Welcome to Philmageddon 2011

or

"It's the size of Texas, Mr. President."

- A scientist reporting on a fictional asteroid in the film Armageddon.

4:30 PM EST TUESDAY 2/1/2011 February has arrived in force, and it is not exactly a "fantastic one" for millions of us. Instead of a nice gentle snowfall, Mother Nature's wrath has prompted our readers to vote on this event being no less than "Philmageddon* 2011." This event is quite simply becoming the most widespread storm to impact travel, schools and public safety in 40 years. Half the U.S. population will be directly affected for remainder of the week. The extent of just the "ice" portion of the storm will encompass an area larger than the state of Texas.

Winter Storm Warnings posted by individual NWS offices, convey the incredible expanse of this storm  across a 2,000+ mile transect from Albuquerque, New Mexico to Augusta, Maine. Links below:

BLIZZARD WARNINGS:  9 STATES WINTER STORM WARNINGS: 21 STATES

TORNADO WATCH: MOST OF LOUISIANA | CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI  

Scroll to the next section for our multi-state team roundup.
A new lead story is in progress, check back for updates.

A devastating ice storm and blizzard conditions will impact  a giant swath of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, while an outbreak of severe weather is expected in the Southeast, according to the NOAA Storm Prediction Center. Blizzard Warnings are rampant from Michigan through Metro Chicago traversing the Mississippi & Missouri River Valleys all the way to central Oklahoma, with snowfall of 8 to 20 inches expected. Elsewhere, Winter Storm Warnings cover the rest of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and now extending from Nebraska and Iowa, clear into the far reaches of the Northeast.

For airline commuters The real impact of this storm is understood by travel warriors: When Chicago's O'Hare goes down, so will your travel plans...big time. Monitor flight delays from this interactive portal by the FAA. Hundreds of flights heading to Chicago from distant airports are already being canceled across the country. Closely monitor your flight status, as these reports are changing by the minute as conditions deteroriate.

For suburban homeowners & city residents: We urge you to take time if possible to clear your storm drains of any snow, and create a "channel" for runoff to follow. Please do your part to keep children and pets indoors during this storm. Let's not have headlines about people taking the dog for a walk or getting the mail in an ice storm... and not coming back.

*This is a reference to the famed prognosticator, Punxsutawney Phil and his mid-winter predictions from a quaint and classic northwest Pennsylvania town, anticipated tomorrow among the sheets of ice.

"A heavy load on a long journey"

- from Confucius, the 6th Century BCE Chinese sage & writer

9:30 PM EST Monday 1/31/2011 - The system that will be responsible for giving the central and eastern U.S. this heavy load (of precipitation) as we trek down this long journey is moving into the Sierra Nevadas and southern Rockies as shown in this infra-red satellite animation from the Penn State e-Wall. Models are trending toward a widespread, high-impact event featuring severe and winter weather to cover a significant portion of the country east of the Missippippi. This impending "Groundhog Week" weather event will bring a lot of the Gulf Of Mexico with it, as the southern jet stream fueling a strong on-shore flow of moisture over the southern states before the storm even arrives.

THE REAL ISSUE? In advance of the student team statement to be issued later today on this storm, our Forecaster Advisors want to underline these core concerns:

1. For  those along and north of US-40 from Maryland to the Mid-West, please note that computer models, though very advanced these days, still have trouble with the influence of surface layer temperatures when there is extensive snow cover.

2. Building on the snowcover concern, and with a low sun angle still present, this will enhance the "local" supply of cold air at the surface prior to arrival of precip on Monday in the Mid-West, and by Tuesday morning in the Mid-Atlantic.

3. The real issue is clear: Instead of snow or sleet changing to rain Monday night or Tuesday morning, our Advisory Team believes the real outcome will be a large portion of the Mid-Atlantic faces a surprise and long duration ice event to encompass most of Tuesday into Wednesday. School district officials, administrators, emergency and transportation managers alike are strongly advised to closely monitor NWS statements as this system approaches.

"Philmageddon 2011"

(as voted by the readers... unless you  are tired of the 'mageddon' analogy)

The rough guide to current ideas being discussed in the team as displayed on computer model projections. (Example: the NOAA Global Forecast System [GFS] model imagery for 8AM Tuesday morning). An regional summary of our storm impact projections in advance of the student's team statement later today.

1. SOUTHEAST & TENNESSEE VALLEY Starting Monday and continuing to Tuesday night, torrentially heavy rain, strong thunderstorms and an extensive outbreak of tornadoes - followed by flash flooding as rivers and waterways rapidly rise Monday night into Tuesday. A link to our Southeast Team in Facebook for a look ahead to the severe weather possibilities.

2. CENTRAL STATES & OHIO VALLEY A long duration, high-impact and potentially paralyzing ice/sleet and rain scenario is expected in the Monday to Wednesday time frame.  Heavy snow is expected along and north of Interstate 70. Blizzard Watches are already posted for Northern Illinois, with Winter Storm Watches already encompassing much of the Central U.S.

3. MID-ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST In the Mid-Atlantic south of I-80, a front end period of snow or sleet may transition to freezing rain by mid-morning Tuesday, North of I-80, we expect all precipitation to be snow and may be extremely hearain - producing high rainfall amounts and potential flooding. Northern states from Pennsylvania to New Jersey and into the entire Northeast are facing "the first insult" of February, as there is increasing probability of high snowfall accumulations over a very large area from eastern Pennsylvania north to Maine.

THEN... IT GETS WORSE Following passage of this major event, the CPC Day 6-10 temperature outlook shows an increasing probability that nearly 90% of the lower 48 status will experience temperatures notably below normal. The simple interpretation is this: Whatever falls this week, is going to stay frozen on the ground for several weeks into February. (Don't even look at the Day 8-14 temp outlook, it's not any better)

The Forecast team has been working diligently this evening on developing reports for each of those regions, and will update as soon as possible. Our analyses include a wide range of data products from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Penn State e-Wall, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) among others.

Continue monitoring the Winter Stormcast Zone on this site and in facebook for our latest projections on this next winter weather nightmare. (Advisors Lear and Foot, Forecasters Winterman and Jason M.