Saturday, August 27, 2011

Isabel (2003): Dress Rehearsal 
Irene (2011): New Benchmark 


National Hurricane Center: 
4-8 foot surge expected from the Mid-Atlantic coast of VA/NC to the Delmarva, New Jersey and  New York City to Cape Cod.


NEW TEAM STATEMENT ON NORTHEAST IMPACTS IN PROGRESS 


3:30 PM EDT 8/27/11 | IMPORTANT MID-ATLANTIC TEAM STATEMENT ON HURRICANE IRENE |The Advisors of Foot's Forecast have significant concern that Hurricane Irene, currently in eastern North Carolina, may emerge in the southern Chesapeake Bay and travel more northward than is currently forecasted. This could result in the core of the storm’s energy and circulation along or just west of the Virginia peninsula in the next 12 hours. One of several resources we have used to present our hypothesis to you, our readers, is the current NOAA satellite imagery. As shown in this image capture below. 

This would concentrate a significant area of higher water, surge and wind in the Chesapeake Bay than is currently expected. Please visit our Tropical Zone in facebook or by scrolling below


8:00 AM EDT 8/27/2011: As of the 8:00 AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Irene has made landfall along the North Carolina coast as an 85-mph Category 1 hurricane, as seen in this radar loop from the Newport/Morehead City NWS. The latest updates from the National Hurricane Center are also posted with expanded team analysis in The Tropical Zone on facebook, and we have forecasters reporting on the Outer Banks and the Cape Fear area. The U.S. Team of Foot's Forecast is in position to keep you informed of the latest National Weather Service watches, warnings and public safety information statements from local and state governments. 


Since members of our team were flooded out of their homes in eight years ago in Hurricane Isabel, we have been preparing and rehearsing for just this type of event. So have many local and state governments, and a statement from Baltimore County, Maryland Executive Kevin Kamenetz summarized the potential threat this way: 
"If you experienced flooding with Isabel, you should be prepared to experience flooding with this as well."
Director Bill Read of the National Hurricane Center said yesterday on network news broadcasts that "there is no such thing as 'only a hurricane.' " With waves of 25-35 feet set to pound much of the Mid-Atlantic coastline, we have forecasters reporting on the storm in numerous locations, the links for which are directly to our facebook forecast pages. You do not have to be a member of facebook to access our forecasts, just click on the links to see the latest reports, or visit our U.S. Team page for access to all the zones covering this storm.

From our Tropical Team: For easy access to our team reports, we have enclosed an embedded feed to the Tropical Zone as shown below. Detailed storm analyses will also be posted in our Tropical Forecasts page. 









22 comments:

Elaina-Lee Dill said...

Forget the batteries, flashlights, water, and bread, I've got my rubber duckie and arm floaties, I'm ready :)

Julie Ray Smith said...

Andy can you provide an update where we are at now before the power goes out?

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

Julie Ray,

The storm continues to track further west.  Currently, it is moving more due north and the national hurricane center has adjusted the track slightly west.  I think 4-8 inches of rain for our region in general (less west more east within this range, ie: Baltimore, Harford, Cecil on the high end of this range, with isolated totals of 10 inches in heavier bands.  Wind gusts could exceed 70mph near the bay in the aforementioned counties with sustained winds at the height reaching 45-50mph.  The further west you go from the bay the lesser the winds and rain totals will be obviously.  Regardless, this is one heck of a storm coming this way.  Main threat is power outages and tree/roof damage from the wind for most.  Flooding in low laying areas a major threat.   Just use common sense and 'ENJOY" the storm.  Since there is nothing we can do about it, and wishing it away will not help, just take note of the wrath of nature and try to learn from it for future storms.    

ravensbbr said...

So far: lots of yawning, watching cloud bands go by, Netflix, and Captain Morgan. Did I mention we also sit at close to 1000 ft. elevation here in NE CC? Floods do happen...down there. But lightning does happen up here, maybe some later, but no sightings yet. Staying tuned...

...and I'm with Andy, bring on the '12 powderhounding season in about 3 months+  :-D

juleew said...

Andrew (enjoying your taunting volcano avatar),

If it's tracking farther west, does that increase our chance of tornado activity as well? =-O =-O

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

http://www.chart.state.md.us/video/video.asp?feed=e0002c470097007b00488436cf235d0a


http://www.ocbound.com/webcams/princess-royale-webcam/

A few great Ocean City live cams. 

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

Yes, more energy our way, more damage and severe weather =-O

juleew said...

Uh ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ... I was hoping that we were on the edge.

Might need to do some different preps, like putting meds and valuable papers in a suitcase ...

Jen O said...

So frustrated...that's all I'm going to say, lol

Amy said...

So... now that the hurricane is headed more west towards the southern end of the Chesapeake, should those of us living near the northern end be more concerned?  Everyone in my neighborhood seems to think we're fine because we didn't flood during Isabelle.  This seems to be worse than Isabelle. Where can I go to get a really solid idea of whether or not leaving my house is a good idea? If no evacuations are ordered does that mean I'm safe?

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

You are likely safe from tidal flooding, but as with any other low laying area when there is heavy rain, fresh water flooding is a concern.  I would keep my guard up, but with the low tide and winds shifting to the NW, you should be safe from tidal water flooding.  Isabelle has a much more inland track and pushed water up the Bay, this storm will not be the same in terms of the Bay surge.   

Amy said...

Thanks Andy!  Can't wait to hear about our winter predictions.  If only it were snow falling right now!

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

It has been a really busy week with perpetration for Irene, kind of funny now that the storm is bearing down on us I have a bit of time. I work for an organization that has supported Maryland for many years with mapping for emergency management.<span>  </span>With this storm coming we were asked to put out a generic application that the public could use to make good decisions.
Amy you can put in your address and turn on the hurricane storm surge layer or look at the elevated tide layer already turned on to see coastal flooding and the 100 year flood data is on by default. Hope it helps - http://www.mema.state.md.us/MEMA2/map2.html

Jen O said...

2.9 Quake in NY...What is going on with the weather/world...insane

ravensbbr said...

nice work, morph, looks like a good app

Amy said...

Very cool! Thanks!

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

Thanks - I work with a great team.

ravensbbr said...

so my brother calls from "Noo-Awlins" to tell me we've got it easy because it was over 100 degrees there today. Maybe...I hung up on him. *DONT_KNOW*

But actually, this one hasn't been as bad as forecasted...yet. Time will tell if the rhetoric matches the reality.

juleew said...

Ohhhhhhh  HERE comes the wind ...
Had pretty steady rainfall all evening.  Not heavy, but steady.
But now hearing the winds in the trees.

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

5.2 inches of rain and moderate to sometimes heavy windswept rain falling at 8:15 am.  Plenty of down limbs in the yard and tons of leaf littler.  Would not be surprised to end up with over 6 inches of rain when all is said and done.  Power flickered a little but we're still in business here!

ravensbbr said...

One more rain band to go sweeping back east, then sunshine and higher winds. Ground is saturated, wouldn't be surprised to see more trees go, although just branches and limbs so far, no trunks. All in all, not so bad here in NE CC.

ravensbbr said...

<span>
</span>
<span>"Isabel (2003): Dress Rehearsal </span>
<span>Irene (2011): New Benchmark"
</span>

...ehhhh? New benchmark for what, exactly? Power outages? It's not loss of life or flood damage, unless I'm not hearing about it...