Eight is enough

(a reference to the 1977-81 sitcom, and the next storm,
to be the 8th major event this winter)

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4:15 PM EST 2/3/2011
While roof collapses and power outages plague recovery in Northeast, and the Midwest went into Arctic icelock...the next storm system is already firing up a stunning swath of Winter Storm Warnings covering the entire Texas GULF COAST. Subtropical locales from Brownsville, Texas to Lake Charles, LA are expecting snow, sleet and freezing rain tonight into Friday. The cold front that swept through Texas following the Groundhog Day Blizzard some folks might call a "Blue Norther"* and with good reason. Before the wintry precipitation gets underway in the south, bone-shattered cold with hard freeze warnings have already been dished out across the southern states. (image from Houston/Galveston, TX National Weather Service)

Now this is stranger than fiction: By the time this system arrives in the metro areas of Washington and Baltimore, it should be mostly rain-- (explain that if you will?) but in the hinterlands of southern and central Pennsylvania, a likely switch back to significant icing is anticipated.

TRACK & TIMING Indications are that precip for the Mid-Atlantic will not before school ends on Friday, but the Southeast-- not so lucky. It is likely that school systems from Louisiana to Georgia may be impacted at some point tomorrow. By Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic, a cold driving rain is expected south of the PA/MD line. In places like York, Lancaster, Harrisburg, York, Allentown, Williamsport - snow and sleet is expected, changing to another miserable round of freezing rain before ending.

After reviewing the latest HPC ice accumulation probability maps, we sense you may have a similar reaction my Mother had whenever I would get sassy or bossy with her. She'd put one hand on her hip, point with the other hand, and say sternly... "Now LOOK." When I got the "now look" comment, it... was over. So we understand when many readers in the Mid-Atlantic are going to get testy and have a 'now look' reaction to this 60% probability of greater than .01" icing chart for Saturday into Sunday.

BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE! By next Tuesday into Wednesday, another storm system on the heels of this one looks to impact the entire East coast once again. We have increasing concern this second system may be rather snowy widespread, and significant. The exact details of timing, track and temperature remain too uncertain this far out to relay specifics.

Our Long Range Analysis Team is crunching the possibilities and will report back in more detail later today on system # 1, and on Friday for system # 2. Does it feel like you are living out a portion of the Groundhog Day movie...the entire winter? (Forecasters Foot, Jason M., Terence K., Greg J., Mintong N.)

*Blue Norther article written by H. Michael Mogil of Naples, FL. Mr. Mogil is author of Extreme Weather (2007, 2010) one of our Adjunct Advisors, founder of How The Weatherworks, Inc., and Coordinator of the NOAA-grant funded CAREERS/Weather Camp program headquartered at Howard University in Washington, DC.