Sunday, February 7, 2010

Lead Forecaster Ryan K., Sparrows Point High School
Collaborators: Mr. Foot, Winterman, Brisko, Dakota

11:25 AM WEDNESDAY 02.10.10- Many are enduring the ongoing heavy snow and blizzard conditions that are occurring in MD and up and down the Northeast coast. Millions are being affected by the worst blizzard to hit the area this season. Sure we have seen two 20''+ snowstorms this year, so this storm may not produce as much, but the blizzard conditions and drift will be far superior. Here is a map from the NWS that shows the extent of the blizzard warnings with all of Maryland and Delaware in the warnings. Also, here is a link to the National Weather Service Base Reflectivity Image. 
NWS Sterling Radar 

That's about it for now. This is Forecaster Ryan, stay safe out there. 

8:15 AM TUESDAY 02.09.10 Mid-Atlanticans, I hope you are ready for the next big event. Many people are aware of the large amount of snow we have on the gorund, and where this next batch is going to go. Most of the time, a storm like the one we are receiving tonight into tomorrow would be the storm that defines our winter season here in Maryland. However, things are a little bit different this year, with the whole state of Maryland receiving up to 500% of their seasonal average already with a couple of weeks left in the winter season.

So far, our season has included many events, some small, some big, with some being K-U storms. Today we will begin to feel the impact of our third K-U storm in this winter alone. Winter's like this can only compare to the multiple snowstorms of 1987 and with an even better comparison being 1958. You could try to compare 1958 to this year, but even that pale's in comparison to our winter we've had so far. 

12:30 PM MONDAY 02.08.10  -We prepare once again for a big kahuna event. After collaboration, it seems evident that another significant witner storm will hit the Mid-Atlantic and this time parts of the northeast as well. The storm has showed a bit of a trend, actually quite a decent trend south at H5, which is something people in Maryland need if you want lots of snow. the models at this point in favor of a significant snow are the GFS (up to 20''), the GGEM (18-24''), UKMET, (10-15''), JMA (12-18"), Euro (9-14'') and to some extent the NAM (8-12''). When you consider the models that have been accurate over the past few weeks and how they have done with past storms, it is an easy decision to blend the GGEM/GFS/UKMET. When this is done, it shows that snow accumulations of 10-15'' are possible from BWI and to the north and east including the Baltimore Metropolitan area iteself with some areas receiving up to 20''.

Another factor that could and should be present in the upcoming storm is the wind. Many of the models have shown the low pressure system that develops off the coast deepening very quickly, and as you know a deepening low means that the storm is going to have some winds with it. People in the Baltimore area should expect wind gusts up to 40mph if the storm hugs the coast, and during the heaviest snow, there may be near blizzard conditions. The HPC has mentioned the possibility of this as it is certainly one that is present in the situation. 

Finally, something that people need to take attention to is the amount of snow already on the ground. After the final chances at melting today, many will have a snowpack at or above 20'' with 4' snow piles all over the place. That means there will not really be ample places to put the snow as well as another threat: the amount of snow on roofs and awnings. As a precaution, if you are able to, it is suggested you clear some of the snow off of your roofs and awnings even though this storm will have lighter snow compared to the weekend event. For wind forecasts, check the Winter Stormcast Zone. 

After this second storm impacts the area, there is a potential for up to 50'' of snow to be present in areas, with very few locations to place the snow. Be prepared ahead of time as to where all of this new snow will go. Be safe and good luck, you may need it.


The great history-making blizzard of 2010 has rolled out to sea. However, although the Kahunaggedon will surely never be forgotten, there is another significant storm on its heels. Our attention turns to the potential for heavy snow Tuesday into Wednesday.

ARRIVAL By 2 PM Tuesday 2.9 across Virginia and central MD.
AMOUNTS 6 or more; if current computer model trends continue, the potential exists for accumulations to reach or exceed 12 inches, based on projected liquid equivalents of approximately 1.0 - 1.5 for Maryland and northern Virginia; ratio of ~16:1.

DISCUSSION The setup will include a low approaching from the plains as the primary, then like the last storm did will pop a secondary (most likely right off Cape Hatteras.) The secondary, already show on the map by HPC, will then ride along the eastern seaboard, possibly bringing more heavy snow to the Mid-Atlantic. Current snowcover is 20-30 over several states, so for some this will be an unwanted storm. For powderhounds, we are having a dream season. Current indications are that there will once again be a sharp cutoff in the snowfall totals, a commonality this season.

MARYLAND forecast Map. The Mid-Atlantic/Northeast map issued in FINAL CALLS Tuesday afternoon. Cities and preliminary amounts are posted in the Winter Stormcast Zone.

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