecast month-by-month, with the original graphic in the section below. Note that the official Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season continues to November 30 each year. If additional systems develop, will revise our grading scheme with final results. Preliminary verification for the baseline predicted tropical cyclone events shows these results, in a % deviation/academic grading format as follows. The screen shown here was part of a TV news spot featuring the Maryland Forecast Team by CBS Channel 13 WJZ in Baltimore, MD on July 1, 2010.

Named Tropical Systems: Predicted/Observed- 19/19; 100% of predicted
Hurricanes: Predicted/Observed: 10/12; 120% of predicted
Major Hurricanes: Predicted/Observed: 5/5, 100% of predicted

1. Report published: May 28, 2010
Our original projections as shown below was developed by Lead Forecaster Ryan Krimm, Ryan is a Junior at Sparrows Point High School in Edgemere, Maryland. Contributing forecasters included Aaron Salter, a junior in Environmental Studies at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County; Daniel Ross, a senior in Meteorology at Georgia Polytechnic Institute in Atlanta, GA; and Mr. Foot - Lead Advisor, Baltimore, MD

2. Public presentation of forecast: June 4, 2010
Four members of our team presented this forecast to the June 2010 Conference of the Maryland Emergency Management Agency in Ocean City, Maryland. The presenters included Ryan Krimm, Aaron Salter, Evan Uebel and Mr. Foot. (see June 4 in registration packet). The invitation was extended by Ms. Teresa Chapman of the Anne Arundel County Office of Emergency Management.

3. Public release of forecast via news media: July 1, 2010
The Baltimore County Office of Homeland Security invited our student "Tropical Team" to develop a realistic scenario of a slow-moving Category 1/2 hurricane making landfall in the southern Mid-Atlantic, similar to the path of Hurricane Isabel in September 2003. This presentation on "Hurricane Omega" was the centerpiece of a tabletop exercise conducted by the county's Emergency Operations Center in Towson, MD on July 1, 2010 and led by Lt. Mark Demski, Deputy Director and Emergency Specialist Jay Ringgold.

Baltimore County Executive Jim Smith held a press conference following the exercise, publicly praising the student team members for their valuable participation in the safety exercise in support of improved preparation for a hurricane emergency. CBS Channel 13 WJZ in Baltimore featured the students' accomplishments in a short segment, shown on the 5:00 pm and 6:00 pm local news. The article was developed by Reporter Mike Schuh and titled: "Amateur Forecasters Create Hurricane Exercise."

On July 6, 2010, The Carroll Community Times also featured the tabletop exercise and the students in an article by Reporter Susan Ingram, titled: "Be prepared for hurricane season...simulation designed by students."  It is interesting to note that on September 2, 2010 - Hurricane Earl followed an eerily similar intensity and track as simulated in the July "Omega" exercise. For that storm, County Executive Jim Smith (featured below) returned to the Emergency Operations Center for a briefing on the event. In comparing
the simulation to actual events, a second aspect of the July 1 tabletop exercise (a slow-moving tropical system delivering up to 12 inches of rain) also met with reality on September 30. In effect, the "simulations" of both a slow-moving and a heavy rain-producing tropical system ended up impacting Baltimore County in just 3 months following the exercise.


1. Occurence Much above normal tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin.
The Atlantic basin seasonal average is 10-15 tropical cyclones*, thus the 2010 observed cyclone data is between 113 %- 170% of normal as of October 31, 2010.
NOAA/NHC Tropical Cyclone Climatology
Pew Center on Global Climate Change
*The climatological average from 1850-1990 is 10 named tropical cyclones, the 1998-2007 average was 15 named tropical cyclones. Thus we presented a range of 10-15.

2. Intensity Five major hurricanes, two or more make a U.S. landfall.
Five major hurricanes developed in 2010*, none made U.S. landfall.
*As of 10-31-2010

3. Risk regions Notable landfalls are projected for:
 Northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico from Louisiana to western Florida coast;
 Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic at risk for a direct landfall or secondary effects.
While Florida to Louisiana did not experience significant landfalling systems, the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic did observe considerable secondary effects from Hurricanes Danielle, Earl, Igor and historical rainfall from the remnants of Extra-Tropical Storm Nicole.

4. Frequency Periods of high activity in July, from mid-August through September
 June 2010: 1 named system which became a hurricane;
  July 2010: 1 named system which became a tropical storm; 0 hurricanes;
  August 2010: 4 named systems = 2 tropical storms, 2 major hurricanes;
  September 2010: 8 named systems = 3 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, 3 major;
  October 2010: 4 named systems, all of which became hurricanes.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

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Your Headquarters for Foot's Forecast: Mid-Atlantic

4:30 pm Sunday 10.17.2010  This is the headquarters for your daily "lead story" overview of reports from all our forecast zones across the Mid-Atlantic. We will be posting the updates from our multi-state teams, including coveted Central Maryland, to persistent Central Pennsylvania, to the ever-consistent Capital Region of DC & Southern Maryland. Please check back for specific details and updates in this section to be posted this evening. This is part of our long-term coordinated strategy to provide all our readers with rapid access to our latest reporting region-by-region in a simplified format.
(Forecaster Foot - Dundalk, MD)

Thursday, August 26, 2010

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Northeast Pennsylvania
A new zone that covers the weather in the Eastern/Northeast PA area.
Coverage Included In: The Lehigh Valley, Poconos, Scranton, and Williamsport
Forecasters: Andrew Fleck (Northampton CC) & Hunter Outten

November Is Here, And Winter Is Near

"It's beginning that time folks, the time where leaves are ending their fall, cold nights are creeping into the day, the time where rain falls as snow and white becomes the seasonal color until thaw."

This years winter is going to be different from last years as patterns have swapped from El-Nino to La-Nina.  What does this mean?  Well a general El-Nino winter is one like last year, a lot of snow and a longer winter.  A La-Nina winter can be milder, with still some snow, but the predominant precipitation being ice, the winter however can change from cold to warm within a heart-beat.  

Pattern From 11.1.201-11.7.2010
Since this years pattern has gone from El-Nino to La-Nina we are expecting that the most cold and wintry conditions begin early, meaning November, December and the first half of January.  That can already be felt as some areas in the zone saw some flurries falling on Halloween.  

So now, where do we go from here?  Well things are going to progress colder and stormier throughout this upcoming month.  We can expect that this month temperatures are going to begin with high's ranging in the low 50's and high 40's, low's should keep in the 20's and 30's.  As November takes it's end half temperatures are going to get even colder, high's only in the 40's and low's strictly in the 20's of course the more South 30's.  There should be only some snow showers affecting any area for the first half, but by the second half of November especially into December high snow chances are going to increase.  That's right folks I said the second half as in late November, be sure to stay tuned.  (Forecaster Fleck)    

    Monday, August 23, 2010

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    Our team featured in the media

    7 years of spot-on weather 
    Since January 2004, has been providing locally relevant weather forecasts and incident management services to an expanding national readership. With 40 members in 13 states, we are the largest student/professional forecasting consortium in the United States today. Our site received 1 million hits in February 2011 and averages 10,000 visits daily from readers in all 50 states. During the January 25-26, 2011 Mid-Atlantic "snow monsoon" the site received 140,000 hits from across North America. Our facebook forecast posts reach nearly 60,000 daily readers in seven metro markets. Since January 2010, visits to our main site in combination with our 20+ regional facebook forecast pages, total over 120 million hits from all 50 states and 100+ countries. (Screen shot: Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast Zone insights on Facebook)

    Third-party coverage Press coverage of our team began with a March 2005 article by reporter Bill Gates of the Dundalk Eagle in southeast Baltimore County, Maryland. Starting in Winter 2009, our members have been featured numerous times in print, TV and internet media across Maryland and the Mid-Atlantic including this special feature by ABC-2 in Baltimore, MD by Meteorologist Justin Berk. In recent months the pace of media attention has increased. The latest media event was April 12, 2011, where three members of the team were featured on a national radio net broadcast called WeatherBrains. Earlier in April, Lead Forecaster Matt B. of Central Florida was interviewed on the internet radio program Barometer Bob from Georgia.

    In addition, our students and advisors  have participated in a mosaic of public events in between all the forecasting including conference presentations. Despite increasing media attention, our forecasters retain their humility and work ethic. Our advisors continue to provide technical and personal support as the team advances through their educational careers and beyond. The section below is a chronology of media features about the Foot's Forecast Team.

    On Wednesday, April 13, 2011 members of the Maryland Team presented at an educational technology conference at the Baltimore Convention Center. (L to R) Forecaster Connor M. from Atholton High School, Media Strategist Diandre Williams from Baltimore County and Forecaster Nikki Byers from the College of Southern Maryland in St. Mary's  County. Also presenting were  MD Team Administrator Aaron Salter and Lead Advisor Mr. Foot

    Spring 2011

    4/13/2011 - Team conference presentation 
    "Foot's Forecast: A collaborative opportunity for your students"

    4/12/2011 - WeatherBrains
    Foot's Forecast Team interviewed Team members Mr. Foot from Dundalk, MD, Storm Chaser Vince Webb from Brandon, MS and Advisor Forrest Palmer from Atlanta, GA were guests on the weekly internet radio program "WeatherBrains" broadcast from Birmingham, Alabama. Radio hosts were James Spann and Bill Murray. The team extends their thanks to program sponsors The Weather Company and of ABC affiliates Channel 33/40. 
    Episode # 272: Weblink | Audio link (scroll to 12 mins for interview) 

    4/4/2011 - WeatherBrains
    Advisor Mike Mogil interviewed The hosts of WeatherBrains welcomed Meteorologist and NOAA Weather Camp coordinator H. Michael Mogil of Naples, FL to the weekly broadcast. Mr. Mogil discussed his weather education company, How The Weatherworks, the NOAA Careers Camps program and his linkages with Foot's Forecast.

    Show Episode # 271: Weblink | Audio link

    March 2011 - Barometer Bob: Forecaster Matt Bolton interviewed

    Winter 2010-2011
    2/9/2011 - Dundalk Eagle
    "Local weather service called a national model
    -Sara Blumberg

    1/25/2011 - Carroll County Times
    "Weather or not: Rain changing to snow" - Brandon Oland

    1/24/2011 - Baltimore Sun
    "...forecast leans...changing to snow"  - Frank Roylance

    1/21/2011 - Odenton Patch
    "Five of our favorite weather websites"  - Tim Lemke

    1/10/2011 - Annapolis Capital
    "Storm may dump up to 5 inches"

    1/6/2011 - Maryland Life Magazine
    "Foot's Forecast"  - Shirley Grace, Photo by Eli Meir Kaplan

    12/21/2010 - MPT Maryland Public Television 
    Live studio interview for Direct Connection  - Jeff Salkin

    12/18/2010 - Carroll County Times
    "Snow on Christmas Day possible"   - Brandon Oland

    12/18/2010 - WMAR ABC2 (Youtube video )
    " 2009-10:  One For The Record Books"  - Justin Berk

    12/15/2010 - Dundalk Eagle
    "Whither Winter?"  - Bill Gates

    Fall 2010
    11/4/2010 - Severna Park Voice
    "Nine Questions with Rich Foot"John Singleton

    10/15/2010 - Baltimore Running Examiner 

    Summer 2010
    7/14/2010 - Dundalk Eagle
    "Hot times are coming." - Bill Gates

    7/1/2010 - WJZ CBS Channel 13 
    "Amateur Forecasters Create Hurricane Exercise" -Mike Schuh

    7/7/2010 - Carroll Community Times
    Winter-Spring 2010
    2/17/2010 - Maryland Public Television
    "Taking the area by storm..." - Jeff Salkin

    2/15/2010 - Dundalk Eagle
    2/10/2010 - WYPR 88.1 Public Radio
    (on-air interview with Dan Rodricks of Midday Connection)

    2/8/2010 - Baltimore Sun
    "...uncannily accurate with storms this winter..." - Frank Roylance

    2/5/2010 - ABC2 News
    (on-air interview with Meteorologist Justin Berk)

    2/4/2010 - MIX 106.5 FM
    (morning interview with JoJo & Reagan)

    2/4/2010 - Example from the blogosphere
    "Totally random: Foot's Forecast"

    1/26/2010 - SHINE 95.1 FM
    (Wed PM 1/26 afternoon interview  - Jack & Erin for 1/30 storm)

    12/19/2009 - Baltimore Sun
    "Ready...set, snow. " - Frank Roylance

    Back in the day...
    March 2007 - Dundalk Eagle
    (article about Dundalk High-based Foot's  Forecast) - Bill Gates

    9/21/2005 - The Houston Chronicle SciGuy Blog
    September 2005
    The Providence Journal "Citizen weather forecasting"

    OUR 2010 "YEARBOOK"
    This section is an archival record to familiarize you, our readers, clients and media partners with past activities of these enterprising young men and women.

    JUNE-JULY 2010 The first day of July 2010 was one of those exciting leaps forward for the team. Forecasters Ryan K., Greg J., Evan S. and Advisor Aaron Salter participated in a hurricane simulation exercise at the Baltimore County Emergency Operations Center in Towson, MD. This was to test emergency response to the effects of a Category 1/2 Hurricane making landfall near the coast of MD/VA. Our gratitude is extended to County Executive Jim Smith, Lt. Mark Demski and Emergency Specialist Jay Ringgold for their strong support of these efforts to provide our forecasters with real-life exposure to how public agencies manage high impact weather situations.

    Among the activities of late include a team presentation at the June 2010 Conference of the MD Emergency Management Association. Last month, we have welcomed to the Southeast Team Ms. Chrissy Warrilow, a certified Tri-State Facebook Forecast Page. In early and mid-June, Forecasters Aaron and Mr. Foot provided forecasting services in the Surf & Sail Zone to the bi-annual Bermuda Ocean Race sponsored by the Annapolis, MD Eastport Yacht Club. Captain Larry Vazzano and the crew of the Wharf Rat, one of the race teams which utilized our products, achieved 1st place in their class. 


    SUMMER 2010
    Surf & Sail Zone: Bermuda Ocean Race | June 2010
    Hurricane Zone: Forecast Resource Page| May-November 2010
    Tropical Zone: Facebook Forecast Page | All seasons
    Team Resource Page: Forecast links and references | All seasons

    SPRING 2010
    Severe Storm Center: Daniel Ross | March-May 2010
    Long Range Analysis: Forecasters Ross & Krimm | Feb-Dec 2010
    Birdland Zone: Greg Jackson | April-October 2010
    Spring Break Zone: Ryan Krimm | March-April 2010
    Earthquake & Volcano Zone: Forecasters Foot & Krimm | March 2010

    WINTER 2009-2010
    Kahunageddon 2010: Reliving our "Fantastic February"
    Weather Safety Zone: PasadenaMatt | Feb-March 2010
    Storm Data Zone: Dakota, Greg, Ryan | Feb-March 2010

    Winter Stormcast Zones 
    Jan 2010 # 1Jan 2010 # 2
    February 1-15, 2010 | Feb-Mar 2010 Kahunacast Zone
    Winter 2010 Olympics: Mr. Foot | Feb 2010
    Student Climate Collaborative: Baltimore students | 11/09-3/10

    Sunday, August 8, 2010

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    August Heat 


    8:50 AM SUN 8.08.2010
    Dangerously hot conditions will being Monday into Thursday for the Eastern U.S. and Mid-West. Temperatures in this time period will range from 90-100 if not higher. Mix this with dew points in the upper 60's and low 70's and it begins to feel like 100+. Entire states are under Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat advisories on the current NWS map. In areas noted by orange on this map, heat indices will range from 100°  to 110° in daylight hours this weekend. The culprit is a high pressure ridge across the southeast, now building northward. The ridge looks to peak Wednesday and begin to be replaced by Friday.
    While we recognize many workers in public safety and entertainment are required to be outdoors, including police, fire, utility crews and even amusement park staff - we urge everyone to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks and do not over-exert. (Forecaster Zak Brisko)

    HEAT INDEX / HEALTH RISKS   Important heat safety information from the National Weather Service, and a source for our heat index level system.




    Level 4 Heat Index of 130° or higher: HEATSTROKE LIKELY.

    Norfolk, VA: 2 | Charlottesville, VA: 2 | Washington DC: 2
    Frederick, MD: 2 | Philadelphia, PA: 2 | Harrisburg, PA: 2

    Monday, July 19, 2010

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    Welcome to FootMedia! Now you, our fans and readers, have a place for your weather photos to be seen by all friends of Foot's Forecast. Forward your photos to with your name, date, location where photo was taken, and any caption you recommend we use. All photos become property of Foot's Forecast.

     Sample Pictures
           Posted by Zak Brisko 7/20/2010: Greencastle, PA.
              Left: Rain on the way ; Right: Morning sky    

    Saturday, June 19, 2010

    1 comment:
    This is PasadenaMatt, the Public Safety monitor for the Forecast Team. We have researching this new page for some time, and I am pleased to present it as we head toward the end of winter and upcoming weather events.
    All Hazards Approach
    6:45 PM Saturday 6.19.2010  Hello Everyone. Since it is Hurricane Season, I thought I would update this section so everyone can prepare for a safe Hurricane Season. Hurricanes bring dangerous winds, rain, flooding, tornados, and storm surge. The best approach is an all hazards approach. Being prepared for all types of weather and emergencies is very important. People think that even a Tropical Storm or weak Hurricane is not a big deal but these small weaker storms can still pack the punch.

    During this quiet time of hurricane tracking, it is best to prepare for your families for these storms. Get a kit, Make a plan, and stay informed.

    Get a Kit
    Making a kit can be easy and not expensive. You can buy the supplies when they are on sale or you can go to the Dollar Store and find cheaper supplies.

    What Every Kit Should Have In It:
    • Clean Water-Atleast 1 gallon per person for atleast 3 days (The More the Better)
    • Non-Perishable Food-Powdered Milk, Peanut Butter, Crackers, Powdered Potato Mix, etc. (Atleast 3 Days but more the better).
    • Radio-The Best are Battery Powdered, Hand-Cranked, or even solar powdered.
    • First Aid Kit
    • Extra Perscription and Non-Perscription Medicine
    • Flash Lights
    • Batteries
    • Fire Extinguishers
    • Smoke Detectors
    • Sleeping Bags (If you have to evacuate to a shelter)
    • Local Maps (If you have to evacuate to a shelter)
    • List of Important Phones
    • Land-line Phone (Really Good For Power Outages)
    Make a Plan
    Make a plan determining what you will do for all hazards. During most emergencies, everyone isnt always in the same place at the right time. Have a list of important numbers and numbers for extended family members. Have a plan for where you will meet during emergencies.

    Stay Informed
    Be informed is very important. Knowledge for all hazards is the best aproach. Being prepared for hurricane season is important but you should also be informed for all hazards all year long.

    Some Important Links for More Information:

    4:45 PM FRI 3.12.2010  A Major rainstorm is affecting the Mid-Atlantic Region throughout the weekend. 2-3+ inches of rain is likely over many areas. Expect flooding conditions in areas that have poor drainage and low-lying areas. The National Weather Service has issued many Advisories, Watches and Warnings across the eastern seaboard. If you live near poor drainage areas or low-lying areas, you should monitor the water conditions. Power outages are likely do the saturation of the ground.

    IF Roads are Flooded DO NOT drive through them.

    Sunday, June 13, 2010

    1 comment:


    8:20 AM SUN 6.13.2010
    From June 11-18, our Sailcast Team has been recruited to forecast for the 17th Biennial Bermuda Ocean Race (BOR) sponsored by The Annapolis, MD based Eastport Yacht Club and the St. George's Dinghy & Sports Club in Bermuda. Below is the graphical "Rhumb Line" forecast issued to all race participants and you can follow progress of the flotilla en route to Bermuda on an interactive boat mapper from Our latest synopsis and forecast discussion is posted in the section below for all race participants to access via their satellite phone.

    The current NWS Marine Forecast for the Mid-Atlantic waters. A low pressure system which produced showers and storms overnight has moved northeast of the flotilla. Southwest flow will increase to 10-15 kts today into Monday. Tonight and Monday, showers and storms will redevelop between the Baltimore and Hatteras Canyons ahead of a cold front departing the east coast. By late Monday this front stalls between 75W and 70W as a high builds in S and E of the waters off New England. The front will push southeast and will set off squalls and storms along  the Rhumb Line Tuesday night into Wednesday. By Wednesday a northeast to easterly fetch sets up between 70W and 60W, with the risk of squalls and storms continuing as the flotilla approaches the island by Friday. Fair winds to all competitors! 

    SUN-MON Winds increase from the SW.
    Rain threats are primarily brief showers.
    MON-TUE Winds back from SW to SE
    as a front stalls near the east coast.
    WED-FRI The front pushes south, E to NE
    fetch develops as seas build to 4-7 feet
    while squalls move along the frontal boundary.

    The Surf & Sail Zone is a specialty forecast product focusing on wind, waves and weather along the Chesapeake Bay and Mid-Atlantic coast. We will be developing specialized wind forecasting products for fellow sailing enthusiasts. What experience do we have on the water? Mr. Foot and his family, owning waterfront property along the Chesapeake Bay's Elk River, have been recreational boaters and sailors all their lives. Among our accomplishments includes a week-long independent sail in the British Virgin Islands one week aboard a 42-foot pontoon hobie. Stay on our crew this summer and we can help your surf & sail plans from getting "in irons!" This zone will be a companion to the Bayshore Region, covering land-based forecasting for eastern Maryland and Delaware. If you'd like to see your coastal-oriented event featured, please contact us at

    Surface streamlines: USNJ | DE | MD | Radar: Dover & coastal radar