"Coldplay" followed by storm days?

12:25 PM EST Saturday Friday 1.21.2011 SITE MESSAGE: For direct access to the latest reports provided by your local Foot's Forecast team, please click "Forecast Centers" in the tab above. An overview of scenarios for another potential winter storm in the Eastern U.S. is posted in our Winter Stormcast Zone, accessible via the tab directly above.

SYNOPSIS Mother Nature has left open the icebox in her kitchen, allowing a major surge of Arctic air to flood the eastern U.S. in the next several days. The cold wave is courtesy of a weak but cold 1023 mb millibar high pressure system which had been parked in central Canada prior to departure of the Ohio Valley to Northeast snow event. Bitterly cold air has swept south, to deliver overnight lows in the 20's all the way to Orlando, FL.

WESTERN U.S. In the Pacific Northwest, recent heavy rains in Washington state prompted NWS Flood Warnings for the Green and Cedar rivers in the Seattle-Tacoma area. Overall, the western U.S. overall will finally catch a break from recent pattern of frequent high-impact storms. Light snow has moved from the northern Cascades to Montana, and temperatures in the region are returning to seasonal norms. Even weather in central Arizona and the Phoenix metro area, which has experienced an unusual winter thus far, is resuming to its traditional role as "the Valley of the Sun" with temperatures in the week ahead holding in the 70's.

LOOKING AHEAD The real "Coldplay" will be frigid temperatures to overtake the eastern half of the country today to next Monday. Morning lows in the teens are observed as far south as Nashville, TN. Even places like Tampa-St. Petersburg will struggle into the 60's this weekend, which is relatively chilly for that area. Morning lows both Saturday and Sunday will feature breath-stopping cold enough to make your eyes water, with single-digit AM temps in central U.S. locations such as Lincoln, NE. (image from Old Hickory, TN NWS Forecast Office)

SITE SWITCH 411 Starting today, you will notice changes occuring between this site and our original .org site. Our Web Team will be conducting a "re-direct" of this blogspot site to replace the content on footsforecast.org. This notice explains the rationale behind this switch, which may take between 12 and 24 hours in some locations as servers and internet providers adjust. Our forecasts will continue unaffected in facebook and published on this site as usual - with expansion of zones planned early next week. (Advisors Mr. Foot and Mr. Lear)

77 comments:

Julie said...

Cracking up at the comments from the earlier threads. Wanted to like several but couldn't for lack of smileys but you guys made me laugh. I had plenty to read and catch up on cause I spent half the nite in Labor & Delivery for false alarm. Thought sure we'd get a blizzard just because I went in. Woke up to a powder sugar coating in my 'hood. Blah. FAITH IN THE FLAKES

Julie said...

I love that the "more winter storms" line on the map falls just in the middle of my county AACO aka SNOWHOLE. also love the fact that as I stated before I am due in March and accuweather mentions wintry events to last into April.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/44657/bastardi-forecast-for-rest-of.asp

Cathy in Bel Air said...

Julie, My daughter was born in February, 1977, and we had plenty of snow that January and February. When I left for the hospital there was 14" of snow in our driveway! The next year for her birthday she got the "Blizzard of 1978". To this very day we still laugh about her not having a BD party for the first few years of her life because of snow! Don't worry, everything will be just fine :)

Rufus said...

Any ideas on tuesday wed?

Julie hope you are feeling better. A friend just delivered 2 weeks early...and was told it was a girl and it was a boy LOL! But he's healthy and they have 3 girls.

Lori said...

I feel like I'm in labor & delivery waiting on each storm to come. I may need an epidural soon...

Julie said...

lol Lorie!

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

Tuesday Wednesday has to be watched carefully. Right now if you take most model runs verbatim, we will have between 3-4 inches of liquid WOW WOW WOW!!!!!! Also, at least 70% of that for Baltimore area is flooding rain. If the storm track shifts east it would be an ULTRA ULTRA ULTRA KAHUNA.. This is a very close call and needs to be watched.

Rufus said...

I'm hearing on Henry's fan(from poster's) page it will be mostly snow...but the heavy hit is Central PA. It's way too early it will change a few times and still change at the lat minute. Read state college saying the lower tracks over the mouth the Chesapeake...that's where the central pa hit came from. will be a very interesting weekend :) Andy WOW WOW WOW is not the same without ur :<O :<O <:O :O :O...however it's made LOL

Rob said...

Lets hope it shifts east!!

HoCoKtchr said...

I am cracking up at some of the earlier posts too Julie! I think you should go ahead and just have the baby...maybe that is what we need for us to actually get a measurable snowfall! C'mon...take one for the team! :) (insert smiley!!!)

Waiting somewhat patiently for news on the new storm coming Tues or Wed!

And...trying to wait patiently for the switchover to the new site! It is very exciting. Thanks to all on the FF Team for your hard work!

Rufus said...

Julie ya want me to go get a fruit parfait and a double cheeseburger off the $ menu , that was what I got my friend on wed...she had false labor thursday ...then real labor on Sat.

I hope the foil is in place over the snow blower.

Rufus said...

Just noticed the moon rising...very cool through the clouds....yep Andy it looks like winter. when it's this cold out the back porch really is a great fridge. Just pulled some wine out of the fridge.

Have a great night can't wait till the transfer is complete

Julie said...

I just left Costco where the sample lady said I should get a sonogram I am way too huge for needing to go 5 more weeks. Hmmmm Tues/Wed? It's times like these we need our pics of Manwich and :o

HoCoKtchr said...

Well, if the Costco lady said it...it must be true!

Tuesday will be it! I can feel it!

If you have plenty of tp, milk, bread and Manwich...it will be BABY TIME! Oh, and plenty of beer and wine for once you return from the hospital!!!

Jen - Red Lion said...

Gosh he's my favorite

http://www.accuweather.com/video/1668543276/state-college-pa--we-will-ha.asp

I'm praying to the snow gods that this storm hits....For all of us! Not just central PA. MDer's..you deserve a biggie for all the let down's you've had...Let's hope! Still too early though....so much can happen.

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

This storm looks very amped up. The blocking is weak. I am not excited about this, but who knows? This looks like heavy rain/sleet/pockets of freezing rain ending has snow. The storm will be significant, but if you like heavy snow I caution you on this one. We will have to wait till later in the weekend to know for sure, but this reeks of rain and ice with heavy mountain snows, it is a VERY warm (plaster like)snowstorm if we eek out a mix of snow.

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=21202

NWS forecast for Baltimore is now introducing rain or snow.

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

Down to 11.8 degrees here, very cold. We all know how bad the models have been, and my analysis is an extrapolation from the models so don't be discouraged by what I think based on CURRENT DATA. Data will change. I just urge caution with this type of a set-up. It honestly has an equal chance of being a slopfest or driving rainstorm. I wish we had a more concise answer, but this will be very close to all or nothing in terms of snow. Our Friends in Frederick and points west have a much better chance to see all or mostly snow.

Jen - Red Lion said...

Not us though, still snow...I'm hopeful but not getting my hopes up

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

Jen, I would be carefull with this one for us too. Could be snow sleet rain and heavy rain also. The trends are getting VERY UGLY. We need to watch this. State College would do well but we MAY be in trouble.

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

Things keep trending west. We really need the high pressure to hold or we are in BIG BIG trouble if you like snow. Plenty of time so don't panic yet.

Jen - Red Lion said...

I totally agree. Either way, snow, sleet or rain, it's a monster however it turns out. I'd prefer the snow part of it honestly....going to be interesting to see who the winner of this one is...if there is a winner..

Leslie said...

Andy, you're flipping me out!

Julie, I feel your pain. I was in and out of labor with my twins in 2004, the summer of the 3 hurricanes. That year I learned that those babies know when they are coming, no matter what everybody else thinks! Hang in there!!

Julie said...

So if this is a rain event is it bad? Or Bad cause we want snow and its' not looking that way? Thanks everyone for the thoughts we'll see she's coming one way or another!

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

Not happy with the position of the high. This should go from snow to rain and very HEAVY RAIN. We should get a winter storm watch, and flood watch out of this. This is looking like an inland runner. I am very disappointed with the trends concerning this event. I will see what if anything there is that would pop up that could salvage this threat for us. Like I said, the models do stink this year but all are trending toward mostly rain and I don't know how to paint a better picture. There will be low level cold from the current artic air mass but that would give us a period of heavy freezing rain over to plain rain. This winter I tell you.

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

I want to see how the global models at 0Z tonight handle this system before putting the nail in the snow coffin. We have time to see if something unusual pops up that could provide a glimmer of hope. We need the storm to come in fast so that high doesn't exit off the coast of things will get toasty. We have a need for speed.

Zach said...

Andy - I'm no meteorologist, but if there is one thing I can tell from this winter it is that pretty much everything we think is going to happen 5 days out changes 2 days out, and then changes 5 hours out. I think we should just wait, and hope for a massive snow storm! :)

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

I agree with you because I'm not a met either by an stretch. What concerns me is we are getting into these thread the needle events for our region. If things do not line up perfectly at the right moment its snowstorm cancel. I will hold off on any judgment because this year has been full of surprises at the last second, or plain model error with constant flip flops. We are wait and see. I just try and look at trends as they come. With the storm on Tuesday, we are a full 3 days away before it arrives. We have to watch it closely. I have not closed the book, but am pointing out some problems that are rearing their ugly heads.

Zach said...

Let's just hope this storm actually works out in or favor!

Rob said...

Wow it is down right frigid outside, dress warm folks!!!

Anonymous said...

I have noticed also that the models have been wayyy off on temps as of late. Case in point, last weeks ice storm. Temps were anywhere between 7 to 10 degrees colder at the surface than what models had forecast. Last night, Euro was modeled 10 degrees warmer with the low temp. With these trends, I wouldn't worry too much about temps yet, but the fact there is a massive storm shown in the next week. Taken the models verbatim, we do need a shift of about 50 to 100 miles east for this to be the ultra x3 Kahuna

Chris said...

NWS sees something of great concern next week since they are running recon missions in the pacific to gather data for the impending snow storm. And there is a high priority for gathering this data.

Julie said...

its so cold out there I don't wanna go out but have too :(

BioPat said...

Good Morning all, I have been having difficulty posting in the comment form, so we'll see if I am successful today.
Ths approaching system is huge, but as everyone has noted the models this year have been all over the place so difficult to use for any type of accuracy. My students are going crazy as we can't seem to nail anything until its right on top of us. I agree with Andy; we need to watch this system closely. A large rain event would/could turn to be a mix of just about everything nature has to offer. I do believe I would prefer the snow.
Julie, good luck; watch the barometric pressure readings when it begins to bottom out you could be on your way to the hospital for the real thing!!

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

Medium range computer forecast models continue to indicate that a
major winter storm *may* threaten the region late Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week. Although the storm threat is still beyond
72 hours...heavy snow and strong winds are a distinct possibility
over a large portion of central Pennsylvania given many deterministic
solutions and a majority of ensemble forecast system output. A
smaller percentage of solutions show a weaker storm pulling out to
sea off of the middle Atlantic coast...resulting in far less snowfall
for Pennsylvania. Monitor forecasts throughout the weekend and
early next week for the latest information on this potential
storm. For now will mention 35-45 percent high chance probability of precipitation. Temperatures
will remain below normal.

BioPat said...

Andy, just read your comments and justin Berk's as well. The 2 models are quite different. As you nted one indicates a direct hit with plenty of snow and wind; but the other another miss with the storm out to sea. I'm hoping the trend will change and give us some snow with this event, but it's all about time and observations this far away from the event. In the meantime, there's always football!

Rufus said...

Football and yummy snacks to go along with it.

Fun to track the event but I'm almost ignoring it until monday LOL! If this turns into a huge ice storm or flood it will be tragic...and I'm talking about us not getting the snow we want I'm talking about all the bad implications that comes with heavy ice accumulations. As we always do prepare for the worst just in case.

BP I'm having trouble too I just have to remember to sign into my google before I come here because this sight doesn't recognize my password as correct. We'll figure it out :)

HoCoKtchr said...

The DC mets/weather readers said that there was a 500 mile difference in the models!

I agree that it will take until at least Monday....and even then, we probably still won't know! I am guessing it is another "now time" call! As usual! :)

And btw, I found that I can sign in easier for comments if I go to the Name/URL choice and my old HoCoKtchr comes up as I start to type it! :) Yea, something familiar!!!

BioPat said...

OK HoCo, I'll give this a shot with my old passwrod info.
I think it is interesting with this very cold weekend which follows 40* weather that we will see enough warming to produce flooding rains. I agree if we do take a hit and it is not snow, we will be in deep trouble. I generally choose to prepare for worst case scenarios - I think I previously stated, I still have a 5 gl jug of H2O from Y2K.

BioPat said...

Oops, my husband just reminded me the adult beverage supply may need to be replenished if we are preparing for worst case situations. However, generator is functioning, batteries are ready, and flash lights are well placed.
I do hope when FF moves back to the .org site we will have the reply/like function back in place. This comment section is cumbersome.

Rufus said...

BP Adult beverages very important :) Not liking the potential of 2inches of rain with everything frozen....many of the tributaries are icy.... Even though I'm ruling out notions until i still like to read all the thoughts on this one.

Andy my word is manly...thought of you instantly LOL!

Julie said...

I was at the grocery store and saw a can of Manwich and thought of Andy. Strange that I can't look at Manwich the same. For some reason I am always signed in and never have to use a password? Weird.

HoCoKtchr said...

Most of the DC mets are calling for a large coastal storm...and not really going into if it might be rain or snow....too early to commit, I know!

Hmmm....will be fun to watch it develop! I guess everyone should go get some Manwich...just in case! Glad to know there is still some in the stores! :)

Rufus said...

Maybe buy it by the case we can distribute it tomorrow and monday :)

IMO it is too early to predict amounts and precip type(s. It's just fun to listen to what the models have to say. Any news from any of the recon flights into this one?

Anonymous said...

Can't figure out how to post without being anonymous but this is Ho Co Sub (seems like I did it once? not sure how).

Thought y'all might like this ... easier to read/understand than usual, the NWS discussion.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST WAS SPENT LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM TUE INTO WED. THIS WINTER HAS FEATURED MANY COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEMS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE THAT HAD A POTENTIAL TO IMPACT
THE AREA. OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THESE PHASING
SYSTEMS POORLY SO FAR THIS WINTER...RESULTING IN LOWER THAN NORMAL
MODEL SKILL AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE MORE THAN A COUPLE DAYS OUT.
THE UPCOMING TUE-WED SYSTEM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE TRACK
OF THE LOW /WHICH DEPENDS ON THE TIMING AND OCCURRENCE OF PHASING
BETWEEN SRN AND NRN STREAM DISTURBANCES/ AND THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF THE SFC HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BE CRITICAL
IN DETERMINING THE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND THE PTYPE. IT IS TOO EARLY
ATTM TO NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFICS AS THE PRIMARY NRN STREAM ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING STORM IS STILL NEAR THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE MODELS HOPEFULLY WILL CAPTURE THIS ENERGY BETTER ONCE
IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA TNGT INTO SUN.

AS STATED ABOVE...THE WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDES A WIDE
RANGE OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE WRN-TRACK SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM /TOWARD THE END OF ITS RUN/ AND GEM HAVE A
TRACK OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE APPALACHIAN SPINE THAT WOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT. THE ERN-MOST SOLUTION THAT THE 12Z GFS
PORTRAYS HAS A TRACK WELL OFF THE COAST...SAVING THE AREA FROM A
DIRECT IMPACT. THE MEAN OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS A SOLUTION SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
RUN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THERE IS A EWD TREND IN THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. GIVEN LATEST TRENDS AND SPREAD IN GUIDANCE...DO NOT FEEL
THAT INCREASING POPS IS WARRANTED. HAVE ALSO TRIED TO DETERMINE
MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH NOW
APPEARS TO BE LATE TUE INTO WED.

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THIS STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA WILL DEPEND
ON PRIOR EVENTS WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE PAC
NW JET STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE EVEN INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS HOLDING
FIRM. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

Anne said...

Ok... Anonymous.. I'm several glasses into my red.. and wondering what the heck I just read??? What does this all mean. Feel like I'm reading an alien language. Maybe it's the wine. Or the whine... I want SNOW:)

Rufus said...

Personally I think it means they don't want to hazard a guess on the track, time or precip type it's too far out. They (NWS) is just discussing all the possible scenarios. They type with abbreviated words...most of them I get some of them not so much :)

Anne can you pass the wine :)

Mary said...

You all are so funny. I love reading all these posts. I too think of Andy when I saw the manwich at the grocery store today. I really hope this one pans out for us. I am ready for a nice big snow. Scared of what would happen if we got a lot of rain on this frozen ground. 7 degrees at my house right now.

I can't seem to get my Mary in Hydes to come up with my name anymore

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

The evolution of this system cannot be cured with wine alone. Prescription pain killers may be the only way to go.

We lack a strong high pressure and temps will be a huge problem regardless of track.

Solutions

1) tons of moisture in the form of mix to heavy rain.

2) East track with light wet snows or mix, max 2-4 inches

This one is pretty much said and done. This is not our storm. The cold will stay, and storms will persist. I look forward to February and chances for a real snowstorm.

It's 4th and 20 so time to punt. Even if we get a miracle first down we are down 28-7 in the 4th quarter and we have reached the 2 minute warning. There is little in this synoptic set-up that could give us warning criteria snow. At best we get a Winter Storm Watch over to a winter weather advisory, or a flood watch. It is a no win with this storm.

Jen - Red Lion said...

I can't say were done just off the latest 00z NAM...I will call it 4th and 20 probably tomorrow night or Monday once it gets closer...still hanging on one thread of hope here.

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

The upper air pattern with this system is just too poor for snow. This type of system will torch the upper levels of the atmosphere with strong warm air advection. We may get a very brief period of sow and freezing rain, but the surface will warm to get all rain. We are between a chance of heavy rain or a lighter mix scenario. This is not a snowstorm for us based on this set-up.

Anne said...

Gosh darn it Andy.. now I'm going to have to drink more wine to get over this!!! Seriously! Thank goodness Canaan Valley is a mere 4hours drive and they always have great snow. We're headed in February.. so I'll get my snow fix one way or another.

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

0 nam is heavy rain. Nam is always too wound up so I don't buy it, but it show heavy rain up and down the coast unless you are in the mountains. Wisp would do well.

Jen - Red Lion said...

Andy...the keyword..."Based on this setup"..it's the NAM....can't rely on that this early..

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

Not the NAM per say but the entire set-up is very bad. Regardless of what model you look at it is not a major snow producer for this region. The heavier QPF scenarios would be rain as they are derived from a more western track, low qpf scenarios would be all snow but 2-4 inch type of event. Without a high in the right position warm air advection wins. This one is over. I want to be wrong but I can't see how it is possible to have a snowstorm from this event.

Jen - Red Lion said...

I see where you're coming from, but this will be the first time I am hoping you're wrong ;)

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

NWS BALT WASH

As stated above...the wide range of model solutions provides a wide
range of possible impacts from this system. The western-track solutions
such as the 12z NAM /toward the end of its run/ and Gem have a
track of the low closer to the appalachian spine that would result
in a mostly rain event. The eastern-most solution that the 12z GFS
portrays has a track well off the coast...saving the area from a
direct impact. The mean of the 12z GFS ensemble members and 12z
European model (ecmwf) shows a solution slightly west of the 12z operational GFS
run...which would lead to the biggest impact with more snow than
rain. Compared to yesterday...there is a eastward trend in the track of
the low. Given latest trends and spread in guidance...do not feel
that increasing probability of precipitation is warranted

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

What the NWS is saying:

In a nutshell, there is little in numerical guidance that shows a significant snow event. The best case scenario would be the euro model version (ECMWF)which had qpf in the range of a 2-4 inch snow, maybe 3-6 ,but ratios would be poor and it would be a very wet pasty snow. That appears to be the best case scenario, and everything else points to much less than that snow wise. That is why I have punted this storm.

Rufus said...

Anne I guess I'll have to open my own bottle...oh wait my outside fridge has some wine(which really is the outdoors cause it's so flipping cold :)

I'm still waiting till Monday to start sticking nails in the snow coffin. Have a great night all

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

0Z gfs came back to a more snowier solution. Shows a Tuesday to Wed event with 3-4 inches of snow. I'll take that over rain.

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

In this winter where models struggle it is hard to make a prediction off of them. It seems based on the 0Z GFS this is a Wed to Thurs system, pushed back a full day. Hence there are different players on the field. It's all about timing. Based on this run we are talking about a different storm all together. I will just sit back and watch this GAME unfold. I only know one thing, that is ALL of the models are wrong and what will happen will not resemble what is being modeled now. Mary, I have plenty of Manwich, just need A storm to pan out!

Anonymous said...

I dont get it! Andy you say that if we get rain its going to be 2 inches plus! but than u say if we get snow it will only be 2 inches! which one is it?! if we get rain its going to be a lot! if we get snow its going to be alot! that is all!

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

As I went outside I realized I have a solid 4 inch snow pack. The first layer is 2 solid frozen inches of concrete, then topped of with 2 inches of powder. It is also 4 degrees outside. All and all I should not complain about this January so far. It is colder and snowier than last. When I drive into MD toward Baltimore there is nothing on the ground. That is just amazing. It is a totally different world up here snow wise. I hope you guys get hammered with something. We have a nice snow pack here from all of the nickel and dime events and constant cold where it has not melted Let's get some more snow your way!

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

Anonymous,

That is based on all of the computer model runs. The latest run is changing this storm entirely. It is basically another storm that forms and tracks at a slightly later time which changes EVERYTHING if the 0Z GFS is right. We are no longer talking about Monday and Tuesday but Wednesday and Thursday. Now with the new system there is ANOTHER high pressure that is in a BETTER position and stronger. This is why I don't trust the models. This is a different evolution and timing.

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

Really we might as well throw forecast darts at a dart board with these models this year. You can't make a forecast from them. We are looking at a Wednesday and Thursday storm per the 0Z GFS. No snow Monday or Tuesday now if it is correct.

Chris said...

Seems the southern energy is slower and will pick up the second northern energy. The first northern storm will pass through, and then the second will phase with the southern energy down by New Orleans. If that occurs, it brings in a second high pressure that WILL give us the cold air needed to get bombarded with snow. Models are all trending slower and some mets are now saying this is a Wed night into Thurs event. Should be interesting to see. and now that I previewed my comment, I see Andy has the same idea. good company

BioPat said...

Mornin' all! I've been watching the news and reading all the comments to try and determine just what we may see this week. I do see where this system has lost some forward progress and we will not see anything until Wednesday. Of course, the primary question is what type of precip. I know my students will start the questions on Monday morning about potential for a day off this week; so I better have some type of script together.
I'm definitly in the nowcast camp this year. I'd love to see a snow event, but this year when we've seen multiple tracks the offshore track continues to be predominant. So, that being said, I'll be settling, at least for tomorrow's class discussion, on that scenario. Maybe some rain/snow mix, but that would be it. In the interim, I plan to stay glued to our discssion and study the maps to look for a more favorable outcome. So the generator and water can stay in storage for this week.

Jen - Red Lion said...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS TO 10 OR 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. EVEN WITH ONLY A VERY LIGHT WIND...THIS WILL PUT WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WELL BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A STORM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT THE STORM COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IF SNOW WERE TO OCCUR...THE
TIMING OF ANY SNOW WOULD BE AROUND WEDNESDAY.

Rufus said...

Jen ~ I just chuckled about the snow prediction (they are a little stumped I think)but the low temps I am not laughing at omgoodness...you guys be careful it is supposed to be colder tomorrow than over the weekend. It didn't get as cold last night as I thought it would.

This will be an interesting first part of the week. Jacob gets to sleep in regardless.

Jen - Red Lion said...

10-15 below is nuts...if it gets this cold..I am going to try the frozen bubble trick..lol

Anonymous said...

Rachel from Red Lion, Has anyone seen the forecast discussion for south central PA? They are talking about the potential for a major winter storm. All of this is getting very confusing.

Anonymous said...

Rachel, again...sorry Jen...didn't see your post till after I posted mine. Had a little trouble getting logged in and still am. :) We were just having the discussion that if it gets that cold, will they really send the kids to school in these temps. Dangerously cold for anyone to be out in let alone kids walking or standing outside waiting for the bus. Also, discussing whether hubby will work, considering they are outside all day...

Jen - Red Lion said...

I still think it's way to early to even think what this thing might do. I don't see the BIG snowstorm that we thought was going to happen at first, but I think we get some accumulation...I wanted the big one..the 30" one, lol

Jen - Red Lion said...

I honestly don't see any delays in school. Should it be? I don't know, never had a kid that goes to school with temps this cold...I'm from Florida, lol.

BTW..why not just use the Name/URL thingy instead of logging in...that's what I use.

Rachel-RL said...

@Jen...HAHA! Because I hadn't figured that out yet. lol. Thanks!

Mary said...

Well, I was hoping for a really long weekend, but that doesn't look like it will pan out now. I really don't want rain. So basically we are looking at another storm that really could bring some snow. Any snow is good for me. I'm willing to wait. Looking forward to all the discussion. Thanks Andy for all the insight.

WVMOMMYOF5 said...

Just checking to see if this comment will come through. I am trying to test it before the upcoming week. Hopefully there will be a big enough reason to want to comment, comment comment!!!