Sunday, February 28, 2010

Winter Stormcast Zone: March 2010
Forecaster Ryan K: Sparrows Point High School, Baltimore County, MD
Collaborators: Zak Brisko, Winterman, Dakota, PasadenaMatt, Daniel Ross, Mr. Foot

8:45 PM SUNDAY 2.28.2010 As the final few hours of meteorological tick away, we look ahead to what looks to be an active spring. My full march outlook will be posted here and then likely transferred to the Long Range Zone. So, to the storm for this week. There does not look to be much in the offing for us, as the 18z GFS 84hr Storm total precip shows, this storm will likely trek out to sea, giving us nothing more than a few non-accumulating snow showers. There are different things ahead, different weather could be headed for you as we change seasons and start meteorological spring here at Foot's Forecast. The pattern will warm up, but snow may not be done. Read the note below for confirmation on that and the previous post for my full thoughts on the mid week storm.

WARNING: WINTER MAY NOT BE OVER, CALL IT OFF AT YOUR OWN RISK. THANK YOU.

At 945 PM, the NAM looks quite good, and at the 500mb level the storm looks slightly promising. There will be more updates to follow, as the mid week storm is not yet dead, and could do small things, but I'd still say only a few snow showers for now. (00z GFS also west)



10:45 AM SUNDAY 2.28.2010
The HPC 5 Day QPF map shows that there is some precip that should impact the area over the next few days, however it is also easily visible that the brunt of the storm system should trek to our south. However, after viewing the latest model runs, we don't need much to catch a significant storm here in MD and up the I-95 corridor. The 500mb upper air images are key at this point, as it is a common trend with models to adjust later at the surface than in the upper atmosphere. What may hinder the storms development could be a storm that sits up to the northeast off of New England. This storm is pushing our midweek storm to the south as shown in the image below with a small description. 

ANALYSIS The image is an analysis of the GFS model at 54hrs, which has the low close enough to do its damage to you snowlovers out there looking for a grand finale.
It is obvious that the Newest 12z GFS run with one of the images posted above is trending this storm farther away from us. The 00z GFS from last night was starting to come closer to the coast along with the rest of the 00z runs, but now things are headed back away from us. The 00z NAM from last night was showing what I expect to be a hit for the I-95 corridor. The 500mb 78hr 00z NAM from last night showed a very good position in the upper levels that would favor snow up and down the coast. Now the storm may not be done trending, as we have seen many storms that have trended back in our favor, or simply have not been done trending inside 72hrs time. If something is going to come back our way though, expect it sooner than later. 

Welcome Forecaster Nick: My ex partner on many blog sites, and has now rejoined the team. Here are his thoughts on the upcoming storm: The next storm coming from the Southeast looks like it does have some potential to come up the coast and affect us, but it is going against a slowly moving low leaving NE, which could steer the storm further south, meaning we are also going to have to rely on a phase to get this storm moving, otherwise this is going to exit stage right. For more, click below.

The latest model runs have clearly shown this happening, so we would need the storm in the NE to exit a lot quicker and the incoming storm to get as close to a phase as possible to get a full blown coastal storm.

BL/Surface temps may also be a problem, since this is an Early March storm meaning the sun angle will pose a problem. We would then need a better and stronger artic air mass to keep BL temperatures low, and in fact the models are trying to get some sort of HP to our north in the time frame, but will it be enough.

Overall this storm looks like it will exit OTS only affecting the Southern Mid Atlantic and SE, but there is still some potential that this will go further north.

7:30 AM SUNDAY 2.28.2010
The team is now examining the next winter weather threat for Tuesday into Wednesday. Initial ideas were this future storm only remaining mostly south of the Mid-Atlantic, affecting central Virginia and the Carolinas. The CPC Threats Analysis (as posted in the previous post) has shown this for several days. As of this morning, there is increased potential for the storm to edge farther north as it develops on Tuesday. Regarding weekly temperatures, NOAA outlooks suggest below normal temperatures for most areas to be affected by this storm. If this trend continues into Monday, a Level 1 Alert may be issued to advise you that we believe significant winter weather may approach within 72 hours.

WHERE STORMS HAVE FORMED
As your life experience this winter in the eastern U.S. can attest,more storms developed (undergone "cyclogenesis") than have faded since December 1. This map from the Climate Prediction Center shows areas where storms developed. It is likely this trend will continue for the first half of March, with several coastal storms possible between 3/2 and 3/12.

KEY INDICATORS WE MONITOR
(1) Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), currently -0.25, projected to move toward -1.0 by late week; (2) Changes in the Arctic Oscillation (AO), strongly negative at -3.0, is projected to being rising toward neutral; (3) The Pacific-North American Index (PNA), revealing strength and duration of a western ridge, is approximately neutral, but appears trend notably positive in the next five days. When computer models suggest winter weather in the U.S., we examine these teleconnections for signs of how large scale atmospheric dynamics play a role in influencing the path of a storm.

7:00 PM SATURDAY 2.27.2010 
While our team assembles data from this Northeast/New England UltraKahuna, you should take a few moments to scan the NOAA Storm Summary # 10. Phenomenally high snow amounts reported in every state from Michigan to Maryland to Maine. For some, these totals even eclipsed the 1993 and 1996 blizzards. A sampling:
WV: 43.7 in Bayard | MD: 36.0 in Oakland | PA: 31.9 in Hawley
NJ: 33.0 in Sparta Township | NY: 53.0 in Potter Hollow
VT: 52.0 in Woodford | NH: 43.0 in Randolph | OH: 11.2 in Pierpont
MI: 8.1 in Mason | ME: 15.1 in Temple | MA: 25.0 in Rowe

WHAT ABOUT MARCH 2-3-4 ? 
Some early indications about storm potential can be found in the HPC Short Range Discussion, the HPC Snow/Ice Discussion as well NWS offices in Sterling, VA and Blacksburg, VA. The team has been investigating this situation and will be posting our statements tonight in this relaunched zone as we "March forth."

ANALYSIS LINKS & RESOURCES
NCEP Models |

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