Sunday, February 21, 2010

"You can't hurry love..."
- Diana Ross and the Supremes, in their summer 1966 hit

6:00 PM MONDAY 2.22.2010  If you are a powderhound hoping for more snow, or a spring-a-ling yearning to see greener pastures, know that getting there will be a game of give and take. Both outcomes are likely in the month ahead, but the weather pattern is not in a hurry to change, so this love won't come easy.

THOUGHTS ON THE WEEK AHEAD Team pattern analysis and consideration for what research meteorologists and climate investigators are saying leads to this synopsis: Wednesday and Thursday may feature an intermittent period of light snows across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Accumulations Wednesday will not be on the scale of recent storms. We project two hypotheses being co-investigated in the Winter Stormcast Zone. Climate pattern indications for what lies beyond this storm to be presented in the Long Range Zone.

PLAN A Low pressure curves along the east coast, delivering intermittent light snow into a stable cold air mass. However, the storm does not explode into a strong coastal event for the Mid-Atlantic. This would be because the Canadian maritime high drifts northeast, permitting the storm to slowy escape out, lessening the chance of rapid intensification.

PLAN B The blocking Canadian maritime high prevents much forward motion of the storm, driving it in toward the coast. The increasing pressure difference leads to windy conditions and much higher snow accumulations, especially in New England. Moisture transport from the ocean encounters an increasingly colder temperature regime over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Thursday.

MINOR MONDAY  Though "flooding" was not a major concern today, we hope those of you in the Mid-Atlantic did not arrive home to find water waiting in unplanned, unexpected places. The best six hours of weather this entire week may have been from 7 AM to 1 PM today. For remainder of the week, any snow not cleared from storm drains will melt more slowly. If it refreezes and gets snowcovered again -- then Diana would say "you'll just have to wait!"

ABOUT ACCURACY   A direct link to an Excel 97-2003 spreadsheet containing our Storm Forecast Data thus far in Winter 2009-10. Many thanks to Techcaster Evan and the team for the many hours devoted to assembling this report.

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