Thursday, January 27, 2011

"Has the jury reached a verdict?"
9:00 PM EST SATURDAY 1/29/2011 The impending "Groundhog" weather event is gearing up to make a run at the East Coast next week, and will bring a lot of the Gulf Of Mexico with it. Models are trending toward a widespread, high impact severe and winter weather event covering a significant portion of the country east of the Missippippi. The rough guide to current ideas being discussed in the team as displayed on computer model projections:

1. SOUTHEAST: Starting Monday and continuing to Tuesday night, heavy rain, strong thunderstorms and an extensive outbreak of tornadoes.

2. OHIO & TENNESSEE VALLEYS: A long duration, high-impact and potentially paralyzing ice/sleet and rain scenario also in the Monday to Wednesday time frame.

3. MID-ATLANTIC: Southern states(Maryland, Virginia, Delaware) may experience a front end period of snow or sleet possibly transitioning to rain - producing high rainfall amounts and potential flooding. Northern states from Pennsylvania to New Jersey and into the entire Northeast are facing "the first insult" of February, as there is increasing probability of high snowfall accumulations over a very large area from eastern Pennsylvania north to Maine.

The Forecast team has been working diligently this evening on developing reports for each of those regions, and will update as soon as possible. Continue monitoring the Winter Stormcast Zone on this site and in facebook for our latest projections on this next winter weather nightmare. (Advisors Lear and Foot, Forecasters Winterman and Jason M.)

Mr. Freeze would be proud
A Youtube link to the best sayings of "Mr. Freeze"
from the Batman Series, played by Arnold Schwarzenegger

9:30 AM EST SATURDAY 1/29/2011 The weather pattern settling into place this weekend has the potential to generate a long-duration and widespread winter weather event next week from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. We'll do our best to "wishcast" this one away for you. Details in the Winter Stormcast Zone.

OUR REGIONAL ROUNDUP The Eastern U.S. tab has a roundup of coveage from our local forecast teams. You can also directly access our latest reports via these links to zones or facebook forecasts for Central Maryland, the Capital Region, and the Ohio Valley. The event is also being covered by our forecasters in Central Pennsylvania, the Carolinas and the Southeast. It is even a bit chilly in Central Florida, but notably milder than the snow-bound Northeast. Heading to the Sunshine State for a break? Get your very own Foot's Forecaster for Central Florida right in your pocket - visit and like the page by Lead Forecaster Matt B. in Brooksville near Tampa-St. Petersburg.
"Advisors in Action" Day
On this Arctic-encrusted morning back east, Forecaster Dakota and Advisor Mr. Foot are preparing for the long journey home from Seattle to Baltimore. It has been an action-packed week to say the least, with a major winter storm, school closures, conferences, and now this Advisors-in-Action Saturday to top it off.

With the student forecasters understandably in need of some rest after this week, today the advisors are immersing in adventures on behalf of the team. Dr. Pete Winstead, our Student Research Advisor and his entire family will be proudly displaying their Foot's Forecast T-shirts at the Annual "Polar Bear Plunge" held in Annapolis, MD. Advisor Brad Lear from Fallston, MD is representing the team from 11:00 AM to 2:00 PM EST during a Saturday family-oriented event at the Maryland Science Center titled "Deep Freeze."

And finally, a special video report taped Friday evening from Seattle's Pike Place Market by Forecaster Dakota and Mr. Foot:



"Why can't we spend
a normal day together?"
-Bill Paxton in the 1996 film Twister

12:30 PM EST FRIDAY 1/28/2011 Happy Friday! (for some...) Once again, a brief round of snow in the Mid-Atlantic arriving at "just the wrong time" complicated many school systems, businesses and government offices efforts to re-open, and forced another round of closures.

To put this latest set of Northeast U.S. school closures in perspective, some students and teachers in the East, just came off a THREE-day weekend due to teacher professional development on Monday. For them, the only "normal day" of this week was Tuesday, which has now been followed by a FIVE-day weekend due to school closures which started on Wednesday. A history teacher once told us that in situations like this, schools should just let July 4 be the last day, then students will have a real-life appreciation of "Independence Day"!

As the East coast continues to dig out from yesterday's hard-hitting winter storm, power outages remain a major problem throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. As of 9:00 am this morning it was reported in the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang, that over 127,000 outages continue in the Washington metro area, and 23,000 or more in the Baltimore region. Many locations in the Northeast are reeling from this "three-peat" of heavy snow which pummeled places like Philadelphia with 15.1 inches and has all but shut down that region as well.

At one point, over 500,000 homes and businesses were without power at the height of the storm, As was reported in local media, thousands of commuters became stranded on major highways as "torrential snowfall" struck from northern Virginia to southeast Pennsylvania during Wednesday. This video from the Baltimore Sun provides our readers from the western and central U.S. with a brief look at the intensity of the Wednesday event.

WHEN ARE WE GOING TO CATCH A BREAK? Well, you had to ask... A clipper moving across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today will deliver brief rounds of snow generally accumulating 1-2 inches. Following this system, another pulse of Arctic air will charge southeast from central Canada, and is likely to send temperatures below normal in the 6 to 10-day period into next week. Cross-referencing the Climate Prediction Center's probability maps for temperature and precipitation shows an "uh oh" situation. The concern lies with what happens when the long range projections point to below-normal temperatures followed by an increased probability of above-normal precipitation in the same period. The simple answer? This alignment increases the possibility another coastal storm system traverse the southeast early next week, pickup moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and then head north along the Eastern seaboard.

With this possibility still approximately "five days out" we will conduct internal analyses and can begin posting on scenarios for this event starting tomorrow.

SPECIAL MESSAGE FROM SEATTLE On behalf of the entire Foot's Forecast team, we would also like to welcome those who have visited our site from the American Meteorological Society annual conference in Seattle. Forecaster Dakota and Advisor Mr. Foot were invited to the event courtesy of the NOAA- and NSF-grant funded Weather Camp Program headquartered at Howard University in Washington, DC. They met with representatives of the various CAREERS/Weather Camps from around the country to speak about opportunities available for students to become members of Foot's Forecast. Thanks for reading and we hope you enjoy our forecasts!

Below: A special video greeting to our Central Maryland readers from Forecasters Dakota and Foot in downtown Seattle.


We know many of our readers have harrowing tales to tell about the impact of "snow-smack." One particular tale from the disaster that was yesterday afternoon involved a commuter in the Washington area - who was caught in the downpour of white. Their seven mile journey took seven hours! We hope they and all others who became stranded have gotten home safely. If you need a place to vent (appropriately) about your weather experiences in the past 24 hours - or wish to post pictures - we invite you to comment on it.

9:00 AM EST Thursday 1/27/2011 - While the western and central U.S. revels under tranquil conditions, people in the eastern U.S. are once again back to "you have got to be kidding me" mode. Torrential snowfall of 6 to 12 inches last night sent residents of the Mid-Atlantic scurrying for cover under widrespread thundering and lightning, paralyzing traffic across the region. Then it got worse.

As reported in this roundup of impacts by Comcast News, the major metro areas of the Northern I-95 Corridor were AGAIN pounded into snowstorm oblivion a THIRD time this winter: Philadelphia 12", New Jersey 19", Central Park of New York City 15" as well as Boston with 12".

The National Weather Service has a detailed list of latest snowfall totals in this Storm Summary.

Additional content is being added to this report in the next few minutes. Our best wishes for safety and warmth as our readers in the Eastern U.S. start the slow task of reclaiming their sidewalks, cars and roadways. Our team extends sincere thanks to the many useful and fervent reports of your experiences during the on-going impacts of this event in the Mid-South, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Your latest forecasts from our regional teams can be easily found in the "Forecast Centers" tab noted above. Forecasters Foot and Dakota - Seattle, WA from the Conference of the American Meteorological Society

278 comments:

1 – 200 of 278   Newer›   Newest»
terpguy said...

Fallston, 0945-
Thanks to the rest of the team for covering for me on the website, while I was covering for Foot on the website.

My power just came on after 14 hours.

10.1" of new snow last evening in about six hours.

terpguy said...

OK, NOW I get it. Foot & Dakota were covering for me while I was covering for Foot...

Regional updates and WSC will be updated shortly!

NeedaSnowday said...

Clipper Fri and Sat... another potential storm next week... 

:)

JULIE said...

got my snow day thanks to power outage at work :)

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

<pre>NWS Select totals!

...MARYLAND...
SCARBORO 2 E 15.5
GARRISON 1 SE 13.4
PIMLICO 13.0
WINFIELD 3 SE 12.7

Once again when it comes to reporting local weather information the local news is a DISASTER.
One station here said there was a total of 6 inches right near where I happen to reside,
but at least another said it was 12. I measured 16 carefully in 3 locations. Deck 17inches (bad place
to measure usually totals impacted by snow shadow of house etc) End of driveway away from house 15.5,
Concrete septic riser in the yard 16.2. This storm was as intenseas they come. Dumping all that snow in
a short period of time!</pre>

Kyle G said...

Wow, what a storm!!  The most thunder/lightning I've ever seen with a snowstorm, the heaviest sleet I've ever seen and the biggest flakes I have ever seen.  A truly remarkable storm!!

Now we have some clippers to look forward to before (HOPEFULLY) the encore comes next week.  Amazing.

7 inches in Glen Burnie.

Tina said...

Got a call from a co-worker:  you were right, I should have left when you said to (2:30-ish).  She waited till 4:30.  She sat on the D.C. beltway for hours. 

Tina said...

Forgot to give props to Andy... bowing with humble respect!  :*

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I'm glad everyone that follows the REAL weather was able to benefit from the information
we rely to you.  Weather is fickle and very hard to predict no doubt.  Unfortunately for local weather news, this storm WAS NOT.  Within 48 hours of the storm it was extremely well modeled.

Tuesday morning I was confident we were in for a pounding based on all the prior nights data.  Tuesday afternoon data continued to be ominous.  Based on surprising model agreement and trends it was clear a big storm was going to hit us.  I took off from work Wednesday knowing that if I did not my child would have never been picked up from daycare becasue I would likely have to sleep in the car on an interstate. 

A little common sense, planning, and paying close attention to the weather saved many
from a huge headach and life endangering situaton.  Unfortunately for those that don't follow this site, or who LIVE AND BREATH the weather like I and many of us here do, they were not served well by local media.  THIS STORM WAS NOT A SURPRISE, OR CLOSE CALL!  Hopefully,
this will be a learning lesson for many in braodcast media.  Kudos to Justin Berk for a job well done!  He stayed on top of this and is top notch and HONEST when it comes to reporting the weather to the public.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

=-O :-[

Mary in Hydes said...

Well said Andy!!!  So many people were completely blown away by what happened yesterday.  First waking up to snow and then thinking 3-6 in. later,  no big deal.   My husband had to go out.  He had no choice.  I warned him how bad it could be.  I think he knew but didn't want to believe.  He learned first hand what it's like to be stuck on a parking lot  called the beltway.  He left Columbia at 5:11 and got back to our house at 12:41 am.  He said people just walked away from their cars.  Broken wipers, cars slid into each other.  The big problem was that people had to sit and the snow kept coming down and then when you could move a little, you got stuck.  So many people in vehicles not meant for these conditions. I am so happy for all of you on here.  So happy to discover Foot's Forecast.  I know I will never be in the dark about what's going to happen outside.  Such a treat to come on here and talk to everyone.  
Ok...so that being said, What do you think about schools tomorrow?  :)

Matt S said...

My poor Dad works in DC and they wouldn't let him leave until 3pm.  He didn't get home until 12:30am.... 

A couple drove him home from the Park & Ride and got to the end of a street near us, but couldn't go any further because the plows were blocking the road.  He had to walk the rest of the way in his dress shoes, luckily our neighbor who has 4 wheel drive picked him up halfway down the road.... crazy!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Some pictures of (MY 6 INCHES *DONT_KNOW* according to one local station :-D :-D :-D :-D ) .  Someone forgot to add the 1 in front of the 6 at THAT station, but what's being off 10 inches between friends?  I was careful to measure last night, becasue this morning the heavy wet snow packed itself down.  The bottom part was VERY HEAVY, but the top layer more POWDER.  Compacted to an average of just under 13 this morning.

BioPat said...

Andy, thanks again for all your information.  You laid it on the line with folks and emphasized the importance of getting off the roads before the storm hit.  Between you and JB, I was able to offer my students and the school cafe manager important information that helped them plan for the storm and school closing.  We are all most grateful.

BioPat said...

Holy Moley!  That shot showing the depth of the snow post snow blower is pretty telling.  You have one monstor snowblower compared to my Toro, but my husband said we will be investing in a larger model in the spring or summer whenever they go on sale.

BioPat said...

8-) :-$ :-D :-D

BioPat said...

Too bad they had this event already scheduled.  I know they would have loved to be right in the middle of the action!  Fortunately their flight was early enough they were able to fly out without incident.

Kyle G said...

Fantastic pictures, Andy!  Those deck stairs should not go to waste.  Someone needs to take a sled down them, well maybe with a helmet ;)

Essex Dance Mom said...

You can lead people to the website, but you can't make them look at it!  I talk it up every chance I get!  Feel badly for everyone who couldn't make it to safety last night.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

BP,

Mine really had a hard time cutting through it!  It is a 28 inch snowblower and I needed every bit of it!  The bottom layer was like heavy paste, while the top was fluffy.  The bigger the better in therms of snowblowers!   

Kyle G said...

Sorry to hear that, Matt.  It's amazing how MD/DC can sometimes over react with 1 inch "storms" (or even rain), but when major events happen, the authorities seem to be caught off guard.  Thanfully there are nice people out there that are willing to help out!

Essex Dance Mom said...

Oh yeah, having said that, my daughter and I might be on Channel 11 at noontime.  Their chopper hovered over us while we were digging out behind the house :)

Tina said...

With all the thawing going on now and a solid refreeze tonight, I'm going with a 2-hour delay.

BioPat said...

Thanks for the info.  We ran into the same issue with the snow being fluffy on top, but really a thick mess at the bottom.  It took several passes to clear the dive and walkways, but it got done.  I'll keep that opening in mind when we look for a replacement model; I believe our current snowblower has an 18 - 20" opening.  With the depth of the snows this year and last, something bigger and self-propelled would be helpful.  We're getting too close to 60 to push that sucker up the hill.

Amy said...

I should be thankful for the sun helping the snow situation. But once it's done melting, it will refreeze tonight and then what for tomorrow?  I'm thinking 2 hour delay unless the clipper is bringing day snow that might scare them into calling it.

BioPat said...

I'm not sure about that 2 hour delay.  Roads, other than the main ones, are in pretty rough shape.

terpguy said...

Actually, they were on the tarmac for some time at BWI.  They missed their connections at ORD, but they caught a later flight.  Fortunately, they built an extra day+ of travel time.  They got there safely, and in plenty of time.

Amy said...

I certainly wouldn't argue with earlier notification than what they did this morning.  I didn't think the closure was a mystery, but they didn't call it until 4:50am.  I would like a decision tonight if at all possible.  Makes plans a lot easier.

terpguy said...

BLTN (better late than never...remember. I had a 14+ hour power outage)

Snowfall = 10.1"
Lq Eq = 1.04"

SWR = 9.71:1

Stopping by the backyars on a snowy morning, Part Two-

BioPat said...

I couldn't agree more.  I have no idea why they felt it necessary to wait until this morning to make a decision we all know was a no-brainer.

Jen O said...

My boss left work at 5:00pm. Didn't get home until 2am. Thank goodness I called out.

hocoKtchr said...

This is the link to the HoCo Bureau of Highways...looks like most roads have been treated....but a lot were only salted, not plowed yet.  And since most of the salt washed away before the big snow....hmmm.

http://www.co.ho.md.us/dpw/dpw_snowremoval.htm

I rely on the CHART website, and the one above...but I still have no clue what they will do!  =-O That said, I agree that knowing before 5 a.m. would be extremely helpful!  But doubtful!  I think they will try their hardest to get the day in....2 hours late or not....my guesstimate is they will still try to bring us in!

Amy said...

So much is reliant on the roads and we are such a spread out county, what looks good in Columbia may be down right rotten in Glenwood area. If roads are not plowed, the buses can't go.  This slush is so thick and it's only going to hard over night.  Guess I'll set my alarm for 5am and see what happens :-D

hocoKtchr said...

<span>This is the link to the HoCo Bureau of Highways...looks like most roads have been treated....but not all of them yet.  There are definitely some near my school that are untreated as of yet...but they have all night to work too!  </span>
<span>
http://www.co.ho.md.us/dpw/dpw_snowremoval.htm  
 
I rely on the CHART website, and the one above...but I still have no clue what they will do!  =-O That said, I agree that knowing before 5 a.m. would be extremely helpful!  But doubtful!  I think they will try their hardest to get the day in....2 hours late or not....my guesstimate is they will still try to bring us in!</span>

Jen O said...

Here are some commute photos I took this morning on my way into work

http://www.flickr.com/photos/itsjenslife/

Enjoy!

terpguy said...

backyard

FFS*

* Fat Finger Syndrome...

terpguy said...

BioPat-

Reply to your travel post at the bottom.

Lori said...

Thanks everyone for the great company last night during the storm! I always know I can count on Foot's team and us groupies (Ha!) to get accurate, honest reporting. Also big kudos to Justin Berk for an awesome job too! What a passion he has for the weather. I felt horrible for all those who were stranded on the roads. I think there is enough blame to pass around and I hope this event will make the local media and NWS re-think how these storms are portrayed and reported to the public. Now on to the next storm! This is becoming an addiction for me...I really need to get a life outside of weather ;)

Cathy Drumgoole said...

I know what you mean about the "addiction" thing.  Blackberry, iPad, and iMac,  I'm never out of touch with Foots Forecast!   :-D

BioPat said...

I didn't realize they had such difficulty; however I'm glad they were wise and built in that extra day of travel time.  I'll look forward to hearing about the information from the conference. 
  Terp do you know if we have settled on a date/time for our phone conf?

Cathy in Bel Air said...

I know what you mean about the "addiction" thing.  Blackberry, iPad, iMac, I'm never out of touch with Foots Forecast! :-D

BioPat said...

Got it.  Where is ORD, Ontario?  Glad they arrived in good shape for the conference.

terpguy said...

No, I don't.  Of course, I could have missed it.  I've been busier than a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.

hocoKtchr said...

Wow...looking at those accident photos makes me really grateful that I was home enjoying the snowstorm from the safety and comfort of my house!   :)         Thanks for sharing! 

Jen O said...

Yeah that was this morning on 695. We JUST missed it by at least 1-2 mins, IF that....They were just getting out of their cars that's...It was sad to see.

Anne Province said...

Even when you tell people bad weather is coming they don't listen so you have to remember that.  Many people are just oblivious to the weather.  I'm addicted to forecasts and the chatter and my friends always ask me what's going to happen, or I tell them about bad weather (tornado warnings too) and they seem very surprised to hear it.  I guess they will look out the window and see the storm coming?  When it's too late!  So remember that some blame goes to the oblivious ones and to the ones that ignore any warnings.  Can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink!!!

Paul ( Owings MIlls ) said...

Talk about addiction.. I was at work yesterday reading all the updates ...Thats how I convinced most of my team mates to get out of Dodge before the Beast Hit as " ANDY" called it ..Those you stayed were so sorry they did.......I live for storms like that....Now my only question is, The models apear to be all over the place again with this next storm next week....So I'm waiting on Andy to make his first statment about that one....

terpguy said...

Sorry...ex-wife was a Stew. ORD is the code for "Orchard Field".  We know it today as O'Hare.

Tina said...

Ditto for me.  I'm a total weather nut and finding this site was like stumbling upon a cold glass of ice water in a desert.  I'm AMAZED at how many people haven't got a clue (or, more specifically, don't have any curiosity) about weather.  We evolved being comletely at its mercy... you'd think that, at least, folks' brain stems would be saying "hey, we have info now, we have options!!!"

Tina said...

Cause, ya know, those WARM glasses of ice water are the pits... *DONT_KNOW*

Tina said...

Heh, I've got some friends who are planning to fly to Florida (for a conference) on Groundhog Day...

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/45026/ground-hog-day-snowstorm-in-th.asp

Anne Province said...

I think the weather just doesn't cross some peoples minds.  We used to live on a boat so I was constantly in tune with the weather.  I'd listen to my the VHF all the time.  Had a coworker that said to me once "If you want to know what the weather is just look out your window!!!!"  Ha ha ha.  No thanks.. I believe in being informed and able to protect my family from any dangers that I can. And true that... warm glasses of ice water are the pits!!!  But a hot cup of cocoa with Baileys Irish cream...now that's the best!

Tina said...

Keeping in mind, it's early, EARLY days (but, looking for a "fix" :-P nonetheless...):

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/lundberg/story/45023/another-one-for-1.asp

somestars said...

Took some pix around the old manse ... beautiful day!  One in particular shows a large cedar tree just waiting for me to clean off the car so it can "palumph" that snow right onto the newly cleared roof.
Not as dramatic as Andy's 16 inch behemoth snowfall!

terpguy said...

Cecil County (Maryland) Schools are closed Friday.

Tina said...

Finally!  Got a real avatar.  For what it's worth, this pic was taken this past Thanksgiving Day.  It (a determined little hollyhock) finally keeled over after a very cold overnight a couple of days later.

NeedaSnowday said...

TG...  this lil appetizer was to wet the whistle and get into "shape" for shoveling right?  Next week looks like models projecting a foot, eh?

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

<pre>
NWS STATE COLLEGE
Precipitation opportunity early next week
may be located along baroclinic zone extending from the Central
Plains east-northeast through the middle Atlantic region. Possible phasing of
streams could result in a more organized storm system emerging
from the Gomex at d8 and beyond. </pre>

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

<pre>NWS BALT WASH

high pressure will build over the region Saturday night into early
next week...bringing dry and seasonable conditions. Another storm
system may track up the East Coast Tuesday and Wednesday with wintry
precipitation possible across the area. Will continue to monitor
over the next several days. Track...timing and ptype remain
uncertain this far out.</pre>

BioPat said...

Aha!  O'Hara I know seems to be the gateway from the East to the west.  Doesn't everything that flys through ORD get delayed?  I've only been there a few times but always a delay justbecause of traffic.  So, glad Rich and Dakota were able to reconnect with a new flight west.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Models are all over the place with the placemt of the storm system next week.  It could be anything from rain to snow or mix if you sum up model output.  Just tossing out what the euro indicates.  You are looking at a potential sleet/rain event going over to heavy snow with accumulations anywhere from 8-12 inches, should that models version verify.  Now models have been putrid this year, and you cannot trust them outside of 48 hours.  What we need to take from this is that there is another potentially significant storm that could produce heavy snow and major traffic problems etc.  It just tells you to pay attention to forecasts as we get closer. 

If you read public forecast all they say is a chance of snow.  They don't ever tell you the POTENTIAL.  Now the POTENTIAL is HUGE so we need to follow TRENDS.  As we get closer and models are initialized with better data, we should get better model agreement and you can then take a stab at a SENSIBLE forecast based on BETTER data.  We will have a better idea by Sunday night what will likely happen.  Monday work day should not be a problem, and by then we will know what Tuesday WILL or WON'T bring and how to respond accordingly. 

After that, as you can see from The NWS disco from State College, they are tracking a POTENTIAL PHASING SYSTEM.  The is weather speak JARGON for a BULLY WITH A BASEBALL BAT looking to really pound someone. 

Next week COULD BE WILD.  It is POSSIBLE that there COULD be 2 storms that REALLY put a cork on everyones work and travel plans.  STAY TUNED!

somestars said...

Hey Andy (and everyone else), have any of THESE on your flat expanses?
<span><span>http://webecoist.com/2011/01/25/snow-rollers-tumblin-tumbleweeds-of-icy-white-delight/</span></span>

somestars said...

Uh ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ... son starts a new job downtown next week.  Maybe he should book a room for the week at the Hilton?

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I will watch the clippers closely, but they look anemic.  The first system for Friday looks like it COULD drop 1-2 inches in this area as it tracks to our south and we are on the north side.  The second clipper looks more like snow showers as it tracks to the north ouf our area leaving the best dynamics and snows in PA north of York.  

Friday Clipper  Likely accumlation 1.5 inches   (possible 3 inches)

Saturday Clipper Likely accumualtion a trace (max possbile 1 inch)

This is based on current data and will have a look tonight to see if there COULD be any surprises.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I am generally sheltered from the wind here so I am lucky in that reagard.  I have heard of these in open area, but have never noticed one myself.  Pretty cool. 

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Would not go that far.  These COULD be FANTASY storms in terms of the impact on our area.  If the storm cuts the lakes we get rain.  If it treks really far to the west we get nothing.  Just informing you of the potential.  The Euro has been the best overall model in my opinion, but it has still been putrid this year, so all it is at this point is a RED FLAG to pay attention.  Treat weather forecasts on Monday like American express cards, don't leave home without them! (re:Tuesday potential).  My philosphy toward storms is watch them until you can eliminate them as  snow or ice threats. 

Jen O said...

Still early too....don't worry yourself over it until Sunday-Monday :) It would be nice for another whopper though..

hocoKtchr said...

They are calling this storm "Carmageddon" on the  ch 9 News in DC!  Clever....too bad those folks who were stuck didn't listen to Andy and the FF Team!  =-O

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I live on a virtual mountain at a 1000 ft elevation.  No flat expanses here, but the yard is pretty flat all things considered!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Now it will be funny, if some tv people jump on one of these storms that there is not complete agreement on or poor data samples and HYPE the life out if it, then nothing happens.  That would be the icing on the cake!  You know if there is good agreement on the next one that will be the top story on the news and the HYPE machine will get rolling after this last debacle. 

somestars said...

Oh I lovvvvvvvvvvvvvvvve whoppers! =-O

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

BP,

My driveway slopes down until it flattens out at the garage.  It is  75 ft long by 22 feet, with another 12 ft parking pad, so a section is 34 ft wide with the pad.  There is no way I could shovel that.  It took me almost 2 hours today with cleaning the truck and driveway.  The snow blower I have is self propelled and has nice power to it.  It cost just over $1000, but it was worth it and cheaper than the Hondas that are about 2500 to 3000 in its size range.  Honda's are the best, but this ain't Buffalo so my blower has been a life saver.  It is heavy so you have to turn it on to push it up hill.  If it wasn't self propelled it would be useless because of its weight.  It does have some nice kick though.  Hondas are the best, but Craftsman are the best bang for the buck!  Mine is a 28 inch Craftsman and has gotten me out of some monstrous snows.

somestars said...

Thanks Andy.  I'll calm down ... until Monday. =-X

Rufus79 said...

Time?

Rufus79 said...

special orders don't upset us ;)

somestars said...

GOOD!  i'd like a 12 inch snowfall, please -- extra fluffy, easy on the ice.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

It is currently 6:43 pm eastern standard time  :-P

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Snow showers will arrive just in time for the morning rush.  This will be a fast mover.  5:00 am-7:00.  It looks anemicm but they can sometimes surprise.  This thing will move out around lunch time.  Looks like 1.5 or liss based on the speed it is moving now.  Speedy Gonzalez Clipper of 2011.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

<span>Snow showers will arrive just in time for the morning rush.  This will be a fast mover.  5:00 am-7:00 start.  It looks anemic but they can sometimes surprise.  This thing will move out around lunch time.  Looks like 1.5 to a coating based on the speed it is moving now.  Speedy Gonzalez Clipper of 2011.</span>

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

With all of the salt on the roads and likely lighter traffic volume, there should be no real issues on the already main highways. Worst case scenario some slick spots. 

Anne Province said...

My husband is going to Atlanta for the week... so I can guarantee we will have a storm and I predict we will lose power... always happens when he goes out of town!!!

Tina said...

LOL!!  My smarty pants reply was gonna be "time, please."

::snort::

BioPat said...

Thanks Andy!  I will share this info with my husband.  When we bought our snowblower in '97 it was over $600.00 so we are anticipating spending approximately $1000.  for the self propelled model that will meet our future needs.  We have a long narrow driveway built into a hill so there is nowhere to throw snow without it tumbling right back on you.  Hopefully as we look for our replacement model we'll identify one that has provided as much good dervice as our current model.  People don't want to believe that global warming is occuring, just the nature of these brutal winters and crazy worldwide weather is proof enough for me.

BioPat said...

Man, isn't that the truth.  As you noted they all use the same models why is it they are so reluctant to issue a real accurate forecast.  Some of these "actors" that are referred to as meteoroligists have caused some serious problems; I just can't begin to understand how they still have jobs. 

BioPat said...

Maybe this will move the school officials to make a decision to keep schools closed on Friday.  Our hill is still in pretty rough shape.  As I keyboard there is a car continuing to spin wheels on the hill that has been stuck for the past 30 minutes.

BioPat said...

Highway traffic should move easily; however the side streets are still snow/ice covered even a small amount of snow will create a real mess. 

Tina said...

Because the people (at least in the DC area) are blaming fellow drivers.  It's rare to find a comment on the poor forecasting.

"Those people who aren't smart enough to AVOID the terrible weather they have been talking about since 4am this morning should lose their licenses."

http://www.wtop.com/public/comment/group/cms/2247942?nid=25

Since 4am??  Seriously??  

hocoKtchr said...

Knowing HoCo, they will send us in early tomorrow...you know how that goes!  Geesh! 

Paul ( Owings Mills ) said...

Well Andy I do apreaciate all the updates....This site alone gives you so much information...But I have to say you do make it more interesting and your fan's me included do respect your opinion, and after that great call yesterday including Justin B...I will now be a true follower and pass the word on once next weeks storm draws closer and the possiable out comes....  I do hope for another BIGGIE!!!!!,,,Some say Im nuts...but It is winter ...so bring on the snow...

Paul ( Owings Mills ) said...

They only bad thing is I have lots of friends that have been without power since last night....I do feel bad for them...

hocoKtchr said...

Montgomery Co and Cecil Co (and lots of VA counties) have closed for Friday already.....the question is...will the rest of the dominoes fall? 

NeedaSnowday said...

Some roads in HoCo not even plowed I heard... here is a cool lil link for those living/working in HoCo

http://howardcountymdpublic.eroadtrack.com/

Snow Lover said...

Balt county tomorrow?!!!

Lori said...

Andy, your driveway sounds almost exactly like mine except mine is 65 feet long and not quite as wide but does have a good size parking pad off the garage. Last year during the December blizzard, the darn snowblower would not start no matter what we tried. Wound up shoveling the whole driveway by hand and then had to go to in-laws house and shovel his driveway too (thankfully not as big). Talk about an aching back and aching arms!! I think I saw that darn snowblower flip us the bird and laugh while we were shoveling GRRR :(

ho co sub said...

Wow, VERY useful!! Thanks for posting!

NeedaSnowday said...

You bet!  Found it a few years ago... it has changed a lil bit, but yes, helpful!

BioPat said...

Baltimore County Circuit courts aren't opening until 10 am, I think that might provide some insight into a pending decision.

Snow Lover said...

agreed...im thinking a closing..especially with the uncertainty in timing of this clipper

BioPat said...

I think that's probably the decision we'll hear; wouldn't be nice to think they'd do that tinight.

BioPat said...

I'm betting AACO 2 hour late; Balto, Harford, and Howard - closed.

Snow Lover said...

agreed, although aaco has the most power outages....

BioPat said...

Well we'll just have to wait and see, if the powers that be agree with ou rguess.

NeedaSnowday said...

wow.. bold call for HoCo... ;) =-O :)

Rachel said...

Just got the call from Red Lion SD...2 hour delay.  Very surprised. We are all shoveled out, tired.  The kids need the delay just to rest up from playing in the snow all day.

BioPat said...

I think that clipper due in tomorrow morning, and slick morning surfaces will push the decision.  In a noon news discussion, it was noted that Catonsville and west got 12+ from the storm.  I do not think the walkways and school lots will be ready.

Amy said...

As much as I dread the expanding of the school year, I desperately need the time to get grades done so I would be happy for another closure.  2 hour delay is probably the minimal response.  I checked the little map of where areas have been plowed and it looks like most of the county has been, but that doesn't mean the roads are passable.

Amy said...

Knowing HoCo it will fall at 5am tomorrow.

Brandon Meiklejohn said...

when is the clipper supposed to start?

Amy said...

Andy said between 5-7am. Which is great timing if you're wanting a closing.

BioPat said...

7 am - noon

Brandon Meiklejohn said...

where do you find that map?

Leslie said...

I'm thinking closed in Ho Co.

Rachel said...

I have questions for those more knowledgeable with NWS and the weather than I am...which pretty much means anyone posting here. :)   I just read the forecast for our region.

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
<pre>NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 PM EST THU JAN 27 2011"

Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY???? Why is this? Is this the possibility
the local NWS has completely dropped the ball on the storms for our area
and a neighboring NWS is taking over?
Maybe I am being a little hopeful here, but really curious to know if anyone
has an answer to this.
</pre>

Rufus79 said...

Westchester looked so good this evening when we went by????

Rufus79 said...

I meant not....lol my brain works faster than my fingers

Rufus79 said...

I think Ba Co was 4:50 today...am...they'll wait till tomorrow

Rufus79 said...

:-P I knew you were gonna do that LOL! Just back from Silver Spring 29 was pretty good.

Jason Mitchell said...

My best guess to this is that State College NWS is temporarily experiencing problems, and the Binghamton NWS is posting for them. I remember this happened at least once a few months back for the Sterling VA NWS, and one of their discussions was issued by the Mount Holly NJ NWS.

Forecaster Jason

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

A LOT of guys are at the weather conf. in Seattle.  Also, some sites crashed the other day due to high traffic becasue of the unfolding storm.  A double WHAMMY!

Mr. Foot - Dundalk, MD said...

Paul: Thank you for the nice comments and I wanted you to know the team is honored to have Andy as an advisor. When the students are in high impact analysis mode, Andy is an excellent resource who keeps us all well appraised of the "next big thing" and we know many people look forward to his insight!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...





<span>WARNING</span>

THIS POST IS RATED NC 17.  IF YOU HAVE A HEART CONDITION DO NOT READ! IF YOU ARE EASILY OFFENDED YOU WOULD NOT READ ANYTHING I WRITE ANYWAY ( Iam genrerally a PG 13 kind of guy though)


I have been looking at the data coming in this evening for next week.  Looking at the amount of female versus male posters the last few days and have come to one conclusion.  Too many male (powder hounds) are experiencing  A CIALIS MOMENT, and have had an EXTREME reaction where they where forced to consult their Physicians, especially after looking at what the models are trying to show.   =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O   You like snow?  You probably won't by next weekend when you are in traction AFTER shoveling endless mounds onto the side of your driveway.  WOW.  I will keep it simple and a level head. 

There ARE SOME EXTREME SCENARIOS showing up on models lately.  If you have travel plans ANYTIME between Tuesday and Satrurday advise all involved to pay VERY close attention to the weather.  SNOWMAGEDDEN II?  I don't know, because I don't tust the LYING models at this time range, but their "LIES" have raised my eyebrows (noting else of course). 

If you are not a weather watcher next week is the time to be.  If you are then strap on in, becasue next week might bring something special.  Mr. Foot and his team will keep you updated.  I will have my eyes glued to the screen.  We have some time yet to hammer out what is true and what is MODEL FANTASY, but my eyebrows are RAISED!

JULIE said...

UGH Where'd the Andy NC-17 posting go, was reading it now gone? Was getting excited :-P

Mary in Hydes said...

Mr Foot we miss all of your comments on here as well as all the other forecasters.  I love the comments on here.  But I do miss you and the guys posting your own thoughts.  Just wanted you should know.   But you all are doing a fabulous job with the site as well as Facebook.  I also wanted you to know that I get a awful amount of comments from people when I wear my Foots Forecast t-shirt.

Chet Ross said...

Thankful my neighbor showed up with a snowblower today. I shoveled long enough to pull a muscle! I am getting old...thought 30 would be a seamless transition

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

BP – I have an Ariens 27 inch SB. I bought it last year after the first big snow in my new home with steep drive. My sister in western mass has a 10 year old Ariens SB which starts every time – still has the original battery. They are well made, reliable and made in the USA. I got mine on the for 1k. My advice is that a bigger motor is better with wet or deep snow no matter what brand you buy.

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

Oh yeah the light is nice for working at night or mid-storm when needed!

terpguy said...

Fallston-0525

Closed in Maryland: Cecil, Harford, BalCo, Carroll, Mont

Late in Maryland:  AA, HoCo, Charles, Fred, PG (some closed), QA, Wash

terpguy said...

Always double-check! 

Now, don't you feel better that you got your work done?

hocoKtchr said...

Good Morning all!  I will happily wear my Foot's Forecast t-shirt as I head into work....2 hours late!  :-P

I am happy that we have another possibility on Tuesday....just around the corner!  Faith in the Flakes! O:-)
(I will not be as happy in June, I am sure!)

Rufus79 said...

if you look at the weather bug forecast there are many days with a chance of snow on them :)

Rufus79 said...

Where was the weather balloon that got taken out? Maybe there wasn't just one. And yes don't we have a few folks at that conference :)

BioPat said...

Be careful driving in today.  I'm not sure HoCo made the right decision, however with more snow looming that 3rd week in June is going to be "fun-filled" in HoCo.

BioPat said...

Thanks, always looking for guidance when making a significant purchase.  I have not heard of that particular model; where would they be sold in the Balto area?

Rufus79 said...

Just an invite to all...Matthew's 1600 Frederick road Catonsville, MD 21228. Be there about 7 if you want to stop by....the more the merrier :)

Also anybody who enjoys the Catonsville parade and Fireworks the dance that benefits this event is being held march 5th @ Catonsville Armory Tickets are $35 and I'll be up @ SHOP Catonsville(813 Frederick Road) tomorrow selling tickets 10-1!!!! Dance is a hoot...Appalooza will be the band this year :)

Drive safe everyone

BioPat said...

Just got back from Sam's Bagels, downtown Catonsville; they are wiped out at 7:30 am, evryone must be on withdrawal.  The main roads are in good shape, but side streets are absolutely terrible.  My hill is a rocky sheet of ice that dumps onto Edmondson Ave.  As I drove down Edmondson, I continued to find the side streets in horrible condition.  Good call Balto Co!

BioPat said...

Hey Rufus, I was planning on joining you all for awhile tomorrow evening.  As I recall, you said the bar area. Do you have a Foot's T shirt to wear so we can identify you?

BioPat said...

My husband just called to tell me he got to school.  He said the main roads were ok, but the side streets in really bad shape.  Our street is barely drivable

hocoKtchr said...

I haven't left yet....but will be getting on the road shortly. Luckily my school is on a fairly "main" road, so hopefully it will be a smooth trip!  Thanks for the updates on the roads though. It is appreciated!

Rufus79 said...

No I have to get one and yes bar area...I'll post tomorrow what I'll be wearing :)

hocoKtchr said...

Starting to snow lightly now in Frederick, and it looks like it is in HoCo by the radar too!  That won't hype my kindergarteners up any more now, will it????  O:-)    Too bad we can't take them out to play in the snow!  That would be fun!  But not in today's world....someone might get "hurt"!  >:o

Tina said...

The excuses continue:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/bs-md-snow-forecast-0128-20110127,0,6911062.story

Meteorologists say this week's crippling rush-hour snowstorm was a nightmarish mash-up of an unusually dynamic storm, some uncommonly sticky flakes and a pinch of bad luck.

terpguy said...

If they had only read Foots Forecast... 8-)

Rachel said...

Thanks.  I didn't even think of the conference.  I got overly excited when I saw a neighboring NWS forecasting versus State College.  As discussed many times before, they are absolutely horrible for our area.

terpguy said...

OK, A NEW CONTEST:  We might just be getting a major Wx event on GROUND HOG DAY!  The pun-possibilties are endless!!

Please go to: http://terpguystuff.blogspot.com/

and play NAME THAT STORM.

Yeah, yeah...it's over five days out..but let's have some fun!

terpguy said...

<span>OK, A NEW CONTEST:  We might just be getting a major Wx event on GROUNDHOG DAY!  The pun-possibilties are endless!!  
 
Please go to: http://terpguystuff.blogspot.com/  
 
and play NAME THAT STORM.  
 
Yeah, yeah...it's over five days out..but let's have some fun!</span>
<span></span><span><span>– </span>Edit</span><span><span> – </span>Moderate</span>

BioPat said...

Great idea, this will be a great dinner and class discussion.  I'll be sending my entries soon!

Jen O said...

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

Matt_74 said...

BP:   Ariens makes really good snow blowers.  I have one as well and they are really great machines.  Then tend to run a little pricy, but they truly are the cadillac of snow blowers.  I suggest you stop by the library or get a one month subscription to ConsumerReports.com to check out the latest reviews.  You can buy them at Home Depot and I got mine there a few years ago on clearance for 30% off at the end of the season with little or no snow.  Had a Lowes 10% off coupon which they honored as well! However, stores tend to sell out of snow blowers right after we get a big snow storm and they generally do not get more in stock until next season.

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

Finally one of those green blobs is heading righ for Woodmore!!!

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

Perhaps we will pick up an inch or two that past us in the last storm.  :)

Jen O said...

Possibly, especially with the radar looks..

somestars said...

Hope everyone is enjoying today's serene snowfall.  This kind of day reminds me of when I was in school -- snow on the ground from a previous storm and new snow falling.  It snowed a lot then because ... it was winter.  It might snow a couple of times a week, once in a while a BIG storm, but usually just several inches.  Now each snowfall is an event because it's so rare.  Sad.

On the WJZ morning show, there were rumblings of a potential major weather event next week.  Quite a change from last week's nay-saying about a big storm (the old "mostly rain" dodge). Lesson learned?  We'll see.

terpguy said...

Two entries already!!  Thanks!

(see post below)

ho co sub said...

Just responded. Love the woodpecker picture!!

ho co sub said...

I'm unsure at this point. Seems to me that when the mets at the local stations (JB an exception) jump on a storm too far in advance, we DON'T get it. I don't have any clear memory or hard evidence to back this up. Just a feeling! I think they mess it up for us. =/ LOL. I'd rather keep it quiet for another day or two so as not to scare the snow away! ;)

Tina said...

Heh, everyone at work (after my "secret" knowledge about how this past Wednesday would go) now wants to know what's gonna happen next Tues/Wed.  Lordy.  I keep telling 'em Foot's Forecast and JB... you can't go wrong. 

::pulling out hair::

Tina said...

Jeez, kids could still be in school for the 4th of July!

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/45062/groundhog-day-storm-may-affect.asp

somestars said...

I was thinking that we might experiencing a greatly reduced (or obliterated) Spring Break.

Amy said...

In HoCo that would probably be a no-no.  Many parents tend to plan fancy trips around that time.  Our attendance would be less than stellar.  Although, it would technically get me out of school before July.

terpguy said...

What Amy said, RE: BalCo.  At least when I worked there. Parents AND teachers went nuts (and kids and teachers didn't show up to school) the last time they took Spring Break.  Long, long time ago (in a galaxy far, far away....??)

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

I have to laugh this winter; this cartoon shows the current pattern Heavy snow just north of route 50 – snow dome in full effect for this part of PG and AA counties! (I know it is too soon – just seems like ground hog day repeating over and over)

Rufus79 said...

What is the difference tween a Miller and a Miller B? any thoughts on Tuesday?...I should ask sunday night :)

Ground Hog day storm...wood chuck...hmmmm le t me think on that.

Anyone heading into heart of Catonsville the power was out when I left work @ 5:20...traffic lights out and not sure the restaurants have power...call ahead :)

somestars said...

True, experienced that as well.  But if they are told NOW, they couldn't complain.  Well ... they COULD complain ... someone always DOES.  If not spring, then they'll complain that they scheduled vacations right after school was SUPPOSED to let out.
Let's have school all year, then NO one can complain about missed vacations.  Wait .. then EVERYONE would complain about missed vacations.
Glad I'M not running the school system!

Amy said...

Don't know if you're aware. but for this calendar year they tried to strip spring break back to good Friday-Easter Monday.  There were over 700 calls to the board to reject that proposed calendar. I wish they would just build days into the calendar.  If we don't need them, let us out earlier!  No one ever got upset at getting out of school early

Tina said...

Now Accuweather (HM) has thoughts about a possible second storm later next week.  Hummm.

My husband has a feeder tray on his office window.  Mr.  Downy Woodpecker comes every day.  Alone.  Today, he brought his girlfriend.  Spring planning has started for him already!  ;)

Lori said...

There is civil unrest on HM's fan page...you have to have an updated rabies shot to enter. I just clicked my heels and said "there's no place like home" and ended up here again :-D

Tina said...

If you mean Facebook fan page, I've not been there.  I've heard there are, er, issues.  Rabies shot is pretty funny, however. 

I'm only talking about his blog on Accuweather.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/45064/clippers-followed-one-perhaps-two-major-snowstorms-next-week.asp

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Right now the data the modela are basing their forecasts on has not been greatly sampled in the pacific.  HPC indicates they will request recon flight to attempt to fill the data hole and have better sampling.  The models currently are showing a LESS snowy scenario and more of a HEAVY RAIN and FREEZING RAIN event.  It is too early to say what will happen, but it appears likely that there will be a very high impact event.  If you buy the Euro version, we are talking about mostly rain now.  The models continue their ususal flip flop.  HBy Sunday night we should have a better idea of what the storm will do.  If it cuts to the lakes like today's modles shwo then mostly freezing rain to rain.

NWS BALT WASH:

<pre>The storm system will eventually track into the Tennessee Valley
Tuesday night before passing by to our west Wednesday. The
combination of isentropic lift and forcing from the storm system
will likely bring more significant precipitation to the area during
this time. There is still a good deal of uncertainty with the exact
track and timing of this system...and also exactly how much
low-level cold air will remain in place. As of now...it does appear
that there is a good chance for mixed precipitation during this
time. Details will be fine tuned as the event draws closer.
</pre>

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

<pre><span>As of now...it does appear
that there is a good chance for mixed precipitation during this
time. Details will be fine tuned as the event draws closer.

</span>We know the models have been putrid this year and we are still 5 days away so stay tuned!</pre>

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

<pre><span>As of now...it does appear
that there is a good chance for mixed precipitation during this
time. Details will be fine tuned as the event draws closer.

</span>We know the models have been putrid this year and we are still 5 days away so stay tuned!</pre>

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

<pre>As of now...it does appear
that there is a good chance for mixed precipitation during this
time. Details will be fine tuned as the event draws closer.



I am certain we will have many surprise and flip flops in the next few days and all solutions
are possible. I would not buy
the Accuweather HEAVY SNOW maps yet, as things are not pointing to that at this time.
The signals from the current model output are SCREAMING ICE STORM. But if they
are based on incomplete data the model runs wil change. </pre>

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

This is the 6th map I have looked at from Accuweather that has put this region in a heavy snow storm.  We have had 1 snow storm this season with heavy snow.  Not saying it isn't possible, but it is too early to paint that picture now.  If you made a map based on todays' data, you would have to say freezing rain to rain, with an inch or two of snow to start.  We all know this may change by Monday night.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

EDIT: modela to models. 

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Miller B is a low pressure system that tracks into the ohio valley and transfers enrgy to the coast where a seconday low forms off the mid atlantic and tracks up the coast.  A miller A is a storm that forms in the gulf or off the far southeast coast and treks straight up the coast.  Miller B's are terrible for snow storms in this area,  They produce snow in NY and New England and ussually dry slot us, or sometimes give us a mixed mess before punding the North East above Philly.  You can get a good snow from a Miller B here, but it is VERY rare.  Miller B is usually bad news for this region if you ike snow. 

Kyle G said...

I just came from HM's fan page... wow!  Not cool.  I don't know what everyone is freaking out about.  At this range the models are ONLY good at predicting a "storm," but terrible at predicting (1) how much (2) where (3) exactly when and (4) what kind of precip. 

Even Henry (who I think is great overall) is flopping back and forth from his own map. He has snow for most of MD from his map this morning, but states on his Fan Page later in the day that it'll be north of Altoona.  This is silly really. 

Something else to keep in mind is that he has not received any substantial snow this year and is more likely to wishcast for this storm.

As Andy states, we just simply won't know until Sunday night at the earliest. 

Paul ( Owings Mills ) said...

Ok so Ice stroms, Rain , Snow....If my memory serve's me correctly wasnt that the same thing everyone started to say this time last week about this past storm.....I really Think Andy and a few others are correct in saying ...Let's just wait until Sunday and see what the modles start to show then...But I do hope for more of a Snow Storm...That Ice can do alot of damage...

Kyle G said...

You know, even the following phrase is kind of silly at this point.  "The system WILL track...to our west."

<span>
<pre> The storm system will eventually track into the Tennessee Valley
 
Tuesday night before passing by to our west Wednesday.
</pre>
</span>

hocoKtchr said...

I think HoCo switched to the 1st inclement makeup day...2nd, etc instead of "building them in" because once we did not use them, and we did not get them back! It was a HUGE fight between HCEA and the BOE....of course, that too was in a galaxy far far away....at least 18 years ago, maybe 20 years?  Anyway, it sort of is the same thing...just feels better to get a day back if it isn't used, then to add them on. But....if you don't get them back..it feels even worse!  >:o   Here's to teaching some new 4th of July activities!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Paul I agree.  This is a VERY differs greatlty from the last one though.  The lows was treking to our south and that was a favorable track.  The problem was the lack of cold air.  Fortunately the modles over did the warmth and the storm was able to tap the cold.  The problem here is, there is plenty of cold, but the track to the west of the mountains is a disaster if you like snow.  The Arctic high will feed cold into the region but the counter clokcwise flow of the storm to our west will scream in strong SW winds pumping warm air in the mid levels of the atmosphere creating rain, while the high funnels cold at ground level allowing that rain to freeze.  Eventually, th SW flow scours out the low level cold and you have rain.  If the models are correct (I don't buy it yet) thenwe are looking at a potentail heavy ice storm to rain. 

Lori said...

Yep, I'm telling you, those people are flippin' crazy over there =-O  Reading those posts is like having 500 voices going off in your head at one time. They need to make caffeine illegal up north...

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Paul, I agree.  This storm differs greatly from the last storm however.  The last storm appeared to have little cold air and that is why it looked like a rain threat.  The models over did the warmth and we had just enough cold.  The trek of the last low was always favorable, but the lack of cold appreared to be the problem.  Here, thre is plenty of cold and an arctic high, unfortunately the trek is the problem if the models are correct (they will likely flip flop by Sunday).  If the low goes west of the Apps, then the counter clockwise circulation will set up warm air advection from the southwwest.  It will be like a heat pump kicking warm air over a dome of cold air at ground lever creating what is call CAD (cold air daming).  The high will funnel in cold air at the surface, but the middle of the atmosphere will warm and allow for rain to fall that will freeze on contact.  Eventually, the strong southwers wind will scour out the cold and you get rain.  The problem here is the trek.  That storm cannot go west of the mountains if you want snow.  That is what today's lying models are all showing.

BioPat said...

 Wow, everything in Catonsville went dark about 4:30.  There was a bad accident on Frederick Road right in front of McNabb's Funeral Home, but they didn't acquire any new residents as a result.  However, the accident and loss of power were almost simultaneous.  I think a transformer may have been taken out by a falling tree; wow did it mess up a Friday evening in beautiful downtown Catonsville.  The trees and lines down as a result of this weeks storm is much worse that damage from 2010's twin blizzards.
 I am not getting too excited about the pending storm.  If the weather folks have jumped on this 5 days out I am somewhat skeptic of their forecasting accuracy.  Like all these storms we need to wait until at least Sunday to examine what is really setting up for our area.  With temps in the low to mid 30's it could be a mixed bag of anything.  Time, Time, Time.

BioPat said...

Your knowledge base and ability to break the information down into lay terms is such an asset to this blog; Thanks for your dynamic input.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

All options are on the table here if you are a snow lover.  I am only reporting what today's data is showing, and it is not showing a big snow, but perhaps a crippling icestorm.  I hope for our sake, and trust as our experience has shown time and time again this winter there is a high probability that that will change.  TIME WILL TELL.   

terpguy said...

From this morning:



<span><span>OK, A NEW CONTEST:  We might just be getting a major Wx event on GROUNDHOG DAY!  The pun-possibilties are endless!!    
   
Please go to: http://terpguystuff.blogspot.com/    
   
and play NAME THAT STORM.    
   
Yeah, yeah...it's over four days out..but let's have some fun!</span> 
</span>

Kyle G said...

Well said!  Also, it's fun to point out that the GFS run this morning didn't even have a storm, period! ;)

The snow cover may also throw off the models.  If they say freezing rain for a little while, I say freezing rain for a long while (given that our snow doesn't melt away by then).

BioPat said...

You could always plan floats for July 4th parades 8-) 8-)

Kyle G said...

I agree with BioPat, thanks for putting in the time to lay things out!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

You are right. snow cover helps in many situations, but not so much in this one.  If you get a wound up wacko low to our west like some models have shown, that will give you a STRONG southwest flow and it will quickly TORCH us at ground level minimizing the snow cover's impact.  We need that storm to our south and east.  West is bad becasue it is a few inches of snow to heavy freezing rain, then rain.  We don't want the storm to get too strong early and go to our west or it is bad times here.  Now if it gets real strong and way west that would torch us fast and minimize freezing rain.  We want snow, not freezing rain with low temps or we are in trouble in a bad way if there is an inch of freezing rain. 

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Things to watch for

1) strength and track of the low
2) strength and position of the high
3) amounts of QPF (liquid mositrue)

This could be a serious storm and everyone who has any plans to be on the roads needs to watch the EVER changing forecasts.  I hope that west track is a blip.

WE ARE WAIT AND SEE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND BETTER AGREEMENT.

Jen O said...

I have become an official weather nut! I'm even putting my extreme couponing on the back burner so I can get the latest dealio on the weather. My coupons are screaming my name for my attention....I love following weather now..lol.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

As we all know and Mr. Foot who has a strong left hook, steal toed boots, and surprise brass knuckles secreted in a hollowed out text book,  will tell you, the models stink outside of 48 hours,  so we are here debating and analizing outcomes that will change time and time again. 

Jen O said...

I'm not banking on anything yet until 48 hours. And even then...I will go with the final call at about 24 hours...too much time in between for things to change. It's way early right now

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I agree, especially THIS WINTER. 

hocoKtchr said...

Oh no, say it ain't so!  Another NOWCAST storm...open your window blinds and see what is there....snow, ice, or rain!  I'll stick with "faith in the flakes" and see what really happens!  O:-)

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

No matter what happens it will be a nowcast storm of sorts.  The hits keep coming against a snow unfortunately tonight.  I hope we can find a way to trend this to snow, but as of this momment this is NOT A SNOWSTORM.  It has all of the signature of a heavy ice to rain storm.  Too many questions yet to be resolved at this stage, but it appears we are looking at a lakes cuter storm which will be 70-80% liquid.  Question is, how much of that liquid falls, how much freezes?   These are setails that need to be worked out.  AGAIN, not set in stone, will likely change, but as of today and tonight thus far, we are not facing a snowstorm threat, it is a potenially SEVERE ICESTORM THREAT.  At 5 days out, please keep in mind it is just a THREAT, NOT A FORECAST.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

NWS BALT WASH

<pre>The storm system will eventually track into the Tennessee Valley
Tuesday night before passing by to our west Wednesday. The
combination of isentropic lift and forcing from the storm system
will likely bring more significant precipitation to the area during
this time. There is still a good deal of uncertainty with the exact
track and timing of this system...and also exactly how much
low-level cold air will remain in place.
As of now...it does appear
that there is a good chance for mixed precipitation during this
time. Details will be fine tuned as the event draws closer.</pre>

somestars said...

Here is what Mr. Foot ALWAYS says: predict the high and you predict the storm.
I have NO iidea what that means.

Chet Ross said...

So the local met sez rain/sleet/snow...what is the real forecast???

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

<pre>The storm system will eventually track into the Tennessee Valley
Tuesday night before passing by to our west Wednesday. The
combination of isentropic lift and forcing from the storm system
will likely bring<span> more significant precipitation</span> to the area during
this time. There is still a good deal of uncertainty with the exact
track and timing of this system...and also exactly how much
<span>low-level cold air will remain in place</span>. As of now...it does appear
that there is a good chance for <span>mixed precipitation</span> during this
time. Details will be fine tuned as the event draws closer.</pre>

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