Monday, January 24, 2011

Weather whiplash has arrived

NOON Wednesday 1/26/2011 Winter Storm Watches and Warnings have expanded through the Southeast, Mid-South and into the Northeast. Although snow has arrived in the Mid-Atlantic as part of the first pulse of this storm, A second and more significant phase will occur this afternoon as the upper level low over the Mid-South pulls east, and all precipitation changes back to snow by 4 pm along and east of I-81 in Virginia, Maryland, West Virginia and remainder of the Mid-Atlantic northward to New Jersey.

At this time, our team expects a general 5-8" of snow in the southern Mid-Atlantic today, with higher amounts along the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains, as well as in Northern Maryland and Eastern Pennsylvania. Be advised, those areas that see a switchover from rain to snow sooner will see more snow accumulation.
In addition- there are strong indications that significant banding will occur with this second system, with snowfall reaching a rate up to 3, or more, inches per hour. The timing of this event will put this snowfall during the Major Metro rush hours.

Our latest team statements will be posted in the Winter Stormcast Zone. Visit the Forecast Centers tab for direct access to the latest from local teams in the Eastern U.S.


Although surface conditions are just above freezing in many locations throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley, this storm is a classic example of "dynamical cooling." In this case, the storm lacks a nearby surface high to produce cold air at the onset. In place of that normal mesoscale arrangement, the upper level low associated with this system is able to "generate" cold air as the entire system moves north.


CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: Widespread Winter Storm Warnings are posted for the Tennessee Valley, Northern Alabama and most of Kentucky and expanded from the Shenandoah & Blue Ridge mountains into Central Maryland.

Warnings also extend through much of the Northeast Corridor of I-95 from the Delaware Valley, with Watches for later stages of the storm tonight posted from southern Hudson River Valley and southern New England. The Bayshore region of Eastern Maryland and Delaware has warnings to the north, with warmer temperatures preventing snowfall for much of the day, thus Salisbury and south to the Virginia peninsula have Winter Weather Advisories or will see plain rain today.


Our team would like to point out that closer to the coast, lower snow-to-liquid ratios given warmer temperatures may reduce snow totals. Our Winter Stormcast Team will collaborate this afternoon and update as necessary.
We will post here as well as on
Facebook

Our previous lead story from 1/24/2011:
"See land as a community
to which we belong."
- Aldo Leopold in Sand County Almanac

However brutally bone-chilled or bundled up we are, this frigid swath of storms and cold shows how weather can unite us all across many landscapes. The 110 degree contrast* in temperatures across the nation over the weekend is supports a theme millions of us could agree on: We are cold and sick and tired of being cold! (*A Friday afternoon high of 80 F in Miami followed by a Saturday morning low of -30 F in Central Minnesota.)

So to distract you from the reality that just one month of winter has elapsed - we encourage you to warm up with an inspiring book about warmer days ahead. For anyone who wants to volunteer or work in the environmental movement, Sand County Almanac is essentially required reading. For age-appropriate reading with children about scientific ideas, gander on over to the U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER) website. There is a delightful children's "Schoolyard Series" focusing on a youth perspective to topics of Water, Carbon, Biodiversity and the Oceans.

Will the next round of storms permit eastern U.S. school children and their parents or caregivers time to curl up with these and other literary works? If long range climate indicators hold true to their projections, and you are a "powderhound" -- be careful what you wish for. Mother Nature abhors a vacuum, and the climatological snow void in portions of the Mid-Atlantic faces at least 5 more weeks of opporunity to be filled. Dare we say a "Fantastic February" awaits? (Image: NOAA Climate Prediction Center's One-Month Precipitation Outlook for February 2011.)

592 comments:

1 – 200 of 592   Newer›   Newest»
terpguy said...

YAY!  THe comments are back!

Way to go, Jesse!!!

somestars said...

I don't know who you are, Jesse, but you're my NEWEST best friend.  Stellar job!!

A cheery 6 degrees as I got in the car on my way to work at 6:45 a.m. this day.  Interestingly, as I checked the thermometer on my dash during my 25 minute drive, the temps went from 6 to 8 to 10 to 11 to 10 to 7 and then down to 4 as I got closer to school.  On the radio they simply said "10 degrees." 

SO ... if the temps can vary that much just driving on 695 and I-83, what must they do over
hill and dale -- hither and yon -- over the river and through the woods?  I think it's difficult for one single forecast to accurately predict the weather over a large area.  Therefore, Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, I ASK you ... isn't it possible that we get could snow even if they're saying temps will bring us rain?

Pay the bailiff on your way out.

Mary in Hydes said...

well said!  Bring on the snow.

terpguy said...

Julee,  I know you want to be "Jesse's Girl" (name the artist and the year....and the Album!!!). 

He's a new web team member from the business world, and really has his html together!  Great addition!

Fingers crossed for snowage!!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

All right we are back in business.  I guess some things really are worth fighting for.  The next storm looks like it could be snowier than anticipated.  I love the latest trends in the lying models.  Tonights 0 Z runs MAY be telling.  

somestars said...

Rick Springfield?  annnnd ... I don't know ... and I don't know.

But I DO know that we needed Jesse and his HTML ways!  Thank you Jesse!

somestars said...

SNOWIER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THAT'S what we want to see!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  You are the (snow)man, Andy!

Jen O said...

OMG...could it be??? The old comments...woohooo...Great job Jesse!

Kyle G said...

Love to hear it Andy.  It just wouldn't be right to have 5-7 degree temps early in the week and then a rainstorm later in the week...

Also, another "positive" fact is that the NAO is trending positive, or at least neutral.  Additionally, perhaps this clipper will introduce some colder air than anticipated by the models.  Although, there is certainly some warm air in the gulf with our storm right now.

Mr. Foot - Dundalk, MD said...

Dr. Andy: Touche my friend, touche. Some things ARE worth fighting for. (Clutching side while holding ice pack to forehead.)

Hope this shiner doesn't look too bad when I meet with the NOAA Weather Camp Directors on Thursday in Seattle.

But seriously-- the credit for the returning the comments ALL GOES to Web Advisor Jesse! He was literally an answered prayer for all of us. Now onward to storm mayhem and school closing consternation.

somestars said...

HEY Mister!  Who are YOU????????????????????

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

The amped up 0Z nam show a foot of snow for Baltimore.  I don't buy it becasue it's the amped up nam.  The trend looks good though.  Things are cooling a little.  We have to see the GFS and Euro.  Expect a winter storm watch by noon or earlier of that trend holds.

Pre-storm Check list

1) Drive to Goodwill and donate remaining bags of icemelt
2) Stop at pawn shot and unload snowblower
3) Put 4x4 in shop just becasue
4) Forecast heavy rain to all friends and family regardless of all other evidence

Jen O said...

Would be nice if this held true...

terpguy said...

Soringfield, CORRECT!

Anybody want to go for the year and the Album?

Jen O said...

nice....not getting my hopes up..but i like seeing these

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

RGEM and NAM showing great stuff.  10-15 inches of snow and thunder snow.  I urge caution though. 

terpguy said...

I like the model shifts, but:

Don't count your chickens before they hatch, and

Don't measure a snowfall until you are humping it off of your driveway...

terpguy said...

Springfield...duh

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

We have to see what the Euro does.  Winter storm watch by the am is a lock. 

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Based on the 0Z suite of models solid 6-12 inches of snow for the Baltimore area up to southern PA.  A heavy wet snow.  We'll see what the morning runs bring.  8-)  

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

There is stunning model agreement.  Expect a winter storm watch for our entire area.  This storm can dump up to a foot around Baltimore city west and north.  This will be a heavy wet snow, so it will be a beast to shovel.   I-95 west is primed for a major snowstorm if tonights models verify.  There is amazing consensous on a major snowstorm.  All weather outlets will go nuts in the am. 

JULIE said...

LOVE # 4 That's where I am at lol

JULIE said...

=-O

Jen O said...

Boo for 95...lol...I'll take a foot though if the snow gods permit...it's crazy watching the models come in

JULIE said...

=-O =-O =-O

BioPat said...

OK, no watches yet, but it's still early.  I'm thinking i may take a trip out to see my doc today,just in case Thursday afternoon may not be a good time to travel into downtown Ellicot City.

Duke in Parkville said...

I'm ready!  Bring on da funk, bring on da noise, bring on da foot!!!  Heavy and wet or light and fluffy - it'll all melt eventually --- gotta get some milk, bread, tp and a good book!

BioPat said...

Bring it on, and bring it on strong!! 8-)

nafinegar said...

I read through the discussion section on the NWS, the pointed out the model agreement but they haven't really upped their snow predictions. Hoping they change them soon. A foot would be delightful!

Kyle G said...

Definitely looking promising.  There's already a nice plume of moisture rising from the gulf.  Cautiously optimistic!!

Amber WB said...

So. . . .what does this mean for the Annapolis area? More of a mix? Or just less precip altogether?

Rufus79 said...

JB is saying mostly rain I thought...  Start as a mix...rain all day aftersunset snow....4inches tomorrow night of snow? I'm not getting up or down till after the 12z and this run will have the flight info as well....of course that could send all the models into a runway rucus.

Temps rose over night but I often remeber a day of close to 50 and the next day getting hammered...by snow!!!!!

BioPat said...

Rufus, lost your post, but it looks like tomorrow will start with a wintry mix, then change over to a cold rain for most of our area.  Overnight switch back to snow with 4+ inches around Baltimore with more anticipated west and north of Baltimore.  My guess on wednesday is maybe a late opening???  Thursday, I'm betting on closures among the schools.  I should add - at least at this point.  JB is concerned about Thursday icing.

ravensbbr said...

NWS & Accuweather calling for mostly all snow event here in NE Carroll, whoo-hoo!!!

(Legal note: (to be read in a fast, legal-eze clipped tone) "The use of the exclamatory "whoo-hoo!" may be revoked should this form of precipitation fail to materialize. Failure to materialize will further damage opinion of said corporate forecasting services. Foot's Forecast still rules. Power to the people. Miller Brewing Company, Millwaukee, Wisconsin, please drink responsibly")

:-D

Mary in Hydes said...

late opening on Wed?

Mary in Hydes said...

=-O :-D =-O :-D =-O

BioPat said...

Perhaps, we need to wait and see a little more info about this storm.

daniel smith said...

FAITH IN THE FLAKES! FAITH IN THE FLAKES! Especially over my AACO snow hole :'(

Amy said...

This might be the one time I'm thankful that western HoCo seems to have their own weather which can bring down the whole district to a snow day.  I really don't want the snow day unless I get snow to play in though. . .not just Glen Elg area.

Matt S said...

4+ inches of snow would be AWESOME..... too bad University of Maryland has their own snow plows... it may take 6 inches to give us a snow day... not getting my hopes up just yet

Jen O said...

Not looking good

Jen O said...

Comments are acting funny..lol

Jen O said...

Starting to look good for all of us :)

Amy said...

Phone just lit up with winter weather watch for northenr baltimore, carroll, frederick counties.  Starts Weds. afternoon through late Weds.  Precip type is mainly snow, but possible mix with sleet or rain.  Becoming all snow mid to late afternoon. Accumulations of 5 or more inches of snow.

BioPat said...

 Winter Storm watch finally posted for all of Balto Metro area.  Timing of the storm will be critical with temps accounting for more snow or ice/snow.  My thinking is still looking at probable closure for Thursday, but maybe some impact on Wednesday as well.
  We have been burned so often this year with these crazy storms; I am in Terp's camp in not thinking about how much snow until it becomes necessary to attack with a shovel or snowblower.  I for one am tired of treating my walks with a broom and salt.

Amy said...

What, no love for HoCo or AA Co?

terpguy said...

Too far South for this one....maybe..

terpguy said...

I LIED!!

WSWatch for AA CO @ 1309 local!

:)

Amy said...

If we don't get snow in HoCo, I will at least console myself that I do not have to go an extra day in June while Carrol and Frederick might.

Amy said...

Lie is such an ugly word.  How about misguided?

daniel smith said...

aaco (glen burnie)

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...BECOMING ALL SNOW DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW STARTING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


Hot Diggity Dog whoo hoooo :-P

Rufus79 said...

I do remember having warm day prior to a huge snow. Watched a racoon(rocky we called her) for many hours get her  nest set up and revamped and the next day we had over a foot of snow. LOL just remembered this about Rocky... When my oldest was about 3 we had a cat Zachary who could pass for a racoon in the dark...well I saw who I thought was Zach on the back porch and I said kaitlin let the cat in he's at the door...I hear the door open and slam..."she says to me "Mother that was not Zachary that was a racoon!" No the racoon did not make it in the house....

Saw a few flurries this morning...should be an interesting day(s). BP I guess it depends on when the storm starts and what form the precip is in for tomorrow....I do however expect after school activities to be cancelled.

Rufus79 said...

Not sure the storm is as impressive as it looks? But on the radar it's looking like a biggie.

Kyle G said...

Things are looking good! 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/

We just need to limit that annoying rain! 

The storm is kicking up some strong to severe storms in Florida as well.  It looks potent!  ;)

daniel smith said...

GETTING EXCITED! I am now in the 5-8" range.

ps - dont ever update your fbook status with that statement. I learned the hardway today :-P

Jen O said...

HAHA...thanks for the laugh

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

There is almost 100% agreement in the models and data.  Expect a WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT.  Great data with recon flights by NOAA.

REAL FORECAST:

This will be all snow for Baltimore and almost all snow for DC.  The area is in store for a solid 8-12 inches.  ENJOY!  Thunder snow looks highly probable with 2-3 icnh hour rates.  Someone inmy opinion could see 15 inches.  Gotta love convective banding.  Classic MAJOR EAST COAST STORM. 

Leslie said...

So no rain?!?! Schools tomorrow?!?!?!

Jen O said...

I missed the data?

Jason Mitchell said...

I agree, although totals for areas south of DC may be limited to 3-6 inches. Finally we should get in on the snow action!!

ho co sub said...

Doubtful. They'll just petition the state Superintendent to forgive the days like they did last year, when Howard County was too (idk, proud? stubborn?) to do so ...

HarCo E said...

I do not believe this one bit...

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

The East Coast is lighting up like a Christmas tree with winter storm watches.  The omegas being modeled are amazing.  Expect heavy thunder snow and under the convective bands the snow fall rates will be insane.  Schools will be closed, many roads will likely have to close.  This is a high impact event.  THis is an area wide solid foot snowstorm.  It will be heavy and wet snow which can cause power outages.  The national weather service in their disco is looking to upgrade to a warning by tonight. 

My Site (click to edit) said...

school closings for tomorrow? no rain tomorrow? what?!  it was 45 degrees today! The SE wind will change everything to rain tomorrow!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

The low is currently in the gulf and if you look at the radar link to the right you wil see all of the precip and convection breaking out ahead of the low.  This is a CLASSIC East Coast snowstorm for I-95 west.  Radar is a terrible forcast tool, but it gives you an idea of the scope of this system.  The track of the low is a classi KU track.   

BioPat said...

 Andy, I do believe you are actually drooling with excitement!  Fianlly something of significance coming our way.  Break out the manwich, stack the tp, bread, milk, and other necessary beverages for a snow blown event!!  I may even rev up the snowblower in the morning, although I do believe they will try and get us into school with the knowledge that we may be home the rest of the week.
  I'm off to Goucher in about 30 minutes so I'll miss most of the chatter tonight.  I'll try and touch base when we have students introduce themselves.

Jen O said...

Congrats Mder's :)

BioPat said...

I'm not sure Rufus.  My thinking is they will try and get us in tomorrow if at all possible.  My rationale is the concern over being closed the rest of the week.  I would be if we go in we'll be looking at a 2 to 3 hour early dismissal.

Jen O said...

Let's just say that I think the local met's are being VERY conserative on their totals. I think totals are going to be WAY higher than what they are saying right now ;)

Lori said...

Andy, isn't this the storm you were punting a few days ago? As we saw with the Ravens/Steelers game, never stop playing until the whistle blows! Now we're going to get the biggest snow we've had all season. I already made my grocery store run a couple of days ago, so I'm ready to sit back and get ready for the main event :-D

somestars said...

Felicitations, fellow flake fanciers!

Vsited a grocery store near a salt dome in Parkton after school today. As i was loading the groceries into my car, I became aware of a constant "beep beep beep beep." What could THAT be?  Looked up and saw yellow salt trucks lined up like little ducks (little NOISY ducks) as far as the eye could see. THEY know!

Sending a photo of a visitor to the library feeder today.  He's looking down on a feeding frenzy of fellow birds.

The "big warm-up" in Monkton today?  Got all the way up to 39.

JULIE said...

funny but it was true

JULIE said...

=-O

Mary in Hydes said...

So off to school in the a.m., what about early dismissal?  If it changes over quicker....
You really think off the rest of the week?  Should I begin to get really really excited?

Kyle Guynn said...

Just look at that traffic to the website!  361,645 unique visitors, as of 5:15pm

From Foot's Facebook page:

<span><span>With high ratios in consideration from 9pm-2am it is possible for some Baltimore metro areas to see 2-3" snowfall rates per hour, which leads us to believe a 5-8" snowfall is in the oven baking and just about 12 hours away from being eatable. Current trends have been pointing to more snow, therefore we cannot rule out a shift in our numbers later tonight. Please stay tuned for what will be a busy night here at Foot's Forecast!</span></span>


Also, the convective banding could deliver us some nice thundersnow!  Florida got hammered by thunderstorms today.  This is a potent storm for sure!   8-)

Matt S said...

I'm loving Andy's forecast... just hope it's righ

Matt S said...

I'm loving Andy's forecast..... let's hope it all stays this way!!  (At least those who love snow in Central MD)

JULIE said...

nws -WITH THE FORECAST AND 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING COLDER/SNOWIER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WED. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR WED. IT WAS KNOWN THAT IT WOULDNT TAKE MUCH FOR THIS STORM TO BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING HEAVY SNOW INSTEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED RAIN/SNOW.

hocoKtchr said...

Yeah baby!  Bring it on!  Just home after school and loving all these coments to read!

Rufus79 said...

It was known?

On a serious note I understand they are having tornados in FL...dangerous.

JULIE said...

which is why I no longer live in GA :* SCARY

Rufus79 said...

tornados...dislike

Rufus79 said...

glad you don't have to feed them @ 3 something a gallon :)

BIrds were active today...for one it was warmer and they want tostuff themselves as the temp is dropping

Rufus79 said...

I think open...possibly close 3hours early?...or two...when's it startin?...no after school activities.

Rufus79 said...

LOL!!!!! too funny

somestars said...

Ahhhhh ... only the BEST fcr my bird babies.  Spent $20 at The Mill on 2 bags of seed and 3 suet cakes yesterday.

Rufus79 said...

I'm thinking 2-3 hours early depending on the start time...they have to take into account getting the buses back to the yard and everyone getting home...or I should say THEY SHOULD take that into account.

Rufus79 said...

ya covered that machine with foil dincha!

somestars said...

Yeah ... the "it was known" stopped me in my tracks when I read it this afternoon.  They SURE didn't "let on" they "knew" it these last couple of days!

Rufus79 said...

I was talking about the big ducks going beep beep as they go backwards...

Brian Hood said...

Hello all. I love a good snowstorm as much as the next guy, but could someone please tell me why none of the local stations seem concerned at all about this storm?  None of them are predicting anything over 4 inches; they all say it is going to be mainly rain.  So what's up with that?

somestars said...

Entertainment for Rufus tomorrow.
Send him out with a bottle of green food coloring and this picture.

hocoKtchr said...

OMG! I love that photo!  Too too cute!  And here's to hoping we get enough snow to make a frog!  Wahoo!  Faith in the flakes!  O:-)

somestars said...

Oh.  HA HA. 
They were LOUD and no kidding ... there was a BIG flock of them loading up.  Probably sitting (ducks) on the side of 83 N as we speak.

JULIE said...

I don't know because I haven't watched a local channel newscast in 5 years. They report was is happening not what will. For instance - I'm standing on the side of the road right now its snowing here comes a car.

JULIE said...

No kidding!

Leslie said...

Tricky little devils!

Rufus79 said...

I think Rufus would be scared to death. He's a bit or scardy cat but he loves his momma...he tries to stay in the same room with strangers but he just can't. Hubby thinks he's goofy...maybe but I love him...and Rufus too :)

Rufus79 said...

nad let me bend down so noone can see me in my spiffy black coat. Sometimes I have to look away! =-O

Rufus79 said...

That blue bird is lovely :)...The hawk was out and about this morning also...he's a big fella.

Rufus79 said...

weatherbug now has snow tonight and tomorrow?...The temp is dropping wind was out of NE but has swuns to SE guess it will be doing that from time to time.

Rufus79 said...

BTW I did make a crock of meatballs on Sunday....

terpguy said...

FYI-  as Andy has pointed out (and we have yet to post it) this is going to be a wet, heavy snow.  Please assist any elderly neighbors with snow removal.  This isn't going to be the light, fluffy stuff that we've gotten used to.

JULIE said...

the last local newscast I caught was hilarious. I loaded it up to facebook we were laughing so hard. The newslady was looking in the wrong camera when talking and stumbled her words. She started giggling while talking about a family that lost their house to a fire. I vowed never again. Not too mention its' just depressin'.

BioPat said...

If we get close to 12" I can bet we'll be out Thursday, and either late or out on Friday.

BioPat said...

I believe that was the same station that downplayed a Saturday storm this time last year.  No pre-salting of highways and 7" later we had a real dangerous situation in this area.

somestars said...

Look at YOU with your adorable reptilian avatar!

Is there any truth to the advice I've seen to spray the snow shovel with Pam (or probably WD-40) for easier shoveling?

BioPat said...

Most definitely , YES!!  Pam cooking spray also works really well, but it is more expensive that the WD 40.

JULIE said...

oh YAY we are discussing shoveling ;)

hocoKtchr said...

BioPat....I think close to 12" would cripple the school systems/road crews etc. Main roads would be good...fairly quickly...but back roads?  fuggetaboutit!  8-)   I would guess most would be closed on Th and Fri just because of all the parking lots, sidewalks to clear....bus stops, etc!  Wahoo!!!

NeedaSnowday said...

Greetings all!  Lookin pretty good huh!!

Rufus79 said...

yes didn't we? But I was prepared because of here :)

Rufus79 said...

I just hope I'm awake for thundersnow....

Kyle G said...

It is interesting how the local stations are downplaying the storm (except Justin Berk), but then again, why am I surprised?  The lowest I've seen anywhere is 3 inches for south-central MD, but most have central MD in the 4-6 range, with Justin Berk stating 4-8. 

The basic mantra with this storm is "The quicker the changeover, the higher the totals." 

Essentially, it's a battle between the surface low (warm) and the upper level low (cold).  May the fight begin!

29F at Pasadena Elementary School (Weatherbug)

BioPat said...

Quite a change from today's high of 45*.  I left the dentist at 3:45 today and noted that was the temp in downtown Catonsville.

Rufus79 said...

Andy you hauling wood...or spending time with the fam?...or working?

BioPat said...

Maybe salting the road to his mancave headquarters.

Kyle Guynn said...

I think Foot's new headline of "Whiplash" is quite appropiate for the temperatures we've experienced this week! 

ravensbbr said...

LMAO!!!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

HPC precip map has the Baltimore area anywhere from 1.5 to 2.0 inches of liquid just east.  The link is to the right.  Impressive.  I think this storm will surpise.  If a 10-1 ratio would verify that would be 15-20 inches.  I still think this is a general 12 inch storm for our area. 

Rufus79 said...

I read it's snowing in Memphis

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Hpc map looks impressive to the right, it is valid until Sunday.  Almost 2 inches of liquid around Baltimore, 95% of which would be snow.  Things are starting to look very interesting. 

Brian Hood said...

If you look at the radar loop it looks like its going out to sea...

Jen O said...

For you all

<pre>.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
<span>-- Changed Discussion --HEADS UP THAT WE ARE GOING TO UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE
WE HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IN A 12
HOUR PERIOD. NAM IS COLDER AND WOULD SUGGEST WARNING SNOW
CRITERIA EAST TO INTERSTATE 95 BUT IS A RELATIVE OUTLIER TO THE
18Z GFS AND 12Z ECWMF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LESS SNOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THIS PRESENTS CONFIDENCE ISSUES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
REGARDING SNOWFALL TOTALS SO WINTER STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR NOW.
</span></pre>

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Finished working.  Will burn a vacation day Wednesday.  Not messing around with 2-3 inch per hour snowfall rates, winding curvy roads, with cliff like dropoffs in those conditions.    There are still forecasts around Baltimore news at 5:00 on the radio calling for almost all rain.  What a mess tv weather is.  Total joke and abdication of public responsibility. 

Rufus79 said...

I was just gonna post that...we losing this storm I wonder? Time will tell

JULIE said...

I don't get it. The last 2 sentences...

Rufus79 said...

New weather discussion sounds like it's taking the storm west> about 5:48 this evening....of course that was going on 3 hours ago? Any thoughts oh wise one...and I'm not being sarcastic you know alot about weather.

hocoKtchr said...

Oh no...say it ain't so!  C'mon man!  Faith in the flakes!!!  O:-)

Amy said...

I think my manic excitement from the earlier posts about a decent storm have potentially crashed to depression based on above message.  Can someone explain please.  I'm a chemist, so that's not helping me understand all the data that gets batted around.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I think we are good for 6-12, nothing is going west.  Best dynamics are east. 

JULIE said...

so AACO north 6-12?

JULIE said...

it can't be bad that they say change winter watch to warning. But I dont get the "this presents confidence issues east of Blue Righte so watch remain in effect"

JULIE said...

friend posted "never satisfied always want more inches". And that 's the G version

Rufus79 said...

they are saying the warning will be for west of the blue ridge...that east will remain a watch I am east.

Rufus79 said...

is nam better the closer it gets to the storm...or worse?

Tina said...

I found this link the last snow-go-around... dunno how accurate it is, but it was a lot of info in one place:

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/prometweatherblogs/12/2/3911/MODEL-GUIDANCE-TIMES...ACCURACY...SCHEDULE-THIS-WEEK-%28WEATHER-101%29

JULIE said...

you know 3" or 12" I'll take it. This a.m. it was 1" all rain. So I am happy FAITH IN THE FLAKES

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

They will have to upgrade to a warning before midnight.  Short range ensembles forecast are another huge hit.  I am comfortable with an 8-12 forecast. 

Kevin Stafford said...

<span>
<pre><span>"NAM...IS A RELATIVE OUTLIER..."</span></pre>
<pre>That, coupled with the explicit statement concerning a lack of "confidence" in the snow totals is quite an emphatic declaration, in my humble opinion. Anything less than 6 inches of snow/sleet - especially if over by AM commute on Thursday will just be an incredible pain in the rear for most working folks. Quite fitting then that "Life of Brian" was just on IFC. </pre>
<pre>"Always look on the bright side of life." (begin gratuitous whistling) </pre>
</span>

NeedaSnowday said...

looks like Manwich has surfaced!  You got the beast ready to rock n roll??

zach said...

I remember the other day you, and every other met in the area were saying all rain :p! This is what makes me love weather! God I hope we get a foot around Annapolis! :)

Nick said...

For Howard County/Ellicott City too? :P

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I just want folks to understand that my thinking about the 8-12 is not bullish, if it is anything it conservative with the data coming in.  Those convective bands are setting up to be awsome.  There could be some very nice thunderstorms of puking snow. 

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I'm not a met, just a longtime weather nut.  I will say this though, the way the season was going, the lack of a cold high really made this look like a thread the needle storm and more wet than white.  Maybe a 10% chance of this occuring.  I went with the 90%, but guess what?  We are threading the needle in the best possible way.   

Caryn Radlove said...

Do we have a good handle on timing yet? I'm supposed to drive to and from Wilmington from Glen Burnie tomorrow. Leaving around noon and driving back around 5:30... I'm starting to get pretty nervous about it!

somestars said...

Went back to the NWS discussions.  On their snow forecast, we're getting 7 inches in N.Baltimore county, but they're predicitng 3 inches in the discussions.  They're saying temps should drop to at or below freezing in early morning.  It's 33 on my back porch right NOW.
Good people of FootsBook, whom do we believe?  Andy, who plays the Hurdy Gurdy on a street corner in Baltimore, or those crank mets at NWS?
ANDY!!!!!!!!!  That's who.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Yes.  8-12 is a solid call.

somestars said...

Beautifully put, A.

somestars said...

Andy predicts rain before EVERY snowstorm.  Such a Pollyanna.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I am working from home.  The timing is awfull. I would not want to be on an interstate in a 2-3 inch per hour band.  Not worth it.  I hope people listen to the weather in the am.  The Winter Storm Warnings should be a signal to the local tv mets to get the word out.  I would be off the road well before rush hour if I had to travel.  Global models give us 1.00 to 1.25 qpf.  In the wettest of snow that is 8-12. 

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I am only reporting the data of what the most reliable and even unreliable models are showing.  The trend continues colder and the qpf is very high.  These are just the facts.  All models agree on this storm.  They are all initialized with the same data, and their parameteriztions vary, but their conclusions are all very similar. 

Jen O said...

Yeah my decision will be made in the morning. I'm not looking forward to driving 83. I just hope there are warning in place so my work knows this means business....

Caryn Radlove said...

Thanks for the input. I'm stressing. I teach at a college and I'm afraid that since most of the students live locally, they won't close in time for me to bail out. Ugh. I'm a snow lover but do wish it would hold off just a bit later!

Caryn Radlove said...

Weird... my post above got cut off... just sayin' I wish it would hold off just a bit! :-D

Rufus79 said...

I think you could have some problems?????

Rufus79 said...

I don't know Julee after all it was "KNOWN" all along :)

Rufus79 said...

Lol puking snow....I just hope I'm awake when it thundersnows!!!!!!! Read somewhere maybe starting in DC 4-5 am????? Maybe they will bag school????call 3 hrs early before it starts? However in Howeird Co that will mean get to school 3 hours early not close 3 hours early ;)

Kyle G said...

I'm turning in for the night.  I have to agree with Andy, the latest guidance is impressive.

NWS:
<span>BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AM BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONVINCED OF A COLDER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD FAVOR
<span>HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER EAST.</span></span>


I'll be thinking snowy thoughts in my dreams!  Here's to a good ol' fashioned east coast snow storm!! :)

28.4 at Pasadena Elementary School

Lori said...

This is very concerning since so many people are unaware of the potential magnitude of this storm. Here in Baltimore, from what I'm hearing (didn't watch it myself)...WBAL was still calling for 1-3" and WJZ the same. Now if this is true, alot of people are being put in harm's way possibly due to irresponsible reporting. I hope that's not the case. I think enough data has come in confirming a huge storm for our area and there are still people out there who think we're getting rain followed by an inch or two of snow. With those heavy snow bands that will be coming in, I hope people can get off and stay off the roads as visability is going to be extremely poor and roads WILL be slick. Stay warm and safe peeps!!

Rufus79 said...

<span>Rut row one of the weather balloons bought the farm due to icing!!!</span> =-O =-O <span>:SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0132Z WED JAN 26 2011

THE 00Z NAM MODEL HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS
<span>...</span><span>AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...68
CONUS...4 MEXICAN...AND 3 CARIBBEAN STATIONS.

00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
[b]TBW/72210 - BALLOON FORCED DOWN BY ICING CONDITION...10151.[/b]APX/72634 - CODE 10159.
MZT/76458 - CODE 10159.

CWD CONTINUES UNTIL 26/0500Z. GOES-E RSO ONGOING UNTIL 26/0315Z.

$$

HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP[/quote]</span></span>

Mary in Hydes said...

Hi all!  I have read all your comments.  What do you think start time will be in the Baltimore area?  At my house I am currently at 31 degrees.  Do you think delays in the morning for icy conditions or delay tactics because they know it's coming and rush hour could be a mess.  Let me know your thoughts...I know you're all out there checking back quite often to see who is posting.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

NWS
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AM BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONVINCED OF A COLDER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD FAVOR
HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF 00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA. OBVIOUSLY A SMALL CHANGE
IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CAN HAVE A LARGE IMPACT REGARDING SNOWFALL
TOTALS OVER THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS
STORM WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT BANDING CHARACTERISTICS AND WE/LL HAVE
TO TRY TO PINPOINT WHERE BANDING OCCURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. EITHER WAY...FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR DUE
TO SNOW

Jen O said...

Ugh...State College...I swear..headlines remain the same.

<pre><span>WATCHING SFC PRESSURE EVOLUTIONS CLOSELY FROM AL TO THE GA COAST
THIS EVENING...DUAL LOW STRUCTURE IS FURTHER NORTH THAN 18Z
GFS/NAM AND SIMILAR TO 12Z ECMWF...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
NEW 00Z NAM12...BUT THE NAM IS CATCHING UP. RESULTING NAM12 RUN
PRODUCED A LOW TUCKED CLOSER TO THE COAST LOCATED NEAR THE
CHESAPEAKE AT 00Z THU...SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW
(6" OR MORE) IN AREAS WHERE WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY PLACED.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW ARE SOLIDLY IN THE 0.25 TO
0.35" QPF TOTALS. WHAT WILL BE INTERESTING IS TO SEE THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEFS MEMBERS...AS THE NAM HAS BEEN ON THE
DRIER SIDE OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS PER COORD
WITH WFO MOUNT HOLLY THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP ALL HEADLINES AS IS
FOR THIS EVENING AND ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT A GOOD LOOK AT THE
00Z SUITE TO MAKE THE BEST WARNING DECISION POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
</span></pre>

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Expect a WINTER STORM WARNING for 6-10 inches of snow around midnight to 1:30.  They will go conservative I am sure.  8-12 is an easy call based on all models. 

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I would get off the road by noon.  That is why I am working from home.  I ususally drive in snow, but will not in 2-3 inch per hour bands .  No way. 

Rufus79 said...

<span>Not sure what this means?:</span>

<span></span><span>NOAA Just updated in Central PA...DUAL LOW STRUCTURE IS FURTHER NORTH THAN 18Z
GFS/NAM AND SIMILAR TO 12Z ECMWF...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
NEW 00Z NAM12...BUT THE NAM IS CATCHING UP. RESULTING NAM12 RUN
PRODUCED A LOW TUCKED CLOSER TO THE COAST LOCATED NEAR THE
CHESAPEAKE AT 00Z THU...SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR<span>...</span><span> HEAVY SNOW
(6" OR MORE) IN AREAS WHERE WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY PLACED.</span></span>

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I don't care about that office, it is a joke.  During the Feb 2003 blizzard they did not issue a watch.  They went to an immediate warning.  Their forecast within 12 hours of that beast was for a chance off snow showers.  I remember Mr. Foot's story about his ski trip and lack of warning.  New Freedon PA got 30 inches without a watch. 

Rufus79 said...

A weather balloon was lost due to icing...lost data there I'm sure and I saw that post about a low being off the Cheaspeake.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

The models are PUKING snow and the sky will be.

Rufus79 said...

Oh NO!

Rufus79 said...

I just don't know Mary...I'm thinking perhaps they close if it's snowing or about to snow in the am???

Rufus79 said...

thought I lost this post...lost one about the weather Balloon?

Rufus79 said...

No mention if it was butter cream or chocolate :-P

My Site (click to edit) said...

This storm is headed out to sea...and getting weaker.  we will see 1-3 inches out of this.  i am with trusty "tommy t".  Schools may get out 1 hr early tomorrow...delay POSSIBLE thursday. 

zach said...

Sorry, but I'm on team lots of snow, I'm with Andy, we should see 8-12!

Matt S said...

*dislike MAJORLY!!!

Jen O said...

Just frustrates me knowing what this storm is going to bring. There are SOOO many people un-prepared...like my work..they have no clue. They all think it's a tiny nuisance storm only dishing out 2-3"...

These people are going to be driving..lives are in danger, conditions are dangerous, etc...

Really SC...get with the program for once..

wvmomof5 said...

Wow, it looks like the bubble that has kept all of the snow from us this winter may officially get popped!!!  Looks like we could be right in the bullseye of this storm!-Eastern panhandle of WV

Lori said...

LOL Rufus

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

If you have something constructuve to add please do.  Do not post baseless information. 

Lori said...

Thanks Andy. I think the trolls have found us :(

Rufus79 said...

There a hacker on Henry's fb site...he's becoming a bother.

Rufus79 said...

that's what I was wondering

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

The latest RGEM shows 30-40MM of snow at BWI.  That is 12-16 inches of snow.  We report you decide!

nafinegar said...

I'm all for the snow, but I was hoping it wouldn't impact the rush hour. I have to appear in court as an attorney tomorrow at 2pm....probably won't get out before 4pm and then I can leave downtown Baltimore to drive home to Columbia.  Here's hoping my Buffalo upbringing or some court closures will save me!

JULIE said...

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rufus79 said...

HarCo E you can post here don't need to be secretive.

somestars said...

HOLY CATS!  Sixteen inches of snow?  You are ON the money, Andy! YOU should be on TV!
Wish I had the fortitude to stay up and see the watcheschange over to warnings, but  I have to get up at 5:30 for school.  Hope it's snowing then!

Jen O said...

This should make you happy :)

00z GFS hour 24

Rufus79 said...

it's the other people you have to look out for. The person you are behind with bald tires that can't up the hill...etc :)

JULIE said...

I can't stop giggling at this

JULIE said...

well I am getting nervous. My work follows Mary Baaaaaasssss. I am 9 months pregnant and have to pick up a 2 yr old from daycare. So even my 4wd doesn't protect me from idiots. What time should I leave work?

JULIE said...

LOL!!! Rufus you're a riot tonite lol

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Before noon. 

Rufus79 said...

want a McDouble cheese and a fruit parfait :) from the dollar menu

JULIE said...

I hope my husband doesnt get stuck at work Ruffy cause I can hold a 2yr old and shovel my way out the drive. NO MCD'S FOR ME!

JULIE said...

Thank you Andy I will and when work asks why I'll tell them have a nice commute :-$ (been waiting to use that one LOL!)

Rufus79 said...

Just concerned it may start here...lots more folks than last year so we are bound to get hit by a hairy man/woman who hides under the bridge that has billy goats on his/her menu :)

Rufus79 said...

I should add not really here posting... but on the FB following is huge and just something we need to be awares of ;) Ruffy doesn't get it's hard for mom to type withhis feet and tail draped ove rthe keyboard...and he has the nerve ti give e a look

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