Monday, February 1, 2010

"I have a bad feeling about this..."
- Han Solo in Star Wars

6:00 AM MONDAY 2.1.2010  Now is that any way to start what may be a Fantastic February? (that is, unless you are with state highway administration crews!)

If you saw some of the current text reports coming from NOAA's HPC in Camp Springs, MD - you'd think we were once again hyping storm potential for the sake of ratings. Suffice to say what may be coming in the Friday-Sunday time frame could rival the Superbowl for intensity and coverage. If you have weekend plans, such as attending the annual MAEOE environmental science conference in Rocky Gap, MD ; better keep a close eye on this storm potential. For a glimpse, let's just leave here this snippet of their original ideas posted by HPC on Sunday afternoon 1.31:
1:56 PM SUN 31 JANUARY 2010: (emphasis ours)
HVY RAINFALL SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS TX WED AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO MUCH OF FL/GA/SC AND NC THURS TO FRI. HVY RAINFALL WITH FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL WELL INLAND IN THE APPLCHNS AND FOOTHILLS FRI AND SAT AS HVY RAIN SPREADS INTO ERN NC/VA.  HVY PCPN EVENT SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE MID ATLC REGION SAT VERY POSSIBLY INTO SUN SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THREAT IS POSSIBLE. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONG ONSHORE WIND CONSENSUS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC SEABOARD WITH OCEAN OVER WASH/BEACH EROSION/COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
Granted they update ideas twice a day, so please consider monitoring HPC discussions in the preliminary (early morning) and final extended (mid afternoon) reports. Obviously trends will change, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is sending mixed signals. This storm could go south of DC, but we've heard that before. By the early looks of this, it would be nice for it to go WAY south - as in out to sea. Our team will be examining where a high will setup, what the NAO is doing and positioning of the polar vortex. We use HPC ideas as a general guide and then on our own go into the gritty details of each data point they raise to unpack the actual details.


Yes, Virginia, there is snow potential for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Details on that in our facebook page, and we will report back on those developments tonight. Welcome to February, if you have a bad feeling about this - then tighten your seatbelt!


A copy of our latest storm grade data for the Mid-Atlantic and the I-40 corridor, as forecasted by students at the BCPS Crossroads Center, will be posted in our "Storm Data Zone" Note grades for Virginia and Delaware are pending - so they are not included yet.

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