Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Winter 2011: The real-life
version of "Groundhog Day"

4:30 PM EST Wednesday, 2/2/2011 Though the winds are still blowing snow across Lakeshore Drive and Snnooo...klahoma has Arctic air sweeping down the plains, you had better put another lawg on de far because "Fantastic February" ain't waitin'. This is a brief pre-dinner update to give all y'all something to talk about over the evening meal: Gander on down to the HPC "Surface Low Tracks" and repeat after me... "Lookey what we have here?"

Our Long Range Group has been out panning for gold in model analysis land. Boy if they didn't find some nuggets that I reckon y'uns might want to know more about! (Note: This is my attempt to lighten everyone up after a ripping storm with my weak imitation of Tow Mater-speak from Pixar's 2006 film, Cars.) We'll share more about this after the young'uns have hit the hay.
(Mr. Foot- Dundalk, MD)

Talk about True Grit...

1:45 PM EST Wednesday, 2/2/2011 This Groundhog Day greets many parts of the eastern & central U.S. with either blinding snow, paralyzing ice or torrential rain and high winds. This one storm has directly impacted half the U.S. population, and with 20.2 inches at Chicago's O'Hare, the world's second busiest airport is at a standstill, producing untold spillover effects for the rest of us. With over 100,000 without power in the Midwest, 6,000+ flights canceled nationwide, and a million-plus students home from school, it is fair to say most of us are reeling and yearning for normal weather...soon.

As Confucius might be saying, we certainly have "a heavy load on a long journey" ahead. For those followig the Midwest on that journey, we offer this inside look: The Chicago Tribune, The Puma Weather Center , a new regional report in the Central U.S. tab, and DaytonWeather.org for the Ohio Valley. For a glimpse of weekend storm possibilities, visit the newly updated Winter Stormcast Zone, if you dare.

DIRECT ACCESS TO TEAM REPORTS  
Visit our "Every move you make" post for links to all our zones and forecasters from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and Southeast. You can also click the tabs above by region.
   
From 1.0" of ice in Indiana, a nearly 20 inches of snow for Chicago  or tornado watches and severe thunderstorms along the Gulf coast, countless thousands of silent servants have shown "True Grit" in managing this storm. We salute the cadre of workers braving the elements to keep roads salted, hospitals functioning, are on standy to restore power, managing the operations centers, resucing stranded motorists or just keeping the grocery store stocked. Your efforts do not go unnoticed. Our team and readers appreciate your service.

Mattie Ross, the 14-year old heroine in the 2010 remake of the 1969 "old west" classic True Grit, remarks "you must pay for everything in this world, one way or another." Many of us under the long arm of this storm are have already paid dearly this winter. We hope the record will state all heeded warnings from the National Weather Service, and did not have to pay the highest price in the end. Our forecast team bids safety and security to those residents hunkered down tonight.

We urge those yet to see major effects to take this storm seriously. Know your Winter Storm Safety Tips, and if in a warned area during this event, we encourage you to remain indoors, off the roads and allow space and time for emergency crews to help those in need. (Photos: Upper left, a NYC resident digs out from the January 10-12 2011 storm, lower right, a recovery scene from the January 2009 ice storm)

TEAM REPORTS  You can also click the tabs featured above, the left sidebar links or these links for the Eastern U.S., Central U.S., and the Winter Stormcast Zone. (Forecaster Foot - Dundalk, MD)


57 comments:

hocoKtchr said...

I guess we will watch what happens overnight...or in the morning, as the case may be!  =-O

Stay safe eveyone!  C'mon temps...rise!  I hate ice!!! >:o
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Rachel said...

Boy, it's foggy out there.  Temps holding below freezing according to WeatherBug...28.2 up from 27.8 about a half hour ago. Does that mean the precip is moving in?

Be safe out there if you need to travel. It could be an interesting morning for those north of the M-D.

Leslie said...

Just rolled into New Market and it's raining and 33.

Mary in Hydes said...

Raining here right now.  32 degrees.  doesn't appear to be freezing

Tina said...

Steady rain in Gaithersburg.  No idea what temp it is, since a vicious late-fall collision between the sliding door and thermometer.  Not that it would have been accurate enough, regardless.  I did see, on Intellicast radar, that "pink" was becoming more prominent for the M-D line area.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USVA0731&animate=true

Mr. Foot - Dundalk, MD said...

Wonderful news- we have a silver lining to the dark cloud of this storm:
A forecaster apprentice has just submitted an excellent report for the Central U.S. and it was posted in this tab:
http://www.footsforecast.org/p/about-us.html
(which is actually the Central U.S. tab, just mis-named in the HTML... go take a look!)

terpguy said...

Fallston-0150

32.9°F, steady rain

terpguy said...

Fallson-0355

33.2°F
Precip ending, driveway ice covered

BioPat said...

Well, well, back to school on time no less.  When I returned from Towson last evening around 9 pm the heavy rain had begun.  At that point, the rain was mixed with sleet, however in the middle of the night I was awakened by the sound of heavy rain on the roof;  I knew, by its sound, it was all rain.  So we will be able to get the rest of this week in without interruption; a good way to get the third quarter moving. :-D

Rufus79 said...

Hey all what a nasty day but could have been worse if this had been ice. be careful and enjoy the rest of your day....Catonsville Katy will not see her shadow I'm guessing :)

Jen O said...

Phil did not see his shadow so an early spring is on the horizon...

Rufus79 said...

Still snow clinging to the trees....not much melt in the yard...hope things get a chance to dry out before the cold sets in tonight.

Jen O said...

2 hr delay here....not sure why when the sidewalks are ice rinks...

Rufus79 said...

If I were Phuil I'd have said hey I'm sleeping :) Poor Phil

terpguy said...

Fallston- 33.7° F  Light rain, untreated surfaces are icy.

Rachel said...

I was thinking the same thing. Sidewalks, driveway, truck is all ice.  Not sure what the side roads look like, but know the alley I need to get of is still ice.  The school district really confuses me. 

Jen O said...

Yeah I just walked...well tried to..out front to where the bus stop is...pure ice..not one trace of salt....amazing...

Jen O said...

Actually our road here is salted and it's just wet and slush....but tonight...whoa, watch out..

Jen O said...

Some ice pics from this morning

Rachel said...

I was just out to check on our ice situation.  The driveway is a solid sheet of ice.  One a slight incline.  It didn't even crack or crunch when I stepped on it.  Little concerned if I try to get out to take the kids to school, I may get into a dilemna.  The driveway has a sharp drop off on 2 sides...one that could tip the truck the a other nose dive.  But then I hate to have them walk...I know many will have not maintained their sidewalks.  The alley is still icy...but the weight of the truck woud break through easily. 

Matt_74 said...

Alright with this one now behind us, what's the storm this weekend going to bring?

PasadenaMatt said...

This weekend looks rainy.

Mr. Foot - Dundalk, MD said...

Hi Jen:  Thanks for the excellent pictures. If agreeable with you we placed one as the avatar for the Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast Zone and will credit you!

Jen O said...

Oh no problem Mr. Foot :) Thanks for the great honour...

Lori said...

Maybe his eyeballs were crusted over with ice ;)

Tina said...

Jen, get an agent... you're gonna be FAMOUS!!  8-)

Mr. Foot - Dundalk, MD said...

Hi Matt: A preliminary look at new ideas is posted in the Winter Stormcast Zone. More detail to be added later today.

Jen O said...

IKR...Justin is using on my other photos in his blog too...lol. I LOVE taking picutres

Matt_74 said...

Thanks Mr. Foot!

terpguy said...

Think that it was a big storm??

Check this out!

http://nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail.php?MediaID=640&MediaTypeID=1

Jason Mitchell said...

2:00 PM 2/2: 59° at my house in Huntingtown, MD. Now that's some warm air ahead of this cold front!

Forecaster Jason

terpguy said...

Fallston- Hight temp today (shady side of the house) 45.1°F.

Jen O said...

Wow, so quiet

Cathy in Bel Air said...

That is an awesome picture!  Looks like it's from the movie, "The Day After Tomorrow" !  =-O  

ho co sub said...

Went for a run after school and thoroughly enjoyed the 40-45 degree temps. I could really feel the warmth of the sun. Nice for a change! It sure is getting windy, though!

NeedaSnowday said...

OH MY!  Looking at Chicago on news...  WOW...  the cars are blanketed in snow on a MAJOR roadway!  INSANE!!!!

Rufus79 said...

tis windy and cold and the Ground Hog Celebration was cancelled :(

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

Had a good bit of ice this morning. but roads were in good shape.  Driveway was a bear again.  Snow pack has fared very well the last few days here, so I won't complain.    Now on to the weekend snow rain?  Time will tell. 

Paul ( Owings Mills ) said...

Great Pics Andy...Had a little ice out this was this am , but nothing like that...but it was enough to take down a tree or somthing and zap a transformer..I thought it was lighting until I relized my lights were out...but came back on in about 20mins...but all the traffic lights were out...

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

Some did not turn out well becasue I was in a rush to treat the driveway and get out of dodge,  But it was really icy.  At 2:58 we hit a high of 45.3 per my weather station.  Down to 30.9 now and it is like the tundra.  I figure if we can't get fresh snow might as well keep what we have.

BioPat said...

Whew, what happened???  The wind is so fierce and cold, that was quite a sudden switch from the balmy weather at 3PM.  Picked up the tarp placed on the brick steps to potect them from the ice, and the residual water on the tarp was already begining to crystalize.

Paul ( Owings Mills ) said...

yeah we still have some on the ground as well......could use a freash coat though...hopefully this weekend will put down something...

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

NWS STATE COLLEGE

<pre>Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
a wave of low pressure is expected to lift northward from the Gomex
along the ecoast Fri-Sat. There is uncertainty with this system
with a fairly large spread in terms of timing...however most
medium range model and ensemble guidance tracks this feature right along
the eastern Seaboard. Latest guidance continues to track this system
closer to the shore. The middle level flow upstream is
split...thus contributing to the low confidence in the details
at this time. However its looks as though central PA could be in the
favorable deformation area northwest of the low track as phasing 500 mb energy
takes on a slight negative tilt over the middle Atlantic. Gefs and GFS continues
to show cooling temperatures which should keep temperatures below zero
aloft which should keep this a snow event. There does look to be
strong moisture through out with a strong dendritic growth
zone...leading to a heavy wet snow. After this there is another
trough expected to move through the region late Tuesday </pre>

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

<pre>NWS BALT WASH

Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
hipres ovhd will make for a clear and cold Thursday night...with moderating
temperatures /maxima from u30s-l40s/ Friday as hipres quickly moves east.
Clouds will increases as moisture is send northeastward up eastern Seaboard ahead of
southern stream upper shortwave trough. Isentropic lift should allow for good covering
of precipitation Friday night into Sat...aided by coastal cyclogenesis off
middle-Atlantic coast. Temperatures appear cold enough at the surface to support -zr west
of I-95...as vertical temperature profiles show thick layer of warm air will
inhibit frozen precipitation aside from -ip chances at onset. Doesnt appear to
be a wedge situation...so temperatures should warm above freezing Sat morning...and
still great uncertainty in whether or not temperatures will be cold enough
overnight Friday to any prolonged period of freezing rain. With cold air advection on back
side of system...precipitation may mix/change to snow at end of event. Chances
for ice accretion and snow/sleet accumulation appear better across northwest
portions of County Warning Area. </pre>

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

There is a coastal system and track will mean everything.  There will be a rain snow line in our region.  Time will sort out the details. 

Paul ( Owings Mills ) said...

So its a 50/50 shot...Still a few days out...time to wait and see...and some wishful thinking.... :-D

somestars said...

Had to go to a BoE "thing" in Parkville tonight.  Driving there at 6:30, every time I saw a puddle or wet spot, I thought, "That wil be ice when I'm driving home later on ... THAT will be ice when I'm driving home." 
Driving home later on, it WAS ice.  The parking lot at the middle school was allllll ice when I left.  I'm just saying ... be careful when you venture out tonight or tomorrow morning!

hocoKtchr said...

Just heard from someone in HoCo that said the exact same thing!!!  Be careful all! 

hocoKtchr said...

bummer....

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

Rufus,

The cancellation of the gorundhog day celebration was a real bummer.  I was out all morning in the freezing rain standing watch with my shotgun.  That sucker never came out of his hole.  Guess he is frozen in like the rest of us.  Anyone know where I can get some dynamite?  Regardless of what that weasal might say, I'll take another 8 more weeks of winter.  ;)

Jen O said...

Nothing like a good snow to go with the 8 more weeks of winter. That's the only thing....if it's a longer winter, it MUST have a few GOOD snows..lol

Nick said...

Hmm... delay possible? I highly doubt the HoCo BOE will take all the black ice into account, though. I can't fathom going to 3 full days in a row :P

Tina said...

I just walked the pooch and it's extremely icy and we're down in Gaithersburg.  Told my other half, tomorrow will be a 2 hour delay.  That's not counting up northward.

Mary in Hydes said...

Everyone be careful out there!  Roads are very nasty here in the north county.  Black ice as well as huge slush puddles that will freeze.  Salt has been spread, but these are long stretches of roads.  Buses will have an issue in the am out here.  It was just 32 when i got home.

JULIE said...

Sooo grateful there was no ice here this a.m.!! Just rain in AACO and not even much. Snow still on the ground and sideways on the trees ;D hoping for another snow next week!

Rufus79 said...

It's just a stuffed animal she'd have to be shot with a Nerf gun or something...it's hokey but I go because my freinds dad is the top hat guy and my friend sings a few tunes :)

Rufus79 said...

I was surprised at how little the snow pack that we have melted with the rain and warmer temps yesterday...well back to winter, be careful on your driveway this morning.