"The answer is blowin' in the wind."
Written and recorded by Bob Dylan-1963
Recorded by Peter, Paul, and Mary
-1963

4:00 PM EST 2/15/2011
Yesterday's welcome warmth in some parts of the country was quickly neutralized by a strong cold front last night followed by notably cooler air to many states today. Wind and Small Craft Advisories, and Red Flag Warnings are posted for much of Florida and parts of Georgia to Alabama. In the west, the return of a stormy pattern is heralded by expanding Winter Weather Advisories and High Wind Warnings across the southern Sierra Nevadas. Image to the right is NWS forecasted temperatures for 4 PM Wednesday in the east and southeast.

By Wednesday in the east, a milder pattern will once again develop as that conveyor belt of southwest wind kicks. Widespread coverage of above normal temperatures is epxected to most areas east of the Rockies by Friday. For a look into the period beyond this weekend, please visit our Long Range Zone.

 

"That's What I'm Talking About."
- 2004 single by Austrialian singer Shannon Noll


7:45 AM EST 2/14/2011 Windy Valentine's greetings to all! We surmise you will love hearing that the welcome warm-up continues todqy with highs in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast reaching the upper 40's to low 50's. Even milder upper 50's and 60's are expected in the southeast. However, a torrent of snowmelt has been charging down the Red River and Mississippi Valleys as highs in the southern plains and Gulf coast climb back to the seasonal 70's later today.

MAKING SCIENCE FUN
If you are in the Delaware Valley looking for an engaging activity with the whole family, you can enjoy "How Things Work" Weekends at the Franklin Institute in Philadelphia. From 10 AM to 5 PM each Saturday and Sunday, as part of the Institute's special exhibit, you can immerse in the innovative world of Leonardo DaVinci.


For those new to our "fusion forecasting" approach, this feature is part of our team transition to Spring postings, where we begin highlighting regional activities, community and urban events, especially those with a science, environmental or public outreach focus. Details on how to get your local science center, event or program showcased on "the main site" will be forthcoming.

13 comments:

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

I actually welcome a thaw so I can get some yard work done.  Plenty of branches to pick up, and need to bring up more firwood with the tractor.  My tractor can't move on the hills here in the heavy snow.  I just took these at 2:15 today.  We have lost a good bit of depth the last couple of days.  It should all be gone by Wednesday. 

Paul ( Owings Mills) said...

Hey Andy thanks for all the updates and pictures you post..They can be very interesting ...I do however have a question and would like your opinion...I to am looking forward to a break from all the cold weather even though you have gotten alot more snow then us down here ..I still have patches of snow around and some pretty big snow/ices piles around here in The New Town area of Owings Mills ...But there has been talk and even you have posted ...that with this warm comes possible storms to follow...but with the warmer temps and warming of the ground and the higher sun angle as we head towards Spring...won't it be harder for snow to accumlate during the daylight hour's , unless its very heavy snow this time of year ..I would think a night time storm or late afternoon storm to start would be better...not to say its not possible..I notice alot of the long range forcast are talking about a snow or another mix sometime after President day...So would like your opinion on all that..Thanks..enjoy your yardwork...

BioPat said...

Wow, you still have quite a bit of snow up there in the north.  The snow, or rather ice pack that I saw in Boston yesterday was something else.  I'm used to seeing snow, particularly after last year, even with an icy crust layer of a few inches that we usually get in the melting process.  But to see those 4 foot walls of packed ice was just unbelievible.  Even with the snow removal efforts of the New Englanders, getting to a corner where you needed to make a left hand turn was simply treacherous! You couldn't see beyond the wall of ice until you were in the middle of the road, they said this year's snow has already put them in the top 4 of the worst winters, and they know it's not over yet! =-O =-O

somestars said...

WHOA Biopat!  You DROVE around in Boston?  =-O
That alone is treacherous, but add in snow (and a LOT of it) and you took your life your hands!  I drove around in Boston in the summer and was freaked out!
GLAD you're back in one piece!

BioPat said...

Somestars, I was going to drive and was advised by my cousin, who lives in sharon MA, that was just not a good idea.  I would say she advised very wisely.   My cousin drove, on Saturday we took a much more scenic route, but oh my that ice.  and yes, the drivers are still all crazy up there, and I thought NY drivers were bad!!! :-P :-P

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

Paul,

Sun angle is increasing daily and will be a major factor for accumulating snow if it falls lightly and during the day as we move forward.  For the Baltimore area sun angle won't be a major issue until about March 5 forward.  You continue to need a much colder air mass and stronger systems to generate accumulating snow during daylight hours much after March 5th.  It can and does happen, but it is more rare and harder for a light snow to stick with 30 or 32 degree highs after March 5.  After March 5 my hope with ligh to moderate systems is that they start around 4:00 pm and continue to noon as to negate sun angle    I have had accumulating snow with temps in the mid 20s at night into early April up here.  I recall about 7 years ago we had 3 inches of snow on roads etc around April 3rd.  As soon as the sun came out and temps hit 40 it was vaporized.  So March can be a SNOW month, but you need colder air masses and much more heavy snowfall rates the further you move into and through March.

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

Feb 20-28th is our next window.  It appears to be a much colder and much stormier period.  With warm and cold air nearby we could get a large snowfall.  Nothing is set in stone, ie. track of low, location, strength of high pressure, overrunning event etc.  I like our chances that week for at least some white, if not something much larger.  We have to wait and see, but the potential is there.   

Paul ( Owings Mills ) said...

Thanks Andy,,Thats what I sorta thought...So lets just hope for one or possible two big snow storms before April and then I will be ready for Spring....Today was nice though.... 8-)

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

HMMM................................


NWS STATE COLLEGE

<pre>Model data continues to show the weekend frontal zone becoming quasistationary
south of PA from the lower Ohio Valley eastward into southern mid-Atlc..and slowly
lifting/wavering back northward into early next week. The east-west oriented
frontal zone could set the stage for a moderate to heavy ovrrng precipitation event
next Monday or Tuesday /Feb 21-22
/ as one or more waves develop along the
boundary. Bl temperatures look marginal which could lead to wintry mix
ptypes.
</pre>

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

Nws forecast disco is interesting.  If we can get a strong high pressure we might be in business.  Still way out there to worry about details, but cold and stormy just in time for President's Day is popping up.

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

NWS BALT WASH:
<pre>Breezy northwest winds behind the front will advect colder and drier air
into the region for the weekend. During this time...hipres
building into the area should keep things dry. The next area-wide
chance of precipitation may be late sun or early next week depending on the
exact evolution/track of lopres developing over the Great Plains</pre>

Paul ( Owings Mills ) said...

Sounds GREATTTTTTT!!!!!! Andy.....I will keep checking back through out the week for updates...

Robert Wagoner said...

Simon and Garfunkel?? need a fact checker on that quote :)