FEATURED FORECASTERS

by PSU Meteorologists Matt Alto and Jonathan Kegges on Palestra.net

7:00 AM THURSDAY 3.25.2010 Today's feature videos are from Forecasters Matt Alto and Jon Kegges. Matt joined the team in December 2009 and has covered the Northeast Ohio area since January 2010. The first video, recorded Wednesday for a Thursday broadcast is by Jon Kegges, a Meteorology senior at Penn State. Jon has forecasted for our Western Pennsylvania Zone since January 2010. Each week Matt and Jon prepare forecast videos for the college sports network Palestra.net, and we are proud to showcase their work to demonstrate the caliber of your Forecast Team.

Matt Alto, a junior at Penn State University majoring in Meterology, provided the Tuesday night broadcast as shown below. Matt was recently rated the #1 most accurate college student forecaster by the North American Weather Challenge Contest conducted by the University of Oklahoma.

Each day this week we will feature different zones or accomplishments of these multi-talented enterprising young men and women. We hope it will inspire you to tell all your friends something like: "Hey go check Foot's site.. there are some amazing kids on there doing national videos and zone forecasters all over the east coast." Putting it in perspective, all that's happened on this site the past six years was just the first inning of what will be a very exciting ball game. Opening day is coming soon, got your tickets?

"Not enough time..."

by INXS in their 1992 album Welcome to Wherever You Are

SYNOPSIS  (for those with not enough time)

- Pacfic Ocean temperature anomalies due to the current El Nino cycle remain above historical averages, suggesting that stormy weather will persist through the Spring for much of the Eastern U.S.

- Colder conditions are expected this weekend across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as a storm system travels through the southeast while high pressure orients near the Great Lakes.  Brief periods of snow are possible late Friday into Saturday for parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

6:00 AM TUESDAY 3.23.2010  From the not-yet-recovered flood waters of the northeast to the snowmelt floods of the northern plains or the latest round of winter weather in the southern plains -- there's been not enough time in between events for residents to catch a break from the onslaught of 2010. It has been a "Wherever you are" year, as much of the planet has endured a more variable fall-winter-early spring due largely to the cyclical nature of the 2009-2010 El Nino.

As reported by the Southeast U.S. Farm Press, the impacts of El Nino have already caused significant problems for farmers in some areas, yet helped produced a bumper crop in others.  Is help on the way? Perhaps, depending on where you live. Preliminary data reported by NASA suggests a possible weakening trend, but with Oceanic Heat Content anomalies still above 1.5 degrees C, the Climate Prediction Center reminds that effects of the current cycle will linger well into summer.

GREAT. WHAT ABOUT THIS WEEKEND?  The problem with being in an extreme cycle is that it can take a considerable period of time to rebalance.  Thus, the Forecast Team does not recommend you put away all the winter gear just yet in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. As recent as April 6-7, 2007 - some eastern cities saw measureable snow on Easter eggs and gave the bunny a chilly morning trip. We are watching for the potential of a shift in the cold regime from the central plains to the east, with the possibility of a chilly rain or brief overnight snow Friday into Saturday from Virginia through central Maryland to eastern Pennsylvania.

THE SPRING BREAK ZONE

"TRAVEL & WEATHER GO TOGETHER"
FORECASTS FOR HOT VACATION SPOTS

By Forecaster Ryan K., Dundalk, Maryland

"It's time to say goodbye"

8:45 PM TUE 4.6.2010 Well ladies and gentlemen, after forecasting for the best Spring Break locations, the breaks that many students, teachers, parents, and others experienced is winding down and saying goodbye to everyone. I am sure that next year, the zone will return, forecasting for even more places and in a stronger form. Spring break is meant to enjoy, and I hope everyone that hoped to have some time for themselves did so, because many love it this time of year. Tune in next year as the Spring Break Zone will surely be revived. FAREWELL FOLKS! From Forecaster RYAN.

8:30 PM FRI 4.2.2010 In many of our vacation spots which are being forecasted for, the weather this week was very enjoyable, except for the passing shower or two. In this piece of the forecast, I will be issuing 3 day outlooks for the next 3 days (Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.) These forecasts are going to be in textual format unlike the last set because of the shorter period that is being analyzed. The locations that were previously used are the 14 that will be followed up on. Enjoy!


*Note: COP Denotes [chance of precipitation]

3 DAY OUTLOOKS

South Padre Island, TEXAS
Saturday: Sunny | Hi: 79 | Lo: 71 | COP: 0%
Sunday: Sunny | Hi: 81 | Lo: 69 | COP: 0%
Monday: Mostly Sunny | Hi: 80 | Lo: 72 | COP: 5%


Cancun, MEXICO
Saturday: Mostly Cloudy | Hi: 86 | Lo: 66 | COP: 20%
Sunday: Partly Cloudy | Hi: 85 | Lo: 67 | COP: 10%
Monday: Mostly Sunny | Hi: 87 | Lo: 66 | COP: 5%


Kingston, JAMAICA
Saturday: Partly Cloudy | Hi: 84 | Lo: 75 | COP: 15%
Sunday: Partly Cloudy | Hi: 85 | Lo: 74 | COP: 10%
Monday: Mostly Sunny | Hi: 84 | Lo: 73 | COP: 5%


San Juan, PUERTO RICO
Saturday: Chance of Showers | Hi: 84 | Lo: 73 | COP: 30%
Sunday: Mostly Cloudy | Hi: 85 | Lo: 75 | COP: 20%
Monday: Slgt Chc of Showers | Hi: 87 | Lo: 76 | COP: 25%


Saint Croix, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
Saturday: Chance of Showers | Hi: 83 | Lo: 74 | COP: 35%
Sunday: Slgt Chc of Showers | Hi: 85 | Lo: 73 | COP: 25%
Monday: Slgt Chc of Showers | Hi: 84 | Lo: 75 | COP: 20%


Key West, FLORIDA
Saturday: Sunny | Hi: 80 | Lo: 71 | COP: 0%
Sunday: Sunny | Hi: 80 | Lo: 71 | COP: 0%
Monday: Sunny | Hi: 82 | Lo: 69 | COP: 0%


Cocoa Beach, FLORIDA
Saturday: AM Fog/Sunny | Hi: 77 | Lo: 61 | COP: 0% 
Sunday: Sunny | Hi: 81 | Lo: 60 | COP: 0%
Monday: Sunny | Hi: 79 | Lo: 61 | COP: 0%


Fort Lauderdale, FLORIDA
Saturday: Sunny | Hi: 80 | Lo: 71 | COP: 0%
Sunday: Sunny | Hi: 83 | Lo: 69 | COP: 0%
Monday: Mostly Sunny | Hi: 79 | Lo: 69 | COP: 5%


Disney World Resort, FLORIDA *Orlando
Saturday: AM Fog/Sunny | Hi: 83 | Lo: 61 | COP: 0%
Sunny: Sunny | Hi: 84 | Lo: 62 | COP: 0% 
Monday: Sunny | Hi: 87 | Lo: 60 | COP: 0%


Panama City Beach, FLORIDA
Saturday: AM Fog/Mostly Sunny | Hi: 69 | Lo: 57 | COP: 5%
Sunday: Sunny | Hi: 70 | Lo: 56 | COP: 0%
Monday: Sunny | Hi: 74 | Lo: 63 | COP: 0%


Myrtle Beach, SOUTH CAROLINA
Saturday: Sunny | Hi: 78 | Lo: 56 | COP: 0%
Sunday: Sunny | Hi: 79 | Lo: 58 | COP: 0%
Monday: Mostly Sunny | Hi: 80 | Lo: 60 | COP: 5%


Nassau, THE BAHAMAS
Saturday: Partly Cloudy | Hi: 78 | Lo: 67 | COP: 10%
Sunday: Partly Cloudy | Hi: 80 | Lo: 68 | COP: 10%
Monday: Mostly Sunny | Hi: 80 | Lo: 69 | COP: 5%


Lake Havasu City, ARIZONA
Saturday: Mostly Sunny | Hi: 80 | Lo: 56 | COP: 5%
Sunday: Partly Cloudy | Hi: 80 | Lo: 57 | COP: 10%
Monday: Mostly Cloudy | Hi: 74 | Lo: 52 | COP: 15%


Disneyland, CALIFORNIA *Anaheim
Saturday: AM Fog/Partly Cloudy | Hi: 70 | Lo: 51 | COP: 10%
Sunday: Mostly Cloudy | Hi: 65 | Lo: 52 | COP: 15%
Monday: Chance of Showers | Hi: 63 | Lo: 46 | COP: 30%


10:30 PM SAT 3.27.2010

The big week has finally arrived. For most, this is the weekend in which many people are taking their vacations away from home and are enjoying a true "break." For some it couldn't have came any quicker, and is truly a breath of fresh air.

Enjoy these forecasts for 14 great destinations:

If anyone has any locations that they would like to have forecasted, please drop it in the comments and I will make it happen. Thanks!

"This is the time to remember..."

- Billy Joel, from his 1986 album The Bridge

View current temperatures as reported by Air Sports Net Weather

6:30 AM MONDAY 3.22.2010  Billy Joel's lyrics used to represent yesterday as the first full day of Spring hopefully spoke to many people in numerous ways. Snow- and cold-weary residents of the southern and central plains no doubt wondered if Spring even remembered them. Meanwhile, New England residents still under Flood Warnings  from the pour'easter-snow-melt-mayhem of last week probably agreed the weekend was a time to remember: A three or four-day string of 60's and 70's. If that summer-like preview had you thinking of warmer locales, bookmark The Spring Break Zone and enjoy Ryan K.'s forecasts for hot vacation spots across North America.

The contrasts observed on March 21, 2010 were memorable. Consider: As DC's cherry blossoms began unfurling for next weekend's national festival, palm trees in Dallas gritted their teeth through snow and temperatures in the mid 30's. While Tulsa, Oklahoma ground to a halt under their fifth major winter storm of the year, temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast climbed into the 70's.

Words to the weather wise: Those in the Northeast know paybacks are coming for that early Spring gift, as evidenced by the HPC 5-day precip forecast. All that moisture-laden energy is now charging over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, to descend on familiar areas: The Tennessee Valley, I-95 corridor, eastern PA and southern New England.

From the Forecast Team
On the Mid-Atlantic Facebook page, we invite you to a brief tour inside recent meetings of the Maryland and Pennsylvania teams which met at Penn State and the University of Maryland. This week, we plan to build our new specialty zones, including more Spring Break forecast details and the much-anticipated "Birdland Zone."  This will be first in a series of forecast projects utilizing our shortwave tracking techniques to predict arrival, duration and departure of inclement weather during pro baseball games. We will first focus on Camden Yards, and then expand from there to nearby stadiums in the Mid-Atlantic. Season openers are coming up soon - we're watching the long range already!

A SUNNY ST. PAT'S

but looking for luck in the flooded Northeast

7:15 AM WEDNESDAY 3.17.2010  It is an appropriate turn of events to have such improved weather on this St. Patrick's Day of 2010. Our thoughts go to those in the Northeast reeling from the "Pour'easter" floods, and will need all the help they can get to dry out. Hopefully today's golden sunshine we found at end of the rainbow will help.

Our Wednesday Outlook:
For the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley:  Sunny with highs in the low to mid 60's. For the Northeast, portions of which remain under flood warnings: Sunny but breezy with highs in the low 60's. The Southeast: Unfortunately, the rainbow did not extend as far south as hoped, for a low pressure system in southern Georgia will produce rainshowers for much of today across the eastern Gulf coast and lower southeastern states. Details in the Georgia-N. Florida Zone.

NEW FEATURES & SITE UPDATE: The Forecast Team is pleased to announce The Capital Zone, led by Forecaster Jason M. of Calvert County, MD. Also just launched on Sunday our first regional facebook page...Foot's Forecast: Southeast, led with southern charm by Forecaster Daniel Ross. The current facebook page stays with the Mid-Atlantic, led by the ever spot-on Forecaster Winterman. Forecaster Ryan K. has been busy again with an overview of the second half of March in the Long Range Zone. He is also developing a new travel forecast feature: The Spring Break Zone with a focus on what to expect in warmer locales for this coming weekend, the period March 26 to 31, and the first week of April to follow.

AS FOR THE NEW DOMAIN Under advisement from several school systems in Maryland, we are navigating the new site domain to http://www.footsforecast.us/.  By the end of today, all browsers should point there, regardless if you use the .org /  .us  / .blogspot. With a few days, the .blogspot.com domain will disappear entirely, thus solving the problem that many encountered with school filtering systems. Thanks everyone for your patience during this switch - many great days are ahead as we move toward a new site.

"A River Runs Through It"

The 1992 drama based on the 1976 novel by Norman Maclean

9:30 AM TUESDAY 3.16.2010  When residents across the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and New England say they have "had it up to here" with water (hand to top of neck), it is meant in a figurative AND literal sense. As shown by the Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center, numerous creeks, streams and rivers are swelled and are reaching flood stage today. In New York and New England, dozens of rivers are above flood stage, as shown by the Northeast River Forecast Center, prompting multiple states to announce emergency declarations due to the flood threat. Residents there know the feeling when you say "A River Runs Through It."

7:30 AM MONDAY 3.15.2010

The majority of heavy rain has now moved into New England. Rain which fell across eastern New York onto areas with snowcover will only add to significant downstream flooding as streams south of Cooperstown, NY drain through the Chesapeake Bay watershed.  It may take several days before this water input is observed through the Susquehanna River in Pennsylvania and down the Potomac River in Maryland.

Remember: If you encounter a water-covered roadway, the actual depth is much greater than it appears. Do the right thing: Turn Around, Don't Drown. It is not worth losing your life for that quick trip to the store.

NEW ZONES & COMMUNITIES The Forecast Team is pleased to announce the development of The Capital Zone, led by Forecaster Jason M. of Calvert County, MD. In addition, the Long Range Zone has been updated with details from Forecaster Ryan K. for the second half of March. Another new feature just launched is Foot's Forecast: Southeast! This is our first regional Facebook page for the southeastern U.S., led by Forecaster Daniel Ross. The current Facebook page will then focus on the Mid-Atlantic, and led by the always spot-on Forecaster Winterman.

HEY, IT COULD BE WORSE: The Superstorm of March 1993.

NO REST FOR THE RAIN WEARY

1:15 PM SATURDAY 3.13.2010  Many areas as shown above in the current US observed precip map have already seen .5-1.5" with another 1-2" occuring today. These amounts may push many streams, creeks, and rivers to near or above flood stage. Some areas in VA , WV and MD are already seeing some flooding. As of late last evening, NWS Flash Flood Guidance was  1.0" in 12 hrs over the northern part of MD and northern PA. We are monitoring data to see if these amounts will verify. ~ Forecaster Brisko

8:00 AM SATURDAY 3.13.2010 

SYNOPSIS: On this 17 year anniversary of the March 13, 1993 Superstorm (ABC news video archive); much of the eastern U.S. is being lashed by a slow-moving coastal "maelstrom" that more resembles a tropical depression. Throughout today, winds nearing 35 mph and rainfall up to 2 inches is expected across West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. Extensive inland flood warnings are in effect across these areas as well as central and western Pennsylvania. Coastal flooding is occuring along the Carolina coasts, the Chesapeake Bay, DelMarVa and the New Jersey Coast. In addition, much of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and southern New England will bear the full brunt of onshore flow with total rainfall amounts to exceed 4 inches by Sunday. You can monitor details of observed precipitation, river flood status and stage potential at NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service or the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC)

TEAM REPORT ON STORM IMPACTS

Collaborators: Zak Brisko, Daniel Ross, Winterman, PasadenaMatt, Jason, Mr. Foot

RAINFALL: Initial concerns of amounts reaching 4 inches in Maryland have shifted northeast to New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. As shown on this 48 hour projection by the MARFC, total storm rainfall is still expected to range near 2 inches for many areas, but appears to be far less than first anticipated.

WINDS/COASTAL FLOODING: A long duration easterly fetch enhanced by a tightening pressure gradient between the coastal Low and surface High to the north will bring winds above 35 mph for the eastern DelMarVa and New Jersey. Areas west of the Bay and in Pennsylvania should see winds gusting to 35 mph, but sustained at roughly 25 mph. Tides both on the western Bay and along marine coasts appear 2-3 feet above normal.

RIVER FLOODING In dynamic and irregular systems such as this, rainfall amounts can vary widely. Urban flash flooding occurs very quickly, with stream channels often rising by several feet within minutes. Larger rivers of course take longer to reach flood stage, and usually well after the storm has moved on. Continue monitoring the latest river levels at your local Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service sites.

10:45 PM FRIDAY 3.12.2010  During this dangerous and widespread spring rainstorm, please heed this advice from the National Weather Service: Turn Around Don't Drown.

SITE UPDATE: The URL will remain http://www.footsforecast.blogspot.com/. Once this rain event has ended, we plan to make http://www.footsforecast.us/ the primary public site, however anyone attempting to visit  .org will automatically be redirected to .us.

A complicated, multi-pronged area low pressure of low pressure is crawling through the Tennessee Valley. On deck for Saturday is a developing easterly fetch laden with moisture, combining with the upper level influence of short waves rotating around a low in the southern Plains. Add to this the regular daytime heating effect, and areas of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic may see brief torrential downpours from "popcorn" variety thunderstormss. A second set of strong to severe storms from a secondary coastal low will produce conditions similar to a weak tropical storm. Winds by Saturday may reach 35 mph, with rainfall amounts in central Virginia across central Maryland and into the DelMarVa exceeding 4 inches. Up to 4 inches likely from the WV panhandle through southern PA to New York City. Source: Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Precipitation Maps.

Our forecasters are also closely monitoring any potential for development of tornados in the Severe Storm Zone, including the Carolinas, southern Georgia and Florida. Links to NWS advisories and warnings are included or posted on this page as needed.

STORM & ADVISORY SYNOPSIS

Significant river and urban flash flooding possible in all areas denoted on the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) map shown. Areas where significant flooding is possible or likely extend from portions of West Virginia into Central VA, much of MD, southern and eastern PA, all of DE and NJ and into southern New York.

NOAA/NWS PRECIP & FLOOD DATA

Potomac: Point of Rocks, MD | Paw Paw, MD
Mid-Atlantic: RFC Hydrometeorological Discussion
HPC: 12-36 Hour Short Range | QPF Discussion |
MAPS: Watches & Warnings | 48-hour MD-VA precip | HPC Day 1-3

FRIDAY: Rainfall across the Mid-Atlantic may average 0.50 inches by noon, with localized amounts near 0.75 inches. Areas north of Pennsylvania will receive similar bands of moderate to heavy rain arrving in brief squalls by Friday evening.

FRIDAY PM INTO SATURDAY: A brief lull may occur from Friday mid-day to early evening before another round of tropical moisture is activated by upper level shortwave energy. In this second batch, torrential downpours are possible on Saturday, producing an additional 2.0 inches, with many areas exceeding 3.0 inches before daybreak Sunday.

ADDITIONAL UPDATES in progress. Despite the recent site domain name changes, please know your Forecast Team is in constant monitoring of this developing long duration rain event.

Flood City?

2:10PM THURSDAY 3.11.2010 Today will be the final day of a string of pleasant weather. Tonight rain will move in from the south up to PA, and remain light to moderate till afternoon Tomorrow. Rainfall amounts will be around .25-.5" and up to .75" by noon tomorrow for the mid-atlantic. Rain will move into areas north of PA by Tomorrow evening. A break will move into the mid-atlantic before the real action begins late Tomorrow into Saturday afternoon where another 2"+ can fall from south to north. Some area may see up to 4" by the end of this storm. The Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center now has all of the area from Central VA up to Southern NY in a significant river flooding possible with parts of MD, PA, DE, NJ, VA, and WV in significant river flooding likely. This situation will have to be watched very closely from VA up into the NE.

5:00 AM TUESDAY 3.9.2010  Abundant sunshine and mild temperatures dominate parts of the eastern U.S. into Wednesday. As indicated in NOAA's Day 4-5 Quantitative Precipitation Forecast map above, we also must get ready for some "red rain." This Pacific and Gulf-juiced system, which produced the season's first tornado in Oklahoma, is sending a squall line through the southern plains. Details in the Severe Storm Zone. Like many of its recent predecessors, this developing system will drench many states east of the Mississippi with copious rainfall between Wednesday and Sunday. The larger problem for the Mid-Atlantic may be downstream runoff from heavy wet snows in the Northeast.

Any snowcover in central and eastern New York not melted by Thursday will begin melting much more rapidly and wash into streams within the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This upcoming rainfall pattern combined with excessive snowmelt may have a considerable impact on the Susquehanna River and water quality in the Bay itself.

Thankfully the upper air pattern does not support any snowfall from this (1 PM GFS model map  for Friday). Otherwise, we would all be headed to group therapy if the projected 4.9" of liquid over New York City by Sunday had to be calculated using previous snow ratios of 15:1 observed this winter.

Springing Forward
DAYLIGHT SAVINGS: SUNDAY 3/14 - 2:00 am 

7:30 AM MON 3.8.2010 

As Forecaster Winterman noted on last night's facebook update, it is hard to sign off from the first nice weekend for most.  For "spring-a-lings" each day gets better from here, a rising sun angle and climatology is turning the corner. For example, Philadelphia's average high for March is 51 F, so things are looking up. If you need perspective on how smacked those in the Mid-Atlantic were last month, Mr. Frank Roylance at the Baltimore Sun assembled a nice report on February 2010 snow data at BWI Thurgood Marshall Airport. For powderhounds, it is a feast of data not to be soon forgotten. Sometimes, I still can't believe all that happened, as if it was some Oscar-bound societal drama written by Stephen King.

WHAT ABOUT THE WEATHER?  Though tranquil for the eastern U.S. presently, that looks to change by mid-week. Cooler and rainy conditions arrive starting Tuesday: First for the Tennessee Valley, then the Southeast, followed by the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. Ahead of possible thunderstorms later this week, student meteorologists Daniel R. and James H. attending the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) are helping build out the Severe Storm Zone.

To stay fresh on your daily regional weather 411, monitor your zone, or send an email directly to the forecaster. During this late winter intermission, we are refining all forecast zones, standardizing procedures and planning new content such as the Watershed Collaborative, a variety of Spring & Sports features - and the Hurricane Zone, a seasonal focus since Fall 2004.

IMPORTANT MESSAGE

10:00 PM FRIDAY 3.5.2010 Starting tonight, we are changing where the site domain name (www.footsforecast.org) points to in preparation for a new website under development. The web address will remain http://www.footsforecast.org/, but for the next 24 hours it will point to our new hosting server which redirects your brower to a new location. This change should be seamless, quick and most won't even notice. In the event this switch takes longer than expected, you will be able to access the site at its original address: http://www.footsforecast.blogspot.com/  -Techcaster Evan

 
8:15 AM FRIDAY 3.5.2010  Happy Friday everyone! Although a bit breezy, today will "set the pace" for a very nice weekend across the eastern half of the country, with "sunny and 50" becoming the general rule for most of us by Saturday afternoon. Temperature map from Air Sports Net Weather.

TODAY

Southeast (TN, GA, SC):
Sunny, mid to upper 50's.

Ohio - Tennessee valleys:
Cool, sunny but windy.
40-45 north, near 50 south.

Mid-Atlantic:
Partly sunny, highs near 50.

Northeast: Cloudy, chilly and breezy, low to mid 40's.

This afternoon, we'll take an early look at next week to start identifying when this first nice stretch may end, and if there are any March shenanigans beyond that - as outlined in the Long Range Zone.

"Late last night..."

Lyrics from Mrs. O'Leary's Cow about the 1871 Great Chicago Fire

5:30 PM WED 3.3.2010
Rain showers continue across the area as the rotating bands of a deepening oceanic low pressure exit the Mid-Atlantic region this evening. All shower activity should end around 9 pm tonight. However, grey skies will persist overnight, which will offset cooler temperatures brought on by the northwesterly flow which often follows an exiting low pressure system. All of this may sound dreary, but no worries. Sunny skies and much milder temperatures are lining across the eastern U.S. this weekend - the first nice one of it's kind in quite some time! - update by Forecaster Dakota   

8:00 AM 3.3.2010
TODAY: Brief periods of wet snow mixed with rain are possible this morning along the I-95 corridor, DelMarVa, central/eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and into southern New England. This due to potential "wrap-around" snow as the coastal system, a surprisingly low 984 mb at 4:00 AM, deepens while racing offshore. "Upslope" snow showers are likely across the Blue Ridge as colder air replacing the departing low is dragged up the mountains, encountering residual moisture skimmed from the Great Lakes.

HMM.. SNOW IN NY STATE So why did snow move into New York State, when that was not part of the plan?  A little canary in the coal mine overlooked until too late. Know the old song about the Great Chicago Fire? "Late last night, while we were all in bed, Old Mother Leary left a lantern in the shed, and when the cow kicked it over, she winked her eye and said, 'there'll be a HOT time in old town tonight...' "

THE ANALOGY: We saw the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) might display a shift toward neutral in the March 1-3 period as shown on the 7-day projection. That roughly translates into a 50-100 mile drift in an eventual storm track, a factor not accounted for in the forecast. Granted our meteorology colleagues would remind that a plethora of other factors contributed, including lack of a surface high, recent snowcover and the dynamics of a deepening coastal system. Warm air surged ahead of the storm as it filled the gap created by a lessening NAO-- hence "hot time in the old town tonight."

NEW UPDATING PLAN The team understands many readers check here several times a day, even though future chances of snow are decreasing. For those needing updates on rain and severe weather threats, our proposed post times* may help:

(1) 6:00 - 7:00 AM; (2) 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM;
(3) 4:00 - 5:00 PM; (4) by 9:00 PM and overnight as needed.
*Note: For the "main site," check individual zones for update times.

SEVERE WEATHER When thunderstorms or tornadoes threaten in the eastern U.S., details will be handled in the Severe Weather & Safety Zone to be launched this weekend. Forecaster Daniel Ross,* a meteorology student at Georgia Tech, will lead the collaboration include "meteo" students from the Penn State Team* and the Maryland high school team,* as well as our advisors in Virginia and elsewhere. The weather is not taking a break, so neither will we!  *Many thanks to all for the day and night multi-collaborative efforts on tackling the evolving system.

The Western Pennsylvania Zone

Forecaster Jon Kegges, Penn State University

THE COLD WILL NOT BE HERE FOR LONG
I PROMISE

Last Updated:
10:19 AM 4/9

PITTSBURGH METRO:
(Allegheny)

TODAY(4/9):Mostly cloudy and colder
Highs:  Pittsburgh 48 | Penn Hills 47 | McKeesport  48| Coraopolis 47 | 

TONIGHT:Decreasing clouds
Lows:  Pittsburgh 34 | Penn Hills 33 | Mckeesport  34| Coraopolis 34 | 

SATURDAY:Mostly Sunny and milder
Highs:  Pittsburgh 62 | Penn Hills 60 | Mckeesport  61| Coraopolis 60| 

SUNDAY:Increasing clouds with a slight chance of rain.
 Highs: Pittsburgh 68 | Penn Hills 66 | Mckeesport 65 | Coraopolis 67|



NORTHWEST:
(Erie,Crawford,Warren,Mckean)

TODAY(4/9):Mostly cloudy and colder
Highs:  Erie 44| Meadville 45 | Smethport  44 | Bradford 40|

TONIGHT:Decreasing cloudiness
Lows:  Erie 32|  Meadville 33 | Smethport 30 | Bradford 29 |

SATURDAY:Abundant sunshine
Highs:  Erie 55| Meadville 54 | Smethport 56 | Bradford 50|

SUNDAY:Rain showers and turning milder
Highs:   Erie 60| Meadville 62 | Smethport 61|Bradford  58|


INTERSATE-80 CORRIDOR:
(Mercer,Venango,Forest,Clarion,Jefferson,Elk,Cameron)


TODAY(4/9):Most;y cloudy and colder
Highs: Mercer 43 |  Franklin 44 |  Clarion 41 |  Toinesta 48  | Emporium 45|

TONIGHT:Becoming clearer and cold
Lows: Mercer 34| Franklin 33| Clarion 32 | Tionesta 33 | Emporium 31|

SATURDAY:Mostly Sunny
Highs: Mercer 54| Franklin 55 | Clarion 52 | Tionesta 54| Emporium 54|

SUNDAY:Rain showers and warmer
Highs: Mercer 60| Franklin 61 | Clarion 60| Tionesta 61| Emporium 62|

WEST:
(Lawrence,Beaver,Butler,Washington,Greene,Brooke,Ohio)

TODAY(4/9):Mostly Cloudy and colder
Highs:  New Castle 47 | Butler 48 | Beaver 46 | Washington 48 | Waynesburg 47 |

TONIGHT:Clearing out
Lows:   New Castle 34 | Butler 32 | Beaver 33| Washington 36 | Waynesburg 35 |

SATURDAY:  Mostly Sunny and milder
Highs: New Castle 61 | Butler 60| Beaver 60 | Washington 61 | Waynesburg 62 |

SUNDAY:Increasing clouds with a chance of rain
Highs: New Castle 66|  Butler 67 | Beaver 66 | Washington 65 | Waynesburg 66|

LAUREL HIGHLANDS:
(Armstrong,Cambria,Fayette,Garrett,Indiana,Somerset,Westmoreland)

TODAY(4/9):Mostly Cloudy
Highs: Latrobe 48 | Indiana 49 | Ebensburg 46 | Kittaning 44 | Somerset 47 |
Oakland 49 |

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds
Lows: latrobe 35 | Indiana 34 | Ebensburg 32 | Kittaning 31 | Somerset 33 |
Oakland 36 |

SATURDAY:Mostly Sunny and milder
Lows: Latrobe 60| Indiana 61 | Ebensburg 60 |Kittaning 58 | Somerset 62 |    
Oakland 63 |

SUNDAY:Mostly Clear with clouds moving in later in the day
Highs: Latrobe 69 | Indiana 68 | Ebensburg 65 | Kittaning 64 | Somerset 67 |  Oakalnd 70 |

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
(Days 4-6......and beyond)

The cold air that moved in last night will not be staying long.  We will have to deal with clouds today but as we head into SATURDAY things start to clear up and the temperatures will once again be above normal.  Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 60's with some places reaching the low to mid 70's for MONDAY AND TUESDAY. The beginning of the work week also looks dry!