Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Where will you be...
The day after tomorrow?


4:30 PM WEDNESDAY 2.3.2010 

NWS Advisory statements: Baltimore-Washington

SYNOPSIS Based on the team's 12+ hours of analysis into climate teleconnection trends, computer model data and affect of current snowcover on temperature projections, the forecast team has assembled 2 scenarios for the Mid-Atlantic:

SCENARIO A 12-18" of snow from Washington to Philadelphia with higher amounts further inland, ending Sunday morning. Some mixing may occur along I-95. In this scenario, snow should arrive around noon Friday in southwest Virginia, and after the evening commute along I-95 and continue to Sunday morning.

SCENARIO B 18-26" across the western Chesapeake Bay into the Piedmont with isolated higher amounts, including the entire I-95 corridor. In this scenario, heavy snow arrives across the region by mid-afternoon Friday. The evening commute along I-95 would be difficult but not impossible. Mixing of sleet occurs in lower southern Maryland and along the eastern shore. 

Supporting data The 12z (7am) projections from the North American Mesoscale (NAM) project roughly 3.0 inches of liquid for the Baltimore metro area. We are not making this up. Please consider the impact this situation could have on your family, students, schools and property, and make the necessary arrangements if you believe the data is not lying.

5:30 AM WEDNESDAY 2.3.2010 Snowfall began clearing Maryland's Bay region just after 4:00 AM. With this being a heavy wet snow and surface temps close to 32 F has permitted state highway crews to keep main roads clear. View latest road and traffic conditions on MD DOT's CHART (Coordinated Highway Action Response Team) website. News reports indicate few incidents on major thoroughfares.

Widespread delays across Maryland indicates that school grounds crews anticipate some warming mid and late morning will enhance the cleanup process. We ascertain that is the reason most VA and MD western shore schools will open 2 hours late today. Several southern MD and Eastern shore districts are closed. Though many of you in the school community were hoping or expecting a closing, in this active El Nino pattern, it may be wise to "get as many days in" as you can. Remember January 1994?
This weekend's SuperKahuna is already developing over southern Texas. Computer models continue to project between 1.0 and 2.5 inches of liquid for much of the Mid-Atlantic, including most of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia, DelMarVa, New Jersey.  Last nights liquid equivalent projections are shown below from the mid-range NAM (North American Mesoscale) model. Later this morning, details of our research and investigations will be shifting to a new page on this site to be titled "KahunaCast Zone."   Until then, the HPC has given clear warning this storm will not be for the faint of heart.

Announcing a new forecast zone! The Foot's Forecast team is proud to welcome Christine McEnrue, a junior in Meteorology from the Pennsylvania State University. Christine, who also works alongside Forecasters Matt Alto and Jon Kegges at the PSU Campus Weather Service, will be leading a newly developed Southeastern Pennsylvania Zone. This is wonderful news for our long time loyal readers in PA whom have waited in the weather wilderness for this to occur. They will discover Ms. McEnrue's skills to be spot-on with regard to the nuances of forecasting, as she comes to the table with an impressive resume of background in Dynamic and Synoptic Meteorology. The zone will be posted later today, to include the PA counties starting in Lancaster going northeast to Northampton, then south to Philadelphia and back west. Welcome Christine, we are thrilled to have you on the team!  - Forecaster Foot

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