Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Have we got plans for you

8:00 AM SUNDAY 1-24-2010. This outline of our ideas with regard to winter storm potential will be augmented with supporting links and details each day. The quick summary? Our forecast team has increasing confidence a prolonged period of snowy weather will occur between January 30 to February 10. We are assembling reports from professional meteorologists to give you a sense of what other investigators see.

WHAT'S THE GENERAL IDEA? Think of the 2010's as the new 1960's. As Meteorologist Larry Cosgrove reported in the Houston Examiner, the long range ensemble means of several computer models shows the upcoming February pattern bears striking similarity to years which featured historic snowstorms. Among the analog years were 1964, 1966, 1968, 1977, 1996 and 2003. Perhaps some of our seasoned powderhounds can spin a tale or two about the "walking to school uphill both ways in two feet of snow."

OUTLINE OF DATA INVESTIGATIONS  Note that links and trend discussions will be added as time permits in each section, check back each day for more details.

The Atmosphere
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): -0.5
Arctic Oscillation (AO): -0.75
Pacific N American Index (PNA): +0.25

The Hydrosphere
Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for Oct-Nov-Dec: +1.5 C
Weekly El Nino reading for Pacific Region 3.4: +1.7 C
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): pending

The Cryosphere
Northern Hemispheric Snow Cover: NOAA reported the December 2009 snow cover reached the largest geographic extent since record-keeping began in 1967. Source: NOAA December 2009 Global Stats report

We welcome your questions and input as we collectively ramp up the research in advance of our next Big Kahuna. -Forecaster Foot

No comments: